09-13-2006, 12:36 PM | #551 |
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I don't know, but I also thought a tie was bad. Even though we don't have much info, we should pick a victim instead of delegting the pick to god knows who. I'm a big fan of forcing people to commit one way or the other and be on record.
I'm assuming Latham switched off of me because he knew I only had one vote, so it was sort of a meaningless vote. |
09-13-2006, 12:41 PM | #552 | |
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Good point .. technically there should have been 2 night kills last night. That is kind of huge if we actually managed to lynch pilkington at some point. The only problem is if that is the case, we don't know necessarily if it was St.cronin or Bulletsponge. If it was St.cronin it doesn't help us much since Swaggs made that decision and is already trusted. If Bulletsponge, it could go to help put more trust in some of those voters. Perhaps that was a reason for the kill last night, that they assumed at some point we'll learn that Bullet was pilkington and would have more trust in Lathum or realdeal for committing last minute to lynch him. |
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09-13-2006, 12:44 PM | #553 |
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Hmm only problem with my thoughts though.. From the initial rules, I'm not sure that the revolutionaries know who Pilkington was. It sounds like he knows who 1 revolutionary was though. It could very well have been he died in a night kill as a lynch possibly. (if he is dead)
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09-13-2006, 02:05 PM | #554 |
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Ugh. Quiet day... No one has any thoughts or theories?
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09-13-2006, 02:06 PM | #555 |
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We'll get the answer on Pilkington soon enough - if we never have a 2nd night kill then we must have got him. I'll have a hard time believing that he is waiting until Night 4 to use his kill when he has the opportunity to do it every 3rd night.
N2/N5/N8 was how I believe it was listed under his role - having some browser issues this morning so I don't want to open another window to pull the exact text. |
09-13-2006, 02:12 PM | #556 | |
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Guess someone has to start off the voting. My vote will probably change, but Dodgerchick has cast meaningless votes both days so far, so we'll start the ball rolling there and get some reactions. Vote Dodgerchick |
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09-13-2006, 02:12 PM | #557 |
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Agree with hoops. Yeah, I would have used Pilkington's powers last night if I were him. Which may mean we killed Pilkington in a lynch or he died in a night kill.
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09-13-2006, 02:14 PM | #558 |
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You are correct about the N2 N5 N8 thing. One other note is Pilkington knows the identity of one of the revolutionaries.. One thing I think might be ideal is if Clover or Moses discovers which one was Pilkington, to try to see if you can tie any correlation to one person who they might have been protecting.
I doubt it would have been as obvious as the whole Anxiety protecting Lathum thing earlier in the game, but there might be some subtle hint out there that you can pick out. I definitly wouldn't come out right now about who was Pilkington just yet, but it might be interesting to look into just to add to your notes for when the right time to come out comes around. |
09-13-2006, 02:15 PM | #559 |
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One thing that I found interesting yesterday is that Bulletsponge went down pretty quietly. From that, I am making the assumption that we got either an evil role or else an ordinary villager. I'm just about sure that if we were about to lynch the seer that he would look to extend his life for another day, ask for protection that night, etc.
Have a question for Path - since the tie-breaker role was not used yesterday, does it stay with the same person who inherited it or does it move every night regardless of whether it is invoked? |
09-13-2006, 02:16 PM | #560 |
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Dola, in fact my suggestion if you have time, would be to go through and try to identify each post made by pilkington and see who they referenced (either good or bad). Another strategy sometimes used is totally ignoring the fellow bad guy in your posts (as in to not draw attention to them), and in return you end up drawing attention by the lack of attention.
If he is dead, it happened so early though, not sure if there will be enough data to do this completley though. |
09-13-2006, 02:16 PM | #561 |
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I keep hoping we are going to hear some evidence on the people that have died so far. It is hard to have too much discussion when we don't know what we've already done.
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09-13-2006, 02:17 PM | #562 |
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Way to break my dola hoops.
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09-13-2006, 02:19 PM | #563 | |
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I disagree completely Brian. These two end up being the key to us winning the game I bet. Unless we get lucky with seer views, I have a feeling that it will come down to what we learn from the roles of these victims. If we have our roles come out on day 3 and reveal themselves, they become night targets and then what will we do day 6+? The game is setup in a way that if some bad chance one of our important roles with this information die, the odds are their information will pass to the other (75%) so I completely disagree with your thoughs and personally say they should keep it to themselves and continue to build on what they know either till they have some game breaking discovery or until one of them dies and the risk of both dying and taking all the information to the grave becomes too great. |
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09-13-2006, 02:23 PM | #564 | |
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The tie-breaker will stay with the person to whom it is currently assigned until that person uses it.
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09-13-2006, 02:23 PM | #565 | |
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Last game I played I went along with everyone else and every single one of my votes caused a villager to get lynched so this time, I'm voting based on what *I* think (at this point is absolutely nothing). |
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09-13-2006, 02:27 PM | #566 |
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I'm curious what qualifies as a game-breaking discovery for these roles.
- Would the lynching of a critical good guy role qualify? - Would the lynching of a revolutionary on Day 1 qualify, given that a new one arises to take its place and that only a percentage of the bad guys know the identities of the revolutionaries? I've been thinking about this for a couple of days now. It obviously makes it easier for us to play today with some information in hand, but the Revolutionaries and other bad guys are working under similar limitations. They don't know which roles they have killed, or even if it was a friend/foe. So I'm not sure I would want to give them that information unless it broke with a substantial advantage to the Farm. |
09-13-2006, 02:28 PM | #567 |
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I need to head out for a few hours.. I was hoping we would have more meaningful discussion today, but it looks like most people are staying quiet, which is unfortunate for us villagers I think. I should be back before lynch, but I'll put out my vote for today.
Vote BrianD He has been quite snakeish this game so far. His butt was on the line day 1 and he quickly took an out offered to him by Swaggs to jump on Anxiety without much consideration. Day 2, I brought up my feelings about how Bulletsponge had been acting (and I still feel he likely was Pilkington.. I might be wrong, but its just a hunch on my part), regardless though BrianD quickly jumped on my reasoning for Bullet and led a charge on him, without much insight of his own. Later in Day 2, BrianD sparred a bit with Lathum, with the whole playing dumb defense stuff, and then when Lathum died last night, BrianD replied seemingly prepared to take the heat for it with a prepared response despite no one even mentioning him yet, and the only attacks regarding Lathum's death being at Passacaglia. I dunno much if Brian is good or bad, but sometimes where there is smoke, there is fire... and so far Brian has been all over 3 of the 4 kills this game. |
09-13-2006, 02:29 PM | #568 |
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Dola, and I forgot to mention in my BrianD vote he now wants our important roles to reveal themselves on day 3 when it helps the wolves arguably more than our side at this point.
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09-13-2006, 02:29 PM | #569 |
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Double dola.. I agree with your last part hoops fully. I need to run. 1 min till conference call. I'll think about what I classify as a game breaking discovery in my personal opinion later. Have to run now.
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09-13-2006, 02:30 PM | #570 | |
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You are right, and I think I made similar points in an earlier post. The smart thing for these folks to do is wait until they have info on a number of people and then lay everything out. While that may be the smart thing to do, it doesn't help the rest of us while we wait. We have to keep making fairly random guesses while we wait, and there isn't a whole lot to talk about while we are being random. There just isn't much to analyze. I agree that there is some to analyze since some of the bad guys know each other, but we are really kind of in a holding pattern while we wait for some big reveals. |
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09-13-2006, 02:34 PM | #571 | ||
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I've already posted what would happen if the seers revealed themselves and why it would be smarter to wait. My point about having information available was that it would give us something to do and talk about. Vote for me if you want, but realize I'm not trying to draw them out, I'm just commenting that we can't do much until information is made available. |
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09-13-2006, 02:38 PM | #572 | |
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I think the lack of info puts the villagers at a larger disadvantage. For the Revolutionaries, there's a pretty good chance they've killed a foe -- say there are 4 of them, they have two friends, so a 2 out of 16 chance of hitting a friend. If I were them, I'd just take those odds and keep blasting. Beyond that, I'm not sure what you're getting at. |
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09-13-2006, 02:39 PM | #573 | |
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This intrigues me. I'd like to hear more from others. BrianD? What do you think?
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09-13-2006, 02:41 PM | #574 | |
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2 out of 14 chance (subtract the revs themselves)
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09-13-2006, 02:43 PM | #575 | ||||
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Actually, I think I made the offer to Swaggs. Quote:
I agreed with your (limited) reasoning and voted for him. I used your logic, so that makes me bad? Also, I didn't lead a charge, I just was the first to vote for him. I didn't try to sway anyone. Quote:
I joked about Lathum playing the "I wouldn't be that stupid" role, and then play it myself? That is like someone writing a book about killing a guy with an icepick and then killing a guy like it was described in the book....er...wait. I gave my response to his death first because it seemed like such an obvious setup attempt. Rather than sounding defensive later, I made my comments first. Quote:
I can't argue with this. Smoke does sometimes lead to fire. Of course sometimes when you see smoke, it is because you are holding a lit match. I'm not pointing any fingers yet, but for nobody having any real information yet, you seem to be pretty convinced that I am bad. Since I know that I'm not bad, I have to wonder a little bit why you are making such a case. As competitive as I am, I am (trying to be) willing to take one for the (good) team if it helps us later on. You'll eventually find out that I am good even if you don't believe me now. |
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09-13-2006, 02:44 PM | #576 |
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09-13-2006, 02:44 PM | #577 |
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There have been a couple of questions PM'd to me regarding the order in which night actions are performed. Basically it comes down like this:
Views are resolved Bodyguard is assigned Revolutionary kill Pilkington kill Hope that helps clarify. Out for a bit, let me know if there are questions about this.
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09-13-2006, 02:47 PM | #578 | |
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When did Brian attack me? |
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09-13-2006, 02:51 PM | #579 |
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He might be saying that people were looking at you for Lathum's death and I jumped in and defended myself. I don't remember anyone attacking you, but I was probably more focused on the obvious setup of me at the time. I don't think Alan meant that I attacked you. I'm sure I haven't attacked you because I still haven't decided if I should type out your full name, or if I can get away with shortening it to 'Pass'. |
09-13-2006, 02:57 PM | #580 | |
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Weird -- I don't remember anyone looking at me for Lathum's death. As for shortening the name, it's a conundrum -- the problem, I think, is that sometimes someone will write the word 'pass' and when I read it, I get all like, "What? Who's talking about me?" and it takes me a while to settle down. |
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09-13-2006, 03:00 PM | #581 | |
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Maybe Alan is just trying to plant some seeds to make people suspicious of others. I did find it mildly entertaining that he attacked me and then left. If I shorten your name, I'll be sure to capitalize it. Knowing my memory, you'll either get a shortened name, or a misspelled one. I'm not sure which is worse... |
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09-13-2006, 03:21 PM | #582 |
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I think you either misread it, or I miswrote it. when BrianD came out defending himself, at that point, the only comments regarding Lathum's death I think was your comments to Anxiety. I don't have any feel that you are bad so far from what I have seen. |
09-13-2006, 03:24 PM | #583 | |
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I think you are purposely twisting around what I wrote. I haven't pointed a finger at anyone so far this game except for Bulletsponge, Goldeneagle (only for missing a vote) and you so far. And I didn't just disappear. I've been on all day today from work, trying to start up discussion, with many people on and everyone is just avoiding anything that might help us trying to solve this stuff. The only exception is hoops who I feel has been honestly trying to work some stuff out himself. I voted you as a placer vote and hoping it might start up some discussion. I have 7 minutes till I need to leave for my next meeting, so I'm up for any response you want to make in that time. Anything after, I'll have to respond to when I'm back from it later |
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09-13-2006, 03:27 PM | #584 |
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Here is a theory on "Why Lathum" - he spoke out against ties and made it clear he wants to avoid them going forward. Perhaps the Revolutionaries control the tie-breaker and would like to see a tie emerge if they are in position to break it.
The 2nd question was "why didn't Lathum break the tie the night before"? Maybe he did with the tie-breaker role. I think this one is probably a bigger reach than the first theory in this post, but this is my best effort to process limited information. |
09-13-2006, 03:28 PM | #585 | |||
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I would say that qualifies as 'others'. Maybe not a lot of others, but some. Quote:
You said you were running right after making that long post. I didn't realize it was only for a short time. What looked like a hit-and-run was really more of a hit-and-return-soon. Oh well. Quote:
Voting for me is a good way to get discussion from me. Actually, I'm mostly working on my WW verbal sparring skills and trying to not become defensive and mean. I have that tendency and am trying to break myself of it. |
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09-13-2006, 03:30 PM | #586 |
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dola,
Alan, I would love to discuss strategy and theories with you, but I'm not sure we have enough information to do that. If nothing else, we can put on a mini-show for others and hope that increased attendance leads to more discussion. |
09-13-2006, 03:32 PM | #587 |
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Not many votes in at this point. I count two.
DC - Real (556) BrianD - AlanT (567) |
09-13-2006, 03:33 PM | #588 | |
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To be honest, I didn't think I would return when I did. I have a few meetings scheduled back to back. One ended a little early is all. I do have to take off now though, but will be back later. As for getting discussion out of voting for someone, I really don't like doing that.. Since then instead of people being open with their thoughts and feelings, they end up responding defensively. That sometimes closes up certain avenues of thoughts that might help us. After going through my research today, trying to find information on why Lathum, the main guilty suspicion I had was to you. I didn't come out and say it, but instead was waiting to see what thoughts others had.. .Since evidentally no one had many, I went ahead and posted mine. Unfortunatly I need to run to another meeting, but I'll be back later. Not another hit and run here.. just hit and meeting |
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09-13-2006, 03:35 PM | #589 |
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Brian, I'm all for the "show" of theories in terms of sparking discussion. I've thrown a few ideas out there today in terms of how I'm interpreting events (which are not really helping me get much closer to a vote at the moment) and would love to get feedback on if they make sense to others in the game.
I think Pilkerton is really the most significant one - does anyone think that if he was alive he would bypass a kill on his first night? If so, why? And is there any reason at all to think he is still in the game if there is not a double kill tonight? |
09-13-2006, 03:39 PM | #590 | |
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Stupid meetings. This game would go much more smoothly if people didn't have real lives. I can see how you would be suspicious of me. I had some words with Lathum last night, and I got very defensive when Blade (I believe it was him) voted for me. I haven't played a very good game so far, and I really don't have any great theories on who might be bad. I still think it would be worthwhile to look at those who haven't been saying much since everybody knows that talking gets you in trouble (right Blade? ), but I have no specific proof against anyone. Sadly, I'm going to have to run in about an hour and will be out until past the deadline, so I'm going to have to throw out my random vote soon... |
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09-13-2006, 03:44 PM | #591 | |
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I don't think there is a good reason for him not to attempt a kill right away. I think there are a few reasonable thoughts on who is good, and the kill should be fairly certain to be good for him. He might be hoping the seer or role-readers will out themselves, but I would think a better strategy would be to make a kill right away and have the second kill ready for the outted seer. In a numbers game, it seems to make sense to work on the numbers rather than on specific targets. It is possible that the bodyguard blocked something last night and there really were two kill attempts, but the odds of that being the care are pretty low. |
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09-13-2006, 03:50 PM | #592 |
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Another observation - the wolves are taking a strategy of going after experienced players with the night kills.
N1: Saldana N2: Lathum I think that puts a little more pressure on the "vets" because they will gradually fall under more suspicion as they last longer in the game, as well as creating more tension for the night kills. There is a part of me that wants to respond to that strategy by going after people who I think are less likely to be night kills. After all, why would I try to lynch Blade when I think the Revolutionaries will do it sooner (not later) if he is not aligned with them? No offense to anyone who doesn't fit this profile, but if I do find myself around near end-game I would prefer that it be in the company of more experienced players who have some daytime availability and a track record of participating in discussion. I've seen a bunch of games end with minimal discussion down the stretch and it just isn't as much fun to play or watch. So, I would urge people to take part in the conversation. Primarily because it makes for a more fun game, but secondarily because I don't want to use that as a significant basis for votes as the game advances. |
09-13-2006, 03:55 PM | #593 |
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Path, if Pilkington did not kill on Night 2, will he still be able to kill on Night 5? Or is the kill only allowed every three days?
In other words, is N3/N5/N8 permissable or is Pilkington now forced into N3/N6/N9? If it is the latter, he really hurt his cause by not attempting a kill last night. |
09-13-2006, 03:58 PM | #594 | |
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He can kill every third night starting the 2nd. I read that as 2/5/8 or 3/6/9. I don't think he can store them up. |
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09-13-2006, 04:03 PM | #595 | |
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Even when im not trying to get under peoples skin i piss people off(2 already this game). Gotta love WW
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09-13-2006, 04:04 PM | #596 |
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Is it possible pilkington is as bewildered as the rest of us and is too afraid he will hit a wolf with his kill?
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09-13-2006, 04:04 PM | #597 |
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09-13-2006, 04:06 PM | #598 | |
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At the very least, Swaggs would be a free hit...unless he was protected. I suppose Pilkington might be afraid that he was expected to hit Swaggs and didn't want to get caught... |
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09-13-2006, 04:09 PM | #599 | |
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I did, all too well...hence why im trying to be less controversial this game, though despite my best efforts i have obviously failed miserably
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09-13-2006, 04:12 PM | #600 | |
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In the circumstance you describe, they could kill tonight if desired. There just must be three days between kill attempts. So if there was a kill attempt tonight, there could not be another one until N6.
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