2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by Butter

Ok, but last election there were 12% undecided voters late that overwhelmingly broke for Trump. This time undecideds are more like 2%. Wouldn't that further the narrative that the shy Trump voter is dead?

I think he may have been referencing folks that claim Biden to pollsters and then vote Trump.

[Jas_lov]

I question the hidden Trump voter theory because the R Senate candidates don't poll better than Trump and the generic congressional ballot is about where it was in 2018. Unless they just aren't reaching that voter but pollsters seemed to adjust for that this year.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

I question the hidden Trump voter theory because the R Senate candidates don't poll better than Trump and the generic congressional ballot is about where it was in 2018. Unless they just aren't reaching that voter but pollsters seemed to adjust for that this year.

Right. In fact in a lot of polls, the D Senate candidates poll HIGHER than Biden do. Meaning there doesn't seem to be a lot of evidence that people don't want to admit they are supporting Trump... unless they are ashamed of their Senate candidates as well.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Right. In fact in a lot of polls, the D Senate candidates poll HIGHER than Biden do. Meaning there doesn't seem to be a lot of evidence that people don't want to admit they are supporting Trump... unless they are ashamed of their Senate candidates as well.

this grammar broke my brain

[larrymcg421]

The shy Trump voter stuff reminds me of the Bradley effect theory posited in 2008 that said Obama would underperform because people didn't want to admit to pollsters they wouldn't vote for a black man. Obama ended up overperforming his polls.

[Ksyrup]

Shenanigans!

#NEWS: The GOP commissioner of Lancaster County, in southern Pennsylvania, is REFUSING TO COUNT MAIL-IN BALLOTS THAT COME IN AFTER ELECTION DAY UNTIL THERE IS A SUPREME COURT RULING. #Election2020 pic.twitter.com/XRsea1R7Wg

— Eric Cortellessa (@EricCortellessa) November 3, 2020

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Right. In fact in a lot of polls, the D Senate candidates poll HIGHER than Biden do. Meaning there doesn't seem to be a lot of evidence that people don't want to admit they are supporting Trump... unless they are ashamed of their Senate candidates as well.

my sister is one of those that DVR records hannity

Whenever things are brought up she says (loudly) well both sides lie. Both sides are throwing misinformation"

When I told her of my exploits at Biden honk and waves, and how trumpers were always so angry she got mad and said that she never saw any democrat that wasn't angry then she mentioned a bunch of fox news buzzwords.

So I replied back with a three page treatise giving facts and my opinions on why things trump has done are wrong as well as different viewpoints from various articles. as well as how religion factored into things. I was waiting for a reply about.....ANY ONE THING that is an issue....I got nothing

So that's my intrepretation of the silent trump voter. People that deny they are republican, and try to manipulate conversations with "oh both sides blahblahblah"

is that an incorrect interpretation you think?

[ISiddiqui]

So she would lie to a pollster or be wary of admitting she's a Trump supporter?

Because that's the shy Trump voter theory.

[CrimsonFox]

I am really glad that ROb Reiner and the Spinal Tap crew told Pennsylvanians to not mail in their ballot but to go to the board of elections and mail in person. Maybe that got more Democrats doing that. Or at least dropping them off early.

I really really want to throttle people that are living in a cave and mail in ballots late.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

So she would lie to a pollster or be wary of admitting she's a Trump supporter?

Because that's the shy Trump voter theory.

oh no she would totally say she was for trump if asked by a pollster I think.
is that what you're talking about?

[molson]

So in PA, zero of the mail ballots that are received yesterday and today will be counted before tomorrow.

So you can see where this is going. Unless it's a unexpected Biden landslide there, Trump will look relatively stronger until tomorrow, maybe significantly so. I guess there's a version of that at play in most states.

This is why I vote in person. Even if my ballot was received weeks early, I wouldn't have confidence that it would be counted on election day or before. (And I guess ballots received after today won't be counted at all even though state law requires it and there's no court ruling to the contrary)

[spleen1015]

It depends on where you live. My county started county this morning.

EDIT - Had to look up exactly what happens here.

[GrantDawg]

I feel like a donkey for spending 90 minutes in line to vote early. Rode by my polling place this morning, and there was absolutely no line. Interestingly, the next closes polling place (about a half mile down the road, which I will never understand) did have a sizable line. Difference? My district skews a little further blue than the other. By 10, even that polling place was down to no line. Meanwhile, my boss who lives on the very rural red side of the county had to wait 45 minutes to vote after 10am.
I just heard that Fulton county has no line over 30 minutes.

[GrantDawg]

Btw, my idea of a shy Trump voter is one that would never answer a poll because they don't trust pollsters. I saw someone recently did an article that said that might not just be as heavily a Trump support thing as a many voter thing.

[Lathum]

Been hearing interesting rhetoric from the Trump camp thins morning, stuff like he will declare victory when there is one, and he just said he doesn't want to think about a concession speech or acceptance speech. I'm wondering if after all the typical bluster there isn't any fight in the dog and he won't litigate this.

[JPhillips]

Trump needs two things to challenge the results, a close enough election that he could win through legal challenges and a conservative legal establishment willing to fight to overturn election results and/or stop counting votes.

I think he might be realizing that after he got the third SCOTUS appointment, the GOP doesn't need him as much.

[JediKooter]

Just got back from voting with my wife. Other than having a hard time finding the place, no line at all.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I guess it depends on whether your state has early in-person voting. Certainly I understand voting today versus absentee ballot if those were your only choices. We've had 3 weeks here in KY to vote (including Saturdays) - I don't know why a single person would vote today.

Nope, I think this was one thing KY did that was very well managed. At least here. Except for the dude they let vote in full trump regalia. Besides that it was handled well.

[JPhillips]

There's a lot going on in the lower tweet.

I spoke w Kristen Woodward, who drove 5 and a half hours from NJ to visit the Trump House on Election Day after seeing it featured on Fox. She brought her ventriloquist dummy, George, to take photos with (he’s also a Trump supporter). pic.twitter.com/65XDbem0Mh

— Rosalind Adams (@RosalindZAdams) November 3, 2020

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I think he might be realizing that after he got the third SCOTUS appointment, the GOP doesn't need him as much.

I was wondering this too. Wouldn't shoving Amy Coney Barrett through basically make a lot of conservative evangelicals who couldn't stand Trump but voted for him for the SCOTUS basically have little reason to hold their noses and vote for him anymore? Hell, they could even tell themselves that Trump had "gone too far".

[Lathum]

RE The Trump House.

Jesus Christ...

I like the one guys comment "definitely not a cult" lol.

[Bee]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Been hearing interesting rhetoric from the Trump camp thins morning, stuff like he will declare victory when there is one, and he just said he doesn't want to think about a concession speech or acceptance speech. I'm wondering if after all the typical bluster there isn't any fight in the dog and he won't litigate this.

If at any point during the night Trump is leading in enough states that he can declare victory, he will. I don't think there is any chance he gives a concession speech. Even if he gets blown out, he will claim voter fraud and try to sue.

[Thomkal]

So anybody see/hear about any voter intimidation/poll watchers going on?

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

I was wondering this too. Wouldn't shoving Amy Coney Barrett through basically make a lot of conservative evangelicals who couldn't stand Trump but voted for him for the SCOTUS basically have little reason to hold their noses and vote for him anymore? Hell, they could even tell themselves that Trump had "gone too far".

The cult is all in, but the GOP establishment doesn't have a lot of reasons to go all in on a scheme to overturn the election.

What will be fun is when Trump starts placing blame for losing on various GOPers. His team not being loyal and ruthless enough will be a much bigger slight than anything done by Dems.

[Butter]

My youngest son who was unable to join me in early voting, went by our suburban Dayton polling place and said it was a walk-on, to use roller coaster wait time parlance. "Where is everybody?" he asked me. I said early voting, mail voting, or not showing up

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Bee

If at any point during the night Trump is leading in enough states that he can declare victory, he will. I don't think there is any chance he gives a concession speech. Even if he gets blown out, he will claim voter fraud and try to sue.

His body language says otherwise. Lets not forget, this is a man who people that know him claims never wanted to be president. His ego will never let him back out and he had to talk a big game leading up to today, but if he loses he can say he will leave office because he is a patriot even thought he was robbed.

He is starring at 4 years of real responsibility and a raging pandemic. I don't think he likes the job as much as he did the first 3 years and the prospect of 4 more with some real challenges, including not having the senate anymore, could make him give it up while saving face.

Probably just wishful thinking though.

[Ksyrup]

I was in a good space until my brother texted about an hour ago and thinks Trump is going to win. And he's not an avid Trump guy. He says the raw data in FL and elsewhere looks good for Trump and that GOP turnout is heavy. I just don't see it but I'm open to the possibility that it's all in the silos you get your information from, and one of us is obviously seeing wrong info/analysis.

I've got an hour drive home and I don't usually drink, but tonight I may be busting out the bourbon pretty early. That and listening to some post-Black metal to prep me for a hypnotic depression if the results call for it.

[JPhillips]

There's a little advantage in FL in terms of GOP turnout, but the real issue is how do independents break. The gap in turnout isn't going to be more than 2-3 points while independents make up a third or so of the electorate.

[Ksyrup]

He's using the wrong pen.

um SIR pic.twitter.com/2AIvurXK13

— miko | croc daddy (@holamikoo) November 3, 2020

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I was in a good space until my brother texted about an hour ago and thinks Trump is going to win. And he's not an avid Trump guy. He says the raw data in FL and elsewhere looks good for Trump and that GOP turnout is heavy. I just don't see it but I'm open to the possibility that it's all in the silos you get your information from, and one of us is obviously seeing wrong info/analysis.

I've got an hour drive home and I don't usually drink, but tonight I may be busting out the bourbon pretty early. That and listening to some post-Black metal to prep me for a hypnotic depression if the results call for it.

Looking at turnout as of earlier this morning, Wasserman said Trump needs 68-70% of the vote in Sumter County and he's definitely been under that. We're simply not going to know much until 7pm though. Anything prior to that is speculation.

Florida is probably Biden's worst performing state overall as well. Following the polling trends form other states he should be up in polls more than he has. I wouldn't be worried unless Florida looks like a clear win for Trump.

[Ksyrup]

Or... Hanging Chad. Take your pick.

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

So anybody see/hear about any voter intimidation/poll watchers going on?

A former co-worker of mine is a poll worker in the Los Angeles area and she said there was a bomb at the polling station that was found shortly before it opened this morning.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by JediKooter

A former co-worker of mine is a poll worker in the Los Angeles area and she said there was a bomb at the polling station that was found shortly before it opened this morning.

wow scary Jedi. I have not yet seen reports of voter intimidation but did see this report about misleading tweets from conservative operatives in PA:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...liveBlogHeader

Also KS Sec of State has tweeted about ignoring robo-calls saying the polls were closed, and Michigan has received similar

[Atocep]

The Trump campaign is worried about early election day turnout numbers in PA.

“When you bank your entire election on Election Day turnout, you have to ask people if they’re going to stand in line for two hours," this source w direct knowledge of the Trump campaign's operations says, detailing concern about Election Day turnout for Trump in PA. https://t.co/RWUqWaXGGW

— Peter Alexander (@PeterAlexander) November 3, 2020

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

wow scary Jedi. I have not yet seen reports of voter intimidation but did see this report about misleading tweets from conservative operatives in PA:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...liveBlogHeader

Also KS Sec of State has tweeted about ignoring robo-calls saying the polls were closed, and Michigan has received similar

Pretty wild man. She said the cops said it was some kind of battery bomb and they took care of it. Other than that, that's the only thing I've heard and really does seem to be a quiet day so far.

The robo calls sound like something that is very premeditated in my opinion. I don't know how fast you can set up a robo call operation but seems like you would need to at least have some time to coordinate it.

[Bee]

Originally Posted by Lathum

His body language says otherwise. Lets not forget, this is a man who people that know him claims never wanted to be president. His ego will never let him back out and he had to talk a big game leading up to today, but if he loses he can say he will leave office because he is a patriot even thought he was robbed.

He is starring at 4 years of real responsibility and a raging pandemic. I don't think he likes the job as much as he did the first 3 years and the prospect of 4 more with some real challenges, including not having the senate anymore, could make him give it up while saving face.

Probably just wishful thinking though.

I hope you are right but I've come to expect the worst from the President.

[Ben E Lou]

I. Am. Crying.

an electoral map if Biden wins every state containing area codes where Ludacris claimed to have hoes pic.twitter.com/WGLVYN4ufq

— Pumpkin Spice 1 (@toriimacdaddy) November 3, 2020

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Also KS Sec of State has tweeted about ignoring robo-calls saying the polls were closed, and Michigan has received similar

That pretty much happens every year. Illegal as can be, but run of the mill.

SI

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

That pretty much happens every year. Illegal as can be, but run of the mill.

SI

Yep I agree as long as its not a coordinated and organized effort to do so

[Ghost Econ]

Originally Posted by Bee

I hope you are right but I've come to expect the worst from the world.

FTFY

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Butter

I'm looking forward to getting way fewer texts and targeted FB posts about voting, encouraging others to vote, and donating to whoever's campaign.

This is my first Presidential election in a swing state and yeah... I could do without the mass of unsolicited calls/texts. I know people think they're helping their side by doing these, but at the least the volume leads to greatly diminishing returns if not backlash. Since I voted early I've been responding to them saying I'll vote for Trump & Tillis out of spite if they keep badgering me.

Originally Posted by Bee

If at any point during the night Trump is leading in enough states that he can declare victory, he will. I don't think there is any chance he gives a concession speech. Even if he gets blown out, he will claim voter fraud and try to sue.

The first is a given, I don't think the second is. Lawsuits will be filed in some states and encouraged on his behalf (PA seems like a given), but his heart's just not in it, and more importantly it would require actual hard work. America 2020!

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Yep I agree as long as its not a coordinated and organized effort to do so

The Governor of Michigan has tweeted now about the robocalls some of the people in the state have been getting

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Butter

I'm looking forward to getting way fewer texts and targeted FB posts about voting, encouraging others to vote, and donating to whoever's campaign.

I've actually been somewhat happy about it, ONLY because it means Georgia is finally a battleground state.

Of course, we are likely to have 2 Senate runoffs (due to the early retirement of Sen Isakson), so it's not going to end today.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Lathum

His body language says otherwise. Lets not forget, this is a man who people that know him claims never wanted to be president. His ego will never let him back out and he had to talk a big game leading up to today, but if he loses he can say he will leave office because he is a patriot even thought he was robbed.

He is starring at 4 years of real responsibility and a raging pandemic. I don't think he likes the job as much as he did the first 3 years and the prospect of 4 more with some real challenges, including not having the senate anymore, could make him give it up while saving face.

Probably just wishful thinking though.

Remember that he's a goldfish, too.

A lot might depend on who has his ear at the right time. If it is someone with an interest in just burning the whole thing to the ground (i.e. Mark Meadows), he'll convince Trump that he's going to jail if he doesn't win and he needs to start a civil war.

If it is someone who thinks that Trump will end up losing and hurt the GOP brand, then he convinces Trump that "yeah, they stole it, but you don't need this anymore, sir. Why don't you go make some money and let the Democrat party deal with the mess they created?"

Like, the difference between civil war, and a normal transition, and Trump just quitting and going to his golf course in Scotland might literally be who happens to be in the room with him tonight and tomorrow morning.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ

The right leaning polls are trying to factor in shy Trump voters. Those people probably existed, but that shame died a long time ago. Shy Trump voters don't exist anymore.

I've yet to see any evidence they ever existed in any significant number. Polls and election results have been too close for that to fly.

[rjolley]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

I. Am. Crying.

an electoral map if Biden wins every state containing area codes where Ludacris claimed to have hoes pic.twitter.com/WGLVYN4ufq

— Pumpkin Spice 1 (@toriimacdaddy) November 3, 2020

Thank you very much for this. This is the content I come to this board for and the board never disappoints.

[Ghost Econ]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I've yet to see any evidence they ever existed in any significant number. Polls and election results have been too close for that to fly.

I'm in SC and know plenty of people who in 2016 would not have admitted in public they were voting for Trump that now believe Biden will lead us into a socialist ANTIFA hellscape. These are people who arent poorly educated and have mostly been indoctrinated in their churches and Fox.

[Swaggs]

Is it really in any GOPer's interest to protect Trump from something like prison if he loses the presidency tonight?

I'd think there is a pretty good chance that he goes as scorched earth on the Republicans as the Dems, so it may be in their (powerbrokers') best interest to do whatever it takes to get him off the radar and out of their lives as soon as possible. I think the worst thing for the Republicans would be to lose all three branches this election and then have Trump crusading for "his people" in lieu of being a good Republican for the next few years.

It will be interesting to see what the public comments from the GOP establishment players will be if there is a big loss tonight. They have a pretty fine line to thread to not upset the Trump Republicans AND to bring back all Lincoln Project types.

[Vegas Vic]

I live in Florida now, in a heavily republican area of Palm Coast. One thing that isn't getting much play in the national media is the genuine fear that many of these people have of Joe Biden passing away or becoming incapacitated soon, and Kamala Harris taking over.

I don't share the same fear of Harris. Actually, I don't think she would govern much differently than Biden. I do find it fascinating that a woman who couldn't even get 2% support in her own party's presidential primary has a realistic chance to become president in the next four years.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

I do find it fascinating that a woman who couldn't even get 2% support in her own party's presidential primary has a realistic chance to become president in the next four years.

I mean Dan Quayle was Vice President once.

edit: I will also note that in 2008, Joe Biden ran for President as well. He got 1% in Iowa and dropped out that day.