Werewolf CXXXII: THE CUBE (Game Over: Construction Workers win!)

[Danny]

Wow, lol

[The Jackal]

Yes, the other thread is free game.

[CrimsonFox]

Danny and bhlloy are you REALLY calling each other or what?!?

[The Jackal]

You find yourselves in a seemingly calm, white room.

Just as before there are three doors.

The first is red, has the letter P, and the number sequence: 7 4 9 6 6 5 6 5 3 4

The second is amber, has the letter V, and the number sequence: 2 6 4 6 7 5 4 3 6 6

The third is teal, has the letter L, and the number sequence: 1 5 3 5 8 6 4 4 2 2

[Danny]

Honestly, I don't think I'll figure out any of these

[Abe Sargent]

Awesome two for!

[bhlloy]

Doesn't appear to be much of note in the other thread. CF was a bit of a runaway.

Only curious thing is Autumn's late switch. Knowing he was a wolf he could easily have been in the know of what was going on in this thread.

[Danny]

Probably worth exploring for sure as I'm not sure why else Autumn would have done that late switch

[Schmidty]

Great results tonight!!

[Abe Sargent]

Okay, backup, am I misreading teh Jackal's firs tpost? It seems to indicate that another person NOT THE MOLE would be voted off, and then the mole is voted off. Is that, perhaps, a Duke or something. Let me quote the pertinent parts.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Well, leave it up to you to TIE THE VOTE AND LYNCH MY MOLE. What are the odds?!

That means the room vote will be going to the third, least popular choice!

My reading of this is that CF shouldn't have been voted off, because CF was in the running. Am I right?

Perhaps I need clarification:

The Jackal, can you clarify this in any way?

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

My reading of this is that CF shouldn't have been voted off, because CF was in the running. Am I right?

Perhaps I need clarification:

The Jackal, can you clarify this in any way?

Tie the vote = the room vote, not the lynch vote. In normal cases the jester's mole would have broken the room vote tie, but he was the lynch victim, so a different mechanism was used to decide the room.

CF was the mole and was lynched.

[Abe Sargent]

I got cha. I thought it was the lynch vote, my bad.

[Tyrith]

The other group took a different approach to D2 than I expected. No one ever really looked at the DV voters from day 1, it just went straight CF and stayed there. Interesting.

Honestly, I'm fairly suspicious of Zinto at this point - Autumn's vote-unvote on him smells a little bad to me. Dwardzala and mckerney have both voted for two confirmed non-wolves, although dward's vote could be figured out, to an extent, by lynching Zinto. And about half the game is pretty UTR right now, so we don't really have a shortage of random candidates.

[J23]

So it looks like maroon door was a safe choice. That and another set of doors to work with will hopefully make some sense of the pattern.

[Narcizo]

Good results - dunno what happened but it looks like a duking. Not sure I see any reason for the duke not to come out in that case. Our thread vote should have been dwardzala so that seems to be the most likely, unless someone got a strong gut read in the other thread - Autumn was acting pretty erratic there at the end. Shenanigans at the end of both votes makes me interested in looking at the time stamps in case the wolves were looking at the possibility of just one vote.

[Narcizo]

Day One

00:50 #82 - Autumn votes CrimsonFox (1)
02:09 #84 - Narcizo votes Zinto (1)
02:32 #86 - McKerney votes Darth Vilus (1)
09:48 #97 - Packer votes Autumn (1)
10:32 #100 - NTN votes Zinto (2)
12:18 #130 - Dwardzala votes Darth Vilus (2)

16:49 #177 - Darth Vilus votes J23 (1)
17:25 #181 - Schmidty votes Zinto (3)
17:29 #182 - Bhlloy votes CrimsonFox (2)
18:07 #192 - Tyrith votes CrimsonFox (3)
18:10 #193 - J23 votes Darth Vilus (3)
18:20 #194 - CrimsonFox votes Darth Vilus (4)

19:22 #199 - Abe Sargent votes Zinto (4)
19:36 #200 - Mauboy votes CrimsonFox (4)
19:42 #201 - Zinto votes Darth Vilus (5)
19:42 #202 - MrBug votes CrimsonFox (5)
20:50 #209 - Hoopsguy votes Darth Vilus (6)
21:48 #214 - Telle votes Darth Vilus (7)

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Good results - dunno what happened but it looks like a duking. Not sure I see any reason for the duke not to come out in that case. Our thread vote should have been dwardzala so that seems to be the most likely, unless someone got a strong gut read in the other thread - Autumn was acting pretty erratic there at the end. Shenanigans at the end of both votes makes me interested in looking at the time stamps in case the wolves were looking at the possibility of just one vote.

I think you are forgetting that two threads were split- CF got more votes than dward (7-6) and then one of his abilities was to take somebody with him (presumably the last person to vote on him/the person who put the "winning" vote on him?).

No duking involved unless I've missed something.

[Narcizo]

Ahh. Good point. Crimson was saying that he was suspicious of Autumn and blamed him for the votes yesterday which, basically, doomed him. Makes sense he'd want a bit of payback. So the duke doesn't want to come forward. Sorry about that.

Still, the wolves didn't know that that was going to happen, which is the important thing.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

You find yourselves in a seemingly calm, white room.

Just as before there are three doors.

The first is red, has the letter P, and the number sequence: 7 4 9 6 6 5 6 5 3 4

The second is amber, has the letter V, and the number sequence: 2 6 4 6 7 5 4 3 6 6

The third is teal, has the letter L, and the number sequence: 1 5 3 5 8 6 4 4 2 2

One question - Is Amber the color of your energy?

[Narcizo]

Day Two – Originals Thread



11:44 #267 Tyrith votes Dwardzala (1)
01:06 #305 Bhlloy votes ntndeacon (1)
03:58 #331 Narcizo votes MrBug (1)
08:53 #359 Danny votes ntndeacon (2)
09:20 #360 PackerFanatic votes Dwardzala (2)
12:07 #372 Zinto votes Schmidty (1)
14:49 #383 Narcizo unvotes MrBug (0)
14:49 #383 Narcizo votes Schmidty (2)
15:18 #384 J23 votes Dwardzala (3)
16:08 #390 CrimsonFox votes ntndeacon (3)
16:16 #391 Hoopsguy votes Dwardzala (4)



21:54 #441 Danny unvotes ntndeacon (2)
21:54 #441 Danny votes Dwardzala (5)
21:55 #442 Bhlloy unvotes ntndeacon (1)
21:55 #442 Bhlloy votes Dwardzala (6)
21:55 #443 CrimsonFox unvotes ntndeacon (0)
21:55 #443 CrimsonFix votes Dwardzala (7)
21:56 #446 Bhlloy unvotes dwardzala (6)
22:00 #453 Bhlloy votes ntndeacon (1)





Day Two – Splitter Thread



09:59 #44 mauboy votes CrimsonFox (1)
14:04 #49 Abe votes CrimsonFox (2)
14:58 #50 mckerney votes CrimsonFox (3)
15:56 #53 Autumn votes CrimsonFox (4)
16:25 #55 Schmidty votes Zinto (1)
16:40 #56 MrBug votes CrimsonFox (5)
17:50 #57 NTNDeacon votes Zinto (2)
18:37 #59 Dwardzala votes CrimsonFox (6)


20:00 #61 Autumn unvotes CrimsonFox (5)
20:00 #61 Autumn votes Zinto (3)
20:30 #64 Telle votes CrimsonFox (6)
21:57 #73 Autumn unvotes Zinto (2)
21:57 #73 Autumn votes CrimsonFox (7)

[Narcizo]

Day One

7 Darth Vilus - mckerney (86), dwardzala (130), J23 (193), CrimsonFox (194), Zinto (201), hoopsguy (209), Telle (214)
5 CrimsonFox - Autumn (82), bhlloy (182), Tyrith (192), mauboy1 (200), MrBug (202)
4 Zinto - Narcizo (84), ntndeacon (100), Schmidty (181), Abe Sargent (199)
1 Autumn - PackerFanatic (97)
1 J23 - Darth Vilus (177)

Day Two - Main Thread

6 dwardzala - Tyrith (267), PackerFanatic (360), J23 (384), hoopsguy (391), Danny (441), CrimsonFox (443)
2 Schmidty - Zinto (372), Narcizo (383)
1 ntndeacon - bhlloy (453)

Day Two - Splitter Thread

7 CrimsonFox - mauboy1 (44), Abe Sargent (49), mckerney (50), MrBug708 (56), dwardzala (59), Telle (64), Autumn (73)
2 Zinto - Schmidty (55), ntndeacon (57)

[Narcizo]

Dunno what's up with the bold there. It just randomly got assigned to the post by the browser somewhere along the line and I couldn't get rid of it.

[Narcizo]

My initial thoughts are that Autumn might be involved in some sort of save of Dwardzala. The timing is a bit exact but he could, presumably, get a PM telling him to switch back to Crimson at 21:56 to make sure Crimson has more votes than Dwardzala. As a wolf I don't really see a lot of point to him switching like that otherwise. Were he here I'm sure we would get the "Do you guys think I'm such a bad wolf" speech but I'm struggling to think of another reason for his movement. Obviously he wasn't expecting to be lynched yesterday but it looks pretty damning as it is.

So he switches to Zinto early on because he doesn't want to be seen as piling on a presumed villager but then Danny, Bhlloy and Crimson pull their switcheroo and Dwardza suddenly has more votes than Crimson. Now maybe the wolves know there's only going to be one lynch or maybe he's just playing the percentages so he moves his vote back to Crimson.

Unusually for me I actually think that there's a good chance Dwardza is a wolf. The only things that worries me is that when I'm feeling sure about these sorts of things I'm normally completely wrong. But if nothing else we get good information about the day two main thread by lynching him.

Vote Dwardzala

[Narcizo]

The more I think about it the more I can see this as a save attempt. If there's three or four wolves on the team then they're going to be desperate to save one of their numbers. Autumn's going to have to react quickly if he suddenly gets word that dwardzala's total has gone past Crimson's and might not necessarily have time to think things through properly and make what is, probably, the correct wolf move of staying where he is. Seems like it's react now and try damage control later. I think it fits very well.

[Narcizo]

Day Two – Combined


23:44 #267 Tyrith votes Dwardzala (1)
01:06 #305 Bhlloy votes ntndeacon (1)
03:58 #331 Narcizo votes MrBug (1)
08:53 #359 Danny votes ntndeacon (2)
09:20 #360 PackerFanatic votes Dwardzala (2)
09:59 #44 mauboy votes CrimsonFox (1)
12:07 #372 Zinto votes Schmidty (1)
14:04 #49 Abe votes CrimsonFox (2)
14:49 #383 Narcizo unvotes MrBug (0)
14:49 #383 Narcizo votes Schmidty (2)
14:58 #50 mckerney votes CrimsonFox (3)
15:18 #384 J23 votes Dwardzala (3)
15:56 #53 Autumn votes CrimsonFox (4)
16:08 #390 CrimsonFox votes ntndeacon (3)
16:16 #391 Hoopsguy votes Dwardzala (4)
16:25 #55 Schmidty votes Zinto (1)
16:40 #56 MrBug votes CrimsonFox (5)
17:50 #57 NTNDeacon votes Zinto (2)
18:37 #59 Dwardzala votes CrimsonFox (6)
20:00 #61 Autumn unvotes CrimsonFox (5)
20:00 #61 Autumn votes Zinto (3)
20:30 #64 Telle votes CrimsonFox (6)
21:54 #441 Danny unvotes ntndeacon (2)
21:54 #441 Danny votes Dwardzala (5)
21:55 #442 Bhlloy unvotes ntndeacon (1)
21:55 #442 Bhlloy votes Dwardzala (6)
21:55 #443 CrimsonFox unvotes ntndeacon (0)
21:55 #443 CrimsonFix votes Dwardzala (7)
21:56 #446 Bhlloy unvotes dwardzala (6)
21:57 #73 Autumn unvotes Zinto (2)
21:57 #73 Autumn votes CrimsonFox (7)
22:00 #453 Bhlloy votes ntndeacon (1)

[Narcizo]

It looks really clear like this. Autumn votes CrimsonFox to put him ahead of Dwardzala but then voting in our thread appears to stop with Dwarda having 4 votes, while Crimson continues to accumulate votes. So Autumn is feeling good about the situation but doesn't want to get caught piling onto a presumed villager. He switches to Zinto. Up to 21:50 all looks well for the scientists. Then Danny, Bhlloy and CrimsonFox all switch their votes to Dwardza. Autumn panics and shifts back to Crimson.

If Dwardza is a wolf then I bet nickel to dimes that either Zinto or Bhlloy are as well.

[dwardzala]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

My initial thoughts are that Autumn might be involved in some sort of save of Dwardzala. The timing is a bit exact but he could, presumably, get a PM telling him to switch back to Crimson at 21:56 to make sure Crimson has more votes than Dwardzala. As a wolf I don't really see a lot of point to him switching like that otherwise. Were he here I'm sure we would get the "Do you guys think I'm such a bad wolf" speech but I'm struggling to think of another reason for his movement. Obviously he wasn't expecting to be lynched yesterday but it looks pretty damning as it is.

So he switches to Zinto early on because he doesn't want to be seen as piling on a presumed villager but then Danny, Bhlloy and Crimson pull their switcheroo and Dwardza suddenly has more votes than Crimson. Now maybe the wolves know there's only going to be one lynch or maybe he's just playing the percentages so he moves his vote back to Crimson.

Unusually for me I actually think that there's a good chance Dwardza is a wolf. The only things that worries me is that when I'm feeling sure about these sorts of things I'm normally completely wrong. But if nothing else we get good information about the day two main thread by lynching him.

Vote Dwardzala

If you read our other thread, its clear that several of us wanted to put as many votes on the same person as possible to minimize the chance of one of us getting lynched, since we could vote only vote for people in the other room.

Also, I am not convinced we selected a correct door (unless I missed something in Jackal's description). It was a tie (possibly) between the two wrong doors and I think that's what caused Autumn's death.

I will vote later after reading the other thread.

[Narcizo]

I'm going to think about other directions now. The Lord knows that I have a tendency to get an idea on my head and fixate until it becomes the only possible explanation for something. The timing has to be very exact for my explanation to make sense, so we really don’t want this to turn into a runaway.

I'm a bit disappointed that the other thread weren't able to generate much in the way of voting record - I don't understand the logic of piling onto Crimson like they did. Ok our thread wound up a pretty big runaway in the end but that was only at the very end. Admittedly everything turned out pretty good as a result but still. Seems the other wolf team would be just as interested in a Crimson runaway as Autumn’s.

On our side of the thread the things that struck me was that Tyrith was being pretty vocal in defence of Schmidty and ntndeacon, while Packer seemed to be misstating the degree to which our voting was split. I didn't really think much about Tyrith at the time but I'd been interested in seeing if there's any connection between them. Obviously if dwardzala is a wolf then that would suggest Tyrith isn't on the same team but if dwardzala is a villager then that opens questions about Tyrith, ntn and schmidty to me. In fact dwardzala doesn't even have to be a villager for there to be questions as they could be different teams. With Packer it would be a way to influence our thread to lock in Dwardzala and ntndeacon as the candidates. This would be favourable if Packer and someone like Schmidty or MrBug were wolves. I still find MrBug’s multiple day one ”What’s going on?” posts a bit suspicious as well.

For vote analysis our strongest moves seems to be to vote dwardzala or Zinto, with ntn a third possibility – I think that they will give us the most information. However I do have a worry that, say, dwardazala and Zinto are scientists. We vote them out and then we’re left with very little by way of usable voting records. Sure it’s great that we’ve crippled or destroyed one team but we have very little to go off of in finding the other team.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by dwardzala

If you read our other thread, its clear that several of us wanted to put as many votes on the same person as possible to minimize the chance of one of us getting lynched, since we could vote only vote for people in the other room.

Well, that's a bit strange in itself to me. Admittedly I would argue that we had the most likely candidates for a lynch in our room had it been a normal vote but I don't understand why everyone there would assume that you're in the right and everyone try to ensure that someone in our thread gets lynched. This isn't aimed solely at you but the whole runaway thing. If Autumn hadn't been killed I would have found it very suspicious that he went along with that line of thinking - and I think he realised it was suspicious which is why he moved over to Zinto.

[Narcizo]

Ok reading through the other thread it looks like Abe was the main instigator in pushing for a unanimous vote, to the extent that he thought it was suspicious that Autumn broke from that. I kind of understand the reasoning you gave Abe but when there was the possibility that both threads would lead to seperate lynches weren't you worried that it was counter-productive to argue for a unanimous vote as that would wipe out the chance of your voting record being useful? And it kind of looks like Danny, Bhlloy and Crimson were on the same lines at the end. I can understand Crimson thinking it was in his best interests but Danny and Bhlloy?

[PackerFanatic]

It's hard to imagine another reason why Autumn would feel the need to move his vote so late if dward weren't a wolf. Plus he would be one of the only ones that would potentially know what was happening in our thread, and the timing is just a little too perfect. Regardless, this vote could certainly help clear up a few things (especially with all the votes he got yesterday in our thread)

VOTE DWARDZALA

[Abe Sargent]

Morning bitches

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Ok reading through the other thread it looks like Abe was the main instigator in pushing for a unanimous vote, to the extent that he thought it was suspicious that Autumn broke from that. I kind of understand the reasoning you gave Abe but when there was the possibility that both threads would lead to seperate lynches weren't you worried that it was counter-productive to argue for a unanimous vote as that would wipe out the chance of your voting record being useful? And it kind of looks like Danny, Bhlloy and Crimson were on the same lines at the end. I can understand Crimson thinking it was in his best interests but Danny and Bhlloy?

For those who weren't in our thread, I pushed for unanimity, and chastised Autumn late when he jumped from one candidate to the other. I honestly believed that we might have been in a situation where the highest vote getter, overall, was getting voted off. So, if the vote total was something like 8 in our room and 4 in yours for the top candidate, I felt there was good chance that our vote would win, and vice versa.

Since the vote records for Day Two will obviously be confused by being in just one room, I felt that the best thing to do was the vote off one of the people in the running on Day One, which were all eligible for us to vote for. I'd rather have very insightful vote analysis for Day One rather than very murky Day Two analysis at best. By default, when only half of the people can vote in one thread or the other, the vote analysis will be missing some stuff.

So, I pushed for it. I also didn't get a lot of resistance, which I think was good. I stand by it as a good idea, and I will continue to do so, that in that uncertain voting situation, is was the most important to get the best information for us that I could.

[Tyrith]

Narcizo, by your logic wouldn't the third wolf on the scientist team have to be in the main thread? It's the only way they would know the vote count out of our thread.

I don't really like dward's response today - it just seems flagrantly inaccurate, and my gut is telling it's wolfish instead of just wrong.

The only reason I'm not actually casting a vote for dward now is that I feel like if I do, this day is just going to turn into a dwardzala runaway and I'd rather wait a bit before triggering that, just to keep people talking.

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Narcizo, by your logic wouldn't the third wolf on the scientist team have to be in the main thread? It's the only way they would know the vote count out of our thread.

I think we have to assume that, yes. And based on the way Autumn voted, it makes sense. Otherwise why risk it at all and just throw the vote on CF like everyone else?

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

I think we have to assume that, yes. And based on the way Autumn voted, it makes sense. Otherwise why risk it at all and just throw the vote on CF like everyone else?

So why did he switch his vote to Zinto in the first place? It doesn't make any sense unless he was trying to set himself apart from Zinto, who could get waxed today after the other 2/3 of the Day 1 stuff turn up good (assuming, from his position, CF wasn't a wolf for the other team.) Or else attempting to avoid of a charge of being insufficiently active, although there was so little going on yesterday that I doubt that would have come up.

But if we go with explanation one, that would have to make the team Autumn, Zinto, dwardzala, plus someone in this thread...which doesn't really add up. But if it's him just trying to be active/screw with us, then he exposed himself pretty badly if he gets killed.

Of course, there's no way for him to have seen getting brutaled out of the game coming - it's not listed in the rules, and it's so unlikely from a math perspective even then that it wouldn't really come into consideration. This would mean we got super lucky here, and we need to take advantage of it.

[Telle]

Yeah, I'm following your logic, Tyrith. The Autumn + dwardzala wolf theory makes the most sense if Zinto is also a wolf.. but all three of them were in the same room so unless there were four wolves on that team, there'd be nobody to let them know that Autumn needed to move his vote back to CF.

[Abe Sargent]

Who just got a new writing gig? This guy!

[mauchow]

Autumns vote switch got me thinking too. I was going to mention it last night after the results but I was already in bed by the time that rolled around. I'm all for voting dwardz today unless something completely incriminating comes up which is doubtful as we were in seperate rooms and couldn't defend anything (which was weird but cool).

Voting records are going to be difficult to dissect since people could have good wolf voting records and still be a wolf from the other team. So if today we went the route of a landslide vote and didn't nail a wolf I don't think we're much worse off. I think this plan is as good as we are going to get.

vote dwardz

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by Telle

Yeah, I'm following your logic, Tyrith. The Autumn + dwardzala wolf theory makes the most sense if Zinto is also a wolf.. but all three of them were in the same room so unless there were four wolves on that team, there'd be nobody to let them know that Autumn needed to move his vote back to CF.

Zinto was in our room - so that scenario could actually work.

[PackerFanatic]

Plus, Zinto voted for Schmidty yesterday - at the time, he was introducing a fourth candidate rather than voting on dward or ntn (who had 2 votes a piece) or Bug (who had 1). It was still early in the day and his vote never moved.

[Tyrith]

Autumn/Zinto/dwardzala doesn't work, because that team would have no independent knowledge of the vote scenario in the main room to know that Autumn needed to move his vote back. Autumn/dwardzala/main room member works if Autumn was being tricky with his Zinto vote and then got torched.

Autumn's vote makes a lot of sense to me from a villager perspective - it's always possible he was just stirring stuff up independent of Zinto's and dward's allegiance to just seem active.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

Plus, Zinto voted for Schmidty yesterday - at the time, he was introducing a fourth candidate rather than voting on dward or ntn (who had 2 votes a piece) or Bug (who had 1). It was still early in the day and his vote never moved.

Oh shoot.. you're right. Nevermind!

[Tyrith]

Oh, garbage, you're right. I don't know why I had this so backwards, but you mentioning the Schmidty vote makes it make sense to me again. Yeah, Autumn/dward/Zinto does work. In that case, dward needs to die for sure; the chance we get two wolves here is just too good to pass up.

VOTE DWARDZALA

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Autumn/Zinto/dwardzala doesn't work, because that team would have no independent knowledge of the vote scenario in the main room to know that Autumn needed to move his vote back.

Isn't that what Zinto is? He was the only one from that group in the main room. I have to think Autumn got some kind of knowledge from the main room that pushed that vote. Maybe not Zinto, but someone.

[PackerFanatic]

Okay good, glad we got that straightened out

[Tyrith]

Yeah, that was me getting confused/being a moron there. Autumn/dward/Zinto being the scientists constructs a scenario that makes sense and them getting destroyed by some pretty terrible luck - if Zinto is the first one to die out of that group, Autumn would have at least a little bit of cover fire.

[Telle]

Only problem now is we could have a runaway vote on dwardzala. Anybody have a theory on anyone else? Or should we put up Zinto too just so that we have two candidates?

[Tyrith]

I don't see a reason to put up a second candidate for the sake of having a second candidate; it won't actually go anywhere. The way this goes down is at least a referendum on me and Narcizo, among others.

Now, if someone can come up with another theory that has a reasonable chance of pointing us at a wolf or two, I'm definitely willing to listen, and that could be a legitimate second candidate.