Snakebitten: A Real-Time MP FOF thread

[QuikSand]

Hmmm... looking at my rookie draft picks for the first time. Probably a "meh" class here. First look is disappointing.

[Chas in Cinti]

Is there a spot on the site to look? I saw your note and clicked your link to the roster and moved around quite a bit in the site and couldn't find the rookie class...

[QuikSand]

Nothing to look at, yet. Ben's site doesn't fully populate until after training camp, I believe. In-game there's a backdoor... from the "trade" page you can right click on rookies and see their red/green bars. They often depart meaningfully from the pre-draft blue/orange ranges.

My short take from doing this:
S Austin isn't as complete a player as I should get mid-1st
G Foreman looks good but not great, edge toward pass blocker, not maxed
DE McCormick could develop, will need to bump in preseason
RB Lindsay will be yet another 36/36 guy with decent bars, not awful
LB Brotzman looks like an eventual LB4/5 type, meh (could bump and excite)

[QuikSand]

We did pull off a big draft pick trade... all my 2-7 picks for the next three drafts are gone to Jacksonville, whose new owner wants to rebuild the whole roster. We get next year's 1st and their next two 2nds. That first could be early-ish, which would be nice.

[QuikSand]

Okay, draft and early FA processed, and now our post-draft pickups are in place. Big disappointment, as my back pocket method to lock up great DB chemistry for a long time fails me... my 242 lb LB Jay James (11/12 group, 73 Ldr, 92 Pers) cannot lose weight in camp, and therefore won't ever switch to play safety. Rats.

Need to look for an alternative plan, here's who we are building around... with "expected role a few years out" as the position listed.

Group Ldr/Prs Exp Role  Name                  Notes
8/9    33/57   6  CB1/2 Sammie Metzenbaum     could play safety too
8/9    72/99   2  CB4   Gregory Baskerville   big bump, ST
8/9    21/98   3  CB3-5 Tony Rumans           big zone, good dime guy
8/9    80/80   6  CB1/2 Alfred Cooley         all-around solid coverage
8/9    62/55   5  CB3-5 Diego Wordehoff       big zone. ST
11/12   6/10   2  CB4-6 Nicholas Barlow       man, int, ST all solid
8/9   100/98   1  CB2-4 Richie Keeler         big statics, please boom
8/9    31/68   6  S2/3  Malcolm Crane         mediocre balanced
8/9    36/88   2  S2/3  Levi McGee            maybe SS rotation
7/8    82/97   2  Bench Thomas Thomas         some run/zone, weak
8/9     3/35   1  SS1   Cole Thomas           Run D, bump, Int

So... bottom line is a few quick observations:

-We are obviously SUPER heavy in in the 8-9 group, meaning we presumably could build around a leader either the 7-8 or 11-12 groups. That is really good.

-Sadly, our rookie CB Keeler, who looks like a boom candidate to me, is so strong in Leadership that he will likely drown out anyone but a super-powered leader, eventually. And he's another 8-9 guy, so no connection with the rest of 'em. This is a thing I hate about the twists in FOF8, no way to tell if a guy's high personality will be an asset or liability. If this guy were an 11/12 or 7/8 he would be the answer, instead he's just another problem... like a guy we probably will have to cut/trade once he gets ripe.

In a perfect world, I'd stumble across a good fit guy who could hold the leadership through the last years with CB Cooley. Barring that, and assuming we eventually shake loose Keeler, it doesn't look like it's going to be too hard. My young core of 8/9 guys (CB Baskerville, Rumans, Wordehoff, and S McGee and Austin) have a max leadership of 72. Maybe the answer is already on my team, in the person of S Thomas Thomas... eventually his 82 leadership would win out over Baskerville's 72 plus one year of experience, though I confess I don't know when, exactly. If it's not until they are in 9th/8th seasons, that's too late to be helpful for sure. Ugh.

[QuikSand]

Following up... it would really suck to have to cut CB Baskerville to make chemistry work, but right now there might be no way around that. He's exactly the sort of player I really want for this - great personality fit, great special teams, and enough skill to be useful on the active roster beyond the return game. Dammit.

[QuikSand]

Okay, training camp has run... and this is unusual... nay, unprecedented:

Ravens rookie class ranked #1 in league

By Ben's voodoo metrics, he apparently has my 3rd round DE McCormick tabbed for big things, and as the biggest impact player in this class. He's near the top of the league-wide "dandies" list who look incrementally better to a real scout than to the dimwit league scout. Great sign.

He's got my 2nd round DT Pete Neil tabbed as a "dud," and I don't recall what I liked about him - maybe my own scout graded him underrated or something. He looks like a wasted pick to me, too. CB Keeler also tagged as a "dud" and that might be okay, since he wasn't a long term prospect anyway after we saw he'd be a chemistry pain long term.

Pleased, have to be.

[QuikSand]

Cutdown to 60 notes:

I'm sloughing off TE Reish - he's a great leader for right now, but no fit with 6-7 QBs, and that's our lane of the future. Relative chaos at RB for now, but that could settle down later. Not sure I have a single player there whom I expect will be on the field in 3-5 years. FB Lusignan as a special teamer and chem uber-follower, but that's it. SOPh Harden has a nice bar profile and should get his chance this season, but with only 4 personality, he'll have to be a major asset to stay long term, especially since we're unlikely to land a superior leader for this group. Rooks Royals and Lindsey... we'll see, both are semi-promising. Looming in the background is FB-cum-TE Teddy Carr, who is up to a 7 in TE experience. IN theory, he could slide back to slot at FB, probably still play a lot at TE, and anchor the chemistry for that group as a 4/5 group with 70 Ldr, 85 Pers. Possible long term play there - but would push Harden to neutral. We'll see.

At TE, we have our all-set threesome, but an after-draft pickup OJ Welch is going to spring in preseason, and put himself into our plans. Chem might be a problem, though, he's a 6-7 guy with 82/93. Great follower, but a threat to wrest away the lead and mess things up.

WR, we are thin. Thinking this is the spot for the draft capital next year, almost no matter what's on the board. I ponied up for WR Victor Lester, who really looks, to me, like a WR2 you start outside while another guy does the really heavy lifting. Instead, we're paying and using, him like a WR1. Okay, then. I'm not paying WR Richmond $15m/yr, he's a weak WR3, and wants to be paid like a WR2, not happening. Undrafted rookie Vecchio will make the team and hopefully be a long term ST asset, but a WR4 at best on a TE-heavy team, meh. This area still needs work for sure.

OL is the illustration of our long term thinking. Best guys now are C Castillo, LG Dielman, and LT Woolford, all in the 6-7 group. But in 3 years they could all be gone, and our new leadership will have a group to work around. My longer term OL cadre looks like this: G Foreman+Darby, T Peterson+Dotson. As the vets phase out, these guys will show up with cohesion and deep chemistry, even if only Grade B-C talent. One or two additions around them should have this group working just fine, even 5 years out.

DL: Well, this probably revolves around rookie McCormick now. We are in good shape for this year and next, with solid talent. But long term assets here are rookie DEs McCormick and maybe Whiting, soph specialist Baither, NT Calhoun and Prescott. If McCormick can be an anchor pass rusher in time, then we have enough to build around, if not, then pass-rushing is a priority for us in the continuing build.

LB: We are built around a 7-8 leader, to a man in both segments of the D7, and we look okay at LB. Inside, young guys Dandron (5th), Rossini (2nd), Brotzman (R) should be good enough for a long, long time. Outside, Randolph (2nd) is a low-personality stud, and Jay James (4th) is good enough to start, but better as a 3rd OLB I think. Another group we can sprinkle in the occasional rookie or free agent into, and be all set.

CB: I re-signed Metzenbaum, he's a 6th year guy but should fit fine with our chem, and may well be around for 3-5 more years now. As noted extensively above, the chemistry core here will be CB Baskerville, CB Rumans, CB Wordehoff, and maybe CB Stapleton (signed last stage on a flier). I'll assume Keeler is a castoff at some point before we come together completely. Basically another solid group, where one free agent to slot in as CB1/2 would make us just fine.

S: Not sure rookie Austin is going to be the star I wanted, but he ought to be good enough, and a long term SS asset. McGee (2nd) is good enough to start at FS. We'll give S Thomas Thomas a look this year, he could be a chemistry asset long term, otherwise, he likely won't fit into our plans. Crane (6th) is here now, but not important.

Basically, the guys who excite me with this plan are the relatively relatively unexciting guys on the roster who should stick around for a long time and become triple-threat assets from the bench: chemistry, cohesion, and special teams/single skills:

FB Lusignan
DE Tyrone Baither
LB Al Rossini
CB DIego Wordehoff

This is pretty fun. A good way, for me, to run out the clock on FOF 8.

[QuikSand]

Okay, preseason in the books. Draft still rated #1 overall -- granted that's with extra picks in rounds 1,2,3 but not anything in the first half of the first round. I'm okay with it all.

DE McCormick did indeed jump in preseason, and now looks like a solid asset. Not a superstar, but a guy who could be part of a 3-man pass rushing rotation down the line, I suspect. Great for a 3rd round pick.

S Cole Austin dipped from 68 to 61 potential by the league scout, and mine has him at 40/58, so we have to temper hopes. Probably a long term asset regardless, still has key ratings I like. But not a change-the-team player, and to take a safety in the mid-1st, that's the only way to justify expending the capital there. So, a mild miss.

RB Lindsay dropped 51-44 by league scout, mine says he's 37/50. He may have the inside track to start this year. Our other rookie Royals imploded, and our veteran Harden is so weak in personality, it would be hard to commit to him. Lindsay likely will get the better end of a 60/40 split, which might mean 200 carries.

G Foreman, our late 1st, dropped 11 by the league scout, but still looks okay. My scout says 37/69. Basically the same review as S Cole - okay, but not a value pick given the early selection. If he were a late 2nd rounder, I'd be thrilled.

G Darby is an interesting case, however. League scout says he slid 49 to 44. My scout (good) says he's a 30/58 prospect with 82 potential in run blocking. I suspect I will get him into the lineup right away, and hope I have a right guard for the next decade in him. Optimistic.

NT Neill is unexciting. Decent player, decent chemistry, but can I really commit to this guy long term? I doubt it. Likely a whiff.

My scout loved LB Brotzman, but now after a -10 move, less so. His chem profile 87/94 makes him valuable to us, though. I'll try to get him starts this year, and he likely ends up as our ILB3 - a sort of 30 tackle guy, with no special teams skill but good chem match and future leadership potential.

After-draft pickup WR Vecchio will make the team - he's nothing super special, but he'll be a great chemistry asset (68/90, sign matching the QB), can play special teams, and that's enough to stay for a decade. Here is the career arc I'd hope for from him. Hopefully for minsal the whole way.

CB Keeler was the guy who saddened me with his bad (well, great, but on the wrong sign) chemistry numbers... turns out not much of a loss. He's a bump only guy, my scout rates him 24/33 overall, and with no special teams he'd be at lest a marginal asset for us. Doesn't even make the BELCo rankings summary. Likely a cut.

DE Rico Whiting. 23/34 now, but 87 personality. Borderline call, bubbled.

TE OJ Whiting bumped by the league scout from 16/18 to 20/38, mine has him at 19/33. No one standout skill, without special teams assets he likely can't be a TE3 for us.

QB Richie Bryant, undrafted rookie, likely makes this team and sticks around, perhaps longer than Jimmy Mc. Why? It's a zero-injury league. Our starter is gonna start and play any game within reach. What good is QB2? Mentor and/or chemistry. Bryant is an 88/100 chem guy, so once he gets starts (this year, not at QB), he will be a 6-7 guy who could lead a group some day, but for now will just super-gel with our leaders from the 2-3 and 4-5 groups. Basically, this guy (and the WR) are the reason why I really should just be dumping off my 5-6-7 draft picks every year, in every league. With the way I build teams, I can do much more damage in the after-draft world (where I know more about the players) than i can during the draft where there's a massive fog of war. A perverse incentive, and partially specific to my own preferences, but so it goes.

This class isn't going to revolutionize our approach, but I think we accumulated some quality talent that can stick around. Probably 6 guys here who will still be on the team in 6-8 years, and that's not bad at all.

[QuikSand]

Side note... I manage the Ravens in the BELCo CCFL also. This year, I had gameplan/playbook problems, and after Ben exported my playbook, I decided to play it safe and install the TeddyTightEnds offense there, too. So far, so good - with a rookie QB (but a veteran team around him) we are 6-2 and on track for the postseason. We're still reeling a bit from a super-early retirement of a young QB prospect there, but the team around the QB has been very favorable, and we're getting good production from a cohesive and chem-heavy (duh) team.

[QuikSand]

Quick note - as I set up the active roster for this year, I think I'll create another metric to watch.

STIndex =
(Mean of ST ratings for active players encouraged to play ST +
Median of ST ratings for active players encouraged to play ST +
Lowest ST rating among active players encouraged to play ST)
/3

For us, this year, I'm encouraging 13 active players, with these ratings:

98 77 76
88 87 72
92 88 88 83
96 94 89

So, the mean is 86.8, the median is 88, the lowest is 72. STIndex = 82.3

I will keep an eye on this going forward for this team, and will also check after the regular season to see who actually got put in to play special teams. Even in a zero-injury league, I don't know whether 13 guys will play equal shares, or whether the team will dip into the not-encouraged gang. In theory we only need 9-11 players per play - I'd be pleased if, in this league, only 13 guys actually got used. I don't expect that, because, you know, reasons.

[QuikSand]

By the way...I'm assuming that 82+ is a BOSS number for STIndex. Possible to improve, but maybe not in another league that has injuries, without costing too much in talent.

[QuikSand]

{Morpheus Voice}
What if I told you...
-we decided to cut out two veteran linemen at LT and LG, after declines in preseason while inactive?
-we decided to go back to Jimmy Mc at QB for one last look, despite the offense being built around Teddy's skills?
-we remain thoroughly committed to the "down the road" mindset?

You'd guess... maybe 6-10? Me, too.

[QuikSand]

So, we end up 9-6-1 and in the playoffs. Smoke and mirrors FTMFW!

GML: Baltimore Ravens 2108

Jimmy Mc - fine. He's an 80-rated passer at heart, and that's what he delivers for us. Runs for 600 yards, fine. Ratio of 24/24 is the bottom line, though, that's in vintage Jameis territory. He's okay, not the answer.

RB situation - Lindsay gets the larger share, but it's Harden who actually looks good with 5.8 ypc behind a very young line.

WR Lyons in the 11-formation slot does the most damage - bad roster management by me, I guess. Top Wrs all around 7 ypa, Weydahl over 9 but on only 34 targets, WTF am I doing? (I think I must have reversed him and Carr/Austin in some key formations)

On defense... both Ramon Tuholski and Ramon Calhoun earn pro bowl tickets, with over 30 sacks between them. Black t-shirts start showing up everywhere. It's awesome.

So, we get a wild card berth, and get to visit Pittsburgh in the postseason. I don't expect much, but we'll see how it goes.

[QuikSand]

(sorry for the delay...wrote up but didn't send until returning from star wars movie)

[QuikSand]

We manage a road in in the wild card round, but fall in the divisionals to Pyser's Patriots, a perennial strong team. KC, led by Jermessiah, gets their pass-crazy offense to the tiel game but loses to a more balanced Philly team (rgvicedo).

In the playoff stage, I had to cut T Peterson (angry) but signed a young G who might have a future with us. We'll try to re-sign Peterson this offseason if he's game.

[QuikSand]

No retirements, that's good. So the build-up continues. Hoping to keep excellent staff intact, but my OC is an obvious candidate to get poached.

[QuikSand]

Okay, today's file is delayed, but my mind is on this team. So, a few notes looking at this offseason.

We hold three picks: 1.5, 1.26, and 2.6 (payoff for our trade was good, I don't often get to pick in the "lottery" zone)

We bring back 36 players on contract, with over $230m in cap space, about 35% of the total cap. So, we could be players. I don't want to get stuck in fat contracts with older players, as our cohesion strategy will require that we overpay some marginal players who get into starting roles (it's just how FOF works).

I would really like to find an offensive lineman I can plug in, especially at tackle. I messed up last season and sat down T Gage Peterson, and he got angry. He's a free agent now, and likely will cost less than the $12m he was asking to extend last year... but I've lost the cohesion benefits since I released him after the regular season ended. G Matt Turnbull, however, should be good enough to re-sign as an RFA and we should be able to keep him around a while, I think, possibly as a starter if needed. So - we will be scouring the FA market for a guy who can play LT, and that is a potential draft target area as well.

As for the draft - I feel our top team need is really WR, so I will look closely at that group for my 5th overall pick. In general, picking high should be an opportunity to target the hard-to-fill positions, like QB and WR. If there's a monster left tackle who's a chemistry fit, that might push me off the one true path, I realize.

Ideal draft would probably look like WR, OT, CB, with good skills fits in each slot. But we haven't seen the draft file yet, so no clue whether the players are there to make that happen.

[QuikSand]

Restricted free agents we expect to re-sign, barring absurd contract demands
(with my guess on their longer term role)

G Matt Turnbull (OL 5/6)
T Amos Curry (long term chem problem, trade bait I'd hope)
LB Al Rossini (ILB 3, situational run stopper, ST star)
CB Tony Rumans (CB 4/5, ST, great chem guy)
QB Richie Bryant (QB2, possible switch to become 6/7 group leader some day)
WR Fernando Vecchio (WR 4/5)
WR Corwin Smith (inactive chem WR depth)
DE Tyronne Baither (DE 4, ST)

So, if I basically consider these guys all "signed" (except maybe T Curry, who might take the chem leadership and I'd have to cut him) - we're at around 43-44 players. So, only 10 to go. 3 draft picks who should all stick. That leaves something like 7 jobs open.

Kicker
Punter
Top-shelf PR
Top-shelf KR

If I get specialists above, then I really am looking at only 6 open slots. I want these guys to be useful for several years, and to help with chemistry - so ideally I'll be looking at:

-offensive players not too old to wear out soon
-defensive players either with starts or good enough to start this year

Talent-wise, I've already laid out our main needs: WR, OT, CB. I do still have CB Gabe Everett on the team - he's not a chem fit, but he is still a CB1 talent, and it's conceivable I decide to keep him around - he's only a 7th year guy, could have 4-5 more good years ahead. If I can trade him this year for draft picks, maybe even better. He is, at the moment, our chemistry leader in the group - a second strike against him staying. I'd eat $30m in bonus this year and next to move/cut him, but that money is committed either way. Might prove to be a tough call.

Incidentally, CB Sammie Metzenbaum took a pretty big hit in ratings last season. Ended up still being okay on field, but not great - he's no longer a guy I visualize as our CB1 in two or three seasons, maybe he stays and plays CB2 or 3, but he's not a top tier guy any more.

[QuikSand]

Special teams review:

Last year, I pushed a ton of good special teamers onto the field (even though our return men themselves were not great) - let's see how that worked out.

Punt Return Avg: 15.5 (3rd best, league average was 9.5)
Punt Return Avg allowed: 7.5 (t4th)
Kickoff Return average: 25.8 (11th, 23.7)
Kickoff Return Ave allowed: 18.9 (1st)

Okay, pretty good. Perhaps a better punter would help us in the return defense?

My primary return men last year was Kent Stapleton - we can improve on that role, too. I don't envision me taking a return man early, unless a great fit guy (like a WR) happens to also have those skills. But, in round two, a DB with standout return skills could be interesting for us, I guess. More likely, we'll just target somebody via free agency. Or, maybe in late free agency - with so many AI teams in this league, there are bound to be some RFAs who go without an extensions, or get cut due to cap trouble.

[QuikSand]

Two twists from the BELCo rundown of combine changes:

-QB Jimmy Mc is atop the list of improved combines
-TE Aurturo Weydahl is on the bad list

I believe these are trailing indicators - it's not that they predict a ratings change ahead, but they confirm a ratings change that presumably already happened. I don't see it, though, in either guy - both look the same, more or less, to the league scout as they did last year. Beats me.

I expect I will try to trade Jimmy Mc this offseason, but I doubt there's any interest. Still planning to go with TedddyTightEnds as my starter for the years ahead. Well, I suppose that's unless we land a QB with our early draft pick.

[QuikSand]

So, looking at the draft... my elation over having a top-5 pick has abated to some degree. If I really want to stick within my chemistry system, then I have a few options, but none truly thrilling. There's a DE who looks good, but not a maxed-out pass rusher. There's a WR who probably goes to AVAILABLE before me anyway, but he's a low-endurance type even if not. There's an OT but he's a 2-3 guy and we have all but settled on that as the leadership lane for our OL, so not a fit there without some work. Top CB would be a major reach there, and nobody else really jumps out. I'll likely either make a serious reach, or possibly trade down from the 1.5 pick.

[QuikSand]

...what sucks here is the OT is listed as "sociable." In older versions of FOF, I could interview him and come away with a sense of his leadership and personality. If that guy is actually a 95/95, then he'd be a GREAT FIT pick for us. But if he's a 25/95, then he's close to worthless for chemistry. When the developer semi-gutted chemistry in the game, this is one thing he took out. So, I'm stuck, and will likely just skip him.

[QuikSand]

WR is going to be an adventure for this team. Assuming I do not land a build-around guy at 1.5 (likely), then where are we at that position right now?

WR Victor Lester is our defacto WR1, but he's really better suited to being the 2nd option. Limited GD, more of a big play guy. I got 7 ypt from him last year, a tiny bit better with Teddy in there, but I don't think he's ever going to be a 1,400 yard target hog.

Gene Lyons (8th yr) and Don O'Neill (10th) were the next two guys with targets last year - neither one ought to be around much longer. Both are free agents, and I'm not looking to keep them really involved. Meaning - I need to act kinda quickly at the position, right?

Fernando Vecchio wants to get paid off a "starter" season, we'll keep him around and hopefully long term - but he's a WR4/ST type of guy, not a serious factor in the main passing game. Similarly, Corwin Smith is here and cheap and an 89 chem fit, but he's a down-the-bench guy.

That leaves me with a conundrum with Bernie Richmond. I dislike his bar profile, no real standout skills, everything is meh. Last season he got 90 targets for 691-4... another meh. And now he thinks he's a $12-15m guy. I hate dumping that kind of cap space into a player I don't like, but unless we land a long term asset in this draft (meaning an early pick) I don't see how we have much choice in the matter. I don't want new faces in important roles three seasons from now, I want guys who know the drill here (aka cohesion).

[QuikSand]

...also, chemistry woes atop the WR/TE group. Right now, TE Teddy Carr is currently our leader - he's a 4/5 guy with 70/85...really not ideal. If he remains the leader, that neuters the fit with WRs Lester and Vecchio, but he would still click with the others in my plans: TEs Weydahl and Austin, and WRs Smith and Richmond. Not ideal, but it's looking hard to work around it. I'd prefer a top-shelf 2/3 group leader, but there just are not many such guys around.

[QuikSand]

My 1.5 pick is on the clock. The top two WRs are gone. My top "good fit" options appear to be the next WR out there (bit of a reach I think), a good DE who's a more conventional 3-4 DE than I really like, and I guess a cover corner down the big board some ways. If I sit tight I likely just bite the bullet and take the receiver.

[QuikSand]

Okay, we swing a deal. Inside the division, which I don't love, but anyway...

BAL sends 1.5

CIN sends
1.20
next year's CIN 1st
CB Douglas

So, we drop down in the 1st round this year. I expect that will drop my top choices off my list, naturally - a CB seems like a possibility now.

The CB we get from Cinti, no surprise, is going to be a keystone guy for my chemistry system - he's an 11-12 guy with 95 Leadership and 73 personality. I'd prefer more in the personality department, but given the difficulty I had finding anyone to take over, I'm glad to bring him aboard. He will want a fat extension, but he'll be a build-around player. Maybe a SS for us (near max in Run D and zone), not sure yet.

[QuikSand]

Cinti gets a new franchise QB out of the deal, which is tough to turn down for them. Guy looks good - I don't know why 3 AI teams passed on him, but that played into me deciding to not even look closely.

[QuikSand]

The file is delayed today... and my fingernails are in danger. I'm more anxious than usual to see if we landed our top FA quarry. Details TBA.

[QuikSand]

So, I'll take a look at our DB group now - because our chemistry woes have now been abated with the trade for CB Douglas. That ought to lock him up as our long term group leader (95 leadership) for the foreseeable future.

The new question that poses is - can he overtake CB Everett, rendering him neutral and potentially keep-able? I had been assuming that Everett had to go because his leadership (7th/76Ldr) was going to be too much for my presumed long-term leader (SS Thomas, 3rd/82Ldr) to ever eclipse. I wish I knew exactly when Everett would yield to Douglas - my guess is it will be in two more years (6/95 > 8+/75) but I could be off by a year either way. That means I would probably need to make a re-signing decision first, and only then hopefully see Everett drop out of the picture.

Here's what kinda sucks with no cap constraints... there's really no market for a guy like Everett. I paid him like a monster, I'd be eating $60m in signing bonus, he remains a very solid CB1, and a receiving team would get him at only $18m (market value maybe $30-40m?) but since most teams have plenty of cap space, who cares?

Anyway, with Douglas as the leader, I'll lay out the plan from here:

Group Ldr/Prs Exp Role  Name                  Notes
8/9    33/57   7  CB2/3 Sammie Metzenbaum     could play safety too
8/9    72/99   3  CB4   Gregory Baskerville   big bump, ST
8/9    21/98   4  CB3-5 Tony Rumans           big zone, good dime guy
8/9    62/55   6  CB3-5 Diego Wordehoff       big zone. ST
11/12   6/10   3  CB4-6 Nicholas Barlow       release... no longer a fit for our leader
8/9   100/98   2  CB2-4 Richie Keeler         big statics, please boom
8/9    31/68   5  S2/3  Malcolm Crane         mediocre balanced... bubble guy as FA now
8/9    36/88   3  S2/3  Levi McGee            maybe SS rotation
7/8    82/97   3  Bench Thomas Thomas         some run/zone, weak
8/9     3/35   2  SS2   Cole Thomas           Run D, bump, Int
11/12  95/73   4  SS1  Riley Douglas          Rotation SS, chemistry leader

This puts S Thomas Thomas onto the bench, likely forever. Hey, in a zero injury league, somebody has to ride the pine. Might as well be a dude with his starts in hand, no skills top merit a real contract, and a 97 personality... right?

On the other hand, CB Barlow will be the odd man out. Kinda weird skills anyhow (90+ man but weak in other coverages? what do I do with a guy like that?) and very weak in chemistry anyhow... he'll be a fairly easy goodbye.

[QuikSand]

Okay, FA stage has run. We got our guy.

I didn't know how much to bid on a guy I had to have. Here he is: LB Jermaine Tanner. He's our dream date.

First... we're kinda thin at LB. Here's a firmer 1st round pick, not a stud at tackling, but great in coverage., and in case "play diagnosis" means something vaguely football-ish, then he's great in that too. I like it.

Second... he's a special teams ace. Like a 100. Since I am actively trying to build up that aspect of the team, I targeted him for that, too. Great.

Third... he's a max endurance guy, and I am increasingly persuaded that means a lot. So, he can line up on pretty much every play for us, I like that, too, as it takes pressure off some of my lower-skill special teams guys in the LB group - they won't have to play as much real D.

And fourth... chemistry, duh. Check this dude out. He's in the 7-8 group, which is what I currently build my D7 around. Rated 88 in Leadership, so once be becomes our leader, he'll likely stick. And he's a 98 personality - a chemistry demigod, basically.

Most important possible signing for our chemistry, and for our entire team goals, basically. I don't have to spend an early draft pick at LB any time soon, we now have a rotation I can live with for years to come.

How much is this dude worth to us? Beats me. I figured the league would pay $30-something. I ponied up $52m/yr, way overpaying, but I couldn't leave it to chance. Too important.

edit to add: he's already capable of being our group leader, so I have flexibility with my old DE McCleon - he's out current leader, but in his 10th season is fading. Only $6m in base salary, but he'll be a bubble guy, likely.

[QuikSand]

Another free agent signing... into the "we'll see" category. WR Moe Bernal

So, he's not a chem leader... but he'd be an uber-follower if we ended up arranging to have a 2-3 group leader. The J-E-T-S-JetsJetsJets didn't even use him, after spending a 3rd round pick on him, so he's an unknown producer. My experience is that WRs with really low "Route Running" tend to get lost, even if you try to fold them in. In the real NFL, I kinda like a guy with 90 Big Play Receiving and 4.43 speed (well, the equivalent skills) to line up outside and "keep the defense honest." I have no idea if that means anything at all in FOF 8, to be candid.

So... what do we do with this clown? I don't know. 5th year guy, could be around a while. This year he could line up as a pure split end and do that "honest" thing all day, I guess. If he's not a chem fit (i.e. if we just decide to settle for TE Barr as our leader, in the 4-5 group) then he won't contribute there at all.

Fortunately, his contract is team-friendly... he's all salary, min bonus. So, he's genuinely in the "we'll see" column. Given the state of affairs for us at WR, it's good to have an option. Now we do.

[QuikSand]

Okay, we're a few picks away from our first selection in the draft at 1.20. In theory, I want to be targeting need positions at this point, as I am trying to finalize "the team" we want to use for the five year plan idea.

My honest assessment of needs for the medium term is:

WR1
EDGE1
LT
CB1
WR3
EDGE2
RBserious
PRstud
KRstud

As I sit looking at the draft, I think there's a good fit CB1 available. And the best WR available looks to me like he's a low-end WR1, but more likely a WR2/3 guy. So, if both remain available, that will be a conundrum. If I keep turning away from the "best receiver available" I'll end up with a team of nobodies in our WR corps, and that just won't work for being a dominant team.

[QuikSand]

More news, as our phone lines are burning up...

IND sends pick 1.1 from this draft (used to select WR Brad Franz)

BAL sends pick 1.26 and 2110 BAL 1st


Indianapolis took my top WR with the first pick, then the owner showed up and confessed it was a mis-click while he was populating the conscriptor. I dropped hi a line, and we worked out this deal. So, we should have a legit WR from this draft class after all... now to decide whether to reinforce at WR or attend to other needs with the pick at 1.20, coming soon.

[QuikSand]

WR Brad Franz

Here's the WR in the draft thread... not your typical #1 overall wideout, but if those bars hold he should be "good enough" and right now that's what my team really needs. If he ends up nearly maxed out in RR, BPR, and AvoidDrops... great.

[QuikSand]

And our top pick - I play it "safe" and go with the need position. We take a "Small" cover man, hoping he can step in as a CB1 in mostly bump coverage.

http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showt...ll=1#post54970

My scout maxes him out in both bump and play diagnosis. Upside is he's a single-coverage guy either against WR1 or WR2.

The WR I was looking at might not be a chem fit after all - my leadership plan at the WR/TE group remains pretty fluid (not certain whether the leader will be a 2-3 or a 4-5 guy). So, I backed off - but also making the deal for Franz let me back off there a bit.

[QuikSand]

And so, the "team need" list now looks like this, after two draft picks acquired:

EDGE1
LT
CB1
WR3
EDGE2
Cfuture
RBserious
PRstud
KRstud

[QuikSand]

Okay, with our final pick in this draft, we target a limited-skills DE whom my scouts graded as "underrated."

http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showt...ll=1#post54997

Being realistic, this might at best target my EDGE2 (3?) role from my list of needs... the chances that this guy becomes a main threat for us seem slim. I passed over a reach receiver who looked like a good fit in the slot for us - but I feel like that role is pretty easy to fill in other ways.

[QuikSand]

Okay, draft is effectively over. I'm still pursuing some guys in free agency, probably have another half dozed impactful signings and re-signings. But we mostly know where we are with this roster now. Let's have a look at what we think this roster will look like this year, and during the presumed PEAK years.

Helpful link: Roster needs

ROLE   2109 Starter        2112+ Plan
QB1    Teddy Farrell       TeddyTightEnds4Lyfe
QB2    JimmyMc             Richie Bryant (100 Pers)

RB1    Roger Harden        ?
RB2    DeShawn Lindsey     Lindsay?
RB3                        Return man or ST stud?
FB     Erric Stai          J Lusignan (Pers 86, ST 98)
Gimp   Dewalters 4/5,93    Dewalters 4/5,93    

TE1    A Weydahl           A Weydahl           
TE2    T Carr              T Carr
TE3    C Austin            Austin?

FL     V Lester            B Franz(?)
SE     B Franz             V Lester
SLOT   ?                   ?
WR4    M Bernal?           M Bernal?
WR5    F Vecchio           F Vecchio?
Gimp   C Smith             C Smith

C      E Castillo          Castillo?
LG     D Foreman           D Foreman
RG     D Darby             D Darby?
G      Turnbull?           Turnbull?
LT     J Dotson            ?
RT     A Curry?            ?
Gimp   Aydelotte           Aydelotte?
DE1    R Tuholski          ?
DE2    A McCormick         A McCormick?
DE3    A Humphrey          A Humphrey?
NT1    R Calhoun           R Calhoun
NT2    M Prescott          M Prescott
DL     P Neill             P Neill?
Gimp   T Baither           T Baither

ILB1   J Tanner            J Tanner 7/8,98
ILB2   T Brotzman          T Brotzman?
ILB3   A Rossini           A Rossini
ILB4   J Dandron ?         J Dandron ?
SLB    R Randolph          R Randolph
WLB    J James             J James ?
OLB3   ?                   ?

CB1    Everett             D Small ?
CB2    Metzenbaum ?        Baskerville ?
NB     D Wordehoff         D Wordehoff               
DB     Baskerville         Rumans
CB5    Rumans              ?
SS1    R Douglas           R Douglas 11/12,73
SS2    C Austin            C Austin
FS1    L McGee             L McGee?

KR     K Stapleton?        ?
PR     K Stapleton?        ?

That's a handy visual (for you, but also for me) on my thinking right now. Every question mark with no player is a fairly wide-open competition, every player with a question mark is written in pencil as we try to lock in for cohesion. We do have three early draft picks in the next two drafts, so presumably we can target some of those slots with those picks.

I have had luck in the past finding one or two undrafted rookies who make the team, and I'm open to that here, too. This is probably the last season I'll be semi-open to getting young players some playing time to make chemistry click... meaning it will be harder to get am end-of-bench job, on defense especially, after this year.

[QuikSand]

Well, in FA 6-7, we have some disappointment - but at least that settles a short term question. I had been the only team pursuing a free agent lineman who could have stepped in as our new chemistry leader from the 4/5 group. That uncertainty kept me from drafting a 4/5 lineman in this draft (whom I liked more than the DE we took at 2.6)... so it goes. So, we will remain on track ot build around our 2-3 group leader there (LT Joey Dotson). He will likely be our first guy where we are totally duty bound to massively overpay for chem/coh benefits. (I need a single shorthand word for "chemistry and cohesion" here) He's obviously not much of a player, but FOF factors "starting experience" into its formula for contract demands, so he will want to get paid. I really don't have another good option, and I don't want to risk angering him - I really cannot afford to have to cut an angry keystone player. So, he'll probably get a fat contract after this season - like $7m/yr or so, what he's demanding now, despite his skills being more of a minsal caliber. Can we start him long term at left tackle? I don't see any way I am doing that when I want this team to be "peaking" so the pressure is really on to come up with a plan at OT. RT Amos Curry is a better player, and (I think) good enough to actually play, but he'd take over the group leadership and I don't want that (he's a 6/7 guy, would be neutral with many of our key guys).

I also missed out on a quality, but not superstar, DT talent. I saw a guy I could rotate into both DT/DE slots, and would have been a good personality fit. Ben's Atlanta team got him... same guy was in free agency last year and we got outbid by an AVAILABLE team who paid a 3yr fat bonus offer and then cut him, naturally. Anyway... I miss out, not a crisis. 5th year guy, would have been a good fit, but I'm going to need my cap space for dumb extensions in time.

Not much left to watch, really. I'm still after some role players, but no major drama left. That OL leader and DT were the last two really consequential guys I was targeting.

[QuikSand]

Roster update:

49 players signed
01 RFAs expected to re-sign (c'mon Tyronne, nobody else wants your ass)
11 FAs where we're the current top bidder
03 draft picks coming aboard
---
64 players heading into late free agency

I honestly thought this was going to be a year of roster moderation... but here I am again, likely toeing the 7--player line for camp again. I did pick up some fringe guys here and there. I also have players like DE Owen McCleon sitting on the wrong side of a mental "bubble" already. So, it won't be a total crisis to cut down... we'll keep the 2112 vision in mind.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Quick note - as I set up the active roster for this year, I think I'll create another metric to watch.

STIndex =
(Mean of ST ratings for active players encouraged to play ST +
Median of ST ratings for active players encouraged to play ST +
Lowest ST rating among active players encouraged to play ST)
/3

For us, this year, I'm encouraging 13 active players, with these ratings:

98 77 76
88 87 72
92 88 88 83
96 94 89

So, the mean is 86.8, the median is 88, the lowest is 72. STIndex = 82.3

I will keep an eye on this going forward for this team, and will also check after the regular season to see who actually got put in to play special teams. Even in a zero-injury league, I don't know whether 13 guys will play equal shares, or whether the team will dip into the not-encouraged gang. In theory we only need 9-11 players per play - I'd be pleased if, in this league, only 13 guys actually got used. I don't expect that, because, you know, reasons.

Ok, getting back to this. I deliberately had only 13 active players set to "encouraged" to play special teams. In a zero-injury league, that seems like it would be "enough." However, maybe the team pushes some OL into the role on kicks/punts, that sort of thing. Might be somewhat beyond our control.

Let's see who actually played: Link, assuming uploaded image fails as usual



Okay... an uneven distribution. Sorted by ST plays, I'll recite the current ST ratings for the players in that order:

88 75 96 92 77 88 87 81 94 92 18(returner) 98 88 83 snapper OL punter OL OL kicker 78 24

Okay, that took a pretty long time until we got into the true "rando" territory. LB Brotzman seemed like the "next man up" for some reason. If our regulars logged 200-300 ST snaps, Brotzman got around 30. I'll declare victory there - not bad at all. (I kinda wanna check to see if LB Armstrong and his 75 ST rating was "encouraged" - he got a few snaps but fewer than Brotzman, that seems wrong... but again, on the margin overall)

So... if the game is going to force my guards to play special teams, maybe we don't even need to go 13 players deep as "encouraged" there? When kicking, we have a K/P, a snapper, and it looks like 1-2 guards... so only 7-8 guys needed. When returning, we need 10. Hmmmm. Could we get by with only 10 guys designated to play special teams, trying to replace those 77s with 94s?

[QuikSand]

So, if you're going "all out" on special teams, is there a tiny angle to position-switching a couple of high-ST tight ends to slot as guard, remain active, and hopefully be the guys called on to do punt/kick plays? (I'm assuming that the game does some sort of "cloud" rating-measurement as a way to modify the play outcomes... could you hide some special teamers as guards for that purpose?)

Good god, do I/we need a new game.

[QuikSand]

FA 8-9 is active in volume, but low in excitement.

SE Collin Nelson
FA Stage 8
signed as an unrestricted free agent from Green Bay: 2yrs, $7,100,000.
K Austin Cortez
FA Stage 8
re-signed as an unrestricted free agent
P Arturo Dunn
FA Stage 8
signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $6,710,000.
SE Don O'Neill
FA Stage 9
re-signed as an unrestricted free agent
WILB Silas Cobb
FA Stage 9
turned down a contract offer: 2yrs, $7,100,000.
LT Ty Atkins
FA Stage 9
signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $7,100,000.
SLB Tyler Dirnabauer
FA Stage 9
turned down a contract offer: 3yrs, $66,000,000.
RG Rufus Stephens
FA Stage 9
signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $5,200,000.

A lot of minsal fill-ins here, most won't make it to preseason, I reckon. WR O'Neill isn't our long term answer as WR leader, but I wish I had a 2/3 guy to west the lead away from him and we could keep him around - he's a KR and ST guy, pretty solid at both, and this would be year 4 with us. Alas, he's a patch-over option for us, at the moment.

T Atkins is a high-personality guy, but a 5th year player- hard to imagine giving him a year of starts given the late start. G Stephens is a 2nd year guy, has a better case as a long term asset despite only 83 personality.

WR Collin Nelson could be a long term hold. 78 special teams would be an asset on most teams - but probably not this one. He's at best a WR5 sort of guy.

LB Dirnbauer was a roll-the-dice guy... weird LB with a Run D void but near-max PR Tech. Might have been a situational pass rusher. I had a sort of fancy that we'd get 11 sacks from him and trade him off -- alas, someone offered him a legit offer instead of my no-bonus nonsense.

DE Baither will sign on the next stage, I'm done haggling.

[QuikSand]

Wrapping up free agency will be uneventful for us. I'm having a little fun playing around with the draft tool - sorting through undrafted rookies, looking for good fits. So far, I have one guy identified as a possible target - but we'll have a clearer clue after we get to the stage when they are viewable and sortable in-game. (It's so frustrating not having chemistry indicators during the draft)

[QuikSand]

Should we cut Jimmy Mc?

There's an interesting question, honestly. If this were an ordinary league with injuries, then it's not much of a question. He's a guy who can run the offense pretty well, and after his last season he thinks he's a $25m/yr sort of guy. A value, under-market asset we have locked up for two more years.

That said... this is a zero injury league. So, what use is a backup QB? Hard to say. Jimmy Mc is a 4/5 guy, meaning he will have an affinity with two of our leader, but it appears not all three. But if we're gonna talk chemistry, then Richie Bryant is an obviously superior option. Bryant is a 10 personality guy, in the same chem group as TeddyTightEnds, so he will click for life - and will probably never really aspire to be anything more than a backup.

So... if Jimmy isn't going to play anytime soon, what is the point of keeping him around? I trade blocked him, but nobody's going to trade for a 30-rated player, regardless of his production. So, do we keep him around out of sentimentality? I don't know. At some point, we'll get cap pressure trying to re-sign all these marginal players... if Jimmy is still around as a $10m player the pressure will build to dump him. So, why not beat the rush and do it now?

Obvious divergence between real football and a computer game here. Would Jacksonville just release, say, Gardner Minshew? No chance. Not sure who, in the real world, would be a more apt comparison.

[QuikSand]

Another interesting bubble guy: CB Kent Stapleton

What do we do with a guy like this?

The case for keeping him: He's got 96 personality, and this team needs guys to stay around, gain cohesion, and add to chemistry the whole time. I have locked in a chem leader who doesn't have tip-top personality, so to max things out I really want guys like KS with huge personality clicks. In time, with some years of cohesion, he could be useful on the field, because of that big interceptions bar. And he can return punts and kicks in a pinch.

The case for cutting him: In order to make his chemistry useful, he needs starts. We're not in the business of just handing out a half season or more of starts to nobodies - and this guy is a literal void in both bump and zone. He literally cannot cover anyone. Sure, he has return skills...but a 40 rating isn't a ton better than any old bum out there. I am bound to really go after a guy with serious return bars, leaving this guy as a non-special-teams asset with nothing but personality. Easier just to load up with offensive benchwarmers, it's easier to manufacture starts for them.

[QuikSand]

Okay, first look at the rookies.

Solid news: the BELCO ratings put our draft #13 overall, despite being only three guys. That's okay, but with pick 1.1 there it probably ought to be better.

My early look says:

WR Franz - well-developed, BPR 86, RR projects to 90-ish... he'll be another marginal WR1/2 guy... not really a 1.1-worthy talent, and arguably not worth the trade-up, but he's a chem fit and we are going to feed him the ball

CB Small - pretty much what I expected, the CB class was deep, he's a solid starter, likely a future CB1 for us, bump at 73/96 and good across but nothing fully maxed-out

DE Humphrey - okay, basically a good look, he projects into the 70s in the first three bars, with precious little underneath... still hoping he becomes a long term DE3 for us, not thrilling, but he didn't completely disappear

So... okay. We have bodies, if not superstars, at three important need positions. Nothing I see here is making me go back and edit the long term vision for these position groups. Well, I guess Franz and Lester now look like pretty similar players, so for them to be our WR1 and WR2 gets weird-ish. Neither guy is really jacked in getting downfield, which I'd prefer all things considered. We could just keep pumping our tight ends with short stuff, and reserve the WRs for downfield looks.

Okay, then, that's the draft class per se. Now we get to flip through the misfit toys, where most years I find one or two good fits. It will be interesting how many of those guys were ones I located by using the draft tool - that's always been frustrating to me, when I find an undrafted rookie I like a lot better than then guys I actually selected in rounds 5-6-7 of that draft.

[QuikSand]

(That's a lot of okays for one post)

[QuikSand]

Whoa boy. An unpleasant surprise as I look at the chemistry profiles of my rookies. Lessee here...

WR Franz Leadership 13, Personality 18

DE Alec Humphrey 52, 2

CB Donnell Small 100, 33

Oh my god, Small is a disaster for us. High leadership, and low personality. he cannot be allowed to become our leader, so that effectively caps his time with us. Dammit. The others are so low in personality, they'll be of limited use for chemistry purposes. That much we saw coming, more or less, but... dammit.