Werewolf CXXVII -- The Godfather, VILLAGERS WIN

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Can you explain that, EF? My WW-fu might be broken or something but I don't see how you jumped to those two.

This is going to get my butt voted for but I would rather not say; at least not at this time.

[JAG]

Jeff was pretty calm at deadline even though the vote was close. Was it because he knew he had a Lathum double vote on sal?

This is just stream-of-thought stuff.

[J23]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

I see there was a traitor nailed today, which is great news, though we lost two in the process. I doubt that I will have much time to participate in this game with the deadline as it is.

Voting now to start the conversation rolling and as a place holder. I will check back in and change it if anything comes up that would change my mind about that. I would be surprised if that were to happen though, or totally reading things incorrectly.

At this point it's between jeff and darth in my mind.

vote jeff061

Those are actually the two names that I wanted to look at as well.

Lathum's vote for Saldana rather than for Jeff brings up some questions.

As for DV, no-show for day1 and a drive-by vote on day2 (as I pointed out earlier about him and Danny, though Danny ended up as a villager).

I'll start the ball rolling on the other

vote DV

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by jeff061

By the way, I blame you for this Zinto

Hahaha you can. There was no way I was going to start any vote on you and I doubt that is where my vote is going to go, because I can hardly say "he voted for two villagers" since you where in total self-preservation mode.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Lathum

well, looks like my vote will be meaningless so I'll change. I realy want to look closer at the quiet D1 players and would be open to moving to one of them if others feel like that is a good play.

A few people have made mention of me being quiet. The deadline is rough for me. I work 8-5 PST, then go home and play with my son, get him to bed, etc... and can'tr get on until between 10-11 EST. My life is just to hectic to be the vocal player I once was.

I don't want a meaningless vote so

Unvote CF
Vote Saldana


I think his alligence will tell us a alot about tyke and McKerny. It would be really easy for a wolf to cast a late vote that pushes someone further ahead and claim it was to protect against a tie when really it was to protect another wolf.

INteresting, so yes this is what someone was pointing out - Lathum's hoping to get a switch to the unknown players. Is this because he wants us to get away from Jeff? Or because there's some wolves in Mauboy voters? The fact that he followed this with a kill on Danny is curious, one of those quiet players.

[J23]

I suspect the Danny kill was Seer hunting. Thinking that the lack of participation might have been trying to stay under the radar with an important role.

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by J23

Those are actually the two names that I wanted to look at as well.

Lathum's vote for Saldana rather than for Jeff brings up some questions.

As for DV, no-show for day1 and a drive-by vote on day2 (as I pointed out earlier about him and Danny, though Danny ended up as a villager).

I'll start the ball rolling on the other

vote DV

I want to look at DV also but I am going to wait to throw another vote on him till he has a chance to defend himself. I am wondering if he is a wolf if he wanted to spread his vote over different candidates and got stuck there because he couldn't make the deadline.

[jeff061]

I think Tyke at that time was the counter to me, based purely on vote count. Sal had a couple, but pretty much came out of nowhere.

[jeff061]

I'm hesitant to cast votes before tomorrow morning. Just feels to early. Deadline's kind of messing with me.

[CrimsonFox]

After our little spat today, I feel pretty good about tyketime, especially with the Lathum vote on him. For now I've made up my mind, which may change tomorrow.

I like my thought before that one of the first four saldana voters is a wolf.
One of them was also:
The first person to vote for mauboy day AND the first person to jump on the tyketime train to vote against me today.

VOTE bhlloy

[CrimsonFox]

that's "mauboy day 1"

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by jeff061

I'm hesitant to cast votes before tomorrow morning. Just feels to early. Deadline's kind of messing with me.

I think we should try to get as much discussion as we can today, since a few people are having trouble with the deadline.

[J23]

It was 4-3-3 with Tyke in the lead, but Tyke hadn't voted yet, and your vote was on Tyke at the time, meaning that it was easier to get the run going on Saldana than on Tyke.

[mckerney]

Nice to get the kill on Lathum, but overall not a great day. Probably one that doesn't have me looking too good either with the wrong choice to switch from jeff061.

At least we got something today though, hopefully we can get a lead of some kind off what he'd said so far. Will have to look it over, wouldn't surprise me if there wasn't much though.

[jeff061]

Originally Posted by Zinto

I think we should try to get as much discussion as we can today, since a few people are having trouble with the deadline.

Fair enough, I'll try to peak in tonight.

[J23]

the above was in response to this post by Jeff:

Originally Posted by jeff061

I think Tyke at that time was the counter to me, based purely on vote count. Sal had a couple, but pretty much came out of nowhere.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

At this point it's between jeff and darth in my mind.

vote jeff061

Eagle can you explain your two early votes on sal the first two days. I thought I might have an idea of what they were about which is why I didn't want to question you yesterday but, apparently, I was wrong.

And how exactly is it jeff or Darth?

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Autumn

INteresting, so yes this is what someone was pointing out - Lathum's hoping to get a switch to the unknown players. Is this because he wants us to get away from Jeff? Or because there's some wolves in Mauboy voters? The fact that he followed this with a kill on Danny is curious, one of those quiet players.

Also someone who missed the first day vote. It looked like Lathum was preparing the way for a vote on the first day non-voters today. Makes taking out Danny odd, unless none of the non-voters are wolves and Lathum wanted to narrow the field to make it easier to concentrate on one of them.

Standard disclaimer that Lathum is good enough a wolf to cover his tracks, although, really, he was under no scrutiny at all. Apart from from one person, apparently.

[Autumn]

I suppose the other thing about Danny is that his vote was left on Tyketime, so killing a Tyke voter leaves us more in the dark about Jeff/Saldana voters. That makes me feel better about Darth, as the wolves wouldn't have wanted to leave him on an island there.

A vote history will be useful, as I'm not sure what the vote was at when Lathum moved.

[JAG]

Yeah, if no one has time to do it today, I'll put it together tonight or tomorrow morning. Trying to do it on an iPhone is just too painful.

[Danny]

Good luck village. Don't think ill be playing in more 12PM deadline games

[JAG]

Upon reflection, the Luca kill had a great outcome for us, but it was rather risky since there could be two wolf roles that would have taken him out even if he was sure or had a good feeling Lathum was a wolf.

[Narcizo]

Day One

EF votes Saldana 120 (1)
Narcizo votes Mckerney 122 (1)
J23 votes Chief Rum 132 (1)
JAG votes Mckerney 148 (2)
Lathum votes tyketime 153 (1)
Autumn votes tyketime 160 (2)
bhlloy votes mauboy1 161 (1)
jeff061 votes mauboy1 170 (2)
mauboy1 votes tyketime 176 (3)
mckerney votes tyketime 178 (4)
narcizo unvotes mckerney (1)
narcizo votes mauboy1 (3)
autumn unvotes tyketime 184 (3)
autumn votes mckerney 185 (2)
tyketime votes mauboy 193 (4)
mckerney unvotes tyketime 194 (2)
mckerney votes mauboy 194 (5)
chief votes tyketime (3)
J23 unvotes chief rum (0)
J23 votes tyketime (4)
saldana votes mauboy (6)
martind votes mckerney (3)
zinto votes mauboy (7)

Day Two

Zinto votes Jeff (242) 1
CrimsonFox votes Tyke (289) 1
Tyke votes CrimsonFox (290) 1
Eaglefan voted Saldana (294) 1
Darth Vilus voted Tyke (295) 2
Narcizo voted Sal (298) 2
Danny voted Tyke (315) 3
Jackal voted Jeff (316) 2
Bhlloy voted CrimsonFox (317) 2
McKerney voted Jeff (322) 3
Autumn voted CrimsonFox (336) 3
Jeff voted Tyke (338) 4
JAG voted CrimsonFox (341) 4
Lathum voted CrimsonFox (347) 5
Tyke unvoted CrimsonFox (354) 4
CrimsonFox unvoted tyke (381) 3
Saldana voted tyke (384) 4
JAG unvoted CrimsonFox (391) 3
Bhlloy unvoted CrimsonFox (400) 2
Bhlloy voted Saldana (400) 3
J23 voted Jeff (427) 4
Lathum unvotes CrimsonFox (444) 1
Lathum votes Saldana (444) 4
Jeff unvotes Tyke (453) 3
Jeff votes Sal (453) 5
CrimsonFox votes Jeff (462) 5
MartinD votes Jeff (463) 6
Tyke votes Sal (479) 6
McKerney unvotes jeff (482) 5
McKerney votes Sal (482) 7
JAG votes Jeff (495) 6
Autumn unvotes CrimsonFox (501) 0
Autumn votes saldana (501) 8

[Narcizo]

Tried to post this one and my connection died.

Don't have time for an analysis tonight I'll put something together during your guy's night. Just quickly day one looks positive for tyke while I have a fair amount of faith for CrimsonFox after day two. Nothing like clearing either of them but I think it means we want to look elsewhere today.

[Autumn]

Thanks, Narcizo, that's great.

[Autumn]

Don't know how I missed the fact that, if I'm reading this right, when Lathum voted he made it 4-4-4. And then later complained about JAG making it 7-6. lol

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

After our little spat today, I feel pretty good about tyketime, especially with the Lathum vote on him. For now I've made up my mind, which may change tomorrow.

I like my thought before that one of the first four saldana voters is a wolf.
One of them was also:
The first person to vote for mauboy day AND the first person to jump on the tyketime train to vote against me today.

VOTE bhlloy

If you are a villager, why would I jump off you to go onto Saldana?

[Autumn]

So did Lathum have a double vote, I guess someone said? So he was really making it 5-4-4

[Autumn]

Well, Jeff certainly seems the primary suspect after looking at the votes. He and Lathum manage to swing the vote to Saldana, especially if Lathum had a double vote. Nothing ironclad enough to make him our only candidate, but he certainly should be in the running.

Also on my radar is Mckerney. I didn't really like the way he used my logic to validate his move to Saldana. That's the kind of things wolves do to keep the blame from sticking to them. I think there was someone else who did that too, I'll have to read back.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Autumn

So did Lathum have a double vote, I guess someone said? So he was really making it 5-4-4

Yes, Sonny's vote counted as double no matter who it was on.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Well, Jeff certainly seems the primary suspect after looking at the votes. He and Lathum manage to swing the vote to Saldana, especially if Lathum had a double vote. Nothing ironclad enough to make him our only candidate, but he certainly should be in the running.

Also on my radar is Mckerney. I didn't really like the way he used my logic to validate his move to Saldana. That's the kind of things wolves do to keep the blame from sticking to them. I think there was someone else who did that too, I'll have to read back.

As I stated earlier, I know that with the outcome of the vote my switch it going to put some heat on me. We could certainly do worse than lynching me, though it'd still end up with another dead villager.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Well, Jeff certainly seems the primary suspect after looking at the votes. He and Lathum manage to swing the vote to Saldana, especially if Lathum had a double vote. Nothing ironclad enough to make him our only candidate, but he certainly should be in the running.

Also on my radar is Mckerney. I didn't really like the way he used my logic to validate his move to Saldana. That's the kind of things wolves do to keep the blame from sticking to them. I think there was someone else who did that too, I'll have to read back.

One thing in mckerney's favor is that with the vote 2-1-1 mckerney over two known villagers D1, Lathum introduced a fourth candidate instead of voting one of the others up to two. Now admittedly he couldn't vote sal to two without raising suspicion, but CR wouldn't have been too surprising for him.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

If you are a villager, why would I jump off you to go onto Saldana?

This is a good point. THanks for addressing it. A possibility is that I no longer mattered at that point. Two people had just unvoted me (a reverse run...a walk, if you will) and it seemed that others might. I only had 3 people on me including you. (although Lathum was one of them). But since saldana is a villager too, one villager is good as another.

You wouldn't vote for jeff if both of you were wolves at that point. But if jeff is a villager, it does you no harm to move to saldana.

So any situation, the jump to villager sal is possible. but this was just based on the votes I saw. Now that Narcizo has posted the whole voting patterns I may see something else.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Eagle can you explain your two early votes on sal the first two days. I thought I might have an idea of what they were about which is why I didn't want to question you yesterday but, apparently, I was wrong.

And how exactly is it jeff or Darth?

The day one sal vote was just that, a day one vote. The deadline in this game is not one that I will ever likely be on much for (a quick check in at best) so my votes will almost always be made early (so that I at least get one in). I'll change if anything strikes me as odd, or in light of a reveal that seems legit.

The day two vote was made on misreading his day one vote. I thought his vote description sounded odd for that time of the "day" as it was nearing the deadline. It's one thing to vote someone for "revenge" early in the day but when it is crunch time it just seemed odd to use that reason for the vote. Seemed as if he was setting himself up for an excuse when mau came back good.

I am getting a wolf vibe from darth and the jeff reason is something that I saw earlier in the game that someone said which got me thinking and now combined with today's vote and Lathum being a wolf. That pushes jeff past darth at the moment; at least in my eyes.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

If you are a villager, why would I jump off you to go onto Saldana?

At that point it seemed like there could be momentum off CF as I gad unvoted him. If you are a wolf, you knew Lathum was going to switch and you could be assured of more votes ending up on sal than CF, which would be significant if Jeff is a wolf. If Jeff is a villager, then obviously it doesn't look bad or good.

[tyketime]

Just got home and am reading the past couple hours of posts. Unfortunately, I need to eat and head over to the rinks for the tournament games tonight - so I don't have much time now. I will be on later and will post my thoughts then.

[CrimsonFox]

So are we assuming 5 wolves with Lathum being a generic wolf and the other 4 named ones still in play? Or do we think 6? Or do we think 4 with one of the named wolves not being used?

[JAG]

Lathum was revealed as Sonny, so not generic but neutral. I would guess five wolves myself.

[JAG]

Maybe even four since Sonny was a pretty powerful role for a wolf.

[CrimsonFox]

I meant generic in that he was not one of the four that were guaranteed to be wolves.

[bhlloy]

Well, it's pretty clear to me where I think I'm going with today's vote. Other than myself, this guy is the only remaining loose end from the first day's voting. I don't really see any reason not to do this today.

Vote Jeff

[Zinto]

I am going to assume that there where 5 wolves now 4. 6 seems like too many with the wolves having an extra vote with Sonny.

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Well, it's pretty clear to me where I think I'm going with today's vote. Other than myself, this guy is the only remaining loose end from the first day's voting. I don't really see any reason not to do this today.

Vote Jeff

I would say even on Mau that you two are definitely not the only two loose ends. Narcizo and myself voted him also with no definite reason. (I did so to prevent a tie and I do not remember why he voted on Mau) Also McKerney and Tyke voting in self defense which should not just clear them in the day one vote. I don't disagree that Jeff is someone to look at but I am not sure I agree with the premise you are voting on.

[bhlloy]

Fair points. Lets say biggest loose end instead of only loose end then. Given the day 2 voting as well, I think we learn the most from that outcome. Depending on whether Jeff is wolf or villager, there are people that look worse either way.

[J23]

I think it's too early in the game to have any kind of obvious vote without a seer reveal. All it does is gives us a day of no voting history without the assurance that we have a wolf.

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by J23

I think it's too early in the game to have any kind of obvious vote without a seer reveal. All it does is gives us a day of no voting history without the assurance that we have a wolf.

I agree we can not have a run away vote this early with now way to know if Jeff is a villager or not other then educated guesses. It plays right into the wolves hand which is why, even though I believe that a lynch of Jeff will give us some good info to go on later, I am going to hold onto my vote till tomorrow when more people will be active for discussion.

[bhlloy]

I think we have some really good voting history through 2 days. Compare this to the last game where we had 3 or 4 runaway votes at the beginning and it really hurt us later on.

[Darth Vilus]

Alright guys, I'll adress whatever questions you have. The reason I've been so quiet is because the deadline absoloutely blows for me. I like to be an active player, it makes the game more fun for me. Whether I'm a vanilla, wolf, seer, duke etc. I always like to be active. The only way i'm quiet or miss deadlines is because of outside circumstances (mostly work and school). Even if it was my day off (like today, that's why i'm talking) id still miss deadline because I get out of school at 11am which is the exact same time as deadline. I don't have a phone with internet so the only time i can log on is when i'm at home. So that's why I'm especially quitet this time.

Now for Tyke

I already explained why i voted you, you were in contention for the lynch day 1 and then when that was over you tried to shift attention to the people weren't around and missed deadline. A very strange deadline that we're not used to by the way. You said that it was to get them to be more active but that just sounded like a throw away reason to me. Then when we did start showing up you were giving us heat for the way that we started playing (mostly for voting you). This just seems really inconsistent to me to be honest. You're miffed at peoople not playing and then attack them when they do. I still think there's a really strong chance that you're a wolf, the only things that you have going for you IMO is that you voted lathum and are pretty active in accusing people, i doubt a wolf would do that so early on.

[Darth Vilus]

Oh and good job to Luca by the way, awesome job nailing Lathum. I didn't really get any wolf vibe from him.

[Darth Vilus]

I think someone else had a question or concern as well but I don't remember who that was. I'll get my vote in later but I'll be missing deadline tomorrow as well. Actually i'll be out almost the whole d, Work AND school, ugh.

thur might be ok though. if i'm alive that is