Werewolf LXXI - Doomsday (GAME OVER. WOLVES WIN!)

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by ImTheCrew

im off till 7 am tommorow morning im sticking with Lathum as of right now

VOTE LATHUM

ok, this is really getting annoying

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Sonic Youth

The same can be said about Render(387) and Jakal(396). How is that different from what you said about Pas and mine? It's much too circumstancial at this time.

Maybe I am missing something but haw can the same be said for Render and JAckyl?

They voted for PAss, you voted for Clap. My point on you is that if you are a wolf there is a good chance in my mind PAss may be a wolf and your vote on Clap was to save him

I have to be honest though, ITC's shennanagins are frustrating me. 3 hit and run votes and not one comment on being scanned by NTN

[Sonic Youth]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

Why ITC? it was because I knew nothing about him. and I know the effectiveness of staying out of the spotlight. I really figured our seer would view at least one of those.

I've a question for you, are you suggesting for the seer to come out? It just runs against what you've been saying about a scan hitting on such a player and not saying. How would the seer be able to come out and say if I was clear or not? Reading the rules, it's like your said skill, it can only tell you who is a villager. And then how will you tell if your are told they are a villager if they are a wolf instead?

Notice the seer ability too. They could be the fool. They think they are the seer according to the rules. So ITC could easily be a wolf too.

[Lathum]

Unvote Sonic Youth
Vote ITC

[Sonic Youth]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Maybe I am missing something but haw can the same be said for Render and JAckyl?

They voted for PAss, you voted for Clap. My point on you is that if you are a wolf there is a good chance in my mind PAss may be a wolf and your vote on Clap was to save him

I have to be honest though, ITC's shennanagins are frustrating me. 3 hit and run votes and not one comment on being scanned by NTN

I'm just saying, which was why I included the vote posts in brackets after their name, that Jackal and Render where 9 posts seperate in their votes. You made a comment that Pass and I where, what, 7 posts apart? The only difference was that I voted for someone lynched. It's very likely to happen late on so far with the amount of action there was.

ITC could still easily be a wolf too, especially as NTN's scans on wolves come up as villagers.

[Lathum]

I never said you voted 7 posts apart, that was thejackyl.

I think you need to be looked at closer but ITC has made no contribution and his constant votes on me with no analysis are irritating. Factor in his scan from NTN and his failure to comment on it make it look like he is afraid to say something and get hmself in trouble

[Sonic Youth]

Reading that a bit more, I'd guessing that NTN's scans will tell him if the villager has a villager role. So a pure villager could easily be a wolf. I'm repeating myself, but having thought through that, I'm going to vote that way. I'm uncertain about this, but Lathum also makes a good point too, he hasn't commented on anything in regards to this. I'll see what he says though, but for now:

Vote Inthecrew.

[Lathum]

To further my thoughts on ITC and his lack of commenting on the scan, it's almost like he needs to get advice before he says anything about it.

[Sonic Youth]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I never said you voted 7 posts apart, that was thejackyl.

I think you need to be looked at closer but ITC has made no contribution and his constant votes on me with no analysis are irritating. Factor in his scan from NTN and his failure to comment on it make it look like he is afraid to say something and get hmself in trouble

Ah, my bad then. It was actually McCollins reading back.

[Lathum]

mccollins then, I didn't feel like looking back

[mccollins]

Sorry, I should have thrown that in that I mentioned it.

In the same post I also mention that it looked like SY was just following the run. I don't really think that those last three votes on claphamsa were all wolves. If so, they're not playing very smart!

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by mccollins

Sorry, I should have thrown that in that I mentioned it.

In the same post I also mention that it looked like SY was just following the run. I don't really think that those last three votes on claphamsa were all wolves. If so, they're not playing very smart!

Is see your point, but MY point is that SY chose Clap over Pass for whatever reason and a villager got lynched, that is a potential link between PAss and SY. If SY is a wolf I think an argument can be made that PAss can be a wolf and vice versa.

Thats why my initial vote was with SY, but ITC is pissing me off.

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Is see your point, but MY point is that SY chose Clap over Pass for whatever reason and a villager got lynched, that is a potential link between PAss and SY. If SY is a wolf I think an argument can be made that PAss can be a wolf and vice versa.

Just to let it be known, I have nothing better than this either and thus Pass and SY are highest on my radar (with the assumption that we're trusting ntndeacon for now).

To restate the argument (since I'd be asked anyways), the day 1 argument that Pass would be a good pick still holds and I find it very interesting that the votes piled on Claphamsa instead of Pass after ntn's reveal. In that case, I'd also have to look at PurdueBrad.

[The Jackal]

Is it play we're not used to or hesitant wolf play? Hard to judge, good enough for a vote at the moment.

vote ITC

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by mccollins

Just to let it be known, I have nothing better than this either and thus Pass and SY are highest on my radar (with the assumption that we're trusting ntndeacon for now).

To restate the argument (since I'd be asked anyways), the day 1 argument that Pass would be a good pick still holds and I find it very interesting that the votes piled on Claphamsa instead of Pass after ntn's reveal. In that case, I'd also have to look at PurdueBrad.

Well, I can only explain my vote, but it was purely out of self-defense.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Sonic Youth

The same can be said about Render(387) and Jakal(396). How is that different from what you said about Pas and mine? It's much too circumstancial at this time.

I gave ntndeacon the benefit of the doubt of his saying in post 466 that he was the inquisitive was the reason for my vote change.

The main reason my vote is not the same as yours is that I made it very early on and never changed it due to a lack of being here to do so.

You had a specific choice at the timing of your vote, to go one way or the other. Your choice of vote is what is only in question because of the timing of that choice.

had I voted for Pass late in the day as you did I would expect to be just as suspect as you are now.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by RendeR

The main reason my vote is not the same as yours is that I made it very early on and never changed it due to a lack of being here to do so.

You had a specific choice at the timing of your vote, to go one way or the other. Your choice of vote is what is only in question because of the timing of that choice.

had I voted for Pass late in the day as you did I would expect to be just as suspect as you are now.

SY didn't vote for me Render -- he voted for clap.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Sonic Youth

I've a question for you, are you suggesting for the seer to come out? It just runs against what you've been saying about a scan hitting on such a player and not saying. How would the seer be able to come out and say if I was clear or not? Reading the rules, it's like your said skill, it can only tell you who is a villager. And then how will you tell if your are told they are a villager if they are a wolf instead?

Notice the seer ability too. They could be the fool. They think they are the seer according to the rules. So ITC could easily be a wolf too.

Sorry y'all just got back from the doc. stupid Sinus infection.

I was not saying one way or the other whether the seer needs to come out. I hope the seer has info on two other living folks. I am not sure if I would if I was seer. If I had 2 folks to bring maybe. but I would not do it til right before the deadline .

ITC is either a vanilla villager or a wolf don't know which. He isn't helping himself though with not mentioning my scan of him.

[EagleFan]

Ouch, even with the pain killers for my back that hurt...

Good luck villagers!!!

[Sonic Youth]

Originally Posted by RendeR

The main reason my vote is not the same as yours is that I made it very early on and never changed it due to a lack of being here to do so.

You had a specific choice at the timing of your vote, to go one way or the other. Your choice of vote is what is only in question because of the timing of that choice.

had I voted for Pass late in the day as you did I would expect to be just as suspect as you are now.

I was more commenting on how it was said I was close to Pass when I voted, much like in your case with Jackal. I knew that I'd cope some heat with the late vote. It was annoying as well, as at the time I'd only just got home about 11pm(I was expecting to be home before 8.30pm), then caught up and then decided to change for the previous reasons stated.

[The Jackal]

the one difference there SY is that render and my votes were two hours apart and yours and pass' were 20 minutes apart

[RendeR]

PASS: I was talking about the timing of the votes, not who we were voting for. "If I had voted for Pass the way he voted for clap" would have made clearer sense there.

Jackal explained it well, the timing is really the issue, the closeness of the votes, the lateness of the votes, that is really all that is making them suspicious at this point. Add to that the fact that the votes went on a villager and it makes everyone wonder.

Not sure if I've voted yet, but I'm stubborn and will stick to my guns:

VOTE PASSACAGLIA

[path12]

Originally Posted by Lathum

ITC has made no contribution and his constant votes on me with no analysis are irritating. Factor in his scan from NTN and his failure to comment on it make it look like he is afraid to say something and get hmself in trouble

What's he supposed to say? "Um, I'm good?" I don't know how one defends themself against an announced scan. But I'm still not sure I'm buying ntn anyway.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Thats why my initial vote was with SY, but ITC is pissing me off.

I think you might be letting that get in the way of your reasoning. The only evidence against ITC is that ntn scanned him as a villager, which may or may not be true.

But we could say the same thing about any of us -- "This person may or may not be bad." But hell, that's just a random shot.

[nfg22]

Well today Im looking at SY on his voting record. Pass because he sounds suspicous and ITC because we basically have a 50/50 chance with him.

If I were the seer I would say he should be checking out UTR people. I mean...they are the most dangerous...

[path12]

I don't know. I just read the last two pages and am not sure I even get what you guys are all arguing about.

What I know is this. ntndeacon has been a beneficiary of vote swings both days thus far. He claims a role that seems at best not all that valuable, at worst hard to imagine even being included in a game with just sixteen players.

I will be so irritated if our seer does not check him out tonight, but I'm voting him anyway.

VOTE NTNDEACON

It seems at least a stronger case than the one on ITC. But that's just my opinion, the percentage of WW accuracy has got to be around the Mendoza Line....

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by path12

I think you might be letting that get in the way of your reasoning. The only evidence against ITC is that ntn scanned him as a villager, which may or may not be true.

not true.

the other evidence I have against him is I know I am good so that increases his likelyhood of being bad

[path12]

Originally Posted by Lathum

not true.

the other evidence I have against him is I know I am good so that increases his likelyhood of being bad

Yeah, but PurdueBrad thought Barkeep was bad and he was his friggin' lover.

[The Jackal]

well played path, well played

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by path12

I don't know. I just read the last two pages and am not sure I even get what you guys are all arguing about.

What I know is this. ntndeacon has been a beneficiary of vote swings both days thus far. He claims a role that seems at best not all that valuable, at worst hard to imagine even being included in a game with just sixteen players.

I will be so irritated if our seer does not check him out tonight, but I'm voting him anyway.

VOTE NTNDEACON

It seems at least a stronger case than the one on ITC. But that's just my opinion, the percentage of WW accuracy has got to be around the Mendoza Line....

well this wont help that average path...I am whom Iclaimed. I would be irrated if the seer did look at me tonight. there are others that need to be checked on. (of course this assuming the seer hasn't looked at me already.)

about those vote swings. the first one was the two folks with the most votes getting out of the lead in votes. Sure Isaid iwill scratch your back if you scratch mine. I did not want to go. I will grant that even if I wasn't a roled player I make that deal just about every time.

On the second day Of course there was a role claim involved there .. but that couldn't have had any effect on the change in votes.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by path12

I think you might be letting that get in the way of your reasoning. The only evidence against ITC is that ntn scanned him as a villager, which may or may not be true.

But we could say the same thing about any of us -- "This person may or may not be bad." But hell, that's just a random shot.

it isn't quite random at that point. granted I don't know if ITC is a wolf or not, but I know he doesn't have a role forthe town. if I get a villager reaction from any one of you I look at you much stronger. And I will share that so that the seer can tell which one.

[path12]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

it isn't quite random at that point. granted I don't know if ITC is a wolf or not, but I know he doesn't have a role forthe town. if I get a villager reaction from any one of you I look at you much stronger. And I will share that so that the seer can tell which one.

Well, there's a decent chance you only end up with my vote on you, so time will tell. I would like nothing better than to be convinced you're good. I'm just not yet.

[Neon_Chaos]

Vote Count:

ntndeacon - passacaglia (509), path12 (576)
imthecrew - purduebrad (516), lathum (554), sonic youth (558), thejackal (564)
lathum - imthecrew (548)
passacaglia - render (572)

[ImTheCrew]

the scan really didnt seem to help me.... just put me under more suspicion(for some reason) seer feel free to check me out

if i do get lynched just look who lynched another villager

[Passacaglia]

ITC, are you really not sure why this scan has put you under suspicion, or are you just griping about it?

[ImTheCrew]

i really, dont know why, the way i understand ntn could have reported anyone was a villager, and they too would have been lynched?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by ImTheCrew

i really, dont know why, the way i understand ntn could have reported anyone was a villager, and they too would have been lynched?

Well, the role he claims is a weird one. If the person he scans has a villager role, then he learns their role. If the person is a villager with no role, he's told that person is a plain villager. BUT, if the person he scans is a wolf, he's also told that person is a plain villager. So the theory behind going for you is that, if ntn is to be believed, you're either a plain villager or a wolf. So, first off, you don't have a role that's worth saving, and also, since we know that you don't have a villager role, that makes it more likely you have one of the wolf roles.

Again, this is all if ntndeacon is to be believed. You may be able to help us shed some light on that, but I can understand if you don't want to.

[Passacaglia]

And with that, I'm heading to work.

[mccollins]

Catching up, I need to place a vote, I'm in class..

[ImTheCrew]

ok i understand...

but what can i say

im a villager!

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

1/X of the time, where X is the number of players in a typical game.

I was thinking about this this morning. Another reason this is inaccurate is because the Alpha wolf did not make handpicked selections randomly.

Like RendeR, this is just a 'gut' feel:
Vote Passacaglia

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by path12

I think you might be letting that get in the way of your reasoning.

Lathum, it's fine to vote for ITC if you think that is what's best. But, if you think your vote might be better placed, I'd encourage you to not vote for someone just because they're annoying you.

1 hour to go!

[mccollins]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like only nfg22 and ntndeacon have not voted yet.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by mccollins

Lathum, it's fine to vote for ITC if you think that is what's best. But, if you think your vote might be better placed, I'd encourage you to not vote for someone just because they're annoying you.

1 hour to go!

I think ITC is the most +EV play today. We either get a wolf or lose a vanilla villager.

[ntndeacon]

I haven't voted.

[ntndeacon]

I think a wolf is probably on ITC regardles if he is a wolf or not. If he is a villager, then it would be easy to claim you were misled by my seeing him as a villager. And if he is a wolf it would be a way to garner a bit of favor. So I am going with one voting for ITC.

Vote Sonic Youth

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

I think a wolf is probably on ITC regardles if he is a wolf or not. If he is a villager, then it would be easy to claim you were misled by my seeing him as a villager. And if he is a wolf it would be a way to garner a bit of favor. So I am going with one voting for ITC.

Vote Sonic Youth

Are you just throwing away your vote or do you really expect a run on SY at this point (when there hasn't been a ton of movement at the deadline in this game) ?

Sure, SY has some suspicion, but ...

[mccollins]

Alright, I'm driving from class to work now. I hope to be on again before deadline.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by mccollins

Are you just throwing away your vote or do you really expect a run on SY at this point (when there hasn't been a ton of movement at the deadline in this game) ?

Sure, SY has some suspicion, but ...

no this is not a throw away vote but a vote intended to look towards the next day. I fully expect ITC to be lynched, and if neccesary Iwill take a hand in it. I want us to be thinking beyond this vote though. I want the bodyguard and seer (if we have them) to choose wisely and let's see if we cant catch another wolf after the ITC lynch

[Neon_Chaos]

Vote Count:

ntndeacon - passacaglia (509), path12 (576)
imthecrew - purduebrad (516), lathum (554), sonic youth (558), thejackal (564)
lathum - imthecrew (548)
passacaglia - render (572), mccollins (591)
sonic youth - ntndeacon (596)