2015-2016 Republican Primary Season - Trump Courts the Conservatives

[stevew]

That's real? Holy shit

[Dutch]

That Demon Sheep...lmao!

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by stevew

That's real? Holy shit

Yep.

Same creative guy that came up with "King Roy" with former gov Barnes as a rampaging giant rat in a ten minute masterpiece that jumped tone all over the place. (edit) The short film was officially titled "A New Day" but what everyone remembers is King Roy the Rat. I doubt, honestly, that even 10% of the people who voted for Sonny Perdue ever saw that ad but the buzz was huge. And the more outrage it caused the better people liked it.

The weird genius behind Carly Fiorina's "demon sheep" ad.

Sonny Perdue New Day - YouTube

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Yep.

Same creative guy that came up with "King Roy" with former gov Barnes as a rampaging giant rat in a ten minute masterpiece that jumped tone all over the place. (edit) The short film was officially titled "A New Day" but what everyone remembers is King Roy the Rat. I doubt, honestly, that even 10% of the people who voted for Sonny Perdue ever saw that ad but the buzz was huge. And the more outrage it caused the better people liked it.

The weird genius behind Carly Fiorina's "demon sheep" ad.

Sonny Perdue New Day - YouTube

Jon, as a Georgian and an advertising guy, how on earth can you have a discussion of bizarre campaign ads without invoking the sacred name of Margie Lopp and probably the most stunning come-from-behind upset in a statewide election in our lifetime?????

Margie Lopp Coverdell Campaign - YouTube

(For the uninitiated, I suggest that you skip to 7:35, watch for about 30 seconds, marvel that this was an actual winning ad, then, if interested, watch the entire 11-minute video to get the sense of what a difference-maker this was.)

[Dutch]

Wow. That's awesome.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Jon, as a Georgian and an advertising guy, how on earth can you have a discussion of bizarre campaign ads without invoking the sacred name of Margie Lopp and probably the most stunning come-from-behind upset in a statewide election in our lifetime?????

Oh great, now I'll be humming that allll day. Good ol' Miss Margie, lived another 10 years or so after that, bless her heart.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Oh great, now I'll be humming that allll day.

Glad to be of service. The second I saw the demo sheep ad above, that stupid jingle popped back into my head.

The ads I'd REALLY like to find are the ones that Bo Ginn ran when he was running for Governor.

"The whole world's watchin' us, you know we're gonna win.
If you believe in Georgia, you gotta believe........in Bo Ginn!"

and

"If you're a pusha...meet the shovah!" {jail cell door slams}

EDIT: and iirc, Joe Frank Harris had a goofy jingle in that election as well. The only thing I can remember is "Joe Frank Harris is the man....Joe Frank Harris has the [plan..."

[Butter]

I'm not sure which is better, the Demon Sheep or the old lady jingle. Either way, thanks for posting them both.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

I'm not sure which is better, the Demon Sheep or the old lady jingle. Either way, thanks for posting them both.

I was in my early 20s when the old lady jingle happened. I didn't appreciate at the time how absurd it is that an election FOR THE UNITED STATES SENATE turned on....that.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Glad to be of service. The second I saw the demo sheep ad above, that stupid jingle popped back into my head.

The ads I'd REALLY like to find are the ones that Bo Ginn ran when he was running for Governor.

"The whole world's watchin' us, you know we're gonna win.
If you believe in Georgia, you gotta believe........in Bo Ginn!"

and

"If you're a pusha...meet the shovah!" {jail cell door slams}

EDIT: and iirc, Joe Frank Harris had a goofy jingle in that election as well. The only thing I can remember is "Joe Frank Harris is the man....Joe Frank Harris has the [plan..."

The earliest campaign ads -- or at least imaging/branding -- I can recall was former Macon Mayor "Machine Gun" Ronnie Thompson. Give or take, I was about 6 years old but he ended up with a bumper sticker on my pedal car

[Ryche]

Looks like Perry may be the first one out. Guessing he'll try to get through one more debate.

Ex-Texas Governor Perry can't pay presidential campaign staff: reports - Yahoo News

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by Ryche

Looks like Perry may be the first one out. Guessing he'll try to get through one more debate.

Ex-Texas Governor Perry can't pay presidential campaign staff: reports - Yahoo News

Somebody give the man a catchy jingle.

[Butter]

I'll start:

Let's put Rick Perry
Into the White House
And put Obama out...

[Solecismic]

There are new poll releases today for Iowa and New Hampshire.

Based on the national polling, the narrative that Trump had a sudden spike to about 30% and has dropped back below 20% is compelling (obviously, not certain).

People were intrigued. They listened to him. They didn't really like him. Given who Trump is, this was inevitable.

In theory, we like the idea of a complete outsider who sets the political world on its collective ear. In practice, it takes years of being an insider to do this without sounding like an ass.

The true art is in convincing people you're an outsider while you've spent years being a politician. Obama captured that perfectly. Others have tried and failed.

Trump was always a highly combustible object in his presidential dabbles. It's time to move forward.

Clearly, Walker has lost his traction. That surprises me, but it can happen to governors. When the field is relatively weak, a lack of magnetism isn't a bad thing. Walker did well in Wisconsin and won some tough races in a blue state.

But when he is up there with the varsity, he has nothing to say that defines him. He is more a product of his own story than he is a phenomenon. He doesn't inspire. He'll have some time to turn this around, because his sense of politics is decent for Republicans (I know, to Democrats his strong anti-union posture is a deal-breaker).

But my sense is that he won't rebound much. I thought he would win this race until I watched the debate last week. He still might, but he has to bring a much better game than he has so far.

The rest of the field is still juggling. Fiorina was promoted to the varsity. Cruz and Carson are essentially tied in the right-wing vote. Santorum (2012's eventual winner of that demographic) isn't going to compete. Perry is Perry - the knock on him has always been that he's not smart enough to do this. Rubio and Bush are battling for the more moderate vote, while Christie isn't gaining. Kasich is somewhere in the middle and could have a moment, though he needs a lot of polish. Paul and Huckabee have their followers, but a low ceiling.

[ISiddiqui]

The boring governor thing tends to really deep six potential stars - look at Pawlenty. It's one thing to win a governor's race when you are a bore, but its another thing to win a Presidential primary. There is far more competition for one and in most states, the gay who gets elevated to run for governor doesn't have tons of opposition and establishment backed candidates are usually in the driver's seat.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

I'll start:

Let's put Rick Perry
Into the White House
And put Obama out...

Not bad...that reminds me of some lyrics he could try out...

and to all you Republicans, that helped me win
I sincerely like to thank you
Cuz now I got the world swingin' from my nuts
Damn it feels good to be a gangsta

[lighthousekeeper]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

People were intrigued. They listened to him. They didn't really like him. Given who Trump is, this was inevitable.

Doesn't sound like sentences used to accurately describe a current front-runner.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by lighthousekeeper

Doesn't sound like sentences used to accurately describe a current front-runner.

There are 20% temporary front-runners and 40% closer-to-the-primary front-runners. Trump is from the Big Apple. Other candidates are from states that grow Oranges.

Unless Trump suddenly becomes someone else (and at 69 and given his personality, that seems rather unlikely), he's not going to be around in a few months.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Unless Trump suddenly becomes someone else (and at 69 and given his personality, that seems rather unlikely), he's not going to be around in a few months.

Maybe not in this primary field.

That's a different subject than whether or not he'll be around in the presidential race however.

As you say, change seems unlikely for him, so I suspect his long-term role will depend upon his mood & what he feels like spending time & money on.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

There are new poll releases today for Iowa and New Hampshire.

Based on the national polling, the narrative that Trump had a sudden spike to about 30% and has dropped back below 20% is compelling (obviously, not certain).

People were intrigued. They listened to him. They didn't really like him. Given who Trump is, this was inevitable.

In theory, we like the idea of a complete outsider who sets the political world on its collective ear. In practice, it takes years of being an insider to do this without sounding like an ass.

On the other hand, we must remember that about 20% of the population is contrarian as shit. I wouldn't be at all surprised, were Trump to run as a third party, if he pulled in 17-20% of the ballots cast no matter WHAT he said. That's the danger for the Republican Party. The myth is that Perot cost Bush the election, but the data shows otherwise - that the beating would have been worse in a two-man race. Trump, on the other hand, probably isn't pulling any significant liberal support, except in the sense of "oh god yes please nominate him so our candidate has an easier time."

Clearly, Walker has lost his traction. That surprises me, but it can happen to governors. When the field is relatively weak, a lack of magnetism isn't a bad thing. Walker did well in Wisconsin and won some tough races in a blue state.

And it helps that every statewide race he's had to run was either in a non-Presidential year, or the election was scheduled earlier than the general election to prevent him from having to show up on the same ballot as Barack Obama. I'm not saying he loses the recall election if it were held in November instead of June, but managing to get the state to pay for two separate ballots instead of holding the recall at the same time as the November election sure didn't hurt him any.

But when he is up there with the varsity, he has nothing to say that defines him.

He doesn't even need to be up there with the varsity for that to be true. What Scott Walker brings to the table is RAWR UNION DESTROY, "I can take on ISIS because I took on the teachers' union" and if you use numbers literally no other governor in the country uses, it makes my job creation numbers look like dried shit instead of runny shit." If Wisconsin were a regularly 'red' state instead of a blue/purplish state Republicans managed to hijack at the state level, Walker never gets a second look. Scott Walker, Governor of Kentucky, is probably not in this race. A large part of what's made him attractive to the base is the "look how impotent Democrats are against him in a blue state!" narrative.

He is more a product of his own story than he is a phenomenon. He doesn't inspire. He'll have some time to turn this around, because his sense of politics is decent for Republicans (I know, to Democrats his strong anti-union posture is a deal-breaker).

Don't underestimate him. Whether you support him or loathe him, don't underestimate him. I won't rest easy until his political future gets the Osiris treatment, no matter how poorly he's polling.

But my sense is that he won't rebound much.

I fervently hope that you're correct.

I thought he would win this race until I watched the debate last week. He still might, but he has to bring a much better game than he has so far.

If he's got Koch and Adelson money behind him, he may just be laying in the tall grass a little bit letting the Rick Perrys of the world blaze across the sky before he steps forward. Why shout to be heard over sixteen other candidates when you can wait for a few to fizzle out because you know you'll have the resources to make yourself heard closer to January?

The rest of the field is still juggling. Fiorina was promoted to the varsity. Cruz and Carson are essentially tied in the right-wing vote. Santorum (2012's eventual winner of that demographic) isn't going to compete. Perry is Perry - the knock on him has always been that he's not smart enough to do this. Rubio and Bush are battling for the more moderate vote, while Christie isn't gaining. Kasich is somewhere in the middle and could have a moment, though he needs a lot of polish. Paul and Huckabee have their followers, but a low ceiling.

Of the names listed here, I'd expect Carson to be one of the fizzouts. Concur that Santorum isn't doing anything. Perry smells like blood in the water right now, but McCain was in a similar position before rebounding to win the nomination. Being broke this early doesn't necessarily mean he's done. It's for sure not a good look. Christie isn't going anywhere, I don't think. The ObamaHug is probably going to be the albatross around his neck with primary voters, where it wouldn't necessarily hurt him in the general. I think what we're going to see with Rubio is that he doesn't have the cachet to get it done this year, but that he'll get a solid look as a VP candidate, and 4-8 years from now, he'll be the GOP's standard bearer for the nomination (depending on how next November goes).

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Maybe not in this primary field.

That's a different subject than whether or not he'll be around in the presidential race however.

As you say, change seems unlikely for him, so I suspect his long-term role will depend upon his mood & what he feels like spending time & money on.

He strikes me as kinda capricious, but the other thing I wonder is, he keeps talking about leaving the door open in case he's mistreated. But what constitutes mistreated? If he doesn't get invited to a varsity debate because he falls to #11, is that Run Donald Run territory?

If the delegate maneuvering that sometimes happens in the caucuses freezes out his slate, does that trigger a third-party run?

If the other sixteen candidates go full Bash Trump?

Basically I wonder what it would take for the Doomsday Button to get pushed.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

That's a different subject than whether or not he'll be around in the presidential race however.

As he said over and over this morning, he likes to whine.

What he doesn't like doing, however, is pissing away his money. He's not going to run as an independent unless he feels the party unfairly prevented him from winning the nomination and there's a groundswell of support.

Right now, he can dream a little about that, but if he sticks around into February and sees single-digit results, he'll stop dreaming and go away.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

Basically I wonder what it would take for the Doomsday Button to get pushed.

Honestly, if we take him at face value on his goals, then anyone other than himself seems likely to push that button. I mean, to this point at least, there's nobody else close to showing the fire to lead us anywhere we need to go.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

As he said over and over this morning, he likes to whine.

What he doesn't like doing, however, is pissing away his money. He's not going to run as an independent unless he feels the party unfairly prevented him from winning the nomination and there's a groundswell of support.

Right now, he can dream a little about that, but if he sticks around into February and sees single-digit results, he'll stop dreaming and go away.

I think being the straw that broke the GOP apart -- in order for something better to emerge from the ruins -- might have some appeal. Think of it as "demolition before bigger & better reconstruction". If he left the field today & announced as a third and chose a running mate well he might just beat anyone the GOP offered in November.

[Abe Sargent]

Im a pro-union Republican. So Walker was always was the guy on the stage I was least likely to vote for not named Trump. But I am surprised that he dipped so much, and frankly, I thought Mr Bulldog Christie won a battle against Rand Paul (even if I disagree with him on this issue) and I was surprised that he fell in the polls as well.

[Abe Sargent]

I recall back in 2012 after a lot of losses, the Republican Party had a large survey, self-assessment,a nd the chair had a large press conference about it on C Span. Bascially, the point was that the Party was viewed by too much of America as the party of old white men. So I think it would behoove them to have a strong Presidential candidate who is either not a man, or not a white man.

So to my mind, a Rubio, a Jindal, a Carson or a Cruz or Fiorino would be better, long term for the growth of the party, than Bush III or Walker or even someone I personally like from the field (Paul, Kasich, Christie).

The Democrats nominated the first non-white guy, and he won. They are about to (likely) nominate the first woman. You can;t put Donald Trump or Bush or Walker up against that and expect that long-term growth of the party will result

[digamma]

From Nate Silver. I chuckled.


@NateSilver538: Media: Trump's doing great!
Nerds: No. Those polls don't mean what you think.
Media: A new poll shows Trump doing great! Proved you wrong!

[stevew]

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics...-car-20150812?

[NobodyHere]

I thought this was pretty funny.

Trump mocks Paul, Fiorina and Bush at rally | TheHill

Originally Posted by The Trump

Carly was a little nasty to me,” Trump said. “Be careful, Carly. Be careful. But actually, I can’t say anything to her because she’s a woman and I don’t want to be accused of being tough on women.”



“I promised I wouldn’t say that she ran Hewlett Packard into the ground,” Trump said. “I said I would not say it. That her stock value tanked. That she laid off tens of thousands of people and she got viciously fired. I said I would not say it. And that she then went out and ran against Barbara Boxer for senator of California, and it’s a race that should have been won and she lost in a landslide, and I said, I will not say that, ok? So I’m not going to say it."

[SackAttack]

"should have been won"? In California? That IS funny.

[Dutch]

Watch a bit of Trump on Fox News...I have to admit, I like his boldness...no, not his baldness.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

"should have been won"?

Isn't that what Steve Perry says in "Oh Sherry"?

[JPhillips]

Saw this regarding the latest Fox poll.

53% of respondents in that Fox News national poll support Trump, Carson, Cruz or Huckabee, which is more than twice the percentage supporting Bush, Walker, Rubio, Kasich or Christie combined.

[molson]

And yet in the most recent Fox News head-to-head polls, Bush and Rubio both defeat Clinton, while Trump loses to Clinton. Which I guess just means that non-Republicans really like Bush and Rubio (relatively speaking) and really hate Trump.

[Dutch]

I'm sensing what we are really seeing is the 3-party (or at least a 3-philosophical) grouping some of us have always desired...

LEFT - Sanders
CENTRIST (Moderately Left/Right) - Clinton/Bush/Rubio
RIGHT - Trump

And as long as the lower class is evenly split between left and right (poor whites and poor blacks), the Centrists will battle it out in the end.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Dutch

I'm sensing what we are really seeing is the 3-party (or at least a 3-philosophical) grouping some of us have always desired...

LEFT - Sanders
CENTRIST (Moderately Left/Right) - Clinton/Bush/Rubio
RIGHT - Trump

And as long as the lower class is evenly split between left and right (poor whites and poor blacks), the Centrists will battle it out in the end.

Your grouping certainly fits with my feeling that there's not enough difference in Clinton or Bush to be worth voting over.

[molson]

And it's still fascinating that the "right" wing guy in that scenario supported TARP, the auto bailouts, the assault weapon ban, a one-time 14% tax/wealth redistribution from the wealthy, abortion rights, universal healthcare, and Hillary Clinton. And I can't find any reference to him having any interest in or respect for religion until he decided to run for president. Unless it's true that Republicans are supporting him just to sabotage their own party so everything can be blown up and rebuilt. It's a crazy election year to do that, when so much of America doesn't like Clinton, and where a non-scary moderate Republican is a not only a threat to beat her, but will probably start ahead of her in the polls.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by molson

where a non-scary moderate Republican

If you're running another worthless moderate, what's the f'n point?

Just let Hilary preside over the swirl down the drain in that scenario.

[molson]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

If you're running another worthless moderate, what's the f'n point?

Just let Hilary preside over the swirl down the drain in that scenario.

On Supreme Court appointments alone, America would be much more conservative under a Bush presidency than under a Clinton presidency. Isn't that worth something to a Republican?

Where if you get Trump, you're potentially getting someone who's further to the left than Bernie Sanders on some issues. And even if he's going to continue to pretend he's conservative after he wins an election, he has no proven ability to push his pretend beliefs and turn them into actual law.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by molson

On Supreme Court appointments alone, America would be much more conservative under a Bush presidency than under a Clinton presidency. Isn't that worth something to a Republican?

Where if you get Trump, you're potentially getting someone who's further to the left than Bernie Sanders on some issues. And even if he's going to continue to pretend he's conservative after he wins an election, he has no proven ability to push his pretend beliefs and turn them into actual law.

If they (the candidate) aren't fixing immigration, aren't fixing gay "marriage" , aren't fixing reversals on law & order, aren't fixing Obamacare, aren't moving toward a flat tax ... well damn, what are they doing that matters?

I'm not interested in "compromise", we're already so completely twisted up in so many directions that giving any more ground just represents another spiral down the drain.

I want shit fixed, I want it fixed in short order, or I'd prefer to see the whole damn country burn to the f'n ground.

edit to add: As for what Trump believes, damn if I know. What I DO know is that he's at least got the balls to SAY things that have needed saying instead of trying to surrender repeatedly (yes Jeb, that means you, you gutless wonder). At least with Trump there's a CHANCE ... however slim. With Jeb, there's none.

[molson]

Oh right, I forgot about gay marriage - that issue has been lost for Republicans already, but Trump also supported gay civil unions, an expansion of the Civil Rights Act to include a prohibition against discrimination against gays, and for gay people to be allowed to serve openly in the military.

Donald Trump's Big Gay Problem | Mother Jones

Seriously, almost any political or social issue, if you look it up, Trump used to be liberal before he decided to run for president. A record like that would bury any other Republican candidate.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I want shit fixed, I want it fixed in short order, or I'd prefer to see the whole damn country burn to the f'n ground.

The far-right toddler-patriot. If I don't get what I want, burn it down.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

The far-right toddler-patriot. If I don't get what I want, burn it down.

If it isn't made right, it's not fit to stand afaic.

I'd sooner see it put out of its misery than degraded any more than its already been. Let at least the memory of it being worth a damn remain somewhat intact rather than being tarnished any farther.

[molson]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

If it isn't made right, it's not fit to stand afaic.

I'd sooner see it put out of its misery than degraded any more than its already been. Let at least the memory of it being worth a damn remain somewhat intact rather than being tarnished any farther.

I guess I can kind of see the romantic appeal of that, IF the party went down and out nominating a true conservative who got buried in the general election. As opposed to liberal Donald Trump. For the party to make its "last stand" with a liberal who fooled them all - that'd be pathetic. They'd not only lose the presidency, they will have nominated the most liberal presidential candidate since Jimmy Carter. (Trump is more liberal than Carter on paper, in terms of things he's said, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and not go further back than that.)

[JPhillips]

As luck would have it I just stumbled upon the perfect quote for this discussion.

Mr. Burns: This anonymous clan of slack-jawed troglodytes has cost me the election, and yet if I were to have them killed, I would be the one to go to jail. That’s democracy for you.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by molson

I guess I can kind of see the romantic appeal of that, IF the party went down and out nominating a true conservative who got buried in the general election. As opposed to liberal Donald Trump. For the party to make it's "last stand" with an liberal who fooled them all - that'd be pathetic. They'd not only lose the presidency, they will have nominated the most liberal presidential candidate since Jimmy Carter.

Again, I give a damn WHAT he thinks, I care about what he does. And how many candidates in the field are even willing to pretend to get stuff right at this point?

I'm not sold on Trump,it's quite possible that there is no answer in the GOP field at all ... but he's one of the few who've gotten something that matters right even merely talking. It's at least possible that he's come to his senses on multiple issues instead of losing his mind on them as the trend seems to be.

Look, I'll be honest: I think the country is too far down the drain to save no matter who wins any election. But at least there's some miniscule hope this way.

[molson]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Again, I give a damn WHAT he thinks, I care about what he does. And how many candidates in the field are even willing to pretend to get stuff right at this point?

I'm not sold on Trump,it's quite possible that there is no answer in the GOP field at all ... but he's one of the few who've gotten something that matters right even merely talking. It's at least possible that he's come to his senses on multiple issues instead of losing his mind on them as the trend seems to be.

Look, I'll be honest: I think the country is too far down the drain to save no matter who wins any election. But at least there's some miniscule hope this way.

And what has Trump "done"? He's all talk.

Even his immigration stuff, which is definitely the thing that gives him the moat broad appeal, is made up. This is what he said about notorious RINO Mitt Romney's immigration views. "He had a crazy policy of self-deportation, which was maniacal," Trump told Newsmax. "It sounded as bad as it was, and he lost all of the Latino vote." Trump added that the GOP should develop better policies "with respect to people wanting to be wonderful, productive citizens of this country." He's further left on immigration than Mitt Romney. Until he decided to run for president. (Edit: And even during this run, he's flipping back and forth between deporting all illegal immigrants, and coming up with some merit system to deport only the "bad ones".)

This is like a South Park episode. I wonder if Clint Eastwood could become the front-runner for the Democratic nomination if he just pretended to be liberal for a year two, despite his long history of expressed conservative views.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by molson

And what has Trump "done"? He's all talk.

He's not afraid to say something that might offend a bunch of criminal invaders nor those traitors who support the invasion.

THAT has value.

Who knows, he might actually be the guy who has the balls to do what should have been done years ago: mobilize the military and enforce actual borders.

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by molson

This is like a South Park episode.

I wouldn't have it any other way.

[ISiddiqui]

It's going to be hilarious if Trump gets the GOP nod and then in the general basically says "Of course I don't believe all that stuff I said in the primary election; Here's what I really want to do".