WW LXIX - Battlestar WereWolf - GAME OVER CYLONS WIN!

[Greyroofoo]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

weaK, making stuff up! tryign to save ur ass!

if you're innocent then we know who to lynch next

[st.cronin]

Barkeep, just a note, I wasn't around at deadline TO move my vote. I likely would have argued forcefully for no lynch, however.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Barkeep, just a note, I wasn't around at deadline TO move my vote. I likely would have argued forcefully for no lynch, however.

I hear you. You'll notice that I didn't throw my vote in your direction as we've had the whole lynch/no lynch argument before. I think today proves the idea that we need a meaningful vote on Day 1, regardless of whether it's a lynch or not.

[Barkeep49]

So Render, are there any other players who look like clap? Just wondering...

[path12]

So, wait a minute. clap attacked Narcizo and then killed Pass? What happened to Narcizo? Is he all right?

[Greyroofoo]

Originally Posted by Greyroofoo

if you're innocent then we know who to lynch next

uh, disregard

unvote clap

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Lathum -- 6 -- Narcizo (345), St. Cronin (361), The Jackal (417), Passacaglia (399), Sonic Youth (420), path12 (444)

Barkeep, I understand the group you are looking at. This is the one I'm going to be looking at, especially after the run on Lathum. Pass is good (we know now) and I think that helps clear Narcizo, leaving four. For me, that means Cronin, Jackal, Sonic Youth, and Path12 and right now, I'll probably vote based on which one is the most dangerous wolf of the group until we hear more.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by path12

So, wait a minute. clap attacked Narcizo and then killed Pass? What happened to Narcizo? Is he all right?

He's not dead. Hopefully he'll give us more info when he comes around.

[PurdueBrad]

obviously unvote Claphamsa

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Barkeep, I understand the group you are looking at. This is the one I'm going to be looking at, especially after the run on Lathum. Pass is good (we know now) and I think that helps clear Narcizo, leaving four. For me, that means Cronin, Jackal, Sonic Youth, and Path12 and right now, I'll probably vote based on which one is the most dangerous wolf of the group until we hear more.

Why do you think it's more likely for the wolves to have piled onto lathum than something else?

[path12]

Originally Posted by RendeR

5 - No Lynch JeHeinz(133), The Jackal(137), Mauboy1(143), St. Cronin(147), Claphamsa(221)
5 - Claphamsa Passacaglia(140), Narcizo(181), lathum(214), Sonic Youth(220), barkeep49(229)
1 - Greyroofoo nfg22(142)
1 - Passacaglia PyrdueBrad(151)
1 - nfg22 Greyroofoo(155)
1 - Sonic Youth Path12(168)

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I am looking at this group: JeHeinz(133), The Jackal(137), Mauboy1(143), St. Cronin(147), Claphamsa(221)

They all were no lynches. With no late movement, and an unknown tiebreaker, I think it's quite probable we had wolves with no place to move their vote to save clap.

I think that nfg, Purdue, Grey and myself would have to be added to this list based on this logic, which I think is pretty sound.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by path12

I think that nfg, Purdue, Grey and myself would have to be added to this list based on this logic, which I think is pretty sound.

Why? You three could have moved to no lynch to help protect clap.

[PurdueBrad]

vote St. Cronin

I guess, for now, this is my vote. Cronin, take it partially as a compliment as I do fear you as a wolf. It was a coin toss between you and Path though, both of which are tough wolves.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Why do you think it's more likely for the wolves to have piled onto lathum than something else?

That's true, they could have spread their votes, particularly after the pile on. I guess I would say that I tend to look the obvious place first (people that voted off a human) and move from there.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Why? You three could have moved to no lynch to help protect clap.

I generally believe that wolves will not risk a late day 1 switch to save one of their own. Especially since as we see now clapham had some sort of suicide bomber ability.

[Greyroofoo]

vote the jackal

because he was a no lyncher on day 1 and voted for lathum

[st.cronin]

I don't think that Sonic Youth or Barkeep are necessarily cleared by their day 1 votes, either. I think they do get SOME leeway.

[path12]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I don't think that Sonic Youth or Barkeep are necessarily cleared by their day 1 votes, either. I think they do get SOME leeway.

What helps them in my opinion is that their day 1 votes were late when clapham was already getting some heat. It would have been a pretty ballsy move to vote your fellow wolf into either being one away or into a tie when you don't know what the tiebreak is. That said, Barkeep is good enough to do that. I don't know Sonic Youth that well yet.

If the wolves had some sort of ability to switch a vote behind the scenes it becomes more plausible, I guess.

[st.cronin]

By the way, I was in a Raptor last night. I didn't get a commendation, don't know how that's determined.

[Sonic Youth]

Originally Posted by RendeR

As the crowds dispurse the claxons begin to sound- CYLON ATTACK! vipers and Raptors take to the skies, explosions rock the ships and panic stricken refugees scream for safe keeping. The battle rages for about 10 minutes, but in the end they are driven off and none of the fleet is lost.

What I want to know is who was on that vessel.

[Sonic Youth]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

By the way, I was in a Raptor last night. I didn't get a commendation, don't know how that's determined.

And yet you didn't participate in the fighting off the Cylon?

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Sonic Youth

And yet you didn't participate in the fighting off the Cylon?

Not correct, I was right in the midst of the battle, fighting for the good guys. My pm was quite clear. Hence my wondering how the commendations were determined.

[Sonic Youth]

I can't answer that, as I don't know the answer? Unless your character isn't as good a flyer as mine

[Sonic Youth]

And that should be a fullstop '.' not a question mark.

[nfg22]

Ill go with GRF just to get some heat on one of the No Lynchers..

[st.cronin]

VOTE NFG22

[st.cronin]

Provisional vote.

[The Jackal]

THE FLYERS WON!!!

[mauchow]

Interesting turn of events. So, we lost two villagers and one wolf since I was last online. Okie dokie. I agree that we could easily look onto the list of people who voted No Lynch which includes me and I'm okay with that since I know I'm good.

Anyhow, I am on Cloud 9 now and I didn't see anything whatsoever.

As for my vote for tomorrow, I got nothing to go on except the list of No Lynchers, which I'll divulge into tomorrow cuz its too late to do some more digging.

[Sonic Youth]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Catching up, nothing to report from last night. I tried to board one of the Vipers, but somebody beat me to it, and I'm still on Peprika.

Where did you try and board one of the Vipers St.Cronin?

[st.cronin]

The Viper I tried to board night 1. Last night I boarded a Raptor.

[Sonic Youth]

As to why you didn't get a medal St.Cronin, it's probably down to your craft.

[Sonic Youth]

Thinking of the battle overnight, would this be what we would expect to see in an attempted night kill for a the Cylon's? Did they have any sort of special way of killing a victim?

What we also need to know is whether someone survived the night because of this.

[Narcizo]

Clap jumped out during the Cylon raid and attacked me hand to hand. Pass drove him off.

Looks like Pass saved me twice.

[Narcizo]

Sorry Lath. I guess I showed my inexperience in misreading your posts. If I'd have had time to think about it I might have worked out what your thinking was but I wouldn't count on it. Wish I'd kept my vote on Jackal.

[Narcizo]

I have to say that Sonic shifting from a no lynch to a vote on Clap really raises him a lot in my estimation. I know it doesn't fully clear him, yadda, yadda but at the time he made it the shift would really have put Clap in an unforeseeable amount of trouble. There's no way I see a rookie doing that unless he was coached. And then I still can't see any wolf doing it anyway. I'm also inclined to give Barkeep some leeway. You can argue that he really didn't have much choice at the time as he'd backed himself into a corner but I've got to believe that he would try to find some other way out. It nothing like clears him as much as it does Sonic though.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by path12

1) There was a conversion. Night 1 seems a bit of a stretch for something like that, but possible.
2) There was an attack and it was blocked. Nobody has come forward to say anything of the sort.
3) There was an attack and it failed for some other reason. Possibly the Cylon and the target need to be at the same place? Would lean towards keeping our location plans quiet.
4) There was no attack at all. This seems odd also, unless a deadline mixup.

Let's revisit.
1) still seems unlikely. A day one conversion is senseless for the wolves
2) I saw the results of the block. There, obviously, could be a random element to this, but it seems unlikely there was a block on day one.
3) This remains a possibility as it happens. I stated where I was and from what I can understand of what went down the Cylon raid meant I didn't move from my location until after I was attacked. It's possible that the raid is a device the Cylons have to freeze people in their current positions. Therefore I'm now against revealing where people have been. I still think that it's highly unlikely to be the case though as heinz pointed out there's a lot of locations and a diminishing number of targets.
4) Still remains a possibility. I fail to see why it is silly when there are a lot of cases of missed kill attempts that I can think of and at least two people have stated that they missed their night actions. If they could do so then why shouldn't a wolf as well. Makes me suspicious of anyone who didn't reveal a location yesterday (flying contrary to point 3).

And a new one
5) The Cylons just didn't get a kill attempt on day one for whatever reason.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Barkeep, I understand the group you are looking at. This is the one I'm going to be looking at, especially after the run on Lathum. Pass is good (we know now) and I think that helps clear Narcizo, leaving four. For me, that means Cronin, Jackal, Sonic Youth, and Path12 and right now, I'll probably vote based on which one is the most dangerous wolf of the group until we hear more.

I'm not sure how much you can deduce from voting patterns in a clear villager-villager run off. If you want to read anything into it you should be looking at people who voted for neither Lathum nor me, avoiding being caught voting for a villager either way. (heinz, NFG, Grey, BK) Then again that's what Clap did so I wouldn't imagine all the wolves would do the same.

[Sonic Youth]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I have to say that Sonic shifting from a no lynch to a vote on Clap really raises him a lot in my estimation. I know it doesn't fully clear him, yadda, yadda but at the time he made it the shift would really have put Clap in an unforeseeable amount of trouble. There's no way I see a rookie doing that unless he was coached. And then I still can't see any wolf doing it anyway. I'm also inclined to give Barkeep some leeway. You can argue that he really didn't have much choice at the time as he'd backed himself into a corner but I've got to believe that he would try to find some other way out. It nothing like clears him as much as it does Sonic though.

If I'd read as carefully like I was on day 2, I'd have voted for him again. He did exactly the same things as he did on day 1, but too many people where saying he might have been cleared. I'm not going that way again, and will chalk that up to a novice error. Some of the things he said were a bit odd too upon rereading. Easy to say with hindsight, but my vote went on that Pass seemed to be very sure, and so I gave him the benefit of the doubt. Unfortunately Lathum was looking like he was firing missiles willy-nilly which swayed me a little I guess.

What I want to know is why St.Cronin cast his vote on Lathum so early. It started the trend towards him. Narkle had cause I'd say, but St.Cronin?

He also had this unfortunate agreement with Clap:

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I'm amused by posts 334 and 335.

Originally Posted by claphamsa

as am i....

Which might mean nothing.

But this might:

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Sorry if this has been asked and answered, but do we know how the tie was broken?

Would a wolf ask this question? And we still don't know the answer to it.

I've been tempted to vote for him, but that question keeps popping into my thoughts when I consider.

Now, someone like NFG has been very silent(he did say had bought a new car which we can find out about ), and Barkeep(who has been mildly quiet) and Greyroofoo(who we haven't heard much from at all) didn't shake their vote from Pass. And not until after the vote when Clap ambushed Pass did he be proved that Pass was good and Clap was bad did have vindication, much like Lathum. I can't ask Pass how he knew though.

I'm going to set a vote after this and place it on one of the Pass voters as they really didn't give a reason why.

Vote Barkeep49.

[Narcizo]

I think it has to be blue or a seperate post Son.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by path12

VOTE NARCIZO

Originally Posted by path12

I don't like the vote, but that run on Lathum worries me.

Originally Posted by path12

I hear what you're saying, but ANY late run without some kind of defense makes me a bit nervous. I don't like what Lathum did, but for him to not be around and get run on always has a bit of a wolfish smell to it, though I do not believe you are a wolf yourself.

Originally Posted by path12

OK Pass, I'll trust you on this.

Originally Posted by path12

UNVOTE NARCIZO
VOTE LATHUM

This screams wolf to me. Path votes for me despite the fact that Pass has vouched for me. That seems odd from the outset. In the case of a vouch you accept it and then try to assertain if the person doing the vouch is trustworthy. Then he moots the idea that a run on Lathum is wolfish and then he lays out the "I'll trust you on this" card. That looks like a perfect bit of blame-placing in preparation for Lathum coming up villager.

Path you're going to have to cough up some information to get me to move this vote.

[Narcizo]

VOTE PATH

[Narcizo]

Just to point out that the plan to place blame worked as well, as Barkeep was ready to reveal and use a night kill on Pass over the result of the vote. I think this should act as a warning that people need to be wary of being trigger happy. At the moment any kill attempt is, statistically, likely to hit a human- no matter how "sure" you are about the need for it. The chances are you'll be aiding the Cylons without providing any voting patterns for us to work with. So, unless you're certain someone is a Cylon, don't be killing them. Particularly now that it seems that the vicious wolf is dead.

[Narcizo]

Current vote count.

Heinz - Barkeep (499)
st cronin - Purdue (513)
Jackal - Grey (516)
NFG - Cronin (526)
Barkeep - Sonic (539)
Path - Narcizo (542)

Not voted: Mauboy, Jackal, Heinz, NFG, Path

[Sonic Youth]

Originally Posted by path12

I have one theory but feel it's best to keep that under wraps for now.

What is your theory Path? Why was it that only you saw both Pass and Jeheinz?

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

I found, and cue the song "Age of Aquarius", the Jar of Aquarius, a clue to Earth. As far as I can tell, no other use.

I'm thinking, perhaps, that we might not want to up and reveal if we've found any clues at the moment. To be honest I doubt we're going to be able to find all the clues - it really seems like a race only the Cylons can win. While finding clues is all well and good (in that it probably prevents them getting them) I think we need to concentrate on killing all the Cylons before they get all the clues.

[Sonic Youth]

Reading back before the day 2 shenanigans regarding the vote. I'm going to give Barkeep the benefit as he at least but a reason up:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I don't like any of the three candidates with votes so I'm going to go with someone who seems to be playing more like his wolf self than villager self, I feel.

Vote Pass

Unvote Barkeep.
Vote Greyroofoo.

My reason? He came on 50 minutes before the deadline, and seemingly picked some at random? Maybe, but without a reason? And one of his few posts in the whole thread? A bit too quiet me thinks.

Narcizo, the colour of the vote isn't important, but bolding the vote bit is. It's in the rules. Which is what I have been doing.

[Narcizo]

"Most be bold and in a post by themselves".

Render later said that they could be in with another post as long as they are in blue.

[Sonic Youth]

Vote Greyroofoo.

[Narcizo]

Ok here's a hypothetical situation. What has me confused is why the wolves targeted me for a night kill rather than Pass, for example. Pass seems like the most likely target for a night kill from what I can see (which, possibly, is why he wasn't targeted of course). Anyway,

There's a run off between me and Lathum (partially my own fault I'll admit). Passa comes out with what, admittedly, looks like a curious vouch for me. I think the wolves, knowing both Lathum and I are villagers, send in a conditional kill order. If I get lynched Lathum is offed, if he gets lynched I get offed. Now this makes it clear that Passa was right when he vouched for me. But the manner in which he vouched for me looks very suspicious, especially as it resulted in the death of a villager. The wolves hope someone else connects the dots and claim that Passa was buying trust by vouching for me. Bang! They take out three villagers. The only fly in the ointment was that Passa blocked the kill attempt on me and saw that it was clap.

Who seems to be setting this hypothetical scenario up? I'd say Path, barkeep and st cronin. Barkeep's reaction looks like that of a human to me. Not so about st.cronin but Path's responses quoted above really look damning from where I'm sitting.