POTUS 2024 - Harris vs Trump - General Election Discussion

[Ksyrup]

So the GOP should be happy that public schools aren't teaching cursive anymore! Seriously, both of my kids' signatures look like a 5 year old trying to use a pen for the first time.

[GrantDawg]

Trump said today this will be his last election regardless of outcome. I will once again say "from his mouth to God's ear."

[GrantDawg]

Stat stolen from another: "he Trump campaign spent $134.38 on anti-trans ads for every single trans person that actually exists"

[Thomkal]

The Capital Police have arrested a man at the Capitol Visitor Center who smelled like fuel and had a torch and flare gun on him-no other details yet.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Trump said today this will be his last election regardless of outcome. I will once again say "from his mouth to God's ear."

This feels like very much a "be careful what you wish for" statement

[GrantDawg]

A Trump appointed Federal judge once threw out a challenge from the GOP of mail in ballots that were accepted by several metro Atlants counties. Note, there were red counties that accepted ballots over the weekend as well, but they only challenged the blue counties. The judge basically read the GP lawyers the riot act. He pointed out that indiscrepancy, while pointing out the clear reading of Georgia law makes accepting mail in ballots over the weekend completely legal. Then he said:
""When a lawyer speaks, this court expects that the lawyer and their clients present nothing more than the truth. Our system of justice demands it. P's counsel missed that mark in this case."


He also said: "Complaint lacked "a basic level of statutory review and reading comprehension."



Lawyers, is it good when a judge says that about your case?

[cartman]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Stat stolen from another: "he Trump campaign spent $134.38 on anti-trans ads for every single trans person that actually exists"

Cruz is several multiple of this for Texas

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

This feels like very much a "be careful what you wish for" statement

Exactly what I was thinking!

[GrantDawg]

Again, this is why if you can you should vote in person:
Pennsylvania ballot challenges add pressure to election officials : NPR

[Arles]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Stat stolen from another: "he Trump campaign spent $134.38 on anti-trans ads for every single trans person that actually exists"

There have been a ton here and that ad is one of the worst ads I've ever seen when it comes to human decency. Deplorable

[Ksyrup]

Is that the one that combines immigration and trans surgery? That's the one I remember.

[Arles]

It's the one that says Harris will pay for trans surgery for prisoners and then alludes to the idea that every trans adult is trying to playing against 5th grade girls in basketball. It also makes every trans person appear to be the bearded lady from some kind of circus. It's pretty rough.

[Ksyrup]

Yes, that's the one.

[cartman]

the Trump Media stock fell around 15% right before closing, and trading had to be halted on it three separate times.

[RainMaker]

Didn't they try that stuff in 2022 and it failed spectacularly? I guess I get it if you're micro-targeting some closeted members of your base, but I've yet to come across a person in real life who has ever given a shit. That ad has been playing in Illinois too so it must be a national buy of some sort.

I think most of the Harris campaign has been terrible but their ads tying Trump to Musk I thought was very good. Talks about how he is doing this for billionaires and they cut to Musk in a tuxedo a few times. They've been consistent on ads about the economy which I think helps while Trump is doing ads on transgender and immigration.

[GrantDawg]

So it begins. The good news is, Trump's people are thinking he is losing Pennsylvania.


This was going to be a post with Trump saying there is massive cheating in Philadelphia, but I suddenly can't get tweets to share.

https://x.com/marceelias/status/1853921743502520373

[RainMaker]

Who called out Wisconsin because you hit the nail on the head!

BREAKING: Milwaukee is going to recount every absentee ballot that had been counted because of this issue. They had already tabulated 30,000 ballots.

The count will go very late https://t.co/fqEzmHHnRt

— Alexander Shur (@AlexanderShur) November 5, 2024

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

So it begins. The good news is, Trump's people are thinking he is losing Pennsylvania.

This was going to be a post with Trump saying there is massive cheating in Philadelphia, but I suddenly can't get tweets to share.

x.com

Someone told him that Philly turnout is through the roof according to reports. And wouldn't you know it, the Puerto Rican neighborhoods are leading the way.

It wasn't really in play but it seems like turnout is very high in Florida for Republicans.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Didn't they try that stuff in 2022 and it failed spectacularly? I guess I get it if you're micro-targeting some closeted members of your base, but I've yet to come across a person in real life who has ever given a shit. That ad has been playing in Illinois too so it must be a national buy of some sort.

I think it is very targeted. It motivate a very specific type of voter. Once Harris got in, Trump pretty much stopped trying to persuade, and went all in on motivating turn out. Nothing scares old people and men more than trans people.

[Brian Swartz]

Are we still on the 'high turnout is a great win for democracy' bandwagon no matter who wins?

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Are we still on the 'high turnout is a great win for democracy' bandwagon no matter who wins?

Me personally? Yes. I'm against voter suppression whether the voter votes with me or not.

[GrantDawg]

This one may be good. Most other exit polls stuff doesn't say much, but if this pans out....

2024 Reuters/Edison Exit Poll by Gender:

Female 53% (+1 from 2020)
Male 47% (-1)

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 5, 2024

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

This was going to be a post with Trump saying there is massive cheating in Philadelphia, but I suddenly can't get tweets to share.

A few days ago I noticed that I could no longer share tweets through the quick reply option—the submission would just hang. It works if I go through preview/advanced, because that method checks for humanness. I assume it is trying to verify this for the quick post as well but can’t.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

A few days ago I noticed that I could no longer share tweets through the quick reply option—the submission would just hang. It works if I go through preview/advanced, because that method checks for humanness. I assume it is trying to verify this for the quick post as well but can’t.

I have had that problem, but this was twitter. It wouldn't give me the embed. It has just been doing that today. I don't know if it is because their hamster is getting tired, or if Musk isn't throttling certain posters.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Me personally? Yes. I'm against voter suppression whether the voter votes with me or not.

Yep. Another thing that turns me off the GOP these days is the automatic attempt to discount every vote they can, usually in targeted areas they know they will do poorly.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Are we still on the 'high turnout is a great win for democracy' bandwagon no matter who wins?

yes. The more people who vote the more it cancels out the fringes on both sides.

[Solecismic]

Our Senate race has apparently generated twice as much spending as any other Senate race. So it has been non-stop Moreno/Brown ads here, often going back and forth twice in a single commercial break.

Yes, the Republican message is all about immigration and trans people in locker rooms. You'd think they'd switch it up once people had seen the same ad 40-50 times. They don't.

I am confident Moreno has earned the vote of every single person in Ohio who thinks of nothing but locker rooms. He has achieved a perfect score in the locker-room-is-my-number-one-issue metric.

I'm not an expert in campaign strategy by any means, but I would think if you're going to spend $200 million on your campaign, you'd want to tape 20-30 different commercials. And if you can't think of 20-30 reasons why you're the better candidate, find another vocation.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Are we still on the 'high turnout is a great win for democracy' bandwagon no matter who wins?

Yes. But not sure we're going to beat 2020.

Voter turnout in United States presidential elections - Wikipedia

2000 - 50.5%
2004 - 55.7%
2008 - 57.1%
2012 - 53.8%
2016 - 54.8%
2020 - 62.8%

[Ksyrup]

Covid required us to make it easier to vote in 2020 and that's why a Democrat won. And why the GOP tries so hard to restrict voting options under the guise of "security."

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

This one may be good. Most other exit polls stuff doesn't say much, but if this pans out....



Is that election day vote only? Because the gender gap in the early voting was really big in some states. It was like 10% in Michigan.

[dubb93]

Apache County Arizona had voters leave without voting due to the lines due to issues with the machines today. They just said the county went heavy blue in 2020.

[JPhillips]

We get a lot of House commercials here in NY and all of the GOPers are running with protect women's sports arguments.

[RainMaker]

This is a cool site. Shows the shifts in real time per county. Might be a nice gauge. Early results showing a few point swing to Demoxrats in rural counties in Indiana and Kentucky.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elect...ntial-results/

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Is that election day vote only? Because the gender gap in the early voting was really big in some states. It was like 10% in Michigan.

Pretty sure these are election day.

[GrantDawg]

30 noncredible bomb threats, including 17 in Georgia polling places, all coming from Russian email domains.

[GrantDawg]

Early votes coming in from rural Indiana is showing Trump under performing 2020.

[GrantDawg]

This is a direct attack on our election:

Five more polling places in DeKalb County have received bomb threats. Voting has been suspended at those precincts. This is a deliberate attempt to prevent Americans from casting ballots. FBI has linked today’s previous threats to Russians. Official release below@ATLNewsFirst pic.twitter.com/BfggjZqzQR

— Brendan Keefe - Atlanta News First (@BrendanKeefe) November 5, 2024

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Early votes coming in from rural Indiana is showing Trump under performing 2020.

Yeah I've been tracking the site and wondering if Indiana counts early votes first or all together. Almost every county has a pretty big shift left.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Pretty sure these are election day.

If that's election day, he's so cooked.

[GrantDawg]

Ummmm...stop getting me excited.

��Hamilton County, Indiana��

�� Kamala Harris - 50%

�� Donald Trump - 48.8%

66% expected votes in

(Trump won this county by 7 points in 2020)

— The Political HQ (@ThePoliticalHQ) November 5, 2024

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

This is a cool site. Shows the shifts in real time per county. Might be a nice gauge. Early results showing a few point swing to Demoxrats in rural counties in Indiana and Kentucky.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elect...ntial-results/

Yeah, this is helpful. I live right next to Franklin County, KY. It went Trump by 248 votes in 2020, right now running D+5. I'm hoping to see a similar trend in my county and others around Lexington. Not that it's going to matter for KY, but maybe a harbinger of a larger trend which might matter elsewhere.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Ummmm...stop getting me excited.

Election's over then, Harris is president-elect, /thread.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Ummmm...stop getting me excited.

��Hamilton County, Indiana��

�� Kamala Harris - 50%

�� Donald Trump - 48.8%

66% expected votes in

(Trump won this county by 7 points in 2020)

— The Political HQ (@ThePoliticalHQ) November 5, 2024

Hamilton county is rapidly developing. I’d wonder how much the demos have changed in four years.

[Ksyrup]

What's in Rush County, IN? Only 36% reporting, but a D+79 right now. Damn!

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

What's in Rush County, IN? Only 36% reporting, but a D+79 right now. Damn!

Me and Trump is going to win about 75% here if I were guessing. So I’d caution that those have to be super early numbers.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Rainmaker

This is a cool site. Shows the shifts in real time per county. Might be a nice gauge. Early results showing a few point swing to Demoxrats in rural counties in Indiana and Kentucky.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elect...ntial-results/

Thanks for the link. It looks from the limited info so far that Indiana has a big Democratic shift, while Kentucky has some shifts in each direction that basically cancel out. Why that would be I have no idea, but I'll put my lot in with the obligatory 'too early to tell' that always happens for about the next hour or so.

[Ksyrup]

There must be one big extended family all voting D and had their votes counted early, lol.

[Lathum]

This 7:00 dump will be telling and has me very nervous

[Brian Swartz]

Idle conjecture; part of me wonders if this will just be one of those elections with unexpected shifts, a la 2016. I.e. some parts of the country and of individual states shifting Republican, but others shifting Democrat, and assumptions on 'bellwether counties' just not really holding up.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Me and Trump is going to win about 75% here if I were guessing. So I’d caution that those have to be super early numbers.

Yeah it just pulled back close to even.