POTUS 2024 - Harris vs Trump - General Election Discussion - Page 117

Brian Swartz · 11-05-2024, 07:06 PM

Looking more and more like something was put in the water in Indiana.

Ksyrup · 11-05-2024, 07:11 PM

GA initial returns not positive. FL appears ready to fully plunge into deep red territory.

Lathum · 11-05-2024, 07:13 PM

CNN reporting independents in Georgia swung 20 points from +9 in 2020 for Biden to +11 for Trump. If that is the case she is cooked. Call it now.

Brian Swartz · 11-05-2024, 07:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KSyrup

GA initial returns not positive. FL appears ready to fully plunge into deep red territory.

I will not panic.
I will not panic.
I will not panic.
I will not panic.
I will not ...

GrantDawg · 11-05-2024, 07:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

GA initial returns not positive. FL appears ready to fully plunge into deep red territory.

I'm not seeing that. Georgia votes are actually looking ok right now, but still very early.

Brian Swartz · 11-05-2024, 07:21 PM

Maybe a different source? What are you using to track?

GrantDawg · 11-05-2024, 07:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Maybe a different source? What are you using to track?

SOS website, and professional analyst from people who know the state. Like so:

Ksyrup · 11-05-2024, 07:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I'm not seeing that. Georgia votes are actually looking ok right now, but still very early.

Independents swung toward Trump bigly.

GrantDawg · 11-05-2024, 07:24 PM

There are also a number of red counties showing Trump slipping 1-5%.

GrantDawg · 11-05-2024, 07:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Independents swung toward Trump bigly.

I'm not concerned about exit polls. For the most part the ear;y exits are usually off.

Lathum · 11-05-2024, 07:26 PM

I just got a very bad feeling...

cuervo72 · 11-05-2024, 07:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

There are also a number of red counties showing Trump slipping 1-5%.

Yes, this is what ABC just drilled down to. Harris running ahead of Biden in a few counties. Early, but hopeful there.

Brian Swartz · 11-05-2024, 07:27 PM

There are a number of counties with a red shift in Georgia also. It looks unclear to me

CrimsonFox · 11-05-2024, 07:28 PM

woopwoop

GrantDawg · 11-05-2024, 07:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

There are a number of counties with a red shift in Georgia also. It looks unclear to me

Can you point them out? I'm seeing red counties running under Trumps counts in 2020. I haven't seen a red swing anywhere yet.

Lathum · 11-05-2024, 07:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I'm not concerned about exit polls. For the most part the ear;y exits are usually off.

by 20 points?

Ksyrup · 11-05-2024, 07:33 PM

Miami Dade numbers are eye-popping.

As far as GA, nearly all the counties reporting votes on that WaPo map have shifted even further red.

Ksyrup · 11-05-2024, 07:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Can you point them out? I'm seeing red counties running under Trumps counts in 2020. I haven't seen a red swing anywhere yet.

On the WaPo map, GA looks like it's getting hit with a bnuch of tornadoes.

Brian Swartz · 11-05-2024, 07:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Can you point them out? I'm seeing red counties running under Trumps counts in 2020. I haven't seen a red swing anywhere yet.

According to the Post site Rainmaker linked there's at least like 15 of them. Some that seem possibly significant:

- Taylor (+45 Trump, +27 in '20)
- Decatur (+29 Trump, +17 in '20)
- Randolph (-1 Trump, -9 in '20)
- Lanier (+50 Trump, +42 in '20)
- McDuffie (+34 Trump, +19 in '20)

and similar.

Solecismic · 11-05-2024, 07:37 PM

My sense is Georgia is running a little bit toward Harris when using the polls as a basis. I'm seeing about 6,000 total less Trump votes from the counties reporting more than 50% turnout than I had expected.

If that trend continues, Georgia goes down to the wire.

Early, though, and no idea what remains to be counted from the counties reporting a significant number of votes.

Brian Swartz · 11-05-2024, 07:40 PM

The main pattern I see is likely even worse polarization than in '20. Red areas getting more red, blue areas getting more blue. That's something we don't need.

Ksyrup · 11-05-2024, 07:42 PM

There isn't one speck of blue on the FL WaPo map yet. Not even for Harris to gain a point in a 60% Trump county. Even Leon County, the only blue county in the panhandle, is running 5 points behind Biden's pace (still will be blue but ... sheesh).

cuervo72 · 11-05-2024, 07:47 PM

Oh, Florida is long gone. (Some have joked that the state is becoming a “red heat sink”, which, fine by me.)

Brian Swartz · 11-05-2024, 07:48 PM

Ohio is the opposite. Appears to be blue-shifting similar to Indiana. It would have to be an awfully big shift for it to be competitive though ...

Ghost Econ · 11-05-2024, 07:52 PM

Every conservative from Ohio moves to South Carolina or Florida once they have kids. Pretty sure there's more Buckeye fans in SC than Gamecock fans.

GrantDawg · 11-05-2024, 07:54 PM

Mark Robinson has lost his governor race. Hard hit to all the Black Nazis out there.

RainMaker · 11-05-2024, 07:56 PM

In counties that have gotten all votes counted or close, he's running much better than in 2020. Those Liz Cheney voters didn't pan out in the rural areas it seems. Who'd have thought?

Vegas Vic · 11-05-2024, 07:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I'm not concerned about exit polls. For the most part the ear;y exits are usually off.

John Kerry agrees.

GrantDawg · 11-05-2024, 07:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker

In counties that have gotten all votes counted or close, he's running much better than in 2020. Those Liz Cheney voters didn't pan out in the rural areas it seems. Who'd have thought?

She never would. Her appeal is in the suburban Republican circle.

larrymcg421 · 11-05-2024, 07:58 PM

PredictIt up to .65 for Trump

RainMaker · 11-05-2024, 07:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

She never would. Her appeal is in the suburban Republican circle.

About that.

kingfc22 · 11-05-2024, 08:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Oh, Florida is long gone. (Some have joked that the state is becoming a “red heat sink”, which, fine by me.)

Theory they mentioned on TV is that hard right leaning MAGA folks are flocking to Florida potentially making other states more competitve as the red votes move out and into a singular state like Florida.

Electoral College math

Lathum · 11-05-2024, 08:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

PredictIt up to .65 for Trump

Robinhood at .67 for Trump.

Feels a lot like 2016

Lathum · 11-05-2024, 08:08 PM

He's pulling away in Georgia

RainMaker · 11-05-2024, 08:09 PM

Maybe my call of Harris EV win and Trump popular vote win will come to fruition. The funiest possible outcome.

Brian Swartz · 11-05-2024, 08:09 PM

The Panic Is Strong With You.

I'm not there yet. I think there are good and bad signs.

Ksyrup · 11-05-2024, 08:09 PM

If you discount the 8M illegals who regularly vote against Trump in CA, he should be president of the moon!

RainMaker · 11-05-2024, 08:10 PM

Holy shit he's going to win Miami-Dade

Ksyrup · 11-05-2024, 08:11 PM

Yeah, FL is insane,

Lathum · 11-05-2024, 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Holy shit he's going to win Miami-Dade

+18.

She's cooked

RainMaker · 11-05-2024, 08:13 PM

Maybe Loudon was an error.

Loudoun County seems to be a data error - it went down to 96% reported after it showed 99% reported in WaPo. It seems like in NovA EV votes also come last and they usually report late, so most likely the reported figure is a data error — Libnex (@Libnex_) November 6, 2024

GrantDawg · 11-05-2024, 08:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Maybe Loudon was an error.

I saw somebody say that was likely.

Brian Swartz · 11-05-2024, 08:18 PM

Anybody have a link or source to turnout comparisons?

Brian Swartz · 11-05-2024, 08:19 PM

Ohio blue-shift continues. 37% in, Harris is up by 45k (51-49%). Just sayin'.

GrantDawg · 11-05-2024, 08:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Ohio blue-shift continues. 37% in, Harris is up by 45k (51-49%). Just sayin'.

Heard people say if there was a blue shift in Iowa, then there would be one in Ohio. May be a sign?

kingfc22 · 11-05-2024, 08:23 PM

Feels like the rust belt and NC will be where she needs to win. GA not looking to hot

RainMaker · 11-05-2024, 08:23 PM

The one maybe bright spot for you in Georgia is that it seems like the early voting is not skewed heavily blue like it was in the past. Seems like election day vote is much bluer.

JonInMiddleGA · 11-05-2024, 08:24 PM

While I don't count it as a harbinger of the overall, I am most definitely pleased to see Miami-Dade avoiding regression.

I was really quite concerned about that.

GrantDawg · 11-05-2024, 08:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker

The one maybe bright spot for you in Georgia is that it seems like the early voting is not skewed heavily blue like it was in the past. Seems like election day vote is much bluer.

And so far only one percent reporting from Gwinnett and Dekalb. Big shift once they report.

RainMaker · 11-05-2024, 08:28 PM

Seems like it might be tough to compare 2020 to 2024 until counties have fully reported. Republicans seem to be voting early more now and Democrats may not be using VBM as much. COVID sort of made everything weird.

11-05-2024, 07:11 PM	#5802
Ksyrup This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off. Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: In Absentia	GA initial returns not positive. FL appears ready to fully plunge into deep red territory. __________________ M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete."

11-05-2024, 07:33 PM	#5817
Ksyrup This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off. Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: In Absentia	Miami Dade numbers are eye-popping. As far as GA, nearly all the counties reporting votes on that WaPo map have shifted even further red. __________________ M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete."

11-05-2024, 07:40 PM	#5821
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	The main pattern I see is likely even worse polarization than in '20. Red areas getting more red, blue areas getting more blue. That's something we don't need. Last edited by Brian Swartz : 11-05-2024 at 07:41 PM.

11-05-2024, 07:42 PM	#5822
Ksyrup This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off. Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: In Absentia	There isn't one speck of blue on the FL WaPo map yet. Not even for Harris to gain a point in a 60% Trump county. Even Leon County, the only blue county in the panhandle, is running 5 points behind Biden's pace (still will be blue but ... sheesh). __________________ M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete."

11-05-2024, 07:47 PM	#5823
cuervo72 Head Coach Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Maryland	Oh, Florida is long gone. (Some have joked that the state is becoming a “red heat sink”, which, fine by me.) __________________ null

11-05-2024, 07:06 PM	#5801
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Looking more and more like something was put in the water in Indiana.

11-05-2024, 07:13 PM	#5803
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	CNN reporting independents in Georgia swung 20 points from +9 in 2020 for Biden to +11 for Trump. If that is the case she is cooked. Call it now.

11-05-2024, 07:21 PM	#5806
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Maybe a different source? What are you using to track?

11-05-2024, 07:24 PM	#5809
GrantDawg World Champion Mis-speller Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Covington, Ga.	There are also a number of red counties showing Trump slipping 1-5%.

11-05-2024, 07:26 PM	#5811
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	I just got a very bad feeling...

11-05-2024, 07:27 PM	#5813
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	There are a number of counties with a red shift in Georgia also. It looks unclear to me

11-05-2024, 07:28 PM	#5814
CrimsonFox Head Coach Join Date: Dec 2009	woopwoop

11-05-2024, 07:37 PM	#5820
Solecismic Solecismic Software Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Canton, OH	My sense is Georgia is running a little bit toward Harris when using the polls as a basis. I'm seeing about 6,000 total less Trump votes from the counties reporting more than 50% turnout than I had expected. If that trend continues, Georgia goes down to the wire. Early, though, and no idea what remains to be counted from the counties reporting a significant number of votes.

11-05-2024, 07:48 PM	#5824
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Ohio is the opposite. Appears to be blue-shifting similar to Indiana. It would have to be an awfully big shift for it to be competitive though ...

11-05-2024, 07:52 PM	#5825
Ghost Econ College Prospect Join Date: Oct 2020	Every conservative from Ohio moves to South Carolina or Florida once they have kids. Pretty sure there's more Buckeye fans in SC than Gamecock fans.

11-05-2024, 07:54 PM	#5826
GrantDawg World Champion Mis-speller Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Covington, Ga.	Mark Robinson has lost his governor race. Hard hit to all the Black Nazis out there. Last edited by GrantDawg : 11-05-2024 at 07:55 PM.

11-05-2024, 07:56 PM	#5827
RainMaker Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: Chicago, IL	In counties that have gotten all votes counted or close, he's running much better than in 2020. Those Liz Cheney voters didn't pan out in the rural areas it seems. Who'd have thought?

11-05-2024, 07:58 PM	#5830
larrymcg421 Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Georgia	PredictIt up to .65 for Trump __________________ Top 10 Songs of the Year 1955-Present (1976 Added) Franchise Portfolio Draft Winner Fictional Character Draft Winner Television Family Draft Winner Build Your Own Hollywood Studio Draft Winner

11-05-2024, 08:08 PM	#5834
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	He's pulling away in Georgia

11-05-2024, 08:09 PM	#5835
RainMaker Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: Chicago, IL	Maybe my call of Harris EV win and Trump popular vote win will come to fruition. The funiest possible outcome.

11-05-2024, 08:09 PM	#5836
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	The Panic Is Strong With You. I'm not there yet. I think there are good and bad signs.

11-05-2024, 08:09 PM	#5837
Ksyrup This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off. Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: In Absentia	If you discount the 8M illegals who regularly vote against Trump in CA, he should be president of the moon! __________________ M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." Last edited by Ksyrup : 11-05-2024 at 08:10 PM.

11-05-2024, 08:10 PM	#5838
RainMaker Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: Chicago, IL	Holy shit he's going to win Miami-Dade

11-05-2024, 08:11 PM	#5839
Ksyrup This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off. Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: In Absentia	Yeah, FL is insane, __________________ M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete."

11-05-2024, 08:13 PM	#5841
RainMaker Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: Chicago, IL	Maybe Loudon was an error. `Loudoun County seems to be a data error - it went down to 96% reported after it showed 99% reported in WaPo. It seems like in NovA EV votes also come last and they usually report late, so most likely the reported figure is a data error — Libnex (@Libnex_) November 6, 2024`

11-05-2024, 08:18 PM	#5843
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Anybody have a link or source to turnout comparisons?

11-05-2024, 08:19 PM	#5844
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Ohio blue-shift continues. 37% in, Harris is up by 45k (51-49%). Just sayin'.

11-05-2024, 08:23 PM	#5846
kingfc22 Head Coach Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Morgan Hill, CA	Feels like the rust belt and NC will be where she needs to win. GA not looking to hot __________________ Fan of SF Giants, 49ers, Sharks, Arsenal

11-05-2024, 08:23 PM	#5847
RainMaker Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: Chicago, IL	The one maybe bright spot for you in Georgia is that it seems like the early voting is not skewed heavily blue like it was in the past. Seems like election day vote is much bluer.

11-05-2024, 08:24 PM	#5848
JonInMiddleGA Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Behind Enemy Lines in Athens, GA	While I don't count it as a harbinger of the overall, I am most definitely pleased to see Miami-Dade avoiding regression. I was really quite concerned about that. __________________ "I lit another cigarette. Unless I specifically inform you to the contrary, I am always lighting another cigarette." - from a novel by Martin Amis

11-05-2024, 08:28 PM	#5850
RainMaker Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: Chicago, IL	Seems like it might be tough to compare 2020 to 2024 until counties have fully reported. Republicans seem to be voting early more now and Democrats may not be using VBM as much. COVID sort of made everything weird.

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