Werewolf VI - Den of Thieves

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by Peregrine

It's a strange night, the full moon is out but it's quiet for most of the night. People sleep easier than they have for some days. Suddenly though, towards dawn, an explosion rocks the camp, tents are knocked down or destroyed, small trees flattened, and everyone wakes up and comes running out. In the center of the destruction stands BrianD, but he is greatly changed. He seems taller, and bigger, and he is surrounded by a flaring blue nimbus of magic. He speaks to you, and his mocking voice echoes supernaturally through the camp. "Fools, I am reborn! My creatures have returned my power!" He tosses aside some small objects, you think they were once the jewelled vials from the tower, but now they are just blackened lumps. He continues, "I am the warlock G'dar, owner of the tower, and you shall pay for your desecration! My creatures will drain you all dry!" One of the bandits shoots a bow at the warlock, but the arrow just bounces harmlessly off him. BrianD doesn't seem to be doing anything right now, but you have a feeling you wouldn't be able to hurt him even if you did lynch him. Umm...at least no one died tonight?

Shoulda hung him while you had the chance...

[jeff061]

hehe. I should of sucked up more to BrianD in IV .
Hoops, before we bandwagon kill someone else that'll put us on the edge maybe we should take a closer look at Henry's post, to say he was grasping at straws is putting it mildly, he wasn't exactly confident, he even considered changing his vote to Fouts(someone who I doubted before Brian got all crazy eyed).

I think now's about the time I like to go back and re-read the thread and try to put 2 and 2 together. Maybe we can make sense of the craziness last night.

[Thomkal]

Lovely. We absolutely have to get organized today and stop trying to make ourselves seems like less of a target. No doubt someone else was converted last night along with the appearance of G'dar. "G'day G'dar." I have a plan I'll detail in a bit, but for now, no villager (er bandit camp resident) that wants the camp to win, not the creatures, should NOT vote yet. After two useless lynches in a row, we need to put them on the defensive.

Question to Peregrine then. You say the warlock can't be hurt by a lynching. I'm assuming he also can't be hurt by a bandit attack. Is this correct?

[Eaglesfan27]

I'm wondering. Could that hacking coughing sound that Fouts reported be a sign that someone is in the process of being converted? Could it be a multi-day process? Just some thoughts I had while getting ready for work.

I'll be back from work at 5:00 or so to read this thread, post some more thoughts and vote. Fortunately, Tomorrow and Weds. I have all day internet access

[Thomkal]

That's a good thought Eaglesfan-worth considering.

Welcome Hoopsguy! Glad to see you contributing right away. Unfortunately your thought about their being no more creatures is flawed. The bandits win the game if the creatures are all killed according to the rules.

Also I ask that you take back your vote for Jeff for right now as it interferes with my plan for one and because I think Jeff's role is friendly to the bandits if I am right in how I viewed Henry's comments about him. Hopefully Jeff will confirm.

[Peregrine]

Question to Peregrine then. You say the warlock can't be hurt by a lynching. I'm assuming he also can't be hurt by a bandit attack. Is this correct?

It's safe to assume that.

[Thomkal]

Okay Thomkal's plan (tm) Part One.

Every person who has a role that is "anti-creature", that is a role that only allows you to win if the bandits eliminate the creatures should post their roles NOW. We have given the creatures such a big advantage over the last two days that unless we come together right now, we are simply not going to win. And after losing to the wolves in Werewolf V, I want to even the score.

Those revealing their role, should also reveal any and all information you might have received during the course of the game whether you think its significant or not. The time for secrecy is over. In the spirit of this plan, I will now reveal my role.

i AM A BANDIT. I used my kill power already alas, I will not say who right now because the creatures then can use the process of slimination to figure out which of us still have the power to kill. I did NOT receive any visions or PM's from Peregrine about what I saw during the night I killed him.

My fellow bandits should NOT reveal if they have used their kill power or not for the same reason as above. If you did see something that will help your fellow bandits when you did kill someone, you might consider revealing it.

Part two of my plan in the next post.

[hoopsguy]

Thomkal - consider it revoked for now.

Unvote jeff061

I think NeonChaos is the one who speculated that all the creatures may be gone. I'm finding that tough to believe with the lack of kills the last couple of nights. I would expect there are at least two of them around at this point (one left, one conversion?) although there is nothing resembling inside knowledge behind that guess.

If the warlock can't be hurt directly by our attacks, is it logical to assume that we have to eliminate the creatures before moving on to attack him?

[Thomkal]

Thomkal's Plan (tm), Part Two.

We need to put the creatures on the defensive. An early vote only serves to give them someone to bandwagon, hence why I asked Hoops to unvote Jeff. If anyone votes for Jeff after my plan is out, they are immediately suspected of being a creature. My idea here is not to place the first vote until around 5pm EST. I ask my fellow bandits and those friendly to the bandits efforts, to NOT vote until that time. Anyone voting before then (even if you say its because you won't have time/computer access to vote later) is a Creature or friendly to them in my mind. Once I have placed the vote on someone (not revealing who until I place the vote), then you may vote for that person, but only that person. Around 6pm, I will change my vote to another person I suspect as being a creature. The rest of you may vote for either candidate then.

What this does if I pick a creature with one of my two votes is make the creatures either scramble to save the one I voted for or sacrificing one of their own to protect the others. Of course with our luck, I will nominate two bandits. Anyone who does NOT vote at all is immediately a suspected creature.

quite frankly any one who debates my plan at this point, I consider them a creature trying to prevent my efforts to help my fellow bandits win. No one has come up with a plan for finding the creatures, so my fellow bandits and other friendly roles should have NO objections to using this plan. There is much to gain here through voting patterns and little to lose given the fact we have done so poorly so far in our efforts to figure out who's who.

I will now go through the list of people still alive and comment who I think might be safe at this point. Clearly with all the conversions going on, no one but me is safe. I have not been converted because I would not be proposing this plan otherwise. I'll wait a bit before commenting on people though to see the response to my plan. You might also comment on who you think is safe if you have proof of such, but we have no idea if your information is trustworthy so keep that in mind.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Peregrine

It's safe to assume that.

Well the game would be over if there was no way to kill BrianD in his new role as the Warlock. Whomever has that power MUST kill him tonight even if it means dying yourself. We bandits now have no way of killing him unless someone sees something I don't.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Thomkal - consider it revoked for now.

Unvote jeff061

I think NeonChaos is the one who speculated that all the creatures may be gone. I'm finding that tough to believe with the lack of kills the last couple of nights. I would expect there are at least two of them around at this point (one left, one conversion?) although there is nothing resembling inside knowledge behind that guess.

If the warlock can't be hurt directly by our attacks, is it logical to assume that we have to eliminate the creatures before moving on to attack him?

Thanks for unvoting him Hoops. And sorry if I mistook you for Neon about their being no creatures left. I have to think there are at least three creatures left, two conversions, one original. But it would not surprise me if there are four or five left either.

That's an interesting theory about the warlock, you may be right especially if there is no one out there who has the power to kill him. It matters little I think because we can't kill or lynch him ourselves anyway.

[digamma]

I'm game for your plan, Thomkal.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

quite frankly any one who debates my plan at this point, I consider them a creature trying to prevent my efforts to help my fellow bandits win. No one has come up with a plan for finding the creatures, so my fellow bandits and other friendly roles should have NO objections to using this plan. There is much to gain here through voting patterns and little to lose given the fact we have done so poorly so far in our efforts to figure out who's who.

I don't want to debate your plan nor object to it, but I would like to point out you have become a prime target for the creatures. Because of that fact, your plan would work for one night, and one night only. So, if you're calling the shots, would it be advisable to reveal what you plan on doing for the successive days? Or, does this become a Catch-22 because if you reveal the plan, they know it. If you don't, then we may not know how to proceed from tonight.

Just some musings.

[Thomkal]

RA,

Yep I know I have made myself a prime target for the creatures. i have some thoughts on that I'll reveal later today.

And those who are willing to try my plan should be revealing their roles now.

[KevinNU7]

What's to say Thomkal isn't a creature and won't pick two bandits tonight?

[Neon_Chaos]

I think that the other guards shouldn't reveal themselves for now.

Thomkal, your plan deserves merit, but I still think that we need to think this through. If there IS someone here who can stop BrianD a.k.a. "G'dar", then I suggest you do what you're supposed to do to kick his sorry butt.

I think JeeberD's been lying low since he got off the hook a couple of days ago. Care to chime in Jeebs?

[Raiders Army]

Please no one post for a few minutes so I can get all of this in here together. I don't want to make a huge post, so I'll post four individual ones.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by KevinNU7

What's to say Thomkal isn't a creature and won't pick two bandits tonight?

What part of you're dead and you are not supposed to be commenting like this do you not understand? Besides you were absolutely certain I was a bandit back when you were alive.

PLEASE STOP POSTING STRATEGY THOUGHTS IF YOU ARE DEAD. ITS NOT FAIR TO THOSE STILL IN THE GAME. (and you ruined a potential outing of a creature if they had slipped up and said the same thing, so thanks a lot Kevin.

[Neon_Chaos]

dola

As for my night vision, I was following someone I suspected, however he was just sleeping soundly in his bed last night. I won't name him unless he's targetted.

Are we sure we can't hurt him (G'dar/BrianD) if we lynch him? We ARE like, you know, KICK ASS bandits and all. I say we gut him right now, and check out his apparent superpowers.

Vote BrianD

[Raiders Army]

This is how the voting has gone down (Part 1)

Mr. Wednesday votes for JeeberD
Coffee Warlord votes for Mr. Wednesday
Raiders Army votes for JeeberD
mrsimperless votes for JeeberD
KevinNU7 votes for Qwikshot
BrianD votes for mrsimperless
Thomkal votes for mrsimperless
BrianD unvotes mrsimperless, votes for Mr. Wednesday
SirFozzie votes for JeeberD
TazFTW votes for Mr. Wednesday
KWhit votes for Mr. Wednesday
Qwikshot votes for JeeberD
KWhit unvotes Mr. Wednesday, votes for JeeberD
jeff061 votes for JeeberD
heybrad votes for Mr. Wednesday
Suicane75 votes for Mr. Wednesday
digamma votes for JeeberD
Fouts votes for Mr. Wednesday
Swaggs votes for JeeberD
Schmidty votes for Mr. Wednesday
Eaglesfan27 votes for JeeberD
Masked votes for JeeberD
Vince votes for Mr. Wednesday
JeeberD votes for Mr. Wednesday
henry296 votes for Mr. Wednesday
Neon_Chaos votes for Mr. Wednesday
kingfc22 votes for Mr. Wednesday

Mr. Wednesday (Bandit) lynched
Qwikshot (Bandit) killed by creature
mrsimperless (Ex-Deputy) killed by bandit

I put in color those who left in the game and how they voted. Red is voting for a bandit/sheriff, Blue is unknown.

[Raiders Army]

Coffee Warlord votes for henry296
KevinNU7 votes for SirFozzie
kingfc22 votes for JeeberD
KWhit votes for SirFozzie
heybrad votes for SirFozzie
Swaggs votes for JeeberD
JeeberD votes for SirFozzie
jeff061 votes for SirFozzie
Vince votes for SirFozzie
henry296 votes for JeeberD
Fouts votes for JeeberD
BrianD votes for henry296
Suicane75 votes for SirFozzie
Raiders Army votes for heybrad
Airhog votes for SirFozzie
Masked votes for SirFozzie
Schmidty votes for SirFozzie
TazFTW votes for SirFozzie
Thomkal votes for SirFozzie
Raiders Army unvotes heybrad, votes KevinNU7
Eaglesfan27 votes for SirFozzie
digamma votes for JeeberD
Neon_Chas didn’t vote

SirFozzie (Bandit) lynched
KevinNU7 (Spy) killed by bandit
Coffee Warlord (Spy) killed by creature
Vince (Creature) killed by bandit
Swaggs (Bandit) killed by bandit
Schmidty (Creature) killed by bandit
Raiders Army attacked but saved by Doctor

[digamma]

Paging Fouts--

Now that we have the Gdar revelation, does this impact your role at all? Perhaps you cannot say, but did you have any specifics on how to kill the creature leader?

[Raiders Army]

KWhit votes for henry296
Neon_Chaos votes for Airhog
Thomkal votes for henry296
KWhit unvotes henry296, votes for Airhog
BrianD votes for Airhog
TazFTW votes for henry296
henry296 votes for Airhog
jeff061 votes for henry296
Fouts votes for henry296
Raiders Army votes for Airhog
digamma votes for henry296
kingfc22 votes for henry296
Suicane75 votes for JeeberD
JeeberD votes for henry296
Airhog votes for henry296
JeeberD unvotes henry296, votes for Airhog
digamma unvotes henry296, votes for Airhog
jeff061 unvotes henry296, votes for Airhog
Eaglesfan27 votes for Airhog
Thomkal unvotes henry296, votes for Airhog
kingfc22 unvotes henry296, votes for Airhog
Masked votes for henry296
heybrad didn’t vote

Airhog (Bandit) lynched
KWhit (Bandit) killed by BrianD?

FWIW, I don't think this voting day tells us much, since Airhog messed himself up.

[Raiders Army]

BrianD votes for henry296
TazFTW votes for henry296
Neon_Chaos votes for Fouts
Fouts votes for henry296
henry296 votes for jeff061
Thomkal votes for henry296
jeff061 votes for henry296
digamma votes for henry296
JeeberD votes for henry296
Eaglesfan27 votes for henry296
Raiders Army votes for henry296
Masked votes for henry296
Suicane75 didn’t vote
heybrad didn’t vote
kingfc22 didn’t vote

henry296 (Bandit) lynched
BrianD revealed as Warlock

Just a note: Blue doesn't necessarily mean good. It just means unknown. Red is definitely bad, and perhaps there are reasons why we've done it. A bandit analysis is forthcoming.

[Raiders Army]

One last dola, and this just shows us how shitty our voting has been.

[KevinNU7]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

What part of you're dead and you are not supposed to be commenting like this do you not understand? Besides you were absolutely certain I was a bandit back when you were alive.

PLEASE STOP POSTING STRATEGY THOUGHTS IF YOU ARE DEAD. ITS NOT FAIR TO THOSE STILL IN THE GAME. (and you ruined a potential outing of a creature if they had slipped up and said the same thing, so thanks a lot Kevin.

[Thomkal]

I'll be away from the computer for an hour or so, and Peregrine please ask Kevin to stop posting in this thread.

[KWhit]

Can I still post in this thread, Thom?

[KevinNU7]

Peregrine, please ask Thomkal to stop posting in this thread

[KWhit]

To be fair, though, the dead folks shouldn't be posting strategy in this thread.

Believe me, there is plenty that I would like to say right now but won't because I'm now pushing up daisies.

[KevinNU7]

I've been avoiding it but my comment was so obvious I felt it need to be said by someone

[Raiders Army]

And then there were 14.
This is how I see it at this point. Out of the 14 that are left,

1 is a Warlock
1 is the Camp Leader
1 is the Hostage
1 is the Sheriff's Man
1 is the Doctor
At least 1 is an Ex-Deputy (only one has been discovered so far)
There is probably at least 1 creature
At least 2 are Guards

That leaves possibly 5 people to be bandits.

On second thought, I'm not sure whether I trust Thomkal at this point. Looking at the voting history and assigning a negative 1 to each time the person voted for an innocent, we see the following:


Suicane75 -2
Neon_Chaos -2
digamma -2
kingfc22 -2
heybrad (now hoopsguy) -2

jeff061 -3
Fouts -3
Raiders Army -3
Eaglesfan27 -3
Masked -3

JeeberD -4
TazFTW -4
Thomkal -4

BrianD -4 (Warlock)

Jeebs slipped up the 1st day and that makes him almost a lock to be in cahoots with BrianD. I'm not sure about Thomkal...I'm just not sure. Every day, he's voted to kill an innocent.

[digamma]

The Fouts-Neon_Chaos interplay is interesting as well.

I find it particularly interesting that Neon_Chaos, after first saying he had been following Fouts around, then hearing Fouts's explanation and apologizing for blowing his cover, still voted for Fouts.

I'm not sure what to make of that.

[jeff061]

Yes, I am confused by Thomkal's plan, I'll go along with it for now, simply because I have no other idea, but it seems I'm not the only one to think of the possibility of being set up. And according to your plan I'm a creature because of it? I'm not sure I get it, but whatever.

In any case, if you think I have some special ability that can help us win, you'll be disappointed. I'm a bandit, but I do not want to give up my "kill status" at this time.

[Fouts]

Originally Posted by digamma

Paging Fouts--

Now that we have the Gdar revelation, does this impact your role at all? Perhaps you cannot say, but did you have any specifics on how to kill the creature leader?

I received a vision of myself and the doctor working together, but it was interrupted by the Warlock's revelation. I'm hoping to get more information tonight.

I will say that the other person I received a message about was JeeberD, but since Henry was just a bandit, maybe that was the Warlock distracting me away from him.

[BrianD]

Wow, I thought trying to talk my way out of being suspected last game was rough. I don't think I'll ever get people to trust me again. It is a bit odd having my role announced for me, and it is even more odd knowing that you all can't do anything about it. It should be fun figuring out strategy from this point out.

[hoopsguy]

I have not been converted because I would not be proposing this plan otherwise

Thomkal, here is one point in your argument that strikes me as a fallacy. If you were a creature you might very well do this. Because if you are able to get buy-in, then you are moving the odds in your direction by picking two bandits. And the people who bandwagon towards an innocent the next day become the suspects. I'm just not sure that this plan makes it an easier for us. This isn't to suggest you don't have the very best of intentions here, but it is a big leap of faith for any of us to back anyone.

The perfect time for a creature to run this kind of a gambit is when they are one day away from victory - if they get a bandit kill via lynching, then one kill/conversion/whatever that next night to swing it in their favor.

And, as far as objecting being an argument for creature suspicion, I don't think that withdrawing from conversation for fear of being suspected a creature is the right approach. If that leads to me hanging from a tree my first day in the game, I guess so be it.

All that being said, I'm content to check back again later tonight to see what logic/reasoning you present on everyone. I've kept up with the thread from a distance before last night, but now that I'm in the game I probably need to re-visit my assumptions on a few of my fellow campers.

[Coffee Warlord]

Lynch me! Lynch me!

Oh. Wait. Damn.

[Thomkal]

Unbelievable.

I can understand why people are wary of anyone asking roles to be revealed, but come on my fellow bandits-we've lyched four bandits so far and not a single creature. No one, especially with the conversion roles can be 100% trusted, even myself, and certainly not anyone who's come forth with a vision or a guard claim. So our options are to flounder around like fish out of water gasping for air letting the creatures totally control the votes like they did the last two times, or take a chance on a plan that involves making the creatures sweat instead of us for a change. And I guarantee you they are sweating, trying to use my own words against me and make it look like I couldn't be anything but a creature. I AM A BANDIT AND I WANT US TO WIN.

If you are a bandit or bandit-friendly role at this point you should be willing to take a chance on a plan since we aren't doing very well on our own are we? You people have to realize this is a team game not a last man standing game-the creatures know who their fellow creatures are can use that against us. We bandits don't have that luxury unless we decide to come together as a team ourselves. I'm going to continue on with my plan because I think it can work if I get enough support.

As for dead people commenting on the game, my opinion and perhaps my opinion is not the same as Peregrine's is that once you are dead you have lost the right to try to affect the outcome of the game. Talk in PM's all you want with the other dead people. I know I did in Werewolf V. The reason some of you were killed was no doubt to get you to shut up-either by the creatures or the bandits or special roles. Likely the reason I will be killed. If you can continue to talk about the game publically after you a dead then we might as well not kill anyone and let everybody figure out who the creatures are for the entire game.

okay I'll catch up with some of the other comments since my plan was posted now.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by digamma

I'm game for your plan, Thomkal.

If you are game for my plan you should be willing to reveal your role.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos

dola

As for my night vision, I was following someone I suspected, however he was just sleeping soundly in his bed last night. I won't name him unless he's targetted.

Are we sure we can't hurt him (G'dar/BrianD) if we lynch him? We ARE like, you know, KICK ASS bandits and all. I say we gut him right now, and check out his apparent superpowers.

Vote BrianD

Uh Neon, go back and read Peregrine's posts again. It clearly says he will not be hurt if we lynch or bandit attack Brian. It wouldn't be fair to Brian if we could after Peregrine "outed" him. So yes I'm sure because Peregrine is the one person in this game who wouldn't lie to us. I cannot even fathom why you would then vote for him.

[digamma]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

If you are game for my plan you should be willing to reveal your role.

I've said at least once before that I am a bandit. That hasn't changed.

[Raven]

I'm just watching, but Kevin, you shouldn't be participating. You are dead.
I'm sure everyone still playing the game is thinking that, but don't want to be the one to tell you because that makes them look suspect.

If you continue to participate in the game, I'd assume Peregrine/KWhit won't ever invite you to play again.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

And then there were 14.
This is how I see it at this point. Out of the 14 that are left,

1 is a Warlock
1 is the Camp Leader
1 is the Hostage
1 is the Sheriff's Man
1 is the Doctor
At least 1 is an Ex-Deputy (only one has been discovered so far)
There is probably at least 1 creature
At least 2 are Guards

That leaves possibly 5 people to be bandits.

On second thought, I'm not sure whether I trust Thomkal at this point. Looking at the voting history and assigning a negative 1 to each time the person voted for an innocent, we see the following:


Suicane75 -2
Neon_Chaos -2
digamma -2
kingfc22 -2
heybrad (now hoopsguy) -2

jeff061 -3
Fouts -3
Raiders Army -3
Eaglesfan27 -3
Masked -3

JeeberD -4
TazFTW -4
Thomkal -4

BrianD -4 (Warlock)

Jeebs slipped up the 1st day and that makes him almost a lock to be in cahoots with BrianD. I'm not sure about Thomkal...I'm just not sure. Every day, he's voted to kill an innocent.

Understandable why you might think that according to your scale. But if you go by that same scale you are looking pretty suspicious yourself at -3, just one point above me. And it might have been -4 yourself if you hadn't gone after heybrad for his actions against you in the previous game. And the fact remains in the end that the majority voted out a bandit all four times. Was there ever a single vote for one of the two known creatures and now Warlock?

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by jeff061

Yes, I am confused by Thomkal's plan, I'll go along with it for now, simply because I have no other idea, but it seems I'm not the only one to think of the possibility of being set up. And according to your plan I'm a creature because of it? I'm not sure I get it, but whatever.

In any case, if you think I have some special ability that can help us win, you'll be disappointed. I'm a bandit, but I do not want to give up my "kill status" at this time.

I certainly understand you thinking of the possibility of a set-up Jeff. But especially if you are the role I think you are (and yes I still think you are a role), you want every last bandit alive and should be willing to go along with my plan because it protects you. I don't think you have an ability that will help us bandits win. I think you are a bandit friendly role but I'm certainly willing to admit I could be totally wrong. But if you are a simple bandit as you claim you still should help me with this plan because it makes sense for my fellow bandits to do so at this point in the game.

[BrianD]

Ok, I'm willing to reveal my role. I'm a lowly bandit, but thanks to a lucky accident involving being bit by a radioactive spider that had been fed a steady diet of Berry Blue Kool-Aid Bursts, I now have the ability to make blue light come out of my hands. Through the use of this power, I hope to scare people away from me by calling myself a warlock. Hopefully the bandits will be too afraid to come near me, and the creatures will be afraid to come after me. Really, deep down, I just want to be loved.

[KWhit]

Hehe.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Fouts

I received a vision of myself and the doctor working together, but it was interrupted by the Warlock's revelation. I'm hoping to get more information tonight.

I will say that the other person I received a message about was JeeberD, but since Henry was just a bandit, maybe that was the Warlock distracting me away from him.

What was the message about Jeeber so he can respond to what you saw. I have no clue what to make of your vision of yourself and the doctor together.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by BrianD

Ok, I'm willing to reveal my role. I'm a lowly bandit, but thanks to a lucky accident involving being bit by a radioactive spider that had been fed a steady diet of Berry Blue Kool-Aid Bursts, I now have the ability to make blue light come out of my hands. Through the use of this power, I hope to scare people away from me by calling myself a warlock. Hopefully the bandits will be too afraid to come near me, and the creatures will be afraid to come after me. Really, deep down, I just want to be loved.

So, I had a chat with my buddies up here in Valhalla. We made a few phone calls, and got your hotel room in hell all lined up.

[jeff061]

I'm kind of riding the wave right now, I expect there is something to be said by others who have not spoken up yet. We simply do not have much to go on. Quite frankly I have a few suspects, but none really stick out enough.