2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread

[GrantDawg]

There have been plenty of VP's that never ran for President, and would have never gotten a nomination. Dick Cheney comes to mind.

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[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

I mean Dan Quayle was Vice President once.

edit: I will also note that in 2008, Joe Biden ran for President as well. He got 1% in Iowa and dropped out that day.

To my point, Dan Quayle never ran for President. Biden, for what it’s worth, has run for President several times with varying degrees of success.

[Atocep]

Fear as a GOP motivator isn't anything new. In 2008 Obama was a Muslim here to infiltrate our government and lead the blacks in enslaving whites. GOP turnout is high right now because of Trump. There's no way fear of Biden/Harris tops the craziness surrounding Obama in '08.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

I live in Florida now, in a heavily republican area of Palm Coast. One thing that isn't getting much play in the national media is the genuine fear that many of these people have of Joe Biden passing away or becoming incapacitated soon, and Kamala Harris taking over.

If they are afraid of Kamala Harris, then they were always Trump voters who just needed to come up with a reason.

As you note, I don't see her as much different that Biden in terms of how she would govern.

[Lathum]

I honestly dont know how anyone can watch Biden the last few weeks and see any reason he may not make it through a full term other than a few liver spots. He has plenty of energy, fire, speaks clearly, moves around fine, etc...If I was betting in a death pool I would take Trump every time.

[Ksyrup]

This is totally me:

In my heart, I am hoping Biden wins.

In my head, I am scrolling through rental properties in Canada.

— Brad Sherwood (@TheBradSherwood) November 3, 2020

[albionmoonlight]

Most encouraged thing I've heard pro-Biden was in a text chat with some friends.

One of the guys volunteered for the Clinton campaign. And he said that he did a ton of outreach, and so many people he reached out to were basically like, "Hey, she's gonna win easy, so why does it matter." He thinks that a ton of Dems stayed home out of complacency.

Not this year. Trump's message of "Imma steal the election unless you beat me so badly that it would be impossible" may not have worked as well for him as he had hoped.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

If they are afraid of Kamala Harris, then they were always Trump voters who just needed to come up with a reason.

As you note, I don't see her as much different that Biden in terms of how she would govern.

I agree to a point. However, genuine concern about the health of the presidential candidates isn’t usually an issue. It certainly is with Biden and Trump. Perhaps with McCain back in 2008 (Sarah Palin).

[Brian Swartz]

I voted for Biden and I'm more concerned about him in that regard than Trump. I have a relative who is a long-time progressive who agrees completely with me on that perception. Just fwiw.

[Ksyrup]

That's my brother. He believes Harris is dangerous. He doesn't think Biden or Trump last 2 years so it was Pence vs Harris.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

I think he may have been referencing folks that claim Biden to pollsters and then vote Trump.

Correct.

I just think people are underestimating the social desirability bias that is involved with telling a non Trump supporter that you are voting for Trump. I am sure others believe that I am overestimating it. As I said before, I believe that could be the case. I don't think anybody believes that this type of bias is not there. It just a matter of how much it is in play. This is not voting for GWB or even Ronald Reagan during those general elections.

[Thomkal]

The Republican Governor of Vermont has voted for Biden, saying it was the first time he voted for a Democrat for President

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

This is totally me:

Me too

[molson]

The NY Times site is doing away with the dreaded needle probability of doom this time, except for three states that they expect to get solid results for tonight and feel that they can actually measure accurately - Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina.

Usually election night I putter around the house doing easy tasks and then check in online every so often. I think tonight I'm going with the laptop/picture in picture TV combo and light beer. Then a firepit fire and scotch later if I need to unwind and reflect upon my hope or doom.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Correct.

I just think people are underestimating the social desirability bias that is involved with telling a non Trump supporter that you are voting for Trump. I am sure others believe that I am overestimating it. As I said before, I believe that could be the case. I don't think anybody believes that this type of bias is not there. It just a matter of how much it is in play. This is not voting for GWB or even Ronald Reagan during those general elections.

It goes both ways. Admitting to Trump supporters that you're a liberal isn't worth the time and frustration you'll get out of it. While speaking anecdotally, there are articles from the past few months that cover Biden supporters in Trump neighborhoods and how they don't feel comfortable or entirely safe admitting so.

At some point a significant number of shy Trump voters would show up in polls or approval ratings. They didn't exist in 2016 and I doubt they really exist in large numbers now. 2016 happened because of voting tendency assumptions (mostly regarding education level) that have been corrected since. Keep in mind 2018 polls favored GOP by a couple of points.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Atocep

At some point a significant number of shy Trump voters would show up in polls or approval ratings. They didn't exist in 2016 and I doubt they really exist in large numbers now

This.

[Ksyrup]

The thing that argues most against shy ANYONE voters is that so many people now surround themselves with people (either real or imaginary (online)) who think like them, that if anything, I think it goes the other way. It wasn't until FB that I found out the politics of so many people whose beliefs I didn't even want to know. Now, many people are too comfortable sharing this type of stuff. Why would they suddenly be embarrassed about saying the same thing to pollsters?

[Thomkal]

Trump/Nevada GOP asks the NV Supreme Court to stop part of the tabulation process where they have ballots with defects that prevent them from going through the machine until they are given Observer Access

[Atocep]

If Trump wins its going to be some combination of electoral college favoring GOP, turnout models being off, or another shift in voting tendencies from one or more groups.

[Ksyrup]

If Trump wins, it will once again be because the Democrats didn't give people someone to vote for, just someone who was supposedly not as bad as voting for Trump. Even if a lot of Trump's support is crazy and cultish, that also translates to voting enthusiasm.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Trump/Nevada GOP asks the NV Supreme Court to stop part of the tabulation process where they have ballots with defects that prevent them from going through the machine until they are given Observer Access

It’s a non-issue. Biden will easily carry Nevada. It’s still erroneously labeled as a battleground state, but that’s a joke. It was solid red when I moved there in 1990, but with each election cycle the huge influx of Californians and Hispanics has turned the state deep blue.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

To my point, Dan Quayle never ran for President. Biden, for what it’s worth, has run for President several times with varying degrees of success.

What do you think Quayle would have gotten in the 1992 Primaries? Biden has ran for President 3 times. In 1988 he dropped out before the primaries. In 2008, he got 1% in Iowa and dropped out. In 2020, he won the damn thing.

[Brian Swartz]

Seeing more reports from people in my area, people who have voted for decades and never seen turnout this high. That has me more curious than I would have been to see how the returns come in.

[larrymcg421]

Dan Quayle did run for President in 2000. He withdrew before the first primary.

[sterlingice]

On the "shy voter" thing, sure, people put themselves in like minded echo chambers. But if given the question "I'm not talking to a pollster because the media is run by people I don't trust", it's going to skew pretty heavily red.

SI

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

On the "shy voter" thing, sure, people put themselves in like minded echo chambers. But if given the question "I'm not talking to a pollster because the media is run by people I don't trust", it's going to skew pretty heavily red.

SI

The problem is that studies of online polling and phone polling show no significant difference in support for Trump or Biden and I'm sure those same theoretical people you mention are going to gladly tell someone that they approve of the job the president is doing.

[larrymcg421]

Party registration of all voters in FL so far is GOP +1.8%. This is a good sign for Biden with his advantage with independents.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

so many people now surround themselves with people (either real or imaginary (online)) who think like them

And then there's Radii in IN.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Party registration of all voters in FL so far is GOP +1.8%. This is a good sign for Biden with his advantage with independents.

I also think you're going to have more Rs voting Biden than Ds voting Trump. Maybe not a significant number, but Trump probably needs that turnout advantage to be 3 or higher.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I also think you're going to have more Rs voting Biden than Ds voting Trump. Maybe not a significant number, but Trump probably needs that turnout advantage to be 3 or higher.

Yeah, Nate said that 3.5% is the break even point.

[larrymcg421]

FWIW, Predict It is moving towards Biden.

My shares of FL, NC, and PA are all up by 4-5 cents. NC is up to 57 cents, when it was 50 cents earlier today. PA is up to 68 cents, which I bought at 58-61 cents yesterday.

GOP is worried.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I am going to need a lot of rum and a big bucket of KFC to get through tonight.

Did you get KFC? Original or crispy?

[GrantDawg]

Harris is infinitly more qualified than Dan Quail ever was. Of course, she is a black woman that definitely makes some white people scared. My MIL talks about her like she is the devil. Just like she did Stacy Abrams.

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[wustin]

A local USPS defied court orders and "lost" 300K ballots in 12 districts.

Also just learned Texas only has one drop in box for ballots to serve over a million people.

Thanks DeJoy.

[timmynausea]

Betting markets moving hard toward Trump in Florida today, with lesser moves toward Trump in Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina, but Biden has held strong in the Midwest and gotten stronger in Pennsylvania.... if it even means much.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by timmynausea

Betting markets moving hard toward Trump in Florida today, with lesser moves toward Trump in Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina, but Biden has held strong in the Midwest and gotten stronger in Pennsylvania.... if it even means much.

I think this supports the underlying numbers over the last week or so TBH. If PA is close that’s a real problem for Biden.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by wustin

A local USPS defied court orders and "lost" 300K ballots in 12 districts.

Also just learned Texas only has one drop in box for ballots to serve over a million people.

Thanks DeJoy.

Incredible just how hard one side will go to not count votes.

[Edward64]

Com'on TV precinct poll reporters, do you really need to wear a mask when doing your report outside? Take the damn test and there's no one around you other than your camera wo/man and surely you can stay 6 ft away.

[Swaggs]

Whoever the dems nominated was always going to get labeled as a radical socialist. I think it didn’t stick on Biden because he’s so well known, so it was easy to sidestep to claiming he’s demented or in poor health and Harris will really be the radical lefty mastermind.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by timmynausea

Betting markets moving hard toward Trump in Florida today, with lesser moves toward Trump in Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina, but Biden has held strong in the Midwest and gotten stronger in Pennsylvania.... if it even means much.

Huh? I bought FL and NC and both are trending blue today.

[timmynausea]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Huh? I bought FL and NC and both are trending blue today.

I'm talking about offshore sports betting markets. I mostly look at Pinnacle as they have the reputation as the sharpest.

[Lathum]

7:00, here come the big ones

[GrantDawg]

Kentucky got called for Trump. Surprise, surprise

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[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Kentucky got called for Trump. Surprise, surprise

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Indiana, too! Trump in a rout!

SI

[sterlingice]

It's going to be a shutout even!



Oh wait, it's just Indiana and Kentucky.



SI

[Ksyrup]

I am just reading my twitter feed and seeing such conflicting information. It's crazy. Don't know what to make of any of it. Roller coaster for sure.

[Brian Swartz]

What are all of you using as your source for results. Asking because NBC isn't calling Kentucky yet.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

What are all of you using as your source for results. Asking because NBC isn't calling Kentucky yet.

Neither is CNN. Just IN for Trump

[Brian Swartz]

Also Florida gonna Florida, 40 pct in and a gap of 8k. Grab yet popcorn

[Lathum]

Biden is done in Florida. He isn't going to get enough of Miami. The Latinos didn't come out for him. Socialist message got through.