World Politics

[Edward64]

More info that is the mess South Korea. There's a couple clips in article (could not embed) of the soldiers. The troops looked kinda disorganized to me, I suspect they were also wondering WTF.

There had to be some military leaders involved in this attempted coup.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/03/w...ly-troops.html

Mr. Kim offered the most detailed official account yet of the military’s incursion. About 230 troops were flown by helicopter onto the assembly grounds, and roughly 50 others jumped fences to gain entry, he said. Mr. Kim played closed-circuit footage of soldiers entering the compound, saying that all such video would soon be made public.

Many South Koreans saw the military’s storming of the assembly as an attempt to arrest lawmakers, who are empowered by the Constitution to nullify a president’s declaration of martial law.

Legislative aides from both major parties barricaded entrances to the building with chairs and desks, apparently to give lawmakers time to pass such a resolution. Troops smashed windows, and some aides and protesters sprayed them with fire extinguishers, footage broadcast by the domestic news media showed.

Hours after Mr. Yoon’s decree late Tuesday night, the 300-member assembly passed the resolution to rescind martial law by a vote of 190-0. The military soon retreated from the compound

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

He is not up for election until 2027. This means he is going to have a Prime Minster of the opposing party, and they are going to try to do everything they can to cut him off at the knees. The likely new Prime Minister is a 28 year old nut job. The guy swears he will not accept a coalition government, which means if his party doesn't win a 50% majority, then Macron could still form a government with his party and the far left party. They did not win 50% today, and there is still a good chance they won't.

France no-confidence vote: Prime Minister Michel Barnier ousted, deepening country’s crisis | CNN

[JPhillips]

Crazy how fast the Syrian government is collapsing. The opposition took Hama and are off to Homs.

[JPhillips]

Damn. There are reports that Homs has already been abandoned by Assad forces and may fall tomorrow.

[GrantDawg]

There is definitely something weird that happened there. Just the sudden surge after the rebels had been held down for so long.

[JPhillips]

I don't know enough to know whether this is a net positive or negative, but I guess Russia's so bogged down in Ukraine that they can't be Syria's mercenaries anymore.

[PilotMan]

Another part is that Hamas has been hammered and unable to help the Syrian army either.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Another part is that Hamas has been hammered and unable to help the Syrian army either.

That makes a lot of sense as well. With most of Assad's support coming from Russia and Iran, having most of that support either gone or occupied with other interest does explain it.

[JPhillips]

I was reading that the opposition has gotten much more professional with weaponry and tactics. They apparently have quite a drone program going.

[Edward64]

I've been reading the rebel group is more on the side of Islamic extremism but per below, there is hope they are more practical.

Syrian Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) Leader Abu Mohammed al-Joulani to CNN:

This regime (Assad) is dead; we will establish a government based on a people’s council.

No one has the right to erase another group. These sects have coexisted in this region for hundreds of years, and no… pic.twitter.com/SzDDBlOMM4

— Clash Report (@clashreport) December 6, 2024

Unless Russia and/or Iran is willing to put troops on the ground to fight, I'm betting Assad is done. Hezbollah has been emasculated so no help from them.

I wonder what the situation is like in Damascus, can people withdraw money from banks, are grocery stores bare, oil & other prices skyrocketing up, people not showing up for work etc.? If I was a Syrian regular Joe in Damascus, I'd be loading up my Camry hybrid and getting the heck out of dodge.

[GrantDawg]

I wonder how common Camry Hybrids are in Syria? I know you see a lot of small Toyota trucks there.

[GrantDawg]

In other "world on fire" news. Romania's Supreme Court has thrown out the results of the first round elections after evidence of a large Russian influence campaign that helped the largest vote getter in that election. The election is to be redone without him on the ballot.

[Thomkal]

Man imagine a Supreme Court who wasn't okay with Russian interference in their elections...

[Edward64]

Looking forward to some Wolf Warrior action (or diplomacy).

The article said it was a Chinese "fishing vessel" which sounds weird to me. Wouldn't be surprised if there's more to the story.

Chinese fishing vessel under control of alleged pirates off Somali coast, EU naval force says | CNN

A Chinese fishing vessel off the coast of Somalia has come under the control of alleged pirates, a European Union anti-piracy force operating in the area said Thursday.

The ship, with up to 18 crew members, had been taken over by the suspected pirates, some of whom were armed with AK-47s and machine guns, the European Union Naval Force Operation Atalanta said in a statement.

It classified the incident as a robbery at sea and said none of the crew had been injured.

The force had responded to an alert from police in Somalia’s semi-autonomous northeastern Puntland region that a Chinese ship off the coast had allegedly been hijacked, its statement said.

[NobodyHere]

A fishing vessel wouldn't be that unreasonable.

https://usa.oceana.org/wp-content/up...heet_PRINT.pdf

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I wonder how common Camry Hybrids are in Syria? I know you see a lot of small Toyota trucks there.

Googled on it, seems like Hyundai's are the popular brand.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

A fishing vessel wouldn't be that unreasonable.

https://usa.oceana.org/wp-content/up...heet_PRINT.pdf

Boring.

I want to believe it was some sort of intelligence gathering vessel and we're going to see their Wolf Warriors in action!

[GrantDawg]

Iran is pulling all its military commanders and personnel from Syria. Surest sign that they have given up on Syria.

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[JPhillips]

Sounds like the S. Korean President went full Costanza about the martial law decree. Was that wrong? Should I not have done that?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Iran is pulling all its military commanders and personnel from Syria. Surest sign that they have given up on Syria.

I read somewhere that the big rebel group is backed by Turkiye and that she is the big winner and Russia/Iran are the losers. Russia also has a port in Syria which Russia probably does not want to give up.

I'd toss in Jordan & Iraq as the secondary loser (with Israel a little behind them) as they'll have a relatively unknown and more confident extremist group bordering them.

Interesting to speculate the geopolitical impact. My best guess is when Assad falls ...

• Different groups will carve up Syria and it'll be a mess for a long time
• Jordan will get closer to the US
• Israel will buffer up the Golan Heights and maybe, just maybe do more in Lebanon after the 60-day ceasefire expires
• Western countries will not be as willing to take in refugees/asylees
• Maybe, Iraq won't be as eager to remove all US troops/advisors now
• Good to see Russia with their own version of (bugging out of Afghanistan in a hurry) play out
• How weakened is Iran with Hezbollah & Syrian proxies hurt, some of their military advisors killed by Israel etc. Personally, if I was Iran, I'd just finish the bomb and let the repercussions play out
• The plight of regular Palestinians will take a backseat to the new turmoil & threats
• Assad will end up in a neutral'ish Arab country with his billions. Can't imagine him living rest of his life in Russia or Iran

It'll suck a lot to be a regular Syrian for the next several years.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Sounds like the S. Korean President went full Costanza about the martial law decree. Was that wrong? Should I not have done that?

And it apparently worked. The impeachment vote failed.

I expect this is going to cause chaos in SK for the foreseeable future.

[RainMaker]

I don't like Assad but the new group is just a rebranded Al-Qaeda. Pretty bad for the region.

[JPhillips]

Syrian TV is saying that Assad has fled the country.

[GrantDawg]

Looks like Assad is done. At least for now.

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[Lathum]

Probably crashing in Tulsi Gabbard guest room.

[Edward64]

Nice. Hope they were able to take some Iranian diplomat hostages.

Angry Syrians stormed the Iranian Embassy in Damascus this morning after Syrian rebels claimed the city and declared an end to the Assad regime.

Protesters tore down posters of the late Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani that adorned the embassy, while offices inside the building were ransacked, as seen in video published by the Associated Press.

[NobodyHere]

There is speculation on the internet that Assad plane has crashed.

And I always assume the internet is correct.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I don't like Assad but the new group is just a rebranded Al-Qaeda. Pretty bad for the region.

This is my fear too. If we've learned anything from the Iraq War it's to have a good plan for what happens after a regime is toppled.

The rebel leadership is saying the right things right now. For example they are saying they will respect all faiths, but who knows what they'll be saying if they get full control of the country.

[Edward64]

There are multiple rebel groups. I think the "more friendly" one is in Damascus and has the PM in custody. Would not be surprised if the rebel groups fight over the spoils.

[RainMaker]

So does this still stand now that he's an ally?

We remain committed to bringing leading AQS figures in HTS to justice. #Syria pic.twitter.com/R8evqffWum

— U.S. Embassy Syria (@USEmbassySyria) May 15, 2017

[Atocep]

Trump calls for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine after meeting with Zelensky. This is going to be interesting to watch as Russia's economy is on the verge of total collapse. A ruble is worth less than a penny right now and the Kremlin has said things are going to get worse. It turns out that printing money and shifting money toward your military to pay for the war while having massive interest rates and isolating yourself from the world economy isn't sustainable.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

So does this still stand now that he's an ally?

Maybe? He has never been claimed as an ally, but more an enemy of our enemy, but his organization left Al-qaeda years ago and now says they have no desire to war with the west. He would be far from the only "reformed" terrorist the US has dealt with.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Maybe? He has never been claimed as an ally, but more an enemy of our enemy, but his organization left Al-qaeda years ago and now says they have no desire to war with the west. He would be far from the only "reformed" terrorist the US has dealt with.

Nothing really surprises me with foreign policy but the way we just don't care about dead Americans as long as oil companies get fed and Israel gets land is disturbing. Just shows how little the government cares about the troops.

Anyway, he's in Damascus and the tip page is still up if anyone wants a cool $10m.

https://rewardsforjustice.net/reward...ad-al-jawlani/

[GrantDawg]

You only make peace with your enemies.

[RainMaker]

I don't think it's peace as much as being Israel's bitch.

[Edward64]

More horrendous stories going to come out soon.

Tears of joy and sadness as ‘disappeared’ Syrians emerge from Assad’s prisons | Syria | The Guardian




Some good news from the leader of biggest rebel group, maybe not as extreme as some feared

Definitely does not like Iran

Singling Iran out appears to be a message to Tehran’s theocracy – that their meddling is over, their easy land access to their mega proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon is over, their support for Syrian Hezbollah is over, and gone too is the home they once had for Iran’s weapons stockpiles.

Somewhat media savy?

Jolani has been at pains on his race to Damascus to make sure US President Joe Biden and even President-elect Donald Trump know his intent. It is no coincidence that he picked a US TV network, CNN, and not an Arab one, for a key interview in the days before he ousted Assad, claiming he had parted company from other jihadists because of their brutal tactics.

Not a fan of drugs.

Jolani’s message was also tuned for regional powers he’ll need to keep onside, promising to clean shop. “Syria is being purified,” he said, referring to the country’s regional reputation as a narco-state, saying Assad’s Syria had “become the world’s leading source of Captagon,” an amphetamine-type drug, and criminality through the region.

[Edward64]

Something tells me Israel is taking advantage of the transition/confusion right now. Heck, if I was the captain of one of those ships, I would have bugged out with my & crew's families to somewhere else.

Live updates: Syrians celebrate fall of Assad as Israel is accused of land grab | CNN

Israel’s defense minister on Tuesday said that the Israeli Navy has destroyed Syria’s naval fleet.

“The navy operated last night to destroy the Syrian fleet, and it was a great success,” Israel Katz said during a visit to the Haifa naval base.

An AFP photographer captured large-scale destruction of military vessels at the Syrian naval base in Latakia in western Syria.

“The IDF has been operating in Syria over the past few days to target and destroy strategic capabilities that pose a threat to the State of Israel,” Katz said.

Other pics

[Edward64]

South Korea PM has been impeached. Their constitutional court has to confirm (similar to our Senate confirming impeachment?) but he vows to fight on.

Haven't read anything about it but I still want to know who from the government, military etc. was involved with the fiasco.

reuters.com

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol vowed on Saturday to fight for his political future after he was impeached in a second vote by the opposition-led parliament over his short-lived attempt to impose martial law, a move that had shocked the nation.

The Constitutional Court will decide whether to remove Yoon sometime in the next six months. If he is removed from office, a snap election will be called.

Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, who was appointed by Yoon, became acting president while Yoon remains in office but with his presidential powers suspended halfway through his five-year term.

The impeachment motion was carried as at least 12 members of Yoon's People Power Party joined the opposition parties, which control 192 seats in the 300-member national assembly, clearing the two-thirds threshold needed for impeachment.

The number of lawmakers supporting impeachment was 204, with 85 against, three abstentions and eight invalid ballots.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Edward64

South Korea PM has been impeached. Their constitutional court has to confirm (similar to our Senate confirming impeachment?) but he vows to fight on.

Haven't read anything about it but I still want to know who from the government, military etc. was involved with the fiasco.

reuters.com

The Defense Minister resign shortly after the failure claiming it was his idea, and so did the NSA. Most likely scapegoats to try to save the Presidency, but they were definitely involved.

[flere-imsaho]

Consequences for illegal actions while in office? What kind of crazy land is this?

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Consequences for illegal actions while in office? What kind of crazy land is this?

What I found fascinating is the police force was investigating him treason even when he was in office. A president in South Korea is not immune from legal prosecution even while in office.

[Edward64]

Some hopeful signs in Syria. We know he is anti-Iran, anti-Russia, anti-Hezbollah, neutral'ish towards Israel, and leans towards Turkiye. I don't know what the US next steps/options are but US definitely has more options to explore now than before.

... and I sure hope Trump doesn't go shooting off his mouth during this transitionary period, and making enemies when he doesn't need to. In fact, it'd be great if Trump invited him to Mar-a-Lago and/or his inauguration, fascinating to see how that plays out

Access Denied

The U.S. is set to remove the $10 million bounty it had placed on de facto Syrian leader, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, formerly known by his nom de guerre, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani. Sharaa is the head of rebel group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), which led the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad earlier this month.

I like "pragmatic and moderate". The Syrian people have suffered long enough and sure hope he doesn't go all extreme.

Leaf said Sharaa himself came across as “pragmatic.”

“We’ve been hearing this for some time, some very pragmatic and moderate statements on various issues, from women’s rights to protection of, you know, equal rights for all communities, etc,” Leaf told reporters. “Again, it was a good first meeting. We will judge by deeds, not just by words. Deeds are the critical thing.”

[JPhillips]

The President of South Korea is going to be arrested in the next couple of hours.

[AlexB]

Or maybe not… Who had South Korea being the batshit crazy one for a little while?

[GrantDawg]

Justin Trudeau is said to be resigning tomorrow. Lots of upheaval going on with our neighbors up north before they become the 51st state.

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[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Justin Trudeau is said to be resigning tomorrow. Lots of upheaval going on with our neighbors up north before they become the 51st state.

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Wonder who his replacement will be? I suspect Canada will move more to the conservative side, question is how much.

Personally, would prefer ...

Greenland > Canada

[Edward64]

Congrats to Lebanon's new President. Wish him the best and hope he survives his term. I'm not that optimistic though, he was army chief during Hezbollah's heyday so who knows.

[url="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/1/9/lebanon-parliament-elects-army-chief-joseph-aoun-as-president" [/url]

Lebanon’s army chief Joseph Aoun has been elected as the country’s president, ending a power vacuum that lasted for more than two years.

“This country needs billions of dollars of reconstruction money and that money won’t come in until Lebanon elects a president that the international community believes is reform minded, outside what they believe is a corrupt political class,” she said.

In his acceptance speech, Aoun had focused on “building” the nation and its army while sending the message that nobody had been “defeated”.

Aoun was widely seen as the preferred pick of the United States, as well as regional heavyweight Saudi Arabia.

[Edward64]

Seems somewhat unseemly to put a reward out for a foreign President that has not really threatened the US (other than oil politics).

The US had plenty of opportunities to strongly support Maduro/Chavez opposition but didn't go far enough. So, guess this is the cheap, low risk version. We did send in troops to get Noreiga so there's precedence.

I'd still prefer Greenland, but Venezuela seems to be an obvious boogey man for Trump to somehow remove (e.g. relatively isolated, no nukes, lots of oil, fair number of pop ready to kick out Maduro etc.)

US announces $25m reward for arrest of Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro

The US has announced an increased $25m (£20.4m) reward for information leading to the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on the day he was sworn in for a third six-year term in office.

The inauguration ceremony was overshadowed by recrimination from the international community and Venezuelan opposition leaders.

Rewards have also been offered for information leading to the arrest and or conviction of Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello. A new reward of up to $15m for Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino has also been offered.

[Edward64]

More fun & games in South Korea but good they got him now.

Yoon Suk Yeol has become South Korea's first sitting president to be arrested after investigators scaled barricades and cut through barbed wire to take him into custody.

Yoon, 64, is being investigated on charges of insurrection for a failed martial law order on 3 December that plunged the country into turmoil.

He has also been impeached by parliament and suspended - but will only be removed from office if the Constitutional Court upholds the impeachment.

[Edward64]

Don't know how much equivalence there is to the US SCOTUS but if this happened in the US, it'd be really, really bad.

Iran: Two supreme court judges shot dead in Tehran

Two senior Iranian judges have been shot dead in an apparent assassination in the country's supreme court.

Ali Razini and Mohammad Moghiseh were killed after an armed man entered the court, in the capital Tehran, on Saturday morning.

The attacker is said to have then killed themselves while fleeing the scene, according to the judiciary's news website, Mizan. A bodyguard was also injured in the attack.

The motive for the attack is unclear, but both judges are said to have played a role in the persecution and killing of opponents of the Islamic regime throughout the 1980s and 1990s.

Okay, nvm. Significant but not near as significant ... maybe more like a state supreme court?

Unlike the U.S. Supreme Court, the Iranian Supreme Court has many branches spread across the country. It is the highest court in Iran and can hear appeals on decisions made by lower courts.