2011-12 MLB Offseason Thread: Tigers are really stupid

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I don't hate it as much as everyone else. The last two or three years may be bad, but they'll probably be underpaying his value for the first two or three years. Even with the games missed this year he was still almost 6 WAR. If he gives them a couple of years of that it won't be a terrible deal.

Exactly.

As for his game being based off his speed, players like that actually tend to age better than the patient slugger types.

[Crapshoot]

I think its a good deal, and I wish the Giants had gotten in at the price. Reyes doesn't need to be the player he was this year to justify it, but 28 year old FA's with his pedigree don't come along all that often. Look at the landscape for SS's around the league - Reyes, Troy Tulowitzki, Hanley Ramirez, maybe Alexi Ramirez, Starlin Castro (who will outgrow the position) - the marginal value of Reyes over those other players is significant. IMO, the Marlins should move Hanley to CF to take advantage of his speed and let Matt Dominguez give them a lock-down left-side of the infield defensively.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

Exactly.

As for his game being based off his speed, players like that actually tend to age better than the patient slugger types.

Yup. One of the great myths of baseball, similar to the belief that big power fastball type guys have less longevity - if anything, they last longer.

[Crapshoot]

Trola: Marlins Get A Potential Bargain In Jose Reyes | FanGraphs Baseball

[jbergey22]

Its good to see a player like that not going to either the Yankees, Red Sox, or Phillies.

Hopefully the Marlins arent going all in again and have to sell off everything after the year.

[Atocep]

I think it was a move that's worth the risk for the Marlins. A middle of the order hitter with a better injury history that matches Reyes' value would have cost them at least another $50 million.

He doesn't make sense at this point for the Mets, though, and I'm glad they let him walk rather than improving their offer.

[Ksyrup]

They'll have to trade him in 2 years to pay the electric bill on that outfield HR thingie they are installing.



Did it finally come out that this was a hoax, or is it for real?

[Logan]

I dont see it as an awful deal either, but it would have been awful if it was with the Mets. The team is a solid three years from legitimately competing, and at that point even if he's healthy you have to assume he would have taken a hit in his skills. I do think his defense is being underrated though...I doubt his range will decrease over the length of his deal barring major injury.

[RomaGoth]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Its good to see a player like that not going to either the Yankees, Red Sox, or Phillies.

Hopefully the Marlins arent going all in again and have to sell off everything after the year.

We'll all be talking about the latest Marlins firesale in 3 years if they come close to winning another WS title.

[Ksyrup]

Jon Heyman is leaving SI for CBS Sports. I enjoy him as a news-breaker. For analysis or commentary though? Ugh.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Jon Heyman is leaving SI for CBS Sports. I enjoy him as a news-breaker. For analysis or commentary though? Ugh.

I agree. His connections, especially with the NY teams, are fantastic.

His analysis is among the worst at the major websites. I've gotten to the point where I just try to avoid anything other than his comments on rumors.

[Grover]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

They'll have to trade him in 2 years to pay the electric bill on that outfield HR thingie they are installing.



Did it finally come out that this was a hoax, or is it for real?

Oh this is 100% real.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

They'll have to trade him in 2 years to pay the electric bill on that outfield HR thingie they are installing.



Did it finally come out that this was a hoax, or is it for real?

Originally Posted by Grover

Oh this is 100% real.

That this is real makes me very, very happy.

[DaddyTorgo]

Let's all hope they don't acquire a HR-hitter then. Jeezus Fugly.

[RomaGoth]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Hideous. Just hideous.

[MikeVic]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

That this is real makes me very, very happy.

Yes. That spinning dolphin at the top just does it for me.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

Yes. That spinning dolphin at the top just does it for me.

+1

[Grover]

I've read that the monstrosity also makes sounds. I'm hoping for loud, obnoxious dolphin type clicks.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I agree. His connections, especially with the NY teams, are fantastic.

His analysis is among the worst at the major websites. I've gotten to the point where I just try to avoid anything other than his comments on rumors.

Well, the running joke is that he's paid by the Boras Corp; I'm a Scott Boras admirer, but you can always find Heyman pumping up the "expected price tag" on any of the former's clients.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

Yes. That spinning dolphin at the top just does it for me.

I can't see how any one piece of that is any less awesome than the rest

SI

[Ksyrup]

So a couple of Pujols-related items:

1. Are the Marlins for real? If they add Pujols and Reyes, wow. I assume even if they are serious, Pujols is just using them to up STL's offer. But we'll see.

2. His agent, Dan Lozano. Has anyone read the Deadspin stuff? Holy hell. I won't even link to it because it's got some racy pics (although redacted a bit on the site). Guy seems like one hell of a dirt bag, even by sports agent standards, and Heyman reported that Pujols' wife wants him gone. Of course, I believe Lozano stole him from Boras, so maybe this plays into the pro-Boras slant Heyman takes. Anyway, it's quite the entertaining read.

[Ksyrup]

miklasz Bernie Miklasz
Here we go “@JoeStrauss: For Cards honks wondering if it's time to worry about Pujols' possible exit, my answer: Yes.”


miklasz Bernie Miklasz
and this: “@Jon_Heyman: hearing #Marlins boosted offer to pujols to 10 years, matching arod's in length. they are obvs pushing hard.”

[Easy Mac]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

Yes. That spinning dolphin at the top just does it for me.

Pretty sure that's a Marlin.

[RomaGoth]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

miklasz Bernie Miklasz
Here we go “@JoeStrauss: For Cards honks wondering if it's time to worry about Pujols' possible exit, my answer: Yes.”


miklasz Bernie Miklasz
and this: “@Jon_Heyman: hearing #Marlins boosted offer to pujols to 10 years, matching arod's in length. they are obvs pushing hard.”

This is shaping up to be one of the worst contracts in the history of MLB.

[Ksyrup]

It will have an out after 3 years, at which point Pujols will exercise it and the Marlins will be more than happy to see him sign elsewhere. That's my guess.

[Suicane75]

Isn't it more likely that in 3 years time the contract will still be worth way more what Pujols could get on the open market?

[jbergey22]

Stay in St Louis Albert.

[Izulde]

White Sox trade Sergio Santos to the Blue Jays for Nestor Molina. Most fans are furious about the deal. At first blush, I think I like it. Santos was overrated and an average closer. Even if Molina grades out at the max ceiling of mid-rotation starter that some tab him with, starting pitching is more valuable than a closer.

Plus I can make lots of Nestor the Long-Eared Donkey jokes.

[Grover]

Originally Posted by HiFiRevival

Go to Florida Albert. It's good for Nats fans if two of the divisional opponents are completely hamstrung with awful contracts in a couple of years.

Yes, go to Florida. The more we can see that beautiful piece of art rising from center field after each of your home runs, the better.

[DeToxRox]

Originally Posted by Izulde

White Sox trade Sergio Santos to the Blue Jays for Nestor Molina. Most fans are furious about the deal. At first blush, I think I like it. Santos was overrated and an average closer. Even if Molina grades out at the max ceiling of mid-rotation starter that some tab him with, starting pitching is more valuable than a closer.

Plus I can make lots of Nestor the Long-Eared Donkey jokes.

Seeing a lot of tweets that Molina is pegged as a reliever.

[stevew]

If the Marlins sign Albert they would have a scary sick lineup. LoMo, Stanton, Pujols, Reyes, Hanley. Plus Buck is solid. If they produce to potential it won't matter who plays 2b/3b(or CF)

[stevew]

Originally Posted by HiFiRevival

Go to Florida Albert. It's good for Nats fans if two of the divisional opponents are completely hamstrung with awful contracts in a couple of years.

Definitely like to see opponents pay players more than they are Werth.

[stevew]

Trola-

Expanded interleague play could potentially give Pujols 5 weekend series away from the field in later years of his deal. Theoretically this should provide some nice rest opportunities.

[Izulde]

Originally Posted by DeToxRox

Seeing a lot of tweets that Molina is pegged as a reliever.

In any case, I think it was decent value for Santos, who I see imploding, no matter how team friendly his contract.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by RomaGoth

This is shaping up to be one of the worst contracts in the history of MLB.

That's batshit crazy. Albert Pujols is the best player in baseball - this isn't like overpaying for Jayson Werth or Barry Zito or even Carl Crawford (a tick above the other 2) - he's a 1st ballot HOF. If he's 35 rather than 31, that complicates things, and no long-term contract like this every looks good on the back-end, but Pujols is worth overpaying for.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Grover

Yes, go to Florida. The more we can see that beautiful piece of art rising from center field after each of your home runs, the better.

Gold

SI

[sterlingice]

No matter how old he is, in 5 years he won't be worth his contract. And if you're paying him 10, that's a big problem. Sooner if he's older than he claims to be.

SI

[Pumpy Tudors]

I wish the Marlins had a big rotating Chili Davis at the top of that home run sign.

[Logan]

I hope Pujols gets that enormous contract just to see what his agent will do with that commission check (read the article Ksyrup mentioned a couple weeks ago, it's a good one).

[MikeVic]

Originally Posted by Pumpy Tudors

I wish the Marlins had a big rotating Chili Davis at the top of that home run sign.

[Pumpy Tudors]

this is what i come down here for

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by stevew

Definitely like to see opponents pay players more than they are Werth.

[RomaGoth]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

That's batshit crazy. Albert Pujols is the best player in baseball - this isn't like overpaying for Jayson Werth or Barry Zito or even Carl Crawford (a tick above the other 2) - he's a 1st ballot HOF. If he's 35 rather than 31, that complicates things, and no long-term contract like this every looks good on the back-end, but Pujols is worth overpaying for.

A ten year contract for a guy who plays a position and a style that shows wear and tear in early to mid-30's (outside of HGH and roids that is)?

No thanks.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by HiFiRevival

Was the best player in baseball. He's arguably not even the best 1B in baseball right now (Cabera, Votto, Gonzalez, Fielder). He's still very, very good, but his descent has already begun.

Pujols had a streak of 7 years with a WAR between 8.2 and 10.1. 2010 it dropped to 7.5. Last year down to 5.1. The HR numbers are dropping yearly now. His BB% took a nosedive last season. His ISO was the 2nd worst of his career. His wOBA was the worst of his career and has gone down 3 years in a row.

He's probably still a top 20 position player, graded out around 30 last year, but how much longer does that last? Then there's the question about whether or not he's really only 32 in January. I wouldn't bet on that being true.

I would pick him up for 4-5 years. 7 would be a bit of a stretch. 10 is a horrible idea.

Pujols also broke his wrist and only missed 2 weeks. I'm willing to give him a pass on last season considering wrist injuries typically affect a hitter for several months after completely healing.

It's not completely crazy to assume a career low in BABIP, a rise in ground balls, and a drop in walks is largely because of the injury. His HR/FB and LD% were in line with his 2010 totals.

You also aren't going to get Pujols for 4 or 5 years. You're not getting any star player position player for a deal that short on an open market. You're signing him to a 10 year deal to make a run at a world series for 4-5 years and then you figure out the backend of the deal when you get there. Pujols is exactly the type of player you give too many years to because the value on the front end is so high.

[Arles]

Ironically enough, one of the sticking points with the Miami deal is the Marlins giving Pujols a complete no-trade from year one (something they didn't do for Reyes).

We'll see how serious Miami is if they end up doing that (and killing the chance of their "win for 2-3 seasons and then firesale" archetype).

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Pujols also broke his wrist and only missed 2 weeks. I'm willing to give him a pass on last season considering wrist injuries typically affect a hitter for several months after completely healing.

It's not completely crazy to assume a career low in BABIP, a rise in ground balls, and a drop in walks is largely because of the injury. His HR/FB and LD% were in line with his 2010 totals.

You also aren't going to get Pujols for 4 or 5 years. You're not getting any star player position player for a deal that short on an open market. You're signing him to a 10 year deal to make a run at a world series for 4-5 years and then you figure out the backend of the deal when you get there. Pujols is exactly the type of player you give too many years to because the value on the front end is so high.

Bingo. Pujols is perhaps the best player to hit FA since.. I dunno, A-Rod in Texas (a deal that despite all the BS, was not that bad for Texas) or Bonds / Maddux in 1992? Of course the contract will look bad in year 8 or 9; that's why you get enough surplus value early on so that you look at the overall picture. Also, once again, we realize that Ruben Amaro is an idiot - Pujols is going to get a lower AAV than Ryan Howard's 5/125 deal, by the looks of it.