STARK (GoT) Thread

[MrBug708]

Checking in

[Coffee Warlord]

Hey!

[Julio Riddols]

I know after tonight, assuming Stannis meets his end as bitterly as I expect he might, eyes will begin to shift to the North. It will be hard to protect myself or Tywin once that happens. I think pursuing Tyrion might be a good thing to try, because numbers will help a ton if we have enough to bend the vote in whichever direction we please.

[Coffee Warlord]

All eyes are indeed probably gonna be on us. I may be able to buy us an extra day or two, but it's gonna be unavoidable soon enough, if it already isn't. Done everything I can do put us in a strong position - now we just need to hang on.

Which means grabbing every damn person under the sun.

[Coffee Warlord]

Wonder if I throw a metric fuckload of money at Tyrion if he'll join us.

[Julio Riddols]

I think Tyrion intends to hold out for a bit so he doesn't get voted an enemy of the realm as soon as he joins someone.

[Julio Riddols]

A decisive and clean victory tonight will go a long way toward convincing him you are the right king to bend the knee to, however.

[Julio Riddols]

Or rather than tonight, just whenever it happens.

[Coffee Warlord]

What's the word, Herr Lannistehr?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Julio Riddols

A decisive and clean victory tonight will go a long way toward convincing him you are the right king to bend the knee to, however.

I'm all for having Tyrion join our group, but the priority needs to be bringing in Kings ... they will have far greater assets. We need to make sure we're getting our fair share of them to bend the knee.

Truth be told, if Robb wants to win this little clambake he should be trying to collude with each of them that are on the way out to come over here simultaneously while disposing of his current crop of bannermen. I'm not saying he will do that, but that is probably the optimal play if he has the silver tongue to pull it off.

[hoopsguy]

Autumn definitely wants to see us joining him for the battle. He says that he played up the tension in the thread to some extent, but he understands why Robb did what he did. He will be measuring trust based on us supporting in war, not on vote.

He also warned about potential isolation in the event that we sit out the war - that votes would turn towards us if we are viewed as the strongest house without a clear second.

Finally, he suggested that Renly could be revitalized with a win, potentially picking up a new bannerman along the way. I agree with him that there is a more clear path to the final two being in lockstep with Stannis - who has been a pretty trustworthy ally to this point - than there is if we side with Renly. Doesn't mean we are in better position to win, but I think getting to the final two seems near assured.

I would like to think that he would remain steadfast in his support for us with voting in the coming (1-2) days if we support him in the war and remove the other parties. If we have done our job wooing the neutrals, and have Joffrey ready to bend the knee to one of our sides, we should be able to control the votes.

Either way, one of the Baratheon brothers is going to be pretty upset with us at the conclusion of the war tomorrow. That will be the case whether we sit it out or participate, as best I can tell.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'm all for having Tyrion join our group, but the priority needs to be bringing in Kings ... they will have far greater assets. We need to make sure we're getting our fair share of them to bend the knee.

Truth be told, if Robb wants to win this little clambake he should be trying to collude with each of them that are on the way out to come over here simultaneously while disposing of his current crop of bannermen. I'm not saying he will do that, but that is probably the optimal play if he has the silver tongue to pull it off.

Part 1 is quite true - though Joffrey aside, I don't see any of them calling it quits just yet.

Part 2 - We're gonna be fighting several more wars, and more than likely going to be subject to at least one vote. Let's face it - some of you are gonna die, and there's not much we can do about it.

[Coffee Warlord]

Which would be why I see no harm in collecting bannermen while I can - I'd rather have a hefty supply when shit starts really going down.

[Coffee Warlord]

Though, really, the bigger part at this point isn't the bannermen - it's the boost in troops they bring.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Part 1 is quite true - though Joffrey aside, I don't see any of them calling it quits just yet.

Part 2 - We're gonna be fighting several more wars, and more than likely going to be subject to at least one vote. Let's face it - some of you are gonna die, and there's not much we can do about it.

100% agree with Part #2. My comment wasn't to paint it as some kind of sinister play on your part. Surviving as a bannerman is going to depend, to some extent, on random.org favoritism.

[Coffee Warlord]

Interesting call here.

Plausible scenarios:

1 - Joffrey sits. Greyjoy goes Renly == Stannis is toast.
2 - Joffrey goes Stannis, Greyjoy goes Renly == Toss Up. Moderate advantage to Renly if we join him, bigger advantage for Stannis if we join him.
3 - If Greyjoy sits, it's suicide for Renly.

[Coffee Warlord]

Latest intelligence says Joffrey is sitting (though that's older news), and Greyjoy is fighting for Renly. How far we can trust that, however, is the problem.

[Coffee Warlord]

Just like last time, though. It might be tactically best for us to sit on our ass. It's political death, though.

[hoopsguy]

If we haven't been able to win the political battle with the Greyjoys, and get them to sit this out along with Joffrey, then I think we likely want to support Stannis.

If we join Renly here, and crush Stannis then we clearly alienate Stannis. Is that worth 'winning' Renly when we harmed him earlier? Does he feel more loyalty to us than the Greyjoys, who only have a track record of aligning with Renly? I think there is a very real chance we are on the business end of 3:1 in that scenario.

Sitting it out - again, if we leave Stannis with a 2:1 in that battle we might find ourselves facing a 3:1 in votes and the next war.

So that is outlining what I think is the political risk, probably in worst case terms. It is entirely possible that you can spin things to some extent to change those fates, but that is my take on where we could find ourselves in coming days without siding with Stannis.

[Coffee Warlord]

Direct word today from Greyjoy indicates they are siding with Renly.

[Julio Riddols]

I think sitting this one out will give us more enemies than anything. I think helping Stannis will likely turn everyone but Stannis fully on us, and I think helping Renly wins back his support for the time being but breaks our friendship with Stannis. I feel less threatened by Renly as an opponent than I do Stannis, and if the Greyjoys have decided to join Renly, then we won't be hurting our status with them either.

I think we almost have to get involved just because we can't sit here and gather power without everyone else seeing that and trying to take it from us like everyone did to the Lannisters from day one. I think we have to join Renly and hope for the best. With all of us hitting Stannis full force, I would expect his group to be in serious trouble without the added witchcraft of Melisandre there. If we get out relatively unharmed, then I think it would be our Throne to lose.

[hoopsguy]

But that is the thing - if we are last to join Renly, and he triumps, then why wouldn't we still be the next one that Renly + Greyjoy turn on? Would Joffrey sit that one out, or join on the winning side to pave his way for going bannerman to the liege of his choice?

I don't think, at this point, we can make the safe play of joining Renly and win meaningful capital.

But that is why Robb gets paid the big tributes ... to make the hard calls.

[Julio Riddols]

We definitely agree on that last point.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Surviving as a bannerman is going to depend, to some extent, on random.org favoritism.

[Coffee Warlord]

Heh.

[MrBug708]

Why don't we just throw a wrench in everything and march on Kings Landing? Stannis and Renly are marching on each other and the Greyjoys, if it's to be believed, are siding with Renly

Probably not a realistic option. Would make things interesting...haha

[MrBug708]

Probably would annoy some neutrals though

[Julio Riddols]

There can only be one war going on a a time, though.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by JAG

Eh, you weren't going to last until the end. Since 20K wasn't enough to buy you earlier I would have spent 50K to address that mistake later.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Eh, you weren't going to last until the end. Since 20K wasn't enough to buy you earlier I would have spent 50K to address that mistake later.

If I'm reading this right, a bribe?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

If I'm reading this right, a bribe?

When Roose was declared an Enemy of the Realm, I sent a raven offering him a spot at House Lannister. Once he spurned that opportunity, I was informed that it was incumbent for me as a Lannister to pay my debts. 50k can be spent on more than a bribe ...

Obviously, conditions have changed a great deal since that time with Roose's untimely passing in battle and me joining House Stark. I merely wished to emphasize that Roose's fate was sealed, irregardless of his valor in battle.

[Coffee Warlord]

Heh. Good thing I had Barristan watching his back for would be assassins, then.

[Julio Riddols]

Renly expresses his pleasure at the message I delivered yesterday, by the way.

[Coffee Warlord]

Shocking, that.

[Julio Riddols]

Straight out of the most inconspicuous bramble patch..

[Coffee Warlord]

We march, boys.

[Coffee Warlord]

For the benefit of all. The reasons for the decision you're about to see.

- Multiple sources have told me it was Stannis vs Greyjoy & Renly. We'll see shortly, but if this was the case, this was our chance to deliver a knockout blow to one of the two navies. Hard to pass up.

- While politically, Stannis may have been slightly wiser, I don't believe there's as much of an alliance between Greyjoy & Renly as one would think. And, one, if not more bannermen are going to die today. The voting blocks will shift, and we have some neutral votes as much in our pocket as one could hope right now. All we need is one other King to vote alongside us to move things.

[Coffee Warlord]

Ultimately. I'm going for a knockout over a mere victory.

[hoopsguy]

Looking forward to seeing the fallout. I wouldn't count on Stannis bending the knee to you when that time comes.

[Coffee Warlord]

This was...a hard fucking decision. I've gone back and forth on this one since the fight was declared. Dunno if it was the right one, but...the die is cast.

[Coffee Warlord]

And if things work out according to plan, he won't have enough troops or boats to be relevant to even WORRY about that.

[Coffee Warlord]

And if they don't work out according to plan, I have a few other little surprises waiting for our rivals.

[hoopsguy]

Now if only our author was around to craft this tale. I'm not going to be around much this afternoon/evening, but was hoping to see a result here.

Do we have ravens today? I'm not sure what I would do with one at this point; would make more sense to send after war is complete if I was going to be around to do so.

[Coffee Warlord]

That was the deadline, so we'll have our next day's ravens after things process here.

[MrBug708]

I would prefer not to die

K, thx

[Coffee Warlord]

I hope you didn't attend the Bolton School of Warfare, then.

[hoopsguy]

Roose wasn't so good at capturing either, was he?

[hoopsguy]

I do enjoy making those comments, knowing that he cannot really respond at this time.

[Coffee Warlord]

I dunno man. The Dreadfort is a short ways from the Wall. He could still rise up as an Other.

[hoopsguy]

I'm more concerned about jinxing myself, being next bannerman to bite it in battle.