NBA Draft Lottery/Offseason Thread 2012

[Grover]

Originally Posted by M GO BLUE!!!

So let me get this straight. The Celtics signed Crosby, Stills, Nash and Young?

They also live in a very, very, very fine house with two cats in the yard.

[M GO BLUE!!!]

Originally Posted by Grover

They also live in a very, very, very fine house with two cats in the yard.

At least the Lakers were able to counter that move by getting Steve Perry.

[LloydLungs]

Suns ink Ivan Drago to replace Steve Holt at PG.

[Grover]

Originally Posted by LloydLungs

Suns ink Ivan Drago to replace Steve Holt at PG.

Spoiler

[stevew]

I wonder what the market for Aaron Brooks will be. He was a decent QB for half a second, and now he's a solid PG at times. Spent all last season in China.

[stevew]

I'm also not sure if anyone even noticed the Adrian Bradley usage either.

[Groundhog]

I think for under the mid-level he'd make a good Barbosa-esque punt returner.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by stevew

I wonder what the market for Aaron Brooks will be. He was a decent QB for half a second, and now he's a solid PG at times. Spent all last season in China.

I picked Aaron Brooks in the 8th round for 3-4 years straight and made the playoffs all of those years. He was alright for a fantasy QB.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

I think for under the mid-level he'd make a good Barbosa-esque punt returner.

Does his buddy count against the roster limit?

Spoiler

[stevew]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

I picked Aaron Brooks in the 8th round for 3-4 years straight and made the playoffs all of those years. He was alright for a fantasy QB.

I thought he was pretty good in Drive, even though he was playing against type.

[Subby]

Love Steve Nash, but is his defense good enough? Seems like the kind of player that is fun during the regular season, but might be too old and slow to be what the Lakers need in the post season.

[stevew]

Eh, I think they would probably just throw a defensive guard on the floor vs most teams if he was being exposed. He probably can't guard Tony Parker or Westbrook, but they can certain juggle enough help to have him check Danny Green or even James Harden.

[whomario]

His individual defense was allways below average and certainly isn´t getting any better at age 38. He is a smart and willing team defender though and doesn´t gamble or takes time off on that end.

Of course you´ll have to hide him but if you have a good system you can do that. I´ll take a bad individual defender who rotates well and plays angles well over a guy that can check his man better but can´t do those things (especially with the new rules, under which there are maybe half a dozen guys that you can truly say are able to shut down a perimeter player relatively regularly)

he´d still be an upgrade over any PG they had recently even if he decided to hop around on one leg on defense (and a guy like Sessions got destroyed by Lawson and Westbrook at times)

At the end of the day, there wasn´t anyone available to be a lockdown defender anyway, at least not anyone you could get without giving up any of your core. I mean, he is (for now...) a free upgrade more or less.

[sterlingice]

Goran Dragic is gone to the Suns
Kyle Lowry appears as if he will be gone to the Raptors

Houston went from having two excellent PG options to 0

However, they have made roughly the same offer to Jeremy Lin as the Suns did to Goran Dragic. Huh?

They have also cut ties with Courtney Lee.

This offseason is not going as planned...

SI

[stevew]

"Free Upgrade" is definitely the truth, although with the new luxury taxes they will certainly be feeling not so free. . Isn't the tax like 250% or something crazy like that after 80M?

[whomario]

Yeah, the Rockets seem to have screwed up in this PG carousel ...

Clippers resign Billups and likely sign Jamal Crawford

[stevew]

I actually believe in Joel McHale as the Rockets coach, and I think they will be fine. Lowry had to go as there was too much tension. It would be hilarious if they settled on Aaron Brooks....essentially doing over the Brooks/Dragic deal.

[Young Drachma]

The NBA ought to just create some sort of uncapped veteran exception for those guys who want to latch onto a team at the end of their career. Or for young guys who are scrappy 3rd round types who could help a team like a 15-day guy but you don't wanna/need to pay him big bucks. Would probably help the market and prevent the overpaying of this middle of the road, lower-tier dudes who get big money to fill roles.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by stevew

"Free Upgrade" is definitely the truth, although with the new luxury taxes they will certainly be feeling not so free. . Isn't the tax like 250% or something crazy like that after 80M?

True, but that´s sth to worry about next offseason i guess

In any case i don´t care about the Lakers as a franchise, so i can just sit back and enjoy watching the game and not care about the long term

Didn´t the Lakers also sign a TV deal over like 3 billion ?

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

The NBA ought to just create some sort of uncapped veteran exception for those guys who want to latch onto a team at the end of their career.

Why ? I mean, the exceptions are there and it´s a soft cap, what´s it to the players if the owner has to pay the luxuary tax ? Basically every one of those guys can (if he´s a free agent) sign for 5 or 3 mio with any contender that wants him, if he wants more than that then that´s his problem.

[stevew]

There is an exception so that vets on the minimum salary only get counted as something like 850K but they make over a million. Juwon Howard, for example, earned about 1.4 million, counted about 850k vs the cap and the league actually paid the Heat 550K of his salary.

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q16

[stevew]

Was just looking at those new tax rates. Some of the shit is like 3.50$ on the dollar if you're a tax repeater. My math might be incorrect, but if the lakers go from an assumed payroll of roughly 80M in 13-14, to adding Nash(Making it 90M)he literally costs something like $35m(tax plus salary)

[whomario]

Teletovic was somehow convinced to now sign the Taxpayer MLE (3 mio), meaning that a Howard trade is still possible afterall.

[sterlingice]

Can someone explain to me what Houston is doing today? I can't think that a lottery but not top 3 or 5 protected pick is all Kyle Lowry gets you

SI

[stevew]

Do you know anything about that Russian guard several teams are targeting(including the Cavs)?

That Teletovic looked good on highlights, but he also appeared to be schooling guys with the agility of YMCA players. Does seem to have some swagger to him.
Might just be me, but I'm always suspicious of European guys that were never drafted. I feel like that scouting was good enough in 2004 or 2005 when he was draft eligible that he should have been selected in the second round.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by stevew

Was just looking at those new tax rates. Some of the shit is like 3.50$ on the dollar if you're a tax repeater. My math might be incorrect, but if the lakers go from an assumed payroll of roughly 80M in 13-14, to adding Nash(Making it 90M)he literally costs something like $35m(tax plus salary)

Yeah, they did this to deter those big teams from going way over. This was a small market equalizer. Or was intended to be.

[stevew]

Alexey Shved is the guy I'm thinking of.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Can someone explain to me what Houston is doing today? I can't think that a lottery but not top 3 or 5 protected pick is all Kyle Lowry gets you

SI

Hey, you got Gary Forbes too. I swear that guy sounds made up.

[Chief Rum]

What is the benefit of the taxpayer exception? If I understand it right, if you use that exception, you get a bit of a "tax break" on luxury tax dollars, right? So instead of being the ridiculous 350% tax, it's "only" 200% or something like that?

[stevew]

Once you use the non-taxpayer exception you can't make any more moves that take you over 74million. It essentially serves as a hard cap at that point. You might be able to sign rookies for minimums possibly, but no veterans.

[Young Drachma]

Wonder what basketball would look like if it were like baseball and there was no cap again. I mean, would guys opt to be the 7th dude on a contender over starting? Would teams pay guys that kind of money to sit on the bench?

I feel like it'd make stuff more not less competitive. But maybe not.

[whomario]

I apologize in advance if i get too talkative and/or seem defensive on the subject

Originally Posted by stevew

Do you know anything about that Russian guard several teams are targeting(including the Cavs)?

Shved is a prototypical 6th man type of player with all the pros and cons: good scorer and shooter, pretty good passer but not really a great defender.
Worst case i think he´d be as good as Greivis Vazquez (slightly worse passer, better shooter) and thus a solid 15-20 minute guy off the bench.

But he has very good instincts with the ball, doesn´t make many mistakes and should do really well with more space and more Pick and Roles compared to Europe. Hope the TWolves sign him, he´d fit very well with what they do and could be a PnR player when Rubio sits.

Hasn´t played a ton of real basketball in his career as he was burried behind veterans until like 2 seasons ago.

Originally Posted by stevew

Might just be me, but I'm always suspicious of European guys that were never drafted. I feel like that scouting was good enough in 2004 or 2005 when he was draft eligible that he should have been selected in the second round.

Most of those 2nd round picks from Europe are based on perceived potential (if you look at the players, they are mostly either 7 footers or really young or really stand out athletically), 5 years later most of those guys will be playing for lunch money somewhere while dozens of guys that weren´t on the NBA radar will start for Euroleague teams. There are a lot of guys in Europe that were´t on the NBA radar as 22 year olds that now would improve a ton of NBA teams as solid bench guys or even starters, it´s just that most of those guys earn good money and don´t care for the NBA very much (heck, there are even draft busts that now would be great rotation players after actually getting to play in Europe for a couple years)

Afterall, when evaluating college players you don´t really care what they did in high school either.

The thing is that a lot of guys don´t really get to showcase their ability in that 20-22 age range with the european clubs playing a ton of veterans. It´s not at all unusual for players in europe to have their breakout years when they are like 25 or so. In Teletovic case he played like 15 MPG in 2007 (his draft year) and struggled adjusting in his first season in the spanish leage and didn´t have the obvious potential in form of being a 7 footer or insanely athletic.

I don´t have a full list handy, but how many busts have there been recently that scare you were undrafted (or 2nd rounders) Euros that then signed in their mid 20s ? (or americans that got some seasoning in Europe before coming to the league)

There´s propably a lot higher percentage of Euros (and college players as well) going bust that enter the league directly after the draft, isn´t there ?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by stevew

Once you use the non-taxpayer exception you can't make any more moves that take you over 74million. It essentially serves as a hard cap at that point. You might be able to sign rookies for minimums possibly, but no veterans.

Okay, I got that, but I was asking about the taxpayer exception.

(Thanks for the explanation, though).

[stevew]

The taxpayer exception is capped at 3m, for teams that are going to exceed 74m. in the past you would still get a full MLE if you were over the tax line...now you get a 3m MLE if you're going to be over the tax by 4m. I don't think there is a tax break on it, if that was the original question.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Okay, I got that, but I was asking about the taxpayer exception.

(Thanks for the explanation, though).

Rather than the four-year contract starting at $5MM (with 4.5% raises) available to non-taxpayers, teams over the tax line can offer a "mini" MLE of up to three years, starting at $3MM (4.5% raises).

[whomario]

the tournament determining the last 2 spots for the olympics is underway in Venezuela right now btw : http://london2012.fiba.com/pages/eng.../schedule.html

allready out after the group stage (4 groups of 3 single round robin, first 2 to quarters) are Jordan, Venezuela (despite 2 strong games by Vazquez), Korea and New Zealand.

QF / SF (2 semi final winners go to london)

Greece - Nigeria / Russia - Angola

Lithuania - Puerto Rico / Macedonia - Dominican Republic

[whomario]

There were reports that Kidd agreed to a 3/9 deal with the Mavs, now it seems he´ll go to the Knicks instead under the same conditions.

The way this offseason goes a rebuild is lurking just around the corner for the Mavs ... I don´t think the current roster is going to be enough for more than just barely sneaking into the playoffs after loosing Terry and Kidd.
The drafted players i don´t see anyone stepping into a big role...

[Arles]

I remember all last season how guys like Hollinger and Bill Simmons lauded Mark Cuban for freeing up cap space for this offseason. He didn't resign Chandler and the Mavs fell back a step in the west.

Then, in FA, Cuban tried to land D-Will (Brooklyn), Dragic (Suns) and Nash (Lakers). They failed on all 3 and then tried to just keep Kidd (Knicks). Now, after all this planning and collecting of cap space - the Mavs are hoping they can convince Ramon Sessions to take some of their cap space. Sometimes cap space doesn't end up being all you would have hoped it would be.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by whomario

I apologize in advance if i get too talkative and/or seem defensive on the subject



Shved is a prototypical 6th man type of player with all the pros and cons: good scorer and shooter, pretty good passer but not really a great defender.
Worst case i think he´d be as good as Greivis Vazquez (slightly worse passer, better shooter) and thus a solid 15-20 minute guy off the bench.

But he has very good instincts with the ball, doesn´t make many mistakes and should do really well with more space and more Pick and Roles compared to Europe. Hope the TWolves sign him, he´d fit very well with what they do and could be a PnR player when Rubio sits.

Hasn´t played a ton of real basketball in his career as he was burried behind veterans until like 2 seasons ago.




Most of those 2nd round picks from Europe are based on perceived potential (if you look at the players, they are mostly either 7 footers or really young or really stand out athletically), 5 years later most of those guys will be playing for lunch money somewhere while dozens of guys that weren´t on the NBA radar will start for Euroleague teams. There are a lot of guys in Europe that were´t on the NBA radar as 22 year olds that now would improve a ton of NBA teams as solid bench guys or even starters, it´s just that most of those guys earn good money and don´t care for the NBA very much (heck, there are even draft busts that now would be great rotation players after actually getting to play in Europe for a couple years)

Afterall, when evaluating college players you don´t really care what they did in high school either.

The thing is that a lot of guys don´t really get to showcase their ability in that 20-22 age range with the european clubs playing a ton of veterans. It´s not at all unusual for players in europe to have their breakout years when they are like 25 or so. In Teletovic case he played like 15 MPG in 2007 (his draft year) and struggled adjusting in his first season in the spanish leage and didn´t have the obvious potential in form of being a 7 footer or insanely athletic.

I don´t have a full list handy, but how many busts have there been recently that scare you were undrafted (or 2nd rounders) Euros that then signed in their mid 20s ? (or americans that got some seasoning in Europe before coming to the league)

There´s propably a lot higher percentage of Euros (and college players as well) going bust that enter the league directly after the draft, isn´t there ?

I appreciate the insight. Basically the only euroleague guys I can remember coming back over here after having good careers over there were guys like Jasikevicius or even like Anthony Parker. IE guys that weren't anything special.

For example, Shved not being drafted is a huge red flag to me. I know he lacked the playing time and experience, but I still would think he would have received a pick in the 50s range. He can't get playing time on CSKA because Tragic Langdon is/was most likely starting ahead of him. I know the guys prefer veteran "men" over in europe. Maybe, and probably likely, Langdon would have been a solid NBA bench guy from 07-11. From my ugly and tainted American perspective, a guy that couldn't put Tragic on the bench isn't a guy to get excited about.

[stevew]

For Teletovic, i only really watched a couple euro highlight reels on youtube. he looked pretty good on tape, but I wonder how good any of the guys guarding him were. Like if Luke Harangody was the model for the guys who were defending him.

And what's with all the shitty music in all these Euro clips btw. I know american people use crappy rap songs, whereas the Euro dudes love that linkin park type of shit.

[whomario]

Anthony Parker ? He signed as a 31 year old for 3/12 and was a starter throughout, Raptors were a playoff team his first 2 years as well with him averaging 12.5 PPG on 48% FG and 44% from 3. Plus playing good defense.

I´m not saying he was a star, but for the type of money he signed ? Same with Shved. If he becomes a 20 mpg guy that produces well for those minutes, isn´t that pretty much what you would expect for the money he´s getting ?

Jasikevicius would have had to be placed on a team that fit him to have a chance at succeeding, he clearly did lack the nescessary athletic ability to play the PG spot for most teams. Plus he wasn´t good off the ball. I would never expect a guy like Teodosic to succeed either (he is comparable to Jasikevicius today)

Overall i don´t claim that there are dozens of NBA starters or players that would star in the NBA playing in Europe, but there´s certainly a ton of able role players there that would improve many teams.


as for Teletovic competition : It obviously aren´t NBA calibre athletes, but i´m pretty sure that quite a few starting PFs in the ACB (spanish league) could play some minutes in the NBA and team defense over here is pretty damn good. And in any case, it´s not like NBA top draft picks make their highlights against future NBA players. Sometimes you get a player facing a team where you here "that´s a real test, he´s going against NBA calibre players/athletes" and in retrospect (say after 3 years) how often are those oponents actually in the NBA ? Every draft pick mostly faces guys that will either not play professional basketball or play for smaller teams in Europe (and then get their ass handed to them by a guy like Teletovic )

I think in Teletovic case him having some trouble adjusting to quicker defenders will be upset by him not being as much of a priority for defenses. And the thing is that he´s not a spot up shooter with a set release, he is a legit jump shooter that has a quick and high release.
There sure are a ton of stretch 4s in Europe that would really struggle against NBA athletes, i just don´t see Teletovic having that problem


Long attempts at explaining some things coming :

It´s just a different game and system and i´ll be the first to admit that it´s hard to explain to nba-only people how it all works. I don´t think you can (not want to, can) understand how much a difference it makes to be a young player in Europe versus being a young player in the US coming out of college.
F.e. i bet that more US people knew about Shved than CSKA fans. There just isn´t any pressure to play a young player, espesially since contrary to the NBA there basically is no tanking or rebuilding as there´s no incentive for it. Every team has to try to be as good as they can, the top teams for the title, the mid tear for the playoffs and reaching international league play (besides the euroleague there are others that also bring in extra money) and the bottom teams to avoid relegation.
There aren´t any "let´s suck for 3 years to be better 4 years down the road" scenarios, that just isn´t done.
And especially don´t European teams care about NBA potential in a player.

I´m just saiyng that it´s no coincidence that the NBA teams look for theese actual and fully developed basketball players more and more, the stigma of "but he can´t jump so high or run so quick" is going away.
But then again theese players obviously want to make the same money as in Europe, while college players come at a much lower price via the draft. And obviously there´s also a bias to sign players with NBA experience (which is just natural), to sign what you know rather than take a chance.

[stevew]

In regards to Parker I'm most likely falsely equating "2 Time Euroleague MVP" with "the best player in Europe"

[whomario]

Originally Posted by stevew

In regards to Parker I'm most likely falsely equating "2 Time Euroleague MVP" with "the best player in Europe"

I would never claim that the best players in Europe would be stars in the NBA (afterall, most of those with that potential are going to the NBA early ), just that players that consistently produce in Europe can be valuable NBA players.
And starting on a playoff team is just that, at a bargain price no less.

And not ever player that produces in Europe is a fit for the NBA, just like not every great college player is a good fit for Europe (or every NBA player would be, for that matter)

Just like with College the stars get drafted (early) but that doesn´t mean there aren´t valuable players left. They just don´t have star potential.

[Groundhog]

Originally Posted by stevew

Hey, you got Gary Forbes too. I swear that guy sounds made up.

Back off man, he carried my College Hoops 2k7 UMass team to the Final Four!!

[whomario]

speaking of guys from Europe, Andrei Kirilenko is aparently not so sure about returning to the US, propably a reason why Teletovic was signed by the Nets in the first place (Kirilenko going there was considered a sure thing).
I guess from his point of view he has the option to play for titles and good money in his home country at CSKA and unless a good combination or team, role and money is offered he´ll stay.

further complicating things is that he´s trying to help Russia qualify for the Olympics right now. I guess he´ll stay a couple days after the tournament (in Venezuela) finishes on Sunday to have talks with teams before then going back to Europe. (there´s a couple more players there that might end up getting signed by NBA teams)

Maybe the Mavs try their luck, would be pretty neat having Dirk and him play together and he´s certainly still a plus-player defensively and could also help some with playmaking and back up Dirk and basically be the type of player they hoped to get with Odom. Not sure if you can afford 2 non-shooters at the 3 with Marion and him though.

[Groundhog]

Dallas might be a good spot for OJ Mayo.

[stevew]

Dallas should invest money into Greg Oden and rebuild him from the ground up.

[Young Drachma]

All of this wheeling and dealing is making me consider buying DDPB3. Currently dinking around with the demo and we'll see. Not exactly the cheapest game on the planet and not sure I'd play it enough to make it worth it. But we'll see. Anyway...

[M GO BLUE!!!]

Originally Posted by stevew

Dallas should invest money into Greg Oden and rebuild him from the ground up.

Only if they put Six Million into him. They can rebuild him. They have the technology.

[whomario]

Brandon Roy signs with the Timberwolves !

Boy do i hope this works out ... At least this will cement the Wolves as one of the top league pass teams again next season Hope Rubio recovers in time for the start of the season.
Now should the Blazers really not match (they still say they will, but there´s also talk that the Pacers wouldn´t match Hibbert and then things might look differently) then things could get really, really interesting.

I realize that theese are a lot of "ifs"

Rockets will sign Lin to an offer sheet but the Knicks are likely to match.

[DougW]

Originally Posted by whomario

Brandon Roy signs with the Timberwolves !

Weird. He's not even white.