POTUS 2024 - Harris vs Trump - General Election Discussion

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Warnock was up more. He cleaned up in the burbs.

Warnock was running against Walker. I can guaran-damn-tee you she would beat Walker by at least the same margins. Apples and oranges.

[JPhillips]

The first Maricopa county drop has Harris only up a couple of points. AZ seems unlikely.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Warnock was running against Walker. I can guaran-damn-tee you she would beat Walker by at least the same margins. Apples and oranges.

Warnock ran as a Democrat too.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

The first Maricopa county drop has Harris only up a couple of points. AZ seems unlikely.

Honestly never was in play this time, though Lake will get drubbed again which makes me happy.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Warnock ran as a Democrat too.

And Walker ran against the Werewolves and Vampires.

[Ksyrup]

I bet Manifold is exhausted.

I'll be here all night.

[Ghost Econ]

So I still don't have hope for this election, but the 2020 thread is pretty much a mirror image of this thread at the same point in time

2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread - Page 120 - Front Office Football Central

edit: we're also literally only 1 page off, crazy

[Brian Swartz]

There's still hope. Virginia is taking it's usual turn, Harris has taken the lead and Fairfax should net another 100kish for her.

[GrantDawg]

Gwinnett finally gets a dump of votes in, and cuts the lead by 150k. It starting to look like she is going to be a .5 short.

[Edward64]

Yeah, I think GA is going Trump.

[Solecismic]

Georgia, probably, though in the end maybe 1%.

Pennsylvania? It looks good for Harris so far. I do not understand the betting odds at all.

[RainMaker]

Election day vote in a Dearborn precinct

332 Trump
293 Stein
81 Harris

— umichvoter ��️‍�� (@umichvoter) November 6, 2024

[JPhillips]

Looks like 2020, but with Trump getting all the narrow victories.

Looks like I need to make sure my daughter's passport is renewed so she can prove citizenship.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Georgia, probably, though in the end maybe 1%.

Pennsylvania? It looks good for Harris so far. I do not understand the betting odds at all.

Bizarre at the moment. Pennsylvania at Trump 90%, Wisconsin at Trump 88.5% and Michigan at Trump 82.2%.

[Ksyrup]

Appropos of nothing...

Search interest for ‘did Joe Biden drop out’ is spiking on Election Day even though he withdrew months ago | Fortune

[Brian Swartz]

I was confident in Pennsylvania earlier. I'm not anymore. It looks close.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I was confident in Pennsylvania earlier. I'm not anymore. It looks close.

Right now, it looks like Trump has a reasonable chance to sweep all seven swing states.

[wustin]

Logged in to say the democrats deserved this for backing a centrist interventionist when the 2022 general said otherwise with the overwhelming new age dem voting. The young voters are not moderates and refuse to be near the middle. It's either far right or far left.

Historically candidates who ran on an anti-war platform does well. All Harris had to do was denounce Israel, she loses nothing doing so and could only gain even if it were lip service.

[Brian Swartz]

So, this is like, bad ...

[kingfc22]

Welp. Logging off for the night.

Was pessimistic going into this and it’s looking like Trump, RFK Jr and Elon will be running our country.

God help us

[Solecismic]

Right now, it looks like Pennsylvania is headed into recount country and Casey has a small advantage in the Senate. Those odds look so tempting.

[RainMaker]

Another political masterclass.

Looks like Kamala Harris will not win the south end of Dearborn, an area 90+% Muslim that Biden won with 88% of the vote 4 years ago.

— Niraj Warikoo (@nwarikoo) November 6, 2024

[Ksyrup]

The irony that the core Trumper hates minorities so much and those same minorities are going to deliver them a second Trump.term.

[Brian Swartz]

Georgia SOS says Trump has an insurmountable lead.

[RainMaker]

Killing people's families does not win votes. Something for the Democrats to note for the next election.

[RainMaker]

Forgot about them sending Torres to Michigan

they sent Liz Cheney on a 3 state tour. they sent Kathy Hochul to PA! THEY SENT RITCHIE TORRES TO MICHIGAN TO START FLOSSING IN FRONT OF PEOPLE WHO HAD LOST HALF THEIR FAMILIES!

— Lead Actor from Pixar’s Sodas (@ByYourLogic) November 6, 2024

[wustin]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Killing people's families does not win votes. Something for the Democrats to note for the next election.

That shouldn't be the main talking point but one of them. A lot further left leaning economic policies would do extremely well. Young educated voters from the Obama campaign are in their early to mid 30s now and they're not stupid and don't want to vote like their parents. This idea of electing a politician who can work with the other party is so antiquated even the GOP scraped that a long time ago.

[stevew]

She should concede before noon tomorrow.

[Solecismic]

Wisconsin sure isn't looking good, though there's still plenty left of Milwaukee.

[thesloppy]

My wishful thinking about polling overadjusting for Trump support was very, very wrong.

[Brian Swartz]

I don't think it's over yet. The way it looks to me:

- Trump appears to be on the way to winning Georgia, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Assume he wins Alaska also. That would put him at 259.

- Harris has to win Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona - all look close so not at all out of the question.

Definitely not good, but that door is still open a tad.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

Right now, it looks like Trump has a reasonable chance to sweep all seven swing states.

This is what I'm seeing, although PA might be worth a shot in the betting markets. But even the popular vote market is down to 11c for her, it's over. At least NC pushed back against some crazy MAGA overreach, that's a small consolation.

[RainMaker]

In fairness, I don't think anyone knew what to make of the polls.

What people did know is Cheney was a disaster. Gaza was a disaster. And running to the right of everything the Democras have stood for for decades was maybe a bad decision. They ran as a Republican to lure Republican voters and the Republicans just voted for the actual Republican.

One of the dumbest campaigns concocted supported by some of the most out of touch people in this country. Now what's left is who they'll blame for this. Russia? Muslims? Transgender people? Progressives?

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I don't think it's over yet. The way it looks to me:

- Trump appears to be on the way to winning Georgia, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Assume he wins Alaska also. That would put him at 259.

- Harris has to win Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona - all look close so not at all out of the question.

Definitely not good, but that door is still open a tad.

She is not winning Arizona. And while I think there is a shot in Pennsylvania, she looks cooked in Michigan. It's a young state with a lot of Muslims. Ethnic cleansing their families turned out to not be a winning strategy there.


This should lead to some reflection in the party but I doubt it. They'll have their scapegoats and the same losers will continue down this path.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Killing people's families does not win votes. Something for the Democrats to note for the next election.

Pfft. If Trump wins, the next elections won't really matter for Democrats. Sure, Democrats will be elected to the House & Senate from states like CA, MA, IL, NY, etc..., but the Senate doesn't look obtainable any time soon, and with the GOP now perfecting the way to suppress voting effectively, POTUS is probably off the table.

If Trump wins, Democrats need a major re-think, and it goes far beyond what happened with Israel & Gaza.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

It's a young state with a lot of Muslims.

For the time being anyway.

[Danny]

Ultimately rainmaker was right about the campaign mistakes, though this was largely in the last month as I dont think the initial strategy was so bad. Democrats will need someone more left and charismatic ala Obama to win again.

[Brian Swartz]

I don't see why Arizona is decisive yet. Looks very similar to the close '20 results.

In the bigger picture, it looks most likely to be a perfect storm. ~ 53 Republican Senators, probable small margin for them in the House. A Congress *unified behind Donald Trump.

* Kind of, small margins can be problematic as we've seen.

Super Great.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

What people did know is Cheney was a disaster. Gaza was a disaster. And running to the right of everything the Democras have stood for for decades was maybe a bad decision. They ran as a Republican to lure Republican voters and the Republicans just voted for the actual Republican.

Republicans vote reliably for Republicans because first and foremost they deliver. You can overlook a lot of things when you vote for a party to lower taxes, tighten immigration, and appoint Supreme Court justices and they do it.

Democrats continue to try and triangulate positions between all of their stakeholder groups, and besides watering down their messages, they often can't make hay about their wins (and there were wins in the Biden Administration) because they're afraid that a win to one of their stakeholder groups will be offensive to another of their stakeholder groups.

Maybe they're right to do so, because the country is fundamentally right-of-center and the only way to win as a "center-left" (I use that term loosely from a global perspective) is coalition-building.

But if that's the case, I'm done with this Clintonesque "Third Way" bullshit. I held out hope because I really, really, really don't want to live under another Trump Administration, and I think it's really, really bad for the world and the future. But if so many people who will be so negatively impacted by another Trump Administration have no problem voting for him or staying home then why should I, who will be lesser impacted, continue to care?

At this point I'd rather see Democrats go the leftist-populist-AOC/Bernie route and see if you can rebuild a national party that way that believes in something and doesn't have to run away from everything. I, personally, don't think you can because fundamentally I think we have an electorate that is self-interested and isolated, and Republican policies speak so clearly to that.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Pfft. If Trump wins, the next elections won't really matter for Democrats. Sure, Democrats will be elected to the House & Senate from states like CA, MA, IL, NY, etc..., but the Senate doesn't look obtainable any time soon, and with the GOP now perfecting the way to suppress voting effectively, POTUS is probably off the table.

If Trump wins, Democrats need a major re-think, and it goes far beyond what happened with Israel & Gaza.

They needed a major re-think in 2021. Why Garland didn't bother to charge Trump with obvious crmes. Why they didn't work to expand the court. Make Puerto Rico and DC states. Pass minimum wage increase which Kamala personally blocked . Kick Clinton out of the party so they could go after Trump for his connections to Epstein. They didn't take the thread seriously and neither did voters.

A lot of this stuff began in the 90's when Bill switched the party from a working class one to a corporate one because he thought they needed the money to compete. That left all the working class rural voters to find someone else to support and you're seeing the result today. And their addiction to corporate money and future lobbying gigs prevents that from ever changing.

Pressure from voters would be best but blue MAGA falls in line instead of rocking the boat. They're the ones who said Biden was perfectly fine and this was all ageism which led to Kamala getting the spot (the worst option they could have had). They celebrated what the administration was doing in Gaza and supported a violent fascist. And they refused to admit that running on a campaign that shit on its base and propped up the Cheney family was incredibly dumb.

This one's on Blue MAGA and until they start thinking for themselves and leave the cult of personality behind, nothing will change.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

She is not winning Arizona. And while I think there is a shot in Pennsylvania, she looks cooked in Michigan. It's a young state with a lot of Muslims. Ethnic cleansing their families turned out to not be a winning strategy there.

IIRC, sometime in the past few weeks Trump said something along the lines of "Bibi should finish the job". So looks like electing Trump will be a pretty pyrric victory for those folks. Then they'll get deported on top of it.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

And while I think there is a shot in Pennsylvania, she looks cooked in Michigan. It's a young state with a lot of Muslims. Ethnic cleansing their families turned out to not be a winning strategy there.

Let's see how happy they are when Trump rekindles his lovefest with Bibi Netanyahu. Same thing goes for the unions who refused to endorse Harris. Can't wait to see how joyful they are when Trump appoints fellow union-buster Elon Musk to eliminate collective bargaining and make it legal to fire workers who threaten to strike.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Danny

Ultimately rainmaker was right about the campaign mistakes, though this was largely in the last month as I dont think the initial strategy was so bad. Democrats will need someone more left and charismatic ala Obama to win again.

They had everyting going for them. Biden was cooked and the switch to Harris brought life into the party. Just the idea that she would deviate from Biden's unpopular policies and put up some of her own was enough to stir up enthusiasm. She proceded to say she wouldn't change anything Biden did (except add a Republican to the cabinet ). Then decided to make a hard shift to the right and embrace people like Liz Cheney who everyone hates.

They even added Tim Walz which people were excited about as he's incredibly likable. This guy who came up with a perfect attack on Republicans by calling their grievances weird. A guy who went to small state schools and worked as a high school football coach. The perfect guy to throw on Bill Simmons podcast and other shows to talk football and middle American life. Instead, they told him to drop the weird thing and hid him for the final months.

Biden, Harris, blue MAGA, and the complete fucking nitwits who ran her campaign are what caused this. So many people warned you all about this and were called trolls. I guess congrats on losing to one of the worst candidates in history twice now. Truly a remarkable accomplishment.

[Front Office Midget]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

This one's on Blue MAGA and until they start thinking for themselves and leave the cult of personality behind, nothing will change.

Lol, definitely on "Blue MAGA", and not the fact that people who know better, when faced with 2 options, let the country choose the option that is worse on literally every single issue they claim to care about, just to prove how good and pure of a progressive they are.

What are the odds that the Democratic Party runs an anti-Israel candidate in 2028? .1% seems a bit generous.

What are the odds that a Trump presidency is completely anti-science, Anti-Palestine, anti-women? 99.9%?

Yeah, blame "blue MAGA" for the insanity; that makes sense.

In 50 years, if there is still a planet, will we still be allowing fascists to run society to prove a point to the other party that they should be further left? While the fascists go on and on about how we need to deport everyone trying to flee the scorched equator left behind by climate change from those fascist party's policies?

How depressing.

[Front Office Midget]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

Let's see how happy they are when Trump rekindles his lovefest with Bibi Netanyahu. Same thing goes for the unions who refused to endorse Harris. Can't wait to see how joyful they are when Trump appoints fellow union-buster Elon Musk to eliminate collective bargaining and make it legal to fire workers who threaten to strike.

Dola:
Unironically, a lot of people enjoy pretending to be the opposition to the big bad fascist rather than actually deal with moderately inept government.

Democratic Party included in preferring that, I think. Better for fundraising.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

IIRC, sometime in the past few weeks Trump said something along the lines of "Bibi should finish the job". So looks like electing Trump will be a pretty pyrric victory for those folks. Then they'll get deported on top of it.

Kamala and Trump spent a chunk of the debate arguing over who loved Bibi and Israel more. They have identical stances on Israel, which is to give them everything they want and let them do whatever they want.


I actually think there is a better chance of Trump ending it because he gets annoyed with stuff that draws attention away from himself and there is a large contingent of his party that is anti-war now. Plus people like you can now pretend you're against the genocide and there will actually be some legitimate resistance to it.

[BishopMVP]

I think Michigan is still in play, if Wayne County maintains %'s that's 193k for her, only behind 163k.

[Brian Swartz]

I agree, although my math says if the current rate continues she only gets another 130k from Wayne.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Front Office Midget

Lol, definitely on "Blue MAGA", and not the fact that people who know better, when faced with 2 options, let the country choose the option that is worse on literally every single issue they claim to care about, just to prove how good and pure of a progressive they are.

What are the odds that the Democratic Party runs an anti-Israel candidate in 2028? .1% seems a bit generous.

What are the odds that a Trump presidency is completely anti-science, Anti-Palestine, anti-women? 99.9%?

Yeah, blame "blue MAGA" for the insanity; that makes sense.

In 50 years, if there is still a planet, will we still be allowing fascists to run society to prove a point to the other party that they should be further left? While the fascists go on and on about how we need to deport everyone trying to flee the scorched equator left behind by climate change from those fascist party's policies?

How depressing.

Democrats overwhelmingly supported a fascist leader in Israel. They are actively bragging about how much oil they're drilling. Harris made a huge stink about how much she loves fracking. They banned cheap EV cars from China which would have dramatically helped adoption in this country and lowered emissions. And the Democrats literally proposed Trump's immigration plan and were talking about building the wall he never finished.

Democrats don't stand for any of the things you think of and the public saw right through it. And that doesn't even touch on the fact that Kamala was thrust upon Democrats because blue MAGA sat around for years pretending Biden's mental health was fine when everyone with two brain cells knew it wasn't. Him stepping down early and having a true open primary would have produced a much better candidate.

You can't cry about fascism and democracy in peril and then do a bunch of stuff that show you don't actually give a shit about either. Just take the L, you all were wrong.

[Brian Swartz]

I still say the blame goes to the voters. You know, the people who are actually in charge (with the exception of the Kamala bit that they never actually voted on). But they're still the ones choosing the historically terrible candidate again. A lot of them see who he is ... and don't care.