2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

Fox News called Virginia for Biden almost an hour ago.

yeah, it is just weird because Trump is leading all be it with a small percentage reporting

[Brian Swartz]

Lathum, I'm seeing several Senate races called on all the sites, and most not just like with the states. Is there something specific you are looking for?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Lathum, I'm seeing several Senate races called on all the sites, and most not just like with the states. Is there something specific you are looking for?

Just surprised noting on CNN on TV. Wondering about Jamie Harrison

[Brian Swartz]

Gotcha. I'm seeing a 15k vote lead for Harrison, but only 7% of the vote and no decision yet.

[Lathum]

I am on the NYT site now

[Atocep]

Biden is overperforming by a considerable amount in Texas so far. Yes its incredibly early but Trump carrying Denton County by only 7 is a big deal.

[Brian Swartz]

Still super-early, but Biden's NYT odds in NC just went down to 56%. If Trump wins Georgia and NC, that's when I'll get worried.

[Swaggs]

I’m not feeling great that the best news we have is that Biden is kind of doing okay in Texas and Ohio and that NC is still a possibility (per the NYT Needle).

[tarcone]

I will say this and be hammered for it, but if Trump wins, Im glad Im a white, heterosexual, married man.

[ISiddiqui]

Biden seems to be doing better in Ohio than expected so far.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

[cuervo72]

NC now "tilting Trump."

[Brian Swartz]

60% in NC, 56% Trump odds per NYT. .

This is fine. I really like it here. I absolutely do not in any way need a sedative.

[Vegas Vic]

Slightly off-topic, but I wonder how Bloomberg is feeling about that $100 million he pissed away in Florida?

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Still super-early, but Biden's NYT odds in NC just went down to 56%. If Trump wins Georgia and NC, that's when I'll get worried.

Same

Ohio is a path I didn't expect opening up but I'm not confident about it

SI

[Ksyrup]

Asheville underperforming for Biden.

This is like deja vu. I don't know if I have another 4 years in me.

[tarcone]

The way this is going, I dont see Ohio going Biden

[RainMaker]

Hispanic voters per *early* 2020 exit polls:

Florida:
2016: Clinton +27
2020: Biden +8

Georgia:
2016: Clinton +40
2020: Biden +25

Ohio:
2016: Clinton +41
2020: Biden +24

— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) November 4, 2020

[Lathum]

Trump is going to win.

Our nation is truly broken

[BillyMadison]

I'm getting nervous. But trying to remember that as these states trickle in that Biden can lose FL, PA, OH, NC, GA, AND Texas... and still win. That was my original prediction.

2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map


But my question is this: WHY OH WHY are the polls and staticians SO bad at this?

[tarcone]

Hate to pat my back, but I always seemed to tell you guys that people love Trump and will vote for him.

I will say, that I thought a record turn out would favor Biden, but I think even more people are coming out for Trump

[bhlloy]

A tidbit I caught on twitter was that the D vote was very disappointing in Milwaukee as well. It's going to be a very long night (or not, because it's probably obvious what is going to happen in the next 2 hours)

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Hate to pat my back, but I always seemed to tell you guys that people love Trump and will vote for him.

I will say, that I thought a record turn out would favor Biden, but I think even more people are coming out for Trump

They don't really love him. He will lose my millions of votes. Just has the advantage of electoral college.

[kingfc22]

I really hope this doesn’t come down to AZ after seeing FL.

WI, MI, PA seem to be the ticket though.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Asheville underperforming for Biden.

This is like deja vu. I don't know if I have another 4 years in me.

I'm having this sick feeling in my stomach but it's not done yet

SI

[bhlloy]

Also Cunningham is going to lose the Senate race. It's basically hoping that the rest of the country isn't going like the SE at this point for another 4 years of the last 4.

[Brian Swartz]

tarcone, if Trump wins let me be the first to say that will mean you were very right and I was very wrong. I'm a long way from thinking that's likely the way the map shakes out, but if it does ...

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

They don't really love him. He will lose my millions of votes. Just has the advantage of electoral college.

Again, in all the right places

[Brian Swartz]

Rainmaker, thanks for that exit poll on the Hispanic vote. That better not hold up.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

tarcone, if Trump wins let me be the first to say that will mean you were very right and I was very wrong. I'm a long way from thinking that's likely the way the map shakes out, but if it does ...

I'll second this

SI

[Brian Swartz]

I find the difference in who calls what when to be fascinating. NYT generally calling races faster than NBC, but they still haven't called Indiana when the others seemed to have gone there a long time ago. I wonder why.

[Lathum]

This has gone from talking about all the paths Biden has to victory to the precise thing he needs to win.

[Brian Swartz]

Unfortunately, if this continues the main thing he will need is better lawyers than Trump has.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Asheville underperforming for Biden.

This is like deja vu. I don't know if I have another 4 years in me.

I thought that at first. But if this election goes south, I am going to be powered by pure anger the next four years. And when things go bad -- and they will -- I will be screaming we told you motherfuckers all the way.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Unfortunately, if this continues the main thing he will need is better lawyers than Trump has.

Not where anyone wants to be

SI

[Brian Swartz]

NYT reporting this astounding exit poll in Florida: 42% are better off than 4 years ago, 20% worse off.

In the middle of a pandemic and an attached severe recession, 2:1 they say they are better off. There is a massive disconnect here if this isn't an isolated or unreliable result.

[BillyMadison]

It's just absolutely unreal how bad the pollsters/data experts/pundits are. The issue too is that because of the nature of statistics any outcome of course has a small chance of happening and there is always plausible deniability that "well our models actually said Trump had a 10% chance and that 10% just so happened so our models were actually SPOT ON." (Not saying that Trump won yet, but...) It's ridiculous. They have the easiest job in the planet because I could have made a "model" that gave Trump a 10% chance and hidden behind the fact that "well the data and model was actually correct"!

Voting is not a "random chance" event. It's inherently NOT. It's people making intentional choice. Basically the opposite of "luck" or "chance."
In which case using models that predict "random chance" maybe isn't a good idea for something that "random chance" has no bearing on.

How many times are people going to go along with these polls and data experts when their models are way off time and again?

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

I thought that at first. But if this election goes south, I am going to be powered by pure anger the next four years. And when things go bad -- and they will -- I will be screaming we told you motherfuckers all the way.

But it's truly what half the country wants! That's what I can't deal with.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

But it's truly what half the country wants! That's what I can't deal with.

exactly. We are living Idiocricy

[Brian Swartz]

Agreed KSyrup. At a certain level, I think this; if this many people still want Trump, and the election doesn't turn the other way hard later tonight, at a certain level it's more about the fact that this is who we are as a country than who wins this election in this moment. If this isn't just that steady 35-40% but half of the nation or super-close to it ... we may have tipped already. And their may be no earthly way of righting the ship.

[BillyMadison]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

NYT reporting this astounding exit poll in Florida: 42% are better off than 4 years ago, 20% worse off.

In the middle of a pandemic and an attached severe recession, 2:1 they say they are better off. There is a massive disconnect here if this isn't an isolated or unreliable result.

Are those just in-person voters (obv more Red) though? Or did exit polls poll the mail-in voters who are more favorable for Biden?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

NYT reporting this astounding exit poll in Florida: 42% are better off than 4 years ago, 20% worse off.

In the middle of a pandemic and an attached severe recession, 2:1 they say they are better off. There is a massive disconnect here if this isn't an isolated or unreliable result.

Probably because of higher % of retirees (likely wealthier) and they aren't in the nursing homes.

[ISiddiqui]

Why in the world doesn't NYT have a needle for Pennsylvania? I kinda get not doing Ohio, but not PA? What?

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[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Agreed KSyrup. At a certain level, I think this; if this many people still want Trump, and the election doesn't turn the other way hard later tonight, at a certain level it's more about the fact that this is who we are as a country than who wins this election in this moment. If this isn't just that steady 35-40% but half of the nation or super-close to it ... we may have tipped already. And their may be no earthly way of righting the ship.

Yup. This isn't the country I want to live in. And that's coming from a place of sadness not anger, but we've already decided we'll be in Switzerland or the UK in 6 months most likely.

(cue bye Felicia memes, but that's honestly the way I feel)

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by Lathum

This has gone from talking about all the paths Biden has to victory to the precise thing he needs to win.

Yep. Time for glass of wine #4

[Lathum]

Botonline just moved to favorite in Ohio -130

[Ben E Lou]

Biden looking strong in OH, and I don't know what to think about TX.

[Brian Swartz]

I don't know but either way honestly it is still astounding.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Rainmaker, thanks for that exit poll on the Hispanic vote. That better not hold up.

Biden getting crushed on the Rio Grande. Texas is toast for him too.

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by Lathum

exactly. We are living Idiocricy

No, we are living in a whitecentric country that knows they will be in a minority in 30 years, so they better get theirs now before its too late.

[molson]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Why in the world doesn't NYT have a needle for Pennsylvania? I kinda get not doing Ohio, but not PA? What?

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

They explained it a few days ago, it has something to do with the manner in which votes are reported, not which states are most important. PA is kind of a mess in terms of order of and timeliness of different kinds of voting.