Werewolf LXI - Ocean's Eleven (GAME OVER, SEE PAGE 19 FOR RESULT.)

[claphamsa]

Do I get my cut of the 58 Mil? Thats a lot of frozen huricanes.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Oceans does not count towards your win ratio. This no lynch was one of several possible outcomes of the tie. There were half a dozen outcomes possible here, most did not involve a no lynch.

Random?

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

Random?

YEP.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

Do I get my cut of the 58 Mil? Thats a lot of frozen huricanes.

Only if the GM gets a cut too 'cause that would be some pretty damn strong Pina Coladas!

I know, I know, a girly drink but I'm stuck up here in cold Illinois and could use a little umbrella drink and some sun right about now.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

YEP.

nice edit

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Only if the GM gets a cut too 'cause that would be some pretty damn strong Pina Coladas!

I know, I know, a girly drink but I'm stuck up here in cold Illinois and could use a little umbrella drink and some sun right about now.

shoulda come out for margaritas!

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

nice edit

To be honest, the grammatical structure of my sentence was driving me crazy (I'm an English teacher) so I just chopped off all but the first word.

For those that missed it pre-edit, this dynamic in a tie was one of the two least likely for random.org to pick based on percentages.

[Lathum]

OK, these are the players we have left. I am assuming we have 2-3 wolves remaining so we need to make something happen. Now I am assuming we have 2 seers based on the information that we converted the arrogant seer.

I am going to come out now and say I am the bodyguard. The reason I am doing it is 2 fold. At some point I am gonna get lynched or night killed and I don't want my information to go with me.

On night 1 I protected JHeinz and there was no kill that night. Ordinaraly I would find this not a huge deal but the wording in the PM for my night 1 result was different then the results of my next 2 nights, which were identical. I protected Barkeep night 2. My night 3 target will remain a secret

Now according to the rules I can't protect myself but there are items out there. I think it may be a good idea for the seer to reveal there first 3 night targets so we can get a really solid CoT going. I can then protect them tomorrow night and give them another shot at a scan.


Barkeep49
Claphamsa
jeheinz72
RendeR
Telle
SnDvls
Path12
ntndeacon
Anxiety
Lathum

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

To be honest, the grammatical structure of my sentence was driving me crazy (I'm an English teacher) so I just chopped off all but the first word.

For those that missed it pre-edit, this dynamic in a tie was one of the two least likely for random.org to pick based on percentages.

An english teacher who manages to spend all day on a message board? nice gig!@@

[Barkeep49]

I like Lathum's plan. I support his suggestion for a seer reveal.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

An english teacher who manages to spend all day on a message board? nice gig!@@

Yeah, student teacher's are a great thing to have...when they are good.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Lathum

OK, these are the players we have left. I am assuming we have 2-3 wolves remaining so we need to make something happen. Now I am assuming we have 2 seers based on the information that we converted the arrogant seer.

I am going to come out now and say I am the bodyguard. The reason I am doing it is 2 fold. At some point I am gonna get lynched or night killed and I don't want my information to go with me.

On night 1 I protected JHeinz and there was no kill that night. Ordinaraly I would find this not a huge deal but the wording in the PM for my night 1 result was different then the results of my next 2 nights, which were identical. I protected Barkeep night 2. My night 3 target will remain a secret

Now according to the rules I can't protect myself but there are items out there. I think it may be a good idea for the seer to reveal there first 3 night targets so we can get a really solid CoT going. I can then protect them tomorrow night and give them another shot at a scan.


Barkeep49
Claphamsa
jeheinz72
RendeR
Telle
SnDvls
Path12
ntndeacon
Anxiety
Lathum

''why not night 3 protect?

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I like Lathum's plan. I support his suggestion for a seer reveal.

Seriosuly people? AM I the only one who realized this guy is a wolf?

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

Seriosuly people? AM I the only one who realized this guy is a wolf?

dola, the seer should only reveal if they have real info to pas on! like heinz and pass are wolves (im not suggestign this thats why i picked smone dead)

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

''why not night 3 protect?

because I can't protect the same player 2 nights in a row.

[claphamsa]

DOLA DOLA DOLA DOLA DOLA

vote BK

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Lathum

because I can't protect the same player 2 nights in a row.

an excelent reason

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

dola, the seer should only reveal if they have real info to pas on! like heinz and pass are wolves (im not suggestign this thats why i picked smone dead)

well here is the thing.

There are 10 players left. We can assume the seer can clear 3 players ( unless they scanned someone who is dead). That brings us to 7 uncleared players. Factor in the actual seer that makes 6. I make 5 and Clap makes 4 unknowns.

Factor in Render as a maybe cleared that leaves 3 candidates. Which gives us a 66% chance of hitting someone.

[PurdueBrad]

IMPORTANT NOTE:

I apparently used an older model on night one for my PM to Lathum that I did not use night two or three. The wording of that PM is not indicative of any role that any of the three characters may/may not have. There is a dynamic in which things can be learned but it would've been spelled out in a very clear manner. My apologies for this as I didn't notice until reading Lathum's post.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Lathum

well here is the thing.

There are 10 players left. We can assume the seer can clear 3 players ( unless they scanned someone who is dead). That brings us to 7 uncleared players. Factor in the actual seer that makes 6. I make 5 and Clap makes 4 unknowns.

Factor in Render as a maybe cleared that leaves 3 candidates. Which gives us a 66% chance of hitting someone.

you are being a touch optimistic here. Lets suppose the seer has scanned all living players, did the seer become a seer before or after night one's scan? if after then night ones scan is completely random, as they were only an arrogant seer. So in this possible scenario we have a 50% chance of hitting someone.

[Lathum]

I am assuming we started with a seer and had one converted after night 1. I think it's time to get some info out there before someone valuable gets night killed and takes the information with them.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I am assuming we started with a seer and had one converted after night 1. I think it's time to get some info out there before someone valuable gets night killed and takes the information with them.

In this case do we want them both to reveal? I doubt it will clear all of the villigars but will give us an idea of a few more folks.

[Abe Sargent]

Im fine with lathum's plan - I dont see any real issue there.

[path12]

Wow, still alive. I'm fine with that plan also, even more so if I've been already scanned and cleared.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Lathum

well here is the thing.

There are 10 players left. We can assume the seer can clear 3 players ( unless they scanned someone who is dead). That brings us to 7 uncleared players. Factor in the actual seer that makes 6. I make 5 and Clap makes 4 unknowns.

Factor in Render as a maybe cleared that leaves 3 candidates. Which gives us a 66% chance of hitting someone.

Not that I dont belive you, but you havent been cleared in somes eyes, hell render hasnt either!

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

Not that I dont belive you, but you havent been cleared in somes eyes, hell render hasnt either!

well unless somone claims bodyguard I would think I am in pretty good shape.

It's been stated that the bad guys don't know what roles aren't in the game so it would be a pretty unneccesary risk to make this play here as a wolf.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

Not that I dont belive you, but you havent been cleared in somes eyes, hell render hasnt either!

While I don't think Lathum's quite right that we can get down to 3 candidates I do think the seer can greatly help us narrow things down. Not hitting a wolf by day 4 almost always means the good guys have lost the game. We need to retard their progress somewhat and having a firm COT gives us that.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Lathum

It's been stated that the bad guys don't know what roles aren't in the game

Where'd that happen?

[jeheinz72]

Hrm, interesting. Some questions...

- Why protect me on Night One Lathum? Being that I have no role it just seems like an odd move to pick me out of a hat.

- So are we now 2/5th of the way to the Oceans' win-set?

- Are we sure about this seer reveal plan? It seems like we could be muddying waters a bit with it.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

Not that I dont belive you, but you havent been cleared in somes eyes, hell render hasnt either!

Actually I should be pretty well verified here. if there was indeed a GOOD duke still out there and I was a lying wolf they would have duked it to me to ensure a wolf goes down last night.

They didn't because *I* am the good duke. As I've been trying to explain all along.

My only issue with lathum's plan is this: The wolves know who I am, they also know my role has no acting power beyond voting, so I'm not a prime target, they can kill me whenever they choose.

They now know who the BG is, if in fact Lathum IS the BG, I don't see why he would false reveal at this point.

That leaves 1 major good role left, the real seer. If they reveal themselves now and do not have any real beneficial info (If they scanned the dead people only so far for example) then they're in the driver's seat and can win this game prety easily.

I can get behind Lathum's plan IF the seer has some real useful info with wich we can clear at least 2 or 3 people.

[SnDvls]

my only concern is that there is only one seer still.

The one seer was either 1) the arrogant seer and was converted/changed after night 1 and thus only has 2 good scans or possibly 1 if they rescanned their night 1 target or 2) the arrogant seer comment was put there to throw everyone off and we really only have 1 true seer and now we're asking them to out themself.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Hrm, interesting. Some questions...

- Why protect me on Night One Lathum? Being that I have no role it just seems like an odd move to pick me out of a hat.

- So are we now 2/5th of the way to the Oceans' win-set?

- Are we sure about this seer reveal plan? It seems like we could be muddying waters a bit with it.

Not that I'm feeling warm and fuzzy enough to defend Lathum, but it was night 1, who was more apropriate for him to defend? none of us knew anything so it pretty much had to be a random protection order.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

my only concern is that there is only one seer still.

The one seer was either 1) the arrogant seer and was converted/changed after night 1 and thus only has 2 good scans or possibly 1 if they rescanned their night 1 target or 2) the arrogant seer comment was put there to throw everyone off and we really only have 1 true seer and now we're asking them to out themself.

I agree with you, thats why I qualified my comments that they had to have enough info to make it worthwhile.

If we think we can trust Lathum's reveal (based on what I know and see so far there is no real reason not to) Then we can start with he and I, add Clam, if the seer can clear at least 2 more then I think we can go with this. as that would give us a 5 vote block and pretty much control who gets lynched from here on out.

[RendeR]

Adding the seer would then make it 6, so I suppose even if the seer only has 1 name it could work as well. 2 would be best as that would leave us only 1 in 4 chance of lynching a villager at this point.

[RendeR]

Sorry if I just reitereated everything Lathum said, but I had to write it out and ponder it for myself to be sure I understood it.

At this point I think we should go with it. it gives us our CoT and controls the voting.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Not that I'm feeling warm and fuzzy enough to defend Lathum, but it was night 1, who was more apropriate for him to defend? none of us knew anything so it pretty much had to be a random protection order.

Well admiteddly I've never been a seer, but I'd think that without relevant info game-wise, I"d protect someone who I thought was a good villager or a likely night-kill reputation-wise. I'm surely neither of those.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Well admiteddly I've never been a seer, but I'd think that without relevant info game-wise, I"d protect someone who I thought was a good villager or a likely night-kill reputation-wise. I'm surely neither of those.

Well like Render said I had no idea about anyones role night 1, plus I was driving for 13 hours that day. I chacked my role early on and sent in that order for 2 reasons.

1. I felt you wouldn't be a likely day 1 lynch, that way if I missed the deadline I wouldn't be wasting my night action.

2. Please don't take this personaly, but I didn't want to guard one of the "usual" suspects because I didn't want the wolves to assume I would guard someone like Barkeep or ChiefRum. I want'd to protect someone more low key hoping the wolves wouldn't wanna risk a night 1 attack on a "vet"

[Lathum]

dola- I also think we can pretty much clear Render now since the real duke would have likely lynched him last night.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Lathum

dola- I also think we can pretty much clear Render now since the real duke would have likely lynched him last night.

Really? That doesn't make sense. All it suggests it that Render is not the evil duke in a game with two dukes. But I never really believed there were two dukes to begin with.

[Lathum]

Actualy this doesn't clear Render since there is no guarentee of 2 dukes in the game.

[RendeR]

Oh for fucks sake you two, get off it.

[Lathum]

just stating a fact.

[RendeR]

I AM NOT THE "EVIL" DUKE < MOVE THE HELL ALONG .

[RendeR]

Sorry, but Lathum, you're a real ass when you play, no matter the situation you make up your mind and lock your jaws until a villager is killed to satisfy your mental fucking state.

You're both WRONG, AGAIN. Please let go of this ignorant fucking theory and get on with trying to actually win the ame, if you waste yet ANOTHER day trying to lynch me then you're sealing this game for the wolves. Its stupid.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by RendeR

I AM NOT THE "EVIL" DUKE YOU STUBBORN FUCKING MULES< MOVE THE HELL ALONG AND DO SOMETHING USEFUL FOR A CHANGE.

Getting a bit sensitive?

I only pointed out the possibility of you being the wolf duke because I felt that it would be a mistake putting you into the 100% trusted category for being the duke when there exists the possibility of a wolf duke. But as far as I'm concerned, that just means that you're not any more cleared than the rest of us.

[ntndeacon]

At the very least we should be looking at uncleared folks.

[ntndeacon]

and to that end...

I am the seer.

[Telle]

Original or previously-arrogant?

[ntndeacon]

On night one, I looked at Chief Rum and got a weird result. rogue. I assume that is the event that changed me from arrogant seer to seer. I have not found a wolf. I can clear two people though....NIght 2 I looked at Barkeep. Night 3 I looked at Telle. both are villagers

[Telle]

Sweet. Now we have a definite CoT of three.. and possibly up to six if the other three reveals can be trusted.