POTUS 2024 - Harris vs Trump - General Election Discussion

[NobodyHere]

You know what's more annoying than political ads? Political ads that are for races you can't vote in. I live in Ohio, why am I seeing political ads for a race in Texas!

[henry296]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

You know what's more annoying than political ads? Political ads that are for races you can't vote in. I live in Ohio, why am I seeing political ads for a race in Texas!

Are you watching a sporting event with a team from Texas?

[JPhillips]

RFK Jr. said that if Trump wins they'll advise cities to stop adding fluoride to water.

Dr. Strangelove predicts the Trump admin.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by henry296

Are you watching a sporting event with a team from Texas?

Yes, but it is on a local station

[Jas_lov]

Oh my God. Selzer poll of Iowa has Harris up 47-44. I thought Harris would be doing better than the Trump +8 2020 result based on what I'd seen in the suburbs but not that much better! Selzer is considered a really good pollster who doesn't herd. She must see something in her numbers showing Trump struggling here. Could be struggling in other parts of the upper midwest too.

[JPhillips]

I just can't imagine Harris winning in Iowa, but it's probably not 11 points off, so she's on track to at least do better than Biden. That bodes well nationally.

[RainMaker]

I absolutely don't see her winning Iowa but if Iowa is even close, she's winning the election.

[Jas_lov]

Yeah, I think it'd be crazy if she won here. Biden got 45 in 2020 so anything above that would be amazing. This is a state that has moved right since 2020 if anything so who knows.There have been recent polls of Ohio and Kansas that show those a lot closer so maybe Trump is in worse shape than we think and battleground pollsters are herding. That's my hope anyway.

[JPhillips]

I'm expecting not to like a lot of a Harris presidency, but a big win would put a stake through Trumpism and that would be very beneficial for the country.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

RFK Jr. said that if Trump wins they'll advise cities to stop adding fluoride to water.

Dr. Strangelove predicts the Trump admin.

The thing is... this could be the logical direction after what we have seen about vaccinations. What started with anger over mask mandates and the like turned into anger over covid vaccine mandates, and then over the covid vaccines themselves, and now (as this has made people feel really good about being "independent" and "doing their own research") there's a whole demographic who are basically rejecting the entire concept of vaccinations for anything. We're going to see completely avoidable spikes in measles and worse as communities dense with redpilled or otherwise susceptible residents follow along with the claptrap they read on facebook, and hear from these "leaders" on their chosen television sources. And perhaps from their White House.

Play it forward. Fluorine in the water? Conspiracy. Alabama shuts it down. Massachusetts keeps theirs going. Liberal places tax sugary beverages, ban kid-focused advertising for nicotine products, educate kids on safe sex practices, improve standards for school lunch nutrition, and so forth... conservative places just don't. How many more things could fall the same way?

The whole increasingly polarized country can turn into a public health A/B test in real time, on a scale that nobody could set up as a study within ethical boundaries.

[Swaggs]

Selzer poll has to be alarming for Trump and his team. I imagine the Dems would have taken anything closer than the 2020 margin (Trump 53 to Biden 45) as a good sign that the gap had closed, but Kamala +3 is pretty hard to believe.

On election night, I will be watching my county here in WV. Every county in WV went for Trump in 2020, but mine was 20,803 to 20,282 (49.4 to 48.2). I noticed 4 or 5 Harris signs on Halloween night while we were out with the kids and no Trump signs, where in 2020 there were no Biden signs and 2-3 Trump signs. I think my county will probably flip blue and should be a pretty good early bellwether with it having been so close before. State polls close at 7:30 PM and are usually reported upon pretty quickly. The state will immediately be called for Trump, but it will be interesting to see if the county flips.

[thesloppy]

Portland doesn't flouridate their water and never has as far as I know. Dentists immediately know when you grew up out of state.

[GrantDawg]

Cross tabs on the Iowa poll? It's the women. Women across all ages. +20% Harris.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

The whole increasingly polarized country can turn into a public health A/B test in real time, on a scale that nobody could set up as a study within ethical boundaries.

We're kind of already there.

The states with the highest infant mortality rates are: Mississippi, South Dakota, Arkansas, West Virginia, Louisiana, Indiana, and Georgia.

The states with the highest rate of heart disease are: Mississippi, Alabama, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky.

States with highest obesity rates: West Virginia, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Tennessee.

States with highest death rates from Flu: Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, West Virginia, Arkansas.

And so on and so on.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

Oh my God. Selzer poll of Iowa has Harris up 47-44. I thought Harris would be doing better than the Trump +8 2020 result based on what I'd seen in the suburbs but not that much better! Selzer is considered a really good pollster who doesn't herd. She must see something in her numbers showing Trump struggling here. Could be struggling in other parts of the upper midwest too.

wow

[albionmoonlight]

Selzer poll is jaw dropping news

[larrymcg421]

That Iowa poll put Harris up to .56 on PredictIt.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Selzer poll is jaw dropping news

This is THE poll as well.



[Ben E Lou]

What’s the squirrel/raccoon foolishness I keep seeing?

[cuervo72]

Guy in rural NY saves baby squirrel, tries to set free, squirrel comes back (injured). Man keeps squirrel as pet for eight years, makes him an instagram. Guy recently rescues raccoon. Neighbors report man, wildlife service raids home, takes raccoon and squirrel, euthanizes them.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

What’s the squirrel/raccoon foolishness I keep seeing?

Guy rescued both in New York, where having them as pets are illegal. They had a big following online. The state ended up taking them and putting them down.

[Thomkal]

And the hits keep coming-there were rumors of a big story that would hit before the election-here it is. Daily Beast has a story and recording from Jeffrey Epstein that says Donald is one of his closest friends and describes a bunch of stuff he did with him.


x.com

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

The thing is... this could be the logical direction after what we have seen about vaccinations. What started with anger over mask mandates and the like turned into anger over covid vaccine mandates, and then over the covid vaccines themselves, and now (as this has made people feel really good about being "independent" and "doing their own research") there's a whole demographic who are basically rejecting the entire concept of vaccinations for anything. We're going to see completely avoidable spikes in measles and worse as communities dense with redpilled or otherwise susceptible residents follow along with the claptrap they read on facebook, and hear from these "leaders" on their chosen television sources. And perhaps from their White House.

Play it forward. Fluorine in the water? Conspiracy. Alabama shuts it down. Massachusetts keeps theirs going. Liberal places tax sugary beverages, ban kid-focused advertising for nicotine products, educate kids on safe sex practices, improve standards for school lunch nutrition, and so forth... conservative places just don't. How many more things could fall the same way?

The whole increasingly polarized country can turn into a public health A/B test in real time, on a scale that nobody could set up as a study within ethical boundaries.

And the disparity in outcomes will be used as proof that the elites don't like the people in red states.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

This is THE poll as well.



This election might just be as simple as Dobbs really pissed off women.

The Selzer poll results are consistent with a Dobbs effect.

Trump mostly holds his margin with men while losing serious ground among women. pic.twitter.com/C1fmnSSVj8

— Jake Rubinstein (@Jlrube) November 3, 2024

[NobodyHere]

I;m going to hate myself for it but I will probably vote for Harris on Tuesday only because Trump is such a douche.

[Brian Swartz]

That's more or less my reasoning. I hope the Selzer stuff is representative. It will almost certainly be the last time I vote D for a long time, but it's a narrowly better choice than voting third-party this time in my estimation.

[Brian Swartz]

The other thing is, if the race goes the way you would expect from what ... I don't know, do we call it the 'Selzer Shift' or somesuch if you extrapolate nationally ... the rest of the pollsters are going to have destroyed their credibility. That would be massively worse than any of the other slightly off outlooks in past cycles.

[cartman]

So Trump performed a blowjob on the microphone at his rally in Milwaukee today

[Swaggs]

Nate Silver is certainly hedging.

He has been talking about how improbable it would be for all 7 swing states to be within 1% and said it would be something like 1 in 9.5 trillion for it to happen.

Now he has an easy out to extend his 15 minutes for another 4-years because he can blame the pollsters for his magical model being off.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I;m going to hate myself for it but I will probably vote for Harris on Tuesday only because Trump is such a douche.

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

That's more or less my reasoning. I hope the Selzer stuff is representative. It will almost certainly be the last time I vote D for a long time, but it's a narrowly better choice than voting third-party this time in my estimation.

Happy that you both decided not to vote 3rd party this time around.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

Yeah, I think it'd be crazy if she won here. Biden got 45 in 2020 so anything above that would be amazing. This is a state that has moved right since 2020 if anything so who knows.There have been recent polls of Ohio and Kansas that show those a lot closer so maybe Trump is in worse shape than we think and battleground pollsters are herding. That's my hope anyway.

A large portion of the state may remember how disastrous Trumps tariffs were the first time around and are like, nah, fuck that shit, this time around.

[PilotMan]

KY will still go for trump, but in my area, which is more balanced, but still more R, there's far lower trump energy than 16 or 20. We voted. I know my home was 4 votes for Harris.

[Ksyrup]

I've to stay out of this thread. You guys are making me feel ... hopeful? I don't like this feeling.

I might need to counteract it with a healthy dose of Swallow the Sun tonight and the next couple of nights to put me back into a proper depressed mood so that I'm ready for Tuesday night.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I've to stay out of this thread. You guys are making me feel ... hopeful? I don't like this feeling.

I might need to counteract it with a healthy dose of Swallow the Sun tonight and the next couple of nights to put me back into a proper depressed mood so that I'm ready for Tuesday night.

Just remember we're just a couple of members of a forum that leans a certain way.

It's just like the way that you thought Firefly was the greatest show ever yet it got canceled.

[Ksyrup]

Do what now?

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I've to stay out of this thread. You guys are making me feel ... hopeful? I don't like this feeling.

I might need to counteract it with a healthy dose of Swallow the Sun tonight and the next couple of nights to put me back into a proper depressed mood so that I'm ready for Tuesday night.

Ha, I've not been commenting on a lot of people's replies here recently because it was just stressing me out too much.

[Atocep]

If Trump loses there's going to be a lot of focus on that MSG rally. It served absolutely no purpose electorally and was done to feed his own ego. He's always wanted do to something at MSG and had the chance.

One crazy thing about that rally that I think is somewhat overlooked is we have a former president, running for reelection, days away from election day, having a campaign rally at one of the most prestigious venues in the country, and not a single politician of any merit showed up to support him. That's why he ended up having Tony Hinchcliffe, Rudy Giuliani, Sid Rosenberg, and Grant Cardone speaking.

[RainMaker]

If the theory is that the pollsters are all herding in the swing states to not underestimate Trump again, looking at non-competitive states might be more valuable where they aren't herding. There have been some interesting polls like Trump only up 3% in Ohio and 5% in Kansas. I doubt they'll be that close but it does show that she might be performing much better than people thought.

If she does win, there will be talk of MSG and a bunch of other stuff. I still think it comes down to Dobbs. It's an incredibly unpopular decision and people who lose rights tend to be quite motivated. And I wonder if a woman on the ticket as opposed to Biden who wasn't exactly a champion of women's rights provided an added boost. Doesn't hurt that Trump went with Vance who has a lot of creepy things to say about women.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

And the hits keep coming-there were rumors of a big story that would hit before the election-here it is. Daily Beast has a story and recording from Jeffrey Epstein that says Donald is one of his closest friends and describes a bunch of stuff he did with him.

x.com

This stuff should be huge news but Dems can't run with it because of their Clinton idoltry and the media has mostly just treated Epstein as a mystery that can't be reported on anymore. One day it'd be nice to know who was all involved and what in the fuck was Epstein's deal. Like how did this loser get all that money and connections to powerful people? Was he blackmailing people? Was he a CIA asset? I feel crazy for thinking this should have been a much bigger story.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

If the theory is that the pollsters are all herding in the swing states to not underestimate Trump again, looking at non-competitive states might be more valuable where they aren't herding. There have been some interesting polls like Trump only up 3% in Ohio and 5% in Kansas. I doubt they'll be that close but it does show that she might be performing much better than people thought.

If she does win, there will be talk of MSG and a bunch of other stuff. I still think it comes down to Dobbs. It's an incredibly unpopular decision and people who lose rights tend to be quite motivated. And I wonder if a woman on the ticket as opposed to Biden who wasn't exactly a champion of women's rights provided an added boost. Doesn't hurt that Trump went with Vance who has a lot of creepy things to say about women.

It's definitely a factor. Vance is also not at all popular in Ohio and surrounding states from what i recall. (and yeah, Iowa has a near total abortion ban now that is not popular).

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

This stuff should be huge news but Dems can't run with it because of their Clinton idoltry and the media has mostly just treated Epstein as a mystery that can't be reported on anymore. One day it'd be nice to know who was all involved and what in the fuck was Epstein's deal. Like how did this loser get all that money and connections to powerful people? Was he blackmailing people? Was he a CIA asset? I feel crazy for thinking this should have been a much bigger story.

The difference being if similar news came out about Bill Clinton they would have dropped him from any rally/get our the vote effort. Pedofiles/adultry the way it has been described with Trump, just never would have been allowed in a Party so strongly into woman's rights as they are now. I think what Clinton did with Lewisnsky in the White House should have been enough for him to resign out of embarassment, and it should have been enough to isolate him from the Party in case stories like this came out about him.

[cartman]

The cameraman at Trump's livestream must have found out the campaign wasn't going to pay the bill.

https://www.threads.net/@jklappenbach/post/DB5eE7ctkup

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by cartman

The cameraman at Trump's livestream must have found out the campaign wasn't going to pay the bill.

https://www.threads.net/@jklappenbach/post/DB5eE7ctkup

Fascinating how loyal and devoted so many of his followers are, but the people closest to him just hate him.

[BYU 14]

Props to whoever did this, LOL, though Vance will explain he used real time AI to makes the seats look empty. Then they will throw him on the people to imprison list.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

This is THE poll as well.



So, the Selzer poll can be off by 5 points, which puts Trump at 49 and Harris at 42, much more in line with expectations.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

So, the Selzer poll can be off by 5 points, which puts Trump at 49 and Harris at 42, much more in line with expectations.

Nah, what you describe is a 10 point swing, not a 5 point one. (47-45 or 46-44 Trump would be the equivalent to this single 5 point discrepancy)

[Lathum]

He won Iowa by 9 in 2020. Even a 4 or 5 point win in Iowa is a bad sign for him

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by whomario

Nah, what you describe is a 10 point swing, not a 5 point one. (47-45 or 46-44 Trump would be the equivalent to this single 5 point discrepancy)

Is this is the political equivalent to the argumemt over what it means to be X number of games under .500?

[JPhillips]

Selzer's congressional polling is also a disaster for the GOP.

(All four seats currently held by GOP)

Iowa’s 1st Congressional District

D Christina Bohannan - 53%
R Mariannette Miller-Meeks - 37%

Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District

R Ashley Hinson - 45%
D Sarah Corkery - 42%

Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District

D Lanon Baccum - 48%
R Zach Nunn - 41%

Iowa’s 4th Congressional District

R Randy Feenstra - 53%
D Ryan Melton - 37%

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by cartman

The cameraman at Trump's livestream must have found out the campaign wasn't going to pay the bill.

https://www.threads.net/@jklappenbach/post/DB5eE7ctkup

Little ol' Greensboro keeps having newsworthy stuff in this campaign.