WW CXLVIII - Ancient Infection - EVIL WINS!

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

vote Chief Rum

Seems like a slam dunk but that itself can be troublesome as nothing is ever that easy on day two, is it?

Was going to look at voting a Julio voter. Not sure if Chief is on that list.

Sorry that I missed the deadlines but I was exhausted (very little sleep last night, damn insomnia) and fell asleep. There seemed to be a lot of changing after I laid down.

I think it's pretty straightforward, unless you are suggesting a wolf would fake reveal 5 minutes after night 1

[bhlloy]

oh, and obviously

vote CR

[Zinto]

Well....


Vote CR

[Zinto]

There is pretty much a zero percent chance that bhlloy is a wolf so now is not the time to get paranoid about his reveal. It would make no sense with how day one played out.

[Zinto]

There is nightfall, it locks in your votes so make sure you are ready with your vote, and I will go ahead and do so since I am ready...

Vote nightfall

[KWhit]

Great!

Vote Chief Rum

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

I think it's pretty straightforward, unless you are suggesting a wolf would fake reveal 5 minutes after night 1

Didn't read the rules well enough yet to know. Is there a situation where the person being caught would know who caught them? If so, that would make perfect sense for a quick reveal; hoping to beat the other player to the punch. Granted thiscould work both ways (where the person doing the scanning would want the drop on the reveal).

Waiting until part of the way through the day would be the best route for a legit reveal (if there is not a mechanic to allow the person to know they were caught). Give the person that you caught a chance to post a little to see what else you can gain from that before outing them.

If pretty much makes day two completely useless as far as analyzing goes.

[EagleFan]

vote nightfall


Again, wish he had given Chief a little slack first, to see if he could have led us anywhere.

[LoneStarGirl]

I agree that day two is a wash and we should push on to day three

[LoneStarGirl]

Vote nightfall

[Simbo Klice]

I'd also vote nay on the reveal of the good result- it would probably make them a bigger night kill target and they could be roled.

Let's see- with 19 players left, 3 invulnerable to being infected, and the two transformed of course not infecting themselves. that's 3/14 or 21.4% of a bite successfully occuring. Add the 5.5% chance that they were randomly cured by the doctor immediately thereafter and we're at 26.9%. Add in the 11% chance that the Nurses found the bitten so the doctor will be able to cure them before the kill, we're at 37.9%. Finally, there's a 7.1% chance that the Nurses didn't find anything and that the doctor will still randomly succeed at curing the infected before they make another kill, bringing the strictly statistical probability of there being no nightkill tomorrow to around 45%. Very not bad.

[Simbo Klice]

Originally Posted by Simbo Klice

I'd also vote nay on the reveal of the good result- it would probably make them a bigger night kill target and they could be roled.

Let's see- with 19 players left, 3 invulnerable to being infected, and the two transformed of course not infecting themselves. that's 3/14 or 21.4% of a bite not successfully occuring. Add the 5.5% chance that they were randomly cured by the doctor immediately thereafter and we're at 26.9%. Add in the 11% chance that the Nurses found the bitten so the doctor will be able to cure them before the kill, we're at 37.9%. Finally, there's a 7.1% chance that the Nurses didn't find anything and that the doctor will still randomly succeed at curing the infected before they make another kill, bringing the strictly statistical probability of there being no nightkill tomorrow to around 45%. Very not bad.

EBWOP

Vote Nightfall

[bhlloy]

FWIW, I agree we should at least let CR show up before locking in nightfall.

I don't see any way in the rules that he can't be what I scanned him as, but I'd at least hear him out.

[Danny]

Well, this is good and bad.

[Danny]

vote chief rum
vote nightfall

Autumn was very clear about no hidden mechanics. This is a sure thing, he doesnt need to check in

[bhlloy]

And looking back EF, you may be right. Aggressively going after CR and seeing if I could shake anything useful out of him rather than a quick reveal might have been the way to go for maximum usefulness. I may have gotten a little carried away.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

And looking back EF, you may be right. Aggressively going after CR and seeing if I could shake anything useful out of him rather than a quick reveal might have been the way to go for maximum usefulness. I may have gotten a little carried away.

It's understandable. I am the same way which is why my best role is a vanilla villager

[LoneStarGirl]

I am out for the night. I want to remind y'all that I'm out of pocket most the day. I don't think it matters since my vote is in, but I know how some of y'all get if a persons absent for too long

[cougarfreak]

I can't bold from my phone, but

Vote CR.

[Danny]

I voted a wolf on day 1

[bhlloy]

Learning experience. I think the only other time I actually hit a wolf as the seer I came into the thread all triumphant only to be informed that the wolves had won the game anyway

[Danny]

Chief, I will weep for you

[The Jackal]

Nice one, bhlloy.

VOTE CR
VOTE NIGHTFALL

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by cougarfreak

I can't bold from my phone, but

Vote CR.

You could manually type [ b ] and [ /b ] without the spaces between the brackets.

[cougarfreak]

Here:

Vote CR
Vote Nightfall

[britrock88]

Vote CR
Vote nightfall

See you tomorrow night.

[Danny]

I don't know if I want to keep playing now

[cougarfreak]

Originally Posted by britrock88

You could manually type [ b ] and [ /b ] without the spaces between the brackets.

Just got out of that tapatalk and onto the net to bold.

[CrimsonFox]

vote nightfall

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Danny

I don't know if I want to keep playing now

Aren't you going to vote everyone again on day two, only settling on CR at the end?

Stay committed...

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Danny

I voted a wolf on day 1

You voted every roled villager on day one. Hmm, that's not a good track record.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

You voted every roled villager on day one. Hmm, that's not a good track record.

But I voted every wolf too!

[Danny]

Well maybe I didnt vote LSG, Darth or Raiders

[GoldenEagle]

I am not real excited about this reveal. I am not saying there should not have been a reveal today, but voting history will be useless now. I would have preferred to see the reveal closer to deadline.

Anyway, I am not down for voting for nightfall until we at least give CR sometime to speak.

[JAG]

Looking at the rules, bhlloy could have scanned any of five evil characters, the starting four and an infected if they bit CR and he was vanilla. The Transformed bite takes place before the scan in the order of operations.

[Danny]

Yeah in retrospect he shouldnt have revealed, especially since he is not a common early night kill.

[Danny]

Cause lets say Chief is tranformed, doesnt the infected just become the transformed then?

[Chief Rum]

This should be fun.

[mauchow]

vote CR

[bhlloy]

meh, I still disagree. The longer the game goes on, the more chance the professors scans don't hit the mummy or transformed. I maybe revealed a little too soon, but it's a no brainer to do it today

[Simbo Klice]

Originally Posted by JAG

Looking at the rules, bhlloy could have scanned any of five evil characters, the starting four and an infected if they bit CR and he was vanilla. The Transformed bite takes place before the scan in the order of operations.

Very true, but perhaps something that shouldn't have been mentioned before we heard from CR.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Danny

Cause lets say Chief is tranformed, doesnt the infected just become the transformed then?

At least there's a chance there is no infected right now. A chance that is much less in future days. Without trying to get defensive, I don't see how it's a better play to wait for there to be more infected. If I'm reading the rules right if there's no infected the wolves lose one transformed permanently, which is obviously huge

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Danny

Cause lets say Chief is tranformed, doesnt the infected just become the transformed then?

Yes, but there might not be an infected now and even if that happens, it does get rid of an infected and prevent them from making a bite that night.

[Danny]

true, but why chief? WHY?????

[Danny]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

At least there's a chance there is no infected right now. A chance that is much less in future days. Without trying to get defensive, I don't see how it's a better play to wait for there to be more infected. If I'm reading the rules right if there's no infected the wolves lose one transformed permanently, which is obviously huge

Yeah, you are right. Its good to reveal, though maybe later after you see where his vote goes at least.

[Zinto]

Do you have a crush on Chief, Danny?

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Danny

Yeah, you are right. Its good to reveal, though maybe later after you see where his vote goes at least.

Agreed

[Danny]

This isn't some school girl crush, this is real!

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

true, but why chief? WHY?????

I'm cannot help who I am. It takes nothing away from how I feel, though. Try not to judge me too harshly.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

This should be fun.

Not the response I expected. Wouldn't want to keep you from your fun:

Vote Nightfall

Worst case he's the cultist and bhlloy is probably (though not definitely) dead tonight.