WW LXVII -- The Return of Divination Nation! (GAME OVER STUDENTS WIN!!!)

[Dr. Sak]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

What worries me about this is that I have a hunch that the N0 scans were all intended to come up both good and true, so as a result, we weren't able to scan any wolves. The list of people who weren't scanned N0 are:

The only way they are all true is if the people telling us who they scanned told the truth. There is no guarantee for that.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

why is there no point? Im confident you arent a wolf....

there is no point because at the end of the day people need a reason to vote.

3 wolf scans vs. 1 villager scan is a pretty good reason.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

What worries me about this is that I have a hunch that the N0 scans were all intended to come up both good and true, so as a result, we weren't able to scan any wolves. The list of people who weren't scanned N0 are:

Barkeep49
RendeR
mauboy1
ntndeacon
oliegirl
st.cronin
The Jackal
SnDvls

I see what yer saying here pass, but I'm not sure path would create a scenario wher we only had to look at 1/4 of the total players. If what you're suggesting is true and he never night scanned a wolf on purpose, then the village would have an INSANE advantage of only having to worry about this small group. I just don't see that happening.

Its a lot easier to believe that the night 0 scans were as random as anything else and they just turned up that way, good scans and bad scans all returned a villager result.

Am I making sense there? I tend to ramble.

[Dr. Sak]

Originally Posted by Lathum

there is no point because at the end of the day people need a reason to vote.

3 wolf scans vs. 1 villager scan is a pretty good reason.

Since Chief isn't around let me ask you this one...on N0 he scanned you and it came up villager...then in N1 he scanned you again and you came up wolf?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Lathum

no way.

I know it's unlikely, because it points far too well to all the wolves, but maybe path didn't think anyone would think about it, and if they did, that the first reaction would be not to believe it, so it's okay?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by bsak16

Since Chief isn't around let me ask you this one...on N0 he scanned you and it came up villager...then in N1 he scanned you again and you came up wolf?

That's what my records say he's done.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Lathum

there is no point because at the end of the day people need a reason to vote.

3 wolf scans vs. 1 villager scan is a pretty good reason.

It's 3 to 2 from N1 scans, 3 to 3 if you count N0.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Lathum

there is no point because at the end of the day people need a reason to vote.

3 wolf scans vs. 1 villager scan is a pretty good reason.

But not knowing which of the seers quality-wise did those scans, we can't know if you for example had 4 people with really good or really shitty abilities. If they were all pretty bad at it, that could easily account for the 3 bad scans. Not knowing our own ability levels throws every scan into doubt.

it could just as easily be 3 good scanners vs one bad one for you too, but we just don't know.

[RendeR]

Ok, I'm out till sometime after 2pm. got stuffs to do!

[Passacaglia]

It looks like cronin is 1-0 so far. What do you guys think of letting him set up groups for N2 scans?

[Passacaglia]

Or maybe Lathum could do it -- if he's going to be voted off anyway, we'll know whether or not the arrangement was done by someone on our side, or someone trying to trick us.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Or maybe Lathum could do it -- if he's going to be voted off anyway, we'll know whether or not the arrangement was done by someone on our side, or someone trying to trick us.

I would be more then willing to do that.

[Lathum]

OK, in response to what some people have said.

Alot of people have discounted night 0 scans since they all came back villager.

I don't want to be lynched, but at the end of the day who is going to emerge as a better candidate.

My vote goes to Dodgerchick. I have to finish writting a paper but I'll illustrate why later.

[Pumpy Tudors]

I want to vote nfg22, but I'm not doing it just yet. I'll see if any more information comes out as the morning progresses.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Pumpy Tudors

I want to vote nfg22, but I'm not doing it just yet. I'll see if any more information comes out as the morning progresses.

I would be willing to go with that.

I think if nfg is a wolf DC is as well.

[Lathum]

dola- I think it is wise to hold of for now though

[claphamsa]

Im not sold on NFG22 he seems like a n00b who is just playing poorly.... but thats just me. someone has to go....

[Pumpy Tudors]

I trust my scan that nfg22 is a wolf, but maybe more info will come out.

[Passacaglia]

We're still waiting to hear scans from oliegirl, st.cronin, MikeVic, and SnDvls.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

We're still waiting to hear scans from oliegirl, st.cronin, MikeVic, and SnDvls.

there has to be more then that out there still

[Passacaglia]

Pumpy, I know you're not comfortable giving out your N0 scan because you didn't choose it, but that hasn't stopped everyone else. The more info we've got, the better off we'll be. Just like I said yesterday, I'll unvote you if you pony up the info.

VOTE PUMPY TUDORS

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Lathum

there has to be more then that out there still

Fine, don't believe me.

Maybe you were adding on N0 scans? We're still waiting on The Heinz and Pumpy for those.

[Passacaglia]

But anyway, to prove myself:

Name Night 1
1. claphamsa Lathum
2. Lathum Dodgerchick
3. Barkeep49 Lathum
4. RendeR Lathum
5. Chief Rum Lathum
6. mauboy1 X
7. jeheinz72 X
8. Passacaglia RendeR
9. Dodgerchick Barkeep49
10. ntndeacon Lathum
11. nfg22 claphamsa
12. oliegirl
13. saldana Barkeep49
14. st.cronin
15. The Jackal Barkeep49
16. MikeVic
17. SnDvls
18. Pumpy Tudors nfg22
19. Bsak16 Chief Rum
20. Greyroofoo X
21. Mr. Wednesday Passacaglia

[Lathum]

I forgot about MAu and Jheinze.

[jeheinz72]

Finally, The Heinz has arrived.

My bad folks, I have no legit excuse other than A) I only post from work and B) I totally didn't put two-and-two together that the game was starting on a day I wouldn't be at work.

Totally my bad, and I wouldn't blame you for lynching me, especially when you read this part, which I understand looks horribly wolf-cheesy, but is nonetheless the truth.

My N0 scan was of GreyRooFoo was a student.

I know, I know, lame, but like I said, that's the name path gave me, that's all I can say. Obviously no night 1 scan for me.

In reading this 12-page missive I'd say I'm not inclined to pile on Lathum. If I'm reading it right, he's been scanned 6 times and is 3 and 3, yes? Isn't that about the expected value of our seer-ness?

I'm going to think on this game a bit, and see if I can devise a theory. Anyone have post numbers of scanners/scan results for N0?

[Passacaglia]

Name Night 0
1. claphamsa Pumpy Tudors
2. Lathum claphamsa
3. Barkeep49 Mr. Wednesday
4. RendeR bsak16
5. Chief Rum Lathum
6. mauboy1 nfg22
7. jeheinz72 greyroofoo
8. Passacaglia Pumpy Tudors
9. Dodgerchick MikeVic
10. ntndeacon Pumpy Tudors
11. nfg22 saldana
12. oliegirl claphamsa
13. saldana jeheinz72
14. st.cronin greyroofoo
15. The Jackal MikeVic
16. MikeVic greyroofoo
17. SnDvls Chief Rum
18. Pumpy Tudors
19. Bsak16 saldana
20. Greyroofoo Dodgerchick
21. Mr. Wednesday Passacaglia

All results were villager.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Fine, my N0 scan said that Lathum is student.

[SnDvls]

I followed Grey's plan as I has stated and scanned Barkeep...he came up student for me

[Barkeep49]

Lathum if you come around: I understand that you know your own role. However, at what point does it become instructive to kill you just to learn the accuracy, or innaccuracy, of the multiple scans? As I count it we have 5 scans from Night 1 on you? If so that starts to give the 5 of us insight into how accurate are scans are, or aren't. If we were looking at 4/1 or 5/0 villager/wolf, I'd be less inclined to think that. But with 3 people coming up wolf on you, I think we're looking at a situation where we can start to differentiate the voices we should be listening to and trusting, and the ones that we should give less weight to, or give credence to because we know they're inaccurate.

Vote Lathum

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Pumpy Tudors

Fine, my N0 scan said that Lathum is student.

I gotta be honest Pumpy, considering we were discussing trying to coordinate scans of people who were involved in multiple scans of one person that makes you look pretty bad.

[Passacaglia]

UNVOTE PUMPY TUDORS

[The Jackal]

Hm. Do we think one of the wolves would lie about a scan this early in the game to try to get someone lynched? One of the wolf results on Lathum could've been engineered by a lying wolf trying to make an early play and stay under the radar.

Who turned him up as a wolf?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Lathum if you come around: I understand that you know your own role. However, at what point does it become instructive to kill you just to learn the accuracy, or innaccuracy, of the multiple scans? As I count it we have 5 scans from Night 1 on you? If so that starts to give the 5 of us insight into how accurate are scans are, or aren't. If we were looking at 4/1 or 5/0 villager/wolf, I'd be less inclined to think that. But with 3 people coming up wolf on you, I think we're looking at a situation where we can start to differentiate the voices we should be listening to and trusting, and the ones that we should give less weight to, or give credence to because we know they're inaccurate.

Vote Lathum

On the flip side, BK, you've got 4 scans on you, all good. Don't the odds of you being good, and all 4 of your scans coming up good, worry you?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

It looks like cronin is 1-0 so far. What do you guys think of letting him set up groups for N2 scans?

To amend this, I didn't see MikeVic had scanned grey also. Adding in The Heinz makes three people who scanned him N0.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I gotta be honest Pumpy, considering we were discussing trying to coordinate scans of people who were involved in multiple scans of one person that makes you look pretty bad.

ONLY A WOLF WOULD SAY THAT!!!

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Hm. Do we think one of the wolves would lie about a scan this early in the game to try to get someone lynched? One of the wolf results on Lathum could've been engineered by a lying wolf trying to make an early play and stay under the radar.

Who turned him up as a wolf?

RendeR, Chief Rum, and ntndeacon. Oddly enough, only one of them (CR) was supposed to scan Lathum, according to grey's plan.

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I see Lathum, Dodgerchick, ntndeacon, nfg22, Pumpy Tudors, bsak16, and Mr. Wednesday voting not in accordance with grey's plan.

Ehh.. no. I was confused and went with this:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I thought maybe everyone in each group scans other people in the same group as them?

That's why I chose BK, it wasn't until this morning that I realized I should have scanned Lathum.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Lathum if you come around: I understand that you know your own role. However, at what point does it become instructive to kill you just to learn the accuracy, or innaccuracy, of the multiple scans? As I count it we have 5 scans from Night 1 on you? If so that starts to give the 5 of us insight into how accurate are scans are, or aren't. If we were looking at 4/1 or 5/0 villager/wolf, I'd be less inclined to think that. But with 3 people coming up wolf on you, I think we're looking at a situation where we can start to differentiate the voices we should be listening to and trusting, and the ones that we should give less weight to, or give credence to because we know they're inaccurate.

Vote Lathum

The problem I have with this BK, is that we're at our logical expected value of what should happen with the scans. We have 6 scans on him, 3 for a wolf, 3 for a villegar ( ). If we expect to have, on average, a 50% or near 50% hit rate, then we won't actually learn anything.

Let's say we scan Lathum and he ends up being a wolf.

While it would obviously be good (that we got a wolf), I'd find it hard to say any of his scanners actually learned anything.

I mean it just happened that the cookie crumbled in a different way for some than it did for others.

Personally, today my vote will be more about gameplay than scanning records, I just can't help but see that too much fault lies in those for now.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

Ehh.. no. I was confused and went with this:



That's why I chose BK, it wasn't until this morning that I realized I should have scanned Lathum.

Hey, just because you were misled by me doesn't mean that you did vote according to his plan! It's one thing to say you were confused, but that doesn't make me wrong.

[claphamsa]

Didnt anyone scan me? Cuz im good and all....

[Pumpy Tudors]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

Didnt anyone scan me? Cuz im good and all....

Of course you are. We don't need to scan you.

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Hey, just because you were misled by me doesn't mean that you did vote according to his plan! It's one thing to say you were confused, but that doesn't make me wrong.

No, I wasn't saying you were wrong, I misunderstood.

In any event, we should probably wait to see who everyone else scanned but it is fishy that Lathum got half wolf votes and BK all good.

Also, we definitely need to get some sort of scanning gameplan early so we're not scrambling at the last minute.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

Yes, many times unfortunately. I'm easily swayed and run all kinds of conspiracy theories in my head when there's a hint that someone *might* be telling the truth.

Well, there's one vote out there so I might as well throw one as well

Vote jeheinz72

Random, Day 1, etc.

10:23, DC casts a very early vote. Suspicios move IMO since there is still a ton of information yet to be revealed out there.

Originally Posted by Pumpy Tudors

Vote jeheinz72

10:39- Pumpy jumps on board

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

And no lynch because.... ? I was under the impression that a lynch was good regardless of who we get rid of. No lynching Day 1 is like giving the wolves a free shot. IMO, shooting in the dark and failing is better than not shooting at all.

DC argues for a day one lynch when clearly it is a poor move considering this ruleset.

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

Seriously, isn't *every* WW game that way? Day 2 is usually as much of a crapshoot as is Day 1.

Calls day 2 a crapshoot when again, it is obvious there is far more information out there this game then usual.

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

I never feel comfortable giving out too much information, but I will say that I'll scan someone from this list.

I'll probably be gone for the remainder of the day, dunno for sure. My vote remains with heinz.

stays with heinze, pretty easy move to vote for the guy we know won't be here.

Originally Posted by nfg22

Im down with that last plan...even though I wil most lkely be on the list.

This is where I point out what I feel is a slip of the tounge fron nfg22

Originally Posted by Lathum

why wouldn't you want to be on the list?

I call him out on it

Originally Posted by Lathum

Well that was my point. nfg22's tone came across as being regretfull to be on the list.

It's almost enough to make me want to vote him.

I explain why

Originally Posted by Lathum

I also know this is a little meta-gamey but he refered to you as a seer and not a student.

I don't plan on scanning nfg22 tonight because if he comes up wolf for me it may seem I am out to get him, but I suggest a couple of people scan him.

Another reason why he seems suspiscous. I also was true to my word and didn't scan him. But Pumpy did and he came back a wolf.

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

I didn't read this as he didn't wanna be on the list, I read this as he's doesn't mind being on the list.

DC comes to nfg22's defense. This really pinged me and is the reason I scanned her.

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

You seem to be overanalyzing things I think. "Even though" doesn't necessarily mean it's a negative statement, at least not to me. I think he's saying he doesn't mind being on the list if it means he's gonna get cleared.

So what's the difference between his post and Barkeep's?

I mean aren't we all seers? Some are better than others obviously.

Here DC continues to defend nfg22 and some of his other statements. Again, this is why I scanned her and she came back wolf.

[Lathum]

I think my point about not being able to coordinate scans with this many people is being proven convicingly

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

No, I wasn't saying you were wrong, I misunderstood.

In any event, we should probably wait to see who everyone else scanned but it is fishy that Lathum got half wolf votes and BK all good.

Also, we definitely need to get some sort of scanning gameplan early so we're not scrambling at the last minute.

so you think if it is too good to be true it probably is? At least for this game.

[claphamsa]

HMmm, good analisys. excpet the part about a day one lynch, but we can agree ot diagree onthat one.

so you are calling out DC Pumpy and NFG?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

HMmm, good analisys. excpet the part about a day one lynch, but we can agree ot diagree onthat one.

so you are calling out DC Pumpy and NFG?

I think it far more likely DC and nfg are wolves.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Just in case I forget to do this later, I'll throw this out there. If new information pops up, I might change.

VOTE NFG22

[Passacaglia]

I have a couple ideas for my vote, but I'd rather wait until everyone else has revealed their scans, so that my theories don't affect what they say.

[saldana]

FWIW Lathum, I am not ready to vote for you on a 50/50 split...i am much more inclined to go with you on DC with one wolf scan and your gut read on her