2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread - Page 118

sabotai · 11-03-2020, 08:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Why in the world doesn't NYT have a needle for Pennsylvania? I kinda get not doing Ohio, but not PA? What?

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

I think it's because PA won't start counting a large portion (some counties, all) of their mail in ballots until tomorrow, so having a needle seems pointless. We won't know the results from PA for days, if not a week.

Vegas Vic · 11-03-2020, 08:00 PM

Fox News analytics now shows Biden with an 89% chance of winning North Carolina.

JPhillips · 11-03-2020, 08:01 PM

I think TX is done. Lots of rural areas still out.

Ben E Lou · 11-03-2020, 08:01 PM

NC NYT number seems weird. 74% of vote in and Biden up 51-47, but still showing 79% Trump?

JPhillips · 11-03-2020, 08:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

Fox News analytics now shows Biden with an 89% chance of winning North Carolina.

Yeah, I don't get the arrow on the NYTimes site still heavily favoring Trump.

Brian Swartz · 11-03-2020, 08:01 PM

Vote totals seem to be tracking with at least a 65% turnout, quite possibly higher with the late-counted ones. That part is good news.

sterlingice · 11-03-2020, 08:02 PM

WTH is going on with the Virginia reporting?

SI

Brian Swartz · 11-03-2020, 08:03 PM

Biden's NC lead is steadily going down, so perhaps they expect it to continue to do that based on where the outstanding vote is. Very weird to have NYT leaning that far Trump though and Fox leaning Biden. .

Ben E Lou · 11-03-2020, 08:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

Fox News analytics now shows Biden with an 89% chance of winning North Carolina.

heh....so I'm not the only one that thinks that NYT projection is a little strange...

ISiddiqui · 11-03-2020, 08:03 PM

The NYT needle is really confusing me as well. I also just saw that metro Atlanta is much more Biden than Clinton and a lot of Fulton County absentee won't be counted for hours due to the water main break in State Farm.

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sabotai · 11-03-2020, 08:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Yup. This isn't the country I want to live in. And that's coming from a place of sadness not anger, but we've already decided we'll be in Switzerland or the UK in 6 months most likely.

(cue bye Felicia memes, but that's honestly the way I feel)

At least you have that option. I've spent my adulthood failing at life, so I doubt there's any country out there that would take me.

(Not that Donald alone would make that decision for me. I'm about 99% there on wanting to live abroad for a good chunk of my life anyway)

JPhillips · 11-03-2020, 08:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

heh....so I'm not the only one that thinks that NYT projection is a little strange...

It just went up to 81% Trump.

Ben E Lou · 11-03-2020, 08:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Biden's NC lead is steadily going down, so perhaps they expect it to continue to do that based on where the outstanding vote is. Very weird to have NYT leaning that far Trump though and Fox leaning Biden. .

51-48 now at 75%. Maybe same-day votes only are coming in now?

Brian Swartz · 11-03-2020, 08:05 PM

One of the two is going to feel really stupid when we figure out what it is that NC did.

bhlloy · 11-03-2020, 08:05 PM

CNN is really bullish on NC for Biden as well from what I'm overhearing from the other room, so somebody is wrong.

bob · 11-03-2020, 08:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Yup. This isn't the country I want to live in. And that's coming from a place of sadness not anger, but we've already decided we'll be in Switzerland or the UK in 6 months most likely.

(cue bye Felicia memes, but that's honestly the way I feel)

Easier said than done unless you are already from Europe (maybe you are, I don’t know).

Lathum · 11-03-2020, 08:05 PM

Looks like Graham is pulling away from Harrison

cuervo72 · 11-03-2020, 08:06 PM

I'd like for it to be wrong, but I trust the NYT with numbers a bit more than Fox News.

molson · 11-03-2020, 08:06 PM

This is definitely the most FOFC posters I've seen in one place since, you know, last election. 94 viewers.

bhlloy · 11-03-2020, 08:07 PM

Seeing those exits polls from AZ feels really important right about now

Ghost Econ · 11-03-2020, 08:07 PM

It's over. At least last time I was in Thailand and didn't have to go back to real life for a week.

Lathum · 11-03-2020, 08:07 PM

Wife got offered a role for her company in England. We could live by her sister and our nieces, rent our house, then she would take over as president of N America for a Buffet company when we come back in 2-3 years. Looks pretty damn good right about now.

JPhillips · 11-03-2020, 08:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

51-48 now at 75%. Maybe same-day votes only are coming in now?

NC up to 85% Trump now.

Brian Swartz · 11-03-2020, 08:08 PM

2020 man, 2020. I was just to check in for about half an hour tonight, confirm my expectations, and spend the rest of the evening doing other things.

About that ...

molson · 11-03-2020, 08:08 PM

Predicit crashed. "Closed for Maintenance"

Ben E Lou · 11-03-2020, 08:08 PM

So either Fox News or NYT is just plain broken on NC. Fox is up to 91 Biden. NYT is 85% Trump.

Or maybe both are broken???

Radii · 11-03-2020, 08:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

So either Fox News or NYT is just plain broken on NC. Fox is up to 91 Biden. NYT is 85% Trump.

Or maybe both are broken???

The explanation I'd seen somewhere for the NYT prediction is that the counties that would go Biden came in very early, plus the early voting results, and so there is an expectation for the numbers in the state to slowly swing red throughout the rest of the count.

I'm stunned to see the stark differences between sites/news outlets though.

sabotai · 11-03-2020, 08:11 PM

At ~70% reporting, Biden's lead was at ~200k. With 77% reporting, his lead is down to ~140k.

NYT is pretty sure Trump makes up that ground, and Fox News is pretty sure he doesn't., I guess

Ksyrup · 11-03-2020, 08:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

2020 man, 2020. I was just to check in for about half an hour tonight, confirm my expectations, and spend the rest of the evening doing other things.

About that ...

This seems to be the one thing we all forgot about... 2020. When all else fails, it's still 2020.

Lathum · 11-03-2020, 08:12 PM

Just saw the reporting from HAmilton county in Ohio and I am cautiously optimistic

Vegas Vic · 11-03-2020, 08:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

So either Fox News or NYT is just plain broken on NC. Fox is up to 91 Biden. NYT is 85% Trump.

Or maybe both are broken???

I don’t know. Fox News is using an entirely different model this year that doesn’t use any exit polls in their analysis. They called Virginia almost instantly for Biden after the polls closed there.

Ben E Lou · 11-03-2020, 08:13 PM

78%....50.8-48.1

sterlingice · 11-03-2020, 08:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bhlloy

CNN is really bullish on NC for Biden as well from what I'm overhearing from the other room, so somebody is wrong.

CNN is doing their best to try and make the horse race interesting. I'm having a hard time watching their analysis. NBC, too. It's all about the horse race, not about the likely outcome

SI

MrBug708 · 11-03-2020, 08:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by molson

This is definitely the most FOFC posters I've seen in one place since, you know, last election. 94 viewers.

Im not much of a participator, but I'm a reader

tarcone · 11-03-2020, 08:15 PM

NC going Trump. The rural areas win the election again.

Ben E Lou · 11-03-2020, 08:20 PM

NC: Fox now at 92% Biden, NYT at 88% Trump.

PilotMan · 11-03-2020, 08:21 PM

I am counting on all of you, because I honestly cannot watch.

GrantDawg · 11-03-2020, 08:21 PM

Interesting:BREAKING: THE Fox News Decision Desk can now project that Democrats will retain control of the House of Representatives and expand their majority by at least five seats. — Lauren Blanchard (@LaurenBlanch12) November 4, 2020

Brian Swartz · 11-03-2020, 08:21 PM

Fox also has Georgia going Biden. Agree with Vegas Vic, it's gotta be a major difference in analysis. They're either going to look like idiots or genuises. I'm guessing the former.

For whatever it's worth, they're saying Trump's early lead in Michigan isn't a mirage and are saying it's a tossup.

ISiddiqui · 11-03-2020, 08:22 PM

Also Hickenlooper beats Gardener in Colorado, so that's 1 flipped Senate seat so far.

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Ksyrup · 11-03-2020, 08:23 PM

This was set up for maximum pain on Biden supporters, too. All the EV tallied first, and then slowly watch the ED votes which apparently broke hard for GOP slowly choke the will out of you as the lead dwindles.

sterlingice · 11-03-2020, 08:25 PM

It's like a mirror of 2016 where it felt like Clinton fell behind in spots she needed to and was scrounging for votes in the end that never came.

SI

GrantDawg · 11-03-2020, 08:26 PM

Check this thread. Cohen is saying the NYT thread in GA?NC is based on Florida, and it might not be reading the states differences well.

JPhillips · 11-03-2020, 08:27 PM

Looking at the urban areas in Ohio and the projected percentage of votes left, it looks pretty good for Biden, I think.

Brian Swartz · 11-03-2020, 08:28 PM

Interesting. AFAIK, demographics do tend to be pretty consistent. If that's the source of the issue I'd still lean NYT.

GrantDawg · 11-03-2020, 08:29 PM

Nate Silver: I love the Needle, etc. but analyzing anything based on election night returns is tricky just because we've never had this huge Election Day vs. early split along partisan lines before. Increases uncertainty, and means you should revert a bit back to 50/50. — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2020

thesloppy · 11-03-2020, 08:29 PM

Y'all talking about those FoxNews numbers led me over there, and ironically their probability page is actually soothing my fears.

Probability Dials | Elections 2020 | Fox News

JPhillips · 11-03-2020, 08:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

NC: Fox now at 92% Biden, NYT at 88% Trump.

Now 91% Trump

GrantDawg · 11-03-2020, 08:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Interesting. AFAIK, demographics do tend to be pretty consistent. If that's the source of the issue I'd still lean NYT.

Not demo, I think it is more how the diffrent states counts what votes.

Ksyrup · 11-03-2020, 08:31 PM

If this isn't the 2020 election in a screenshot, I don't know what is.

#Mississippi pic.twitter.com/XhfBPzRTaS
— Karen Howell (@karenehowell) November 4, 2020

11-03-2020, 08:01 PM	#5853
JPhillips Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Newburgh, NY	I think TX is done. Lots of rural areas still out. __________________ To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers

11-03-2020, 08:01 PM	#5854
Ben E Lou Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Greensboro, NC	NC NYT number seems weird. 74% of vote in and Biden up 51-47, but still showing 79% Trump? __________________ The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'!

11-03-2020, 08:02 PM	#5857
sterlingice Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Back in Houston!	WTH is going on with the Virginia reporting? SI __________________ Houston Hippopotami, III.3: 20th Anniversary Thread - All former HT players are encouraged to check it out! Janos: "Only America could produce an imbecile of your caliber!" Freakazoid: "That's because we make lots of things better than other people!"

11-03-2020, 08:03 PM	#5860
ISiddiqui Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Decatur, GA	The NYT needle is really confusing me as well. I also just saw that metro Atlanta is much more Biden than Clinton and a lot of Fulton County absentee won't be counted for hours due to the water main break in State Farm. Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk __________________ "A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams

11-03-2020, 08:06 PM	#5868
cuervo72 Head Coach Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Maryland	I'd like for it to be wrong, but I trust the NYT with numbers a bit more than Fox News. __________________ null

11-03-2020, 08:00 PM	#5852
Vegas Vic Checkraising Tourists Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Cocoa Beach, FL	Fox News analytics now shows Biden with an 89% chance of winning North Carolina.

11-03-2020, 08:01 PM	#5856
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Vote totals seem to be tracking with at least a 65% turnout, quite possibly higher with the late-counted ones. That part is good news.

11-03-2020, 08:03 PM	#5858
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Biden's NC lead is steadily going down, so perhaps they expect it to continue to do that based on where the outstanding vote is. Very weird to have NYT leaning that far Trump though and Fox leaning Biden. .

11-03-2020, 08:05 PM	#5864
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	One of the two is going to feel really stupid when we figure out what it is that NC did.

11-03-2020, 08:05 PM	#5865
bhlloy Coordinator Join Date: Nov 2003	CNN is really bullish on NC for Biden as well from what I'm overhearing from the other room, so somebody is wrong.

11-03-2020, 08:05 PM	#5867
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	Looks like Graham is pulling away from Harrison

11-03-2020, 08:06 PM	#5869
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	This is definitely the most FOFC posters I've seen in one place since, you know, last election. 94 viewers. Last edited by molson : 11-03-2020 at 08:07 PM.

11-03-2020, 08:07 PM	#5870
bhlloy Coordinator Join Date: Nov 2003	Seeing those exits polls from AZ feels really important right about now

11-03-2020, 08:07 PM	#5871
Ghost Econ College Prospect Join Date: Oct 2020	It's over. At least last time I was in Thailand and didn't have to go back to real life for a week.

11-03-2020, 08:07 PM	#5872
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	Wife got offered a role for her company in England. We could live by her sister and our nieces, rent our house, then she would take over as president of N America for a Buffet company when we come back in 2-3 years. Looks pretty damn good right about now.

11-03-2020, 08:08 PM	#5874
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	2020 man, 2020. I was just to check in for about half an hour tonight, confirm my expectations, and spend the rest of the evening doing other things. About that ...

11-03-2020, 08:08 PM	#5875
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	Predicit crashed. "Closed for Maintenance"

11-03-2020, 08:08 PM	#5876
Ben E Lou Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Greensboro, NC	So either Fox News or NYT is just plain broken on NC. Fox is up to 91 Biden. NYT is 85% Trump. Or maybe both are broken??? __________________ The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'!

11-03-2020, 08:11 PM	#5878
sabotai General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: The Satellite of Love	At ~70% reporting, Biden's lead was at ~200k. With 77% reporting, his lead is down to ~140k. NYT is pretty sure Trump makes up that ground, and Fox News is pretty sure he doesn't., I guess

11-03-2020, 08:12 PM	#5880
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	Just saw the reporting from HAmilton county in Ohio and I am cautiously optimistic

11-03-2020, 08:13 PM	#5882
Ben E Lou Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Greensboro, NC	78%....50.8-48.1 __________________ The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'!

11-03-2020, 08:15 PM	#5885
tarcone Coordinator Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Pacific	NC going Trump. The rural areas win the election again. __________________ Excuses are for wusses- Spencer Lee Punting is Winning- Tory Taylor The word is Fight! Fight! Fight! For Iowa FOFC 30 Dollar Challenge Champion-OOTP '15

11-03-2020, 08:20 PM	#5886
Ben E Lou Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Greensboro, NC	NC: Fox now at 92% Biden, NYT at 88% Trump. __________________ The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'!

11-03-2020, 08:21 PM	#5887
PilotMan Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Seven miles up	I am counting on all of you, because I honestly cannot watch. __________________ He's just like if Snow White was competitive, horny, and capable of beating the shit out of anyone that called her Pops. Like Steam? Join the FOFC Steam group here: http://steamcommunity.com/groups/FOFConSteam

11-03-2020, 08:21 PM	#5888
GrantDawg World Champion Mis-speller Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Covington, Ga.	Interesting:`BREAKING: THE Fox News Decision Desk can now project that Democrats will retain control of the House of Representatives and expand their majority by at least five seats. — Lauren Blanchard (@LaurenBlanch12) November 4, 2020`

11-03-2020, 08:21 PM	#5889
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Fox also has Georgia going Biden. Agree with Vegas Vic, it's gotta be a major difference in analysis. They're either going to look like idiots or genuises. I'm guessing the former. For whatever it's worth, they're saying Trump's early lead in Michigan isn't a mirage and are saying it's a tossup.

11-03-2020, 08:22 PM	#5890
ISiddiqui Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Decatur, GA	Also Hickenlooper beats Gardener in Colorado, so that's 1 flipped Senate seat so far. Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk __________________ "A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams

11-03-2020, 08:23 PM	#5891
Ksyrup This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off. Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: In Absentia	This was set up for maximum pain on Biden supporters, too. All the EV tallied first, and then slowly watch the ED votes which apparently broke hard for GOP slowly choke the will out of you as the lead dwindles. __________________ M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete."

11-03-2020, 08:25 PM	#5892
sterlingice Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Back in Houston!	It's like a mirror of 2016 where it felt like Clinton fell behind in spots she needed to and was scrounging for votes in the end that never came. SI __________________ Houston Hippopotami, III.3: 20th Anniversary Thread - All former HT players are encouraged to check it out! Janos: "Only America could produce an imbecile of your caliber!" Freakazoid: "That's because we make lots of things better than other people!"

11-03-2020, 08:26 PM	#5893
GrantDawg World Champion Mis-speller Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Covington, Ga.	Check this thread. Cohen is saying the NYT thread in GA?NC is based on Florida, and it might not be reading the states differences well.

11-03-2020, 08:27 PM	#5894
JPhillips Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Newburgh, NY	Looking at the urban areas in Ohio and the projected percentage of votes left, it looks pretty good for Biden, I think. __________________ To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers

11-03-2020, 08:28 PM	#5895
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Interesting. AFAIK, demographics do tend to be pretty consistent. If that's the source of the issue I'd still lean NYT.

11-03-2020, 08:29 PM	#5896
GrantDawg World Champion Mis-speller Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Covington, Ga.	Nate Silver: `I love the Needle, etc. but analyzing anything based on election night returns is tricky just because we've never had this huge Election Day vs. early split along partisan lines before. Increases uncertainty, and means you should revert a bit back to 50/50. — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2020`

11-03-2020, 08:29 PM	#5897
thesloppy Pro Starter Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: PDX	Y'all talking about those FoxNews numbers led me over there, and ironically their probability page is actually soothing my fears. Probability Dials \| Elections 2020 \| Fox News __________________ Last edited by thesloppy : Today at 05:35 PM.

11-03-2020, 08:31 PM	#5900
Ksyrup This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off. Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: In Absentia	If this isn't the 2020 election in a screenshot, I don't know what is. #Mississippi pic.twitter.com/XhfBPzRTaS — Karen Howell (@karenehowell) November 4, 2020 __________________ M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete."