WW CXLVI: Portal GAME OVER - Test8

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Colour me unsurprised that not unvoting didn't appear to have any adverse effects. Yeah, that's me saying "I told you so".

I knew that was coming.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Still not sure what to make of day one.

1) There were wolves but they didn't get a kill on night one or got a conversion or were blocked. The vote tie resulted in a no-lynch.
2) We were all-vanila and the day somehow determined who became wolves/roled.
3) We were all-vanilla and Crimson was having a laugh.

1 or 2 means there is some value in considering the events of day one. 3 means Crimson is going to be lynched day one of the next game.

Regarding Zinto I'm leaning to him getting the DukeCube from the button push and Crimson hoping that the wolves wouldn't pay attention to it. I don't necessarily think that there being a DukeCube means that any potential roles will get their powers in the same way.

Of the possibilities you mentioned for day 1, I suspect it's more 1) than the other two. I think it's reasonable that if we found out we weren't able to unvote until late in the day that the no lynch day 1 was planned and the wolves would be unable to night kill in compensation. It's all speculation, but I'm not going to completely disregard day 1 voting in case it's true. I'll probably assign it half a day's worth of value in comparison to other days to hedge my bets though.

[tyketime]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Oh, you pressed the button? Oh I see. Very well. I did not think you would press the button. Really? You really pressed it. That is the fastest recorded time of button pressing ever.

(A crashing noise is heard elsewhere)

I'm not so sure I believe pressing the button gave him the cube. As others have pointed out, that would make it too easy. But in looking at the flavor of the text, a crashing sound is heard elsewhere so I don't know he was necessarily granted the Duke power when he pressed it.

Of course, CF has eluded to another button, so we'll have another data point later on today.

[tyketime]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

FYI, both PF and I failed to unvote as well.

And so are you aware of any negative consequence for failing/not participating in the Test?

[Barkeep49]

I'm going to take a contrary view and say that Zinto was the Duke because of the button press and that GE "won" the Day 1 and became evil. CF seems to have indicated that there won't be more "special" tests from his deadline post and so the wolves won't be able to gather any more insight into roles, nor can we as we'll have lost one villager and eliminated 1 wolf.

Vote GE

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by tyketime

And so are you aware of any negative consequence for failing/not participating in the Test?

No.

[tyketime]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

No.

Just a thought: suppose if you don't participate in the test, any chance your vote doesn't actually count? Unfortunately, both PF & Pass split their vote, so it would not have materially changed the vote. Just seems to me with the emphasis on testing, there should be some negative consequenc to not participating.

I need to look at Day 1 non-testers.

[tyketime]

Originally Posted by tyketime

Just a thought: suppose if you don't participate in the test, any chance your vote doesn't actually count? Unfortunately, both PF & Pass split their vote, so it would not have materially changed the vote. Just seems to me with the emphasis on testing, there should be some negative consequenc to not participating.

I need to look at Day 1 non-testers.

Bah. Day 1 test was to vote. Chubby & Marc were the two non-participants. No way to confirm yet.

[PackerFanatic]

No consequences on my end either, as I fully expected. I am still of the mind that he was simply introducing new mechanics and it wasn't as big of a deal as people were making it out to be.

[Julio Riddols]

I wonder if pushing the button gave someone else a wolf cube. Maybe Zinto was the duke all along and it was just a lucky guess by the wolf cube carrier to pick someone with a role. Maybe it was revenge for Zinto pushing the button that turned the murderer into a wolf.

[Marc Vaughan]

I'm going to hold off pressing until later in case there are 'additional testing duties' required .....

[PackerFanatic]

I don't think we can press the button yet anyway - it sounded like it wasn't going to be dropped until later (like yesterday)

[Autumn]

I don't think we have much more to go on yet than D2 voting. And I dobut that a seer, if we have one, would have scanned a top vote getter. So I'm going to go ahead and look at our other candidate from yesterday.

VOTE RAIDERS ARMY

[mckerney]

Just a quick safety reminder, remember your logical paradoxes.

"This statement is false."
"Disobey this order."
"Does a set of all sets contain itself?"
"Could Jesus microwave a burrito so hot that not even he could eat it?"

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by tyketime

Bah. Day 1 test was to vote. Chubby & Marc were the two non-participants. No way to confirm yet.

To the best of my knowledge I suffered no consequence for no day one testing, aside from the vote not counting due to it not being cast and all.

[bhlloy]

Vote Britrock

I'm sticking with my gut on this one. His day 1 was passive-aggressive, his day 2 was just odd. Around all day but wouldn't vote or break the tie until a couple minutes before deadline.

The other direction I'd go would be RA just to clear up day 2, but I don't get any kind of Wolfy feel from him.

[britrock88]

You're dealing with a first-time player, a VV. All I've tried to do is explain what I thought were CF's analogies between Portal and this version of the WW game.

Meanwhile, bhlloy switched his vote to prevent the tie that would have, in all likelihood, saved a villager, and has been fairly misleading in comments throughout.

VOTE BHLLOY

[britrock88]

Also, for today, there's another button, but there's also a storage cube that we can use. Does anyone know where the cube might be? Who might have it? How we can obtain it? Whether pressing the button is worthwhile? Etc.

[tyketime]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

...I voted for you 1) because of the timing of your vote yesterday, the 8th, yes I said 8th. That's #8. You'll understand why I'm repeating later. Just because it spread the vote out more...

There seemed to be some banter back and forth as to whether his seemingly random pick on the 8th vote was actually some sort of coded message. This seems to confirm for me that there was something more going on. As far as how to interpret it, I have a few ideas:

Player #8 = bitrock88 (boy - sure seems like a lot of 8's there)

The 8th vote cast on Day 1 was from bhlloy against goldeneagle (#146).

Here was Jackal's initial mention of 8:

Originally Posted by The Jackal

In a day that's hard to analyze, I'm voting for him mostly because he placed the 8th vote on a person (me, call it subconscious revenge if you like) when two others had two. It's hardly much considering some are still arguing that there may not have even been wolves yesterday.

Since we know The Jackal was good, I'm inclined to think he was trying to tell the rest of us something. Between the two above, seems like more than a coincidence that Jackal mentions 8 three times - same number as bitrock in player roster. But I also readily admit that bhlloy's late move (with a couple of other votes still remaining) raises a flag for me.

For now, though - I'll go with the number theory:

VOTE BITROCK88

[tyketime]

Just an FYI: I'm taking my boys to see The Avengers tonight, so I will not be around at the deadline. But should be home after work for a bit to see what has transpired. With my new job, I can't bring laptop to work, so I only have phone access to the forums during the day.

[bhlloy]

If it ends up between myself and britrock I would ask who is more likely to be the wolf - the person who makes the high profile vote or the person who avoids doing so at all cost?

I didn't realize you were a first time player however. That does make me feel bad about getting on your back so soon

[Marc Vaughan]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

4) Yeah, missing two votes isn't great. Particularly when combined with a self-vote, self-unvote combo. Meta-gamery tells me that MV is more likely to be a villager than not but I would like to be able to prod him into action. And a vote that actually sticks.
Vote Marc Vaughan

Yayyy to keeping up my standards and getting proposed for a lynching - I really should change my deoderant

I didn't vote first day because I was somewhere over the atlantic and the second day I saw no reason to as we have no information to go on really - personally I'm not a big believer in random culling for the shits and giggles of it ... work on information, not fear - as time goes on we'll work out how things are operating and then can make proper decisions.

(or alternatively we can just kill each other off in the meantime for random amusement of each other )

Vote Narcizo

[JAG]

I think Autumn should be in the discussion today. Here's what we know about him:

D1:
a. He voted for KWhit (unknown) then switched to Jackal (villager, though he didn't really have a choice but to vote him in self-defense since the other player with 3 votes was GE who had voted Jackal.)
b. Was voted for by known villager Zinto (villager) and two unkowns in PackerFanatic and Darth Vilus.
c. When the vote was 3-3-3 Jackal-Autumn-GE, Jackal (villager) and GE (unknown) received additional votes, Autumn did not.

D2:
a. Voted for Jackal (villager). Granted so did half the people playing...

More than the voting stuff that has some somewhat negative points for him, I don't feel like villager Autumn puts his vote on RA and gives the explanation he did. I have some mild suspicions of other people, but it was my feeling from that vote that made me want to take a look at him more closely. I'm not fully set on this, but I feel it's my best lead at the moment.

Vote Autumn

[Marc Vaughan]

Originally Posted by tyketime

Just an FYI: I'm taking my boys to see The Avengers tonight, so I will not be around at the deadline. But should be home after work for a bit to see what has transpired. With my new job, I can't bring laptop to work, so I only have phone access to the forums during the day.

No one is allowed to vote for tyketime now - he obviously has awesome taste in films and therefore is by default a good guy

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Marc Vaughan

No one is allowed to vote for tyketime now - he obviously has awesome taste in films and therefore is by default a good guy

Along with a record-breaking amount of other people ;-)

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Day One
GoldenEagle (4) - Bhlloy (146), Narcizo (149), et al.
Jackal (4) - Raiders Army (153), Hoops (154), GoldenEagle (166), Tyketime (204)

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Day Two
Raiders Army (8) - Jackal (280), Jag (303), Narcizo (365), Ragone (371), mckerney (412), Barkeep (441), Passacaglia (447), Britrock (478)
Jackal (9) - Hoops (304), Packer (339), Autumn (353), GoldenEagle (355), Tyketime (382), KWhit (409), Darth Vilus (422), Raiders Army (427), Bhlloy (474)

These are what I take to be the relevant votes thus far.

Day 1: The votes for Golden Eagle occur before the run of votes that put The Jackal in the lead. Pass (at #189) and Ragone (at #205 or so) tied it up -- again, I think that's a move that's helpful for the village, so I don't suspect anything. Also remember that The Jackal attempted to change his vote to GoldenEagle, but couldn't.

Day 2: The common votes for The Jackal are Hoops, GoldenEagle, Tyketime, and Raiders Army. Bhlloy also came in with the vote-deciding switcheroo at the last minute. If I had to bet, those are the five wolves, right there.

Now, I say all this because I've noticed two of those five (Tyketime and Bhlloy) go against me at this point in today's vote. Better to share this information (which is all I'm working from) now. If the wolves can convince the village to lynch a VV, it's great for them, as it gives them an opportunity to night-kill a roled villager. And by explaining fully now, there's no real reason for the wolves to come after me (the admitted self-interested part of this).

Since bhlloy only has my vote, I will throw my support behind one of the others I suspect. Barkeep has voted GoldenEagle and Autumn has voted RaidersArmy. Only because Autumn doesn't appear to want to consider Day 1 voting, I'll go with Barkeep's decision.

UNVOTE BHLLOY
VOTE GOLDENEAGLE

[Marc Vaughan]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Along with a record-breaking amount of other people ;-)

What can I say - I have faith in the human race, we have lots of good guys

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by JAG

I think Autumn should be in the discussion today. Here's what we know about him:

D1:
a. He voted for KWhit (unknown) then switched to Jackal (villager, though he didn't really have a choice but to vote him in self-defense since the other player with 3 votes was GE who had voted Jackal.)
b. Was voted for by known villager Zinto (villager) and two unkowns in PackerFanatic and Darth Vilus.
c. When the vote was 3-3-3 Jackal-Autumn-GE, Jackal (villager) and GE (unknown) received additional votes, Autumn did not.

D2:
a. Voted for Jackal (villager). Granted so did half the people playing...

More than the voting stuff that has some somewhat negative points for him, I don't feel like villager Autumn puts his vote on RA and gives the explanation he did. I have some mild suspicions of other people, but it was my feeling from that vote that made me want to take a look at him more closely. I'm not fully set on this, but I feel it's my best lead at the moment.

Vote Autumn

I don't put much stock in any of that voting stuff (or anyone's voting stuff at this point), but you have a point about my vote for RA. Not that it makes me a wolf, but that it isn't my normal MO. I think it is the most useful vote I can make right now though.

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I'm going to take a contrary view and say that Zinto was the Duke because of the button press and that GE "won" the Day 1 and became evil. CF seems to have indicated that there won't be more "special" tests from his deadline post and so the wolves won't be able to gather any more insight into roles, nor can we as we'll have lost one villager and eliminated 1 wolf.

Vote GE

Your logic is not bad here but the conclusion is wrong. I didn't gain any special ability or turn into a werewolf from the tie. I expected some sort of punishment from the tie but it never happened. In fact, I am thinking that no matter what, there was not going to be a lynch on day 1.

I really have no clue what direction that I am going with my vote today.

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by britrock88

These are what I take to be the relevant votes thus far.

Day 1: The votes for Golden Eagle occur before the run of votes that put The Jackal in the lead. Pass (at #189) and Ragone (at #205 or so) tied it up -- again, I think that's a move that's helpful for the village, so I don't suspect anything. Also remember that The Jackal attempted to change his vote to GoldenEagle, but couldn't.

Day 2: The common votes for The Jackal are Hoops, GoldenEagle, Tyketime, and Raiders Army. Bhlloy also came in with the vote-deciding switcheroo at the last minute. If I had to bet, those are the five wolves, right there.

Now, I say all this because I've noticed two of those five (Tyketime and Bhlloy) go against me at this point in today's vote. Better to share this information (which is all I'm working from) now. If the wolves can convince the village to lynch a VV, it's great for them, as it gives them an opportunity to night-kill a roled villager. And by explaining fully now, there's no real reason for the wolves to come after me (the admitted self-interested part of this).

Since bhlloy only has my vote, I will throw my support behind one of the others I suspect. Barkeep has voted GoldenEagle and Autumn has voted RaidersArmy. Only because Autumn doesn't appear to want to consider Day 1 voting, I'll go with Barkeep's decision.

UNVOTE BHLLOY
VOTE GOLDENEAGLE

Do you really think all five wolves (if there are five, I don't think we have a number yet) would vote for the same player on Day 2? That makes no sense. I will grant you that one of the five is most likely a wolf but there is no way all the wolves would vote the same way on day 2.

[CrimsonFox]

For the rest of this test. You are entirely on your own.

>*CHIRP*<

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Marc Vaughan

I didn't vote first day because I was somewhere over the atlantic and the second day I saw no reason to as we have no information to go on really - personally I'm not a big believer in random culling for the shits and giggles of it ... work on information, not fear - as time goes on we'll work out how things are operating and then can make proper decisions.

The problem with this thinking Marc is that voting potentially yields some useful information about other players, as well as usually being the only way to get rid of wolves. By refusing to vote, you have denied us information about how to classify you and you dodged a chance to possibly vote for a wolf, which usually gives the village its best info outside of seer scans.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Marc Vaughan

I didn't vote first day because I was somewhere over the atlantic and the second day I saw no reason to as we have no information to go on really - personally I'm not a big believer in random culling for the shits and giggles of it ... work on information, not fear - as time goes on we'll work out how things are operating and then can make proper decisions.

Vote Narcizo

People have to vote or there's absolutely no chance of getting any information. Where else are you going to get enough information to find the wolves? If you choose not to vote then you're helping the wolves. If you're a wolf and you don't vote then you get to badger people about why they voted like this or that while you don't have to defend yourself.

Voting seems a bit fragmented at moment. I'll have a quick check through of the voting and probably move my vote to a candidate.

[PackerFanatic]

I don't necessarily think RA is a wolf, but I think he might lead to the most information gleaned by his lynching - hopefully

VOTE RAIDERS ARMY

[Julio Riddols]

I guess its time to start masturbating in case this is our only chance to be on our own.

Before I get out the carrot wax, I'll cast an early vote then probably change it later.

VOTE MCKERNEY

[Narcizo]

Jag > Narcizo at
a) explaining things and
b) not sounding pompous doing so.

[Julio Riddols]

This is mostly a random choice since I have no idea who might be what at this point. There really isn't much to go on.

[bhlloy]

I'm going to back off my play from the first couple days here, as I feel his play is probably just as easily explained by being a first time player as a wolf

Unvote britrock

Where to go after this, I'm not sure. RA would tell us everything there is to know about yesterday. Usually I would be pretty confident that he would have been scanned but who knows if we even have that role right now.

I think JAG's argument for Autumn is well thought out and I wouldn't mind exploring that direction a little more. It's the best I have the isn't "let's just lynch yesterday's runner up" which usually seems to get us into trouble

Vote autumn

[Darth Vilus]

Vote Autumn

Not gonna be around today because of work. Was thinking about voting him yesterday but I seriously doubted that he would have gathered any traction

[JAG]

Originally Posted by tyketime

There seemed to be some banter back and forth as to whether his seemingly random pick on the 8th vote was actually some sort of coded message. This seems to confirm for me that there was something more going on. As far as how to interpret it, I have a few ideas:

Player #8 = bitrock88 (boy - sure seems like a lot of 8's there)

The 8th vote cast on Day 1 was from bhlloy against goldeneagle (#146).

Here was Jackal's initial mention of 8:


Since we know The Jackal was good, I'm inclined to think he was trying to tell the rest of us something. Between the two above, seems like more than a coincidence that Jackal mentions 8 three times - same number as bitrock in player roster. But I also readily admit that bhlloy's late move (with a couple of other votes still remaining) raises a flag for me.

For now, though - I'll go with the number theory:

VOTE BITROCK88

That's very interesting if a bit out there for a theory. I guess as Devil's Advocate I would ask how Jackal would have additional information if he were a regular tester and would hope after he was the lynch choice he would've spelled things out more clearly before he died.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by britrock88

If I had to bet, those are the five wolves, right there.

Even taking myself out of the mix, I would bet every cent I own that the other four in that list are not all wolves.

This would be an example of "unified theory of werewolf creep" kicking in. If there is one thing that I've learned playing something like 60-70 of these games @ FOFC, it is that you should try to resist jumping too far ahead with your conclusions in these games. Get one wolf, then start reviewing the evidence to find the other ones. Just about anytime someone tries to get too tricky with thinking they have 2+ wolves it ends up being wrong.

[Narcizo]

As of #588

Marc Vaughan (1) - Narcizo (549)
GoldenEagle (1) - Barkeep (555), Britrock (576)
RaidersArmy (1) - Autumn (563), Packer (584)
Britrock (1) - tyketime (569)
Narcizo (1) - Narcizo (572)
Autumn (1) - Jag (573), Bhlloy (588)
Mckerney (1) - Julio Riddols (585)

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Julio Riddols

I guess its time to start masturbating in case this is our only chance to be on our own.

Before I get out the carrot wax, I'll cast an early vote then probably change it later.

VOTE MCKERNEY

From lemon chiffon to carrot wax - this has been an interesting journey so far, Julio.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Jag > Narcizo at
a) explaining things and
b) not sounding pompous doing so.

You guys saved me having to type up that post, so thanks

[hoopsguy]

I'm going to be very interested in hearing from Jackal about the "8" thing after the game, because it really does seem like some kind of a plant.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

As of #588

Marc Vaughan (1) - Narcizo (549)
GoldenEagle (1) - Barkeep (555), Britrock (576)
RaidersArmy (1) - Autumn (563), Packer (584)
Britrock (1) - tyketime (569)
Narcizo (1) - Narcizo (572)
Autumn (1) - Jag (573), Bhlloy (588)
Mckerney (1) - Julio Riddols (585)

MV voted for Narcizo; it was not a self vote.
It would be helpful to mark the people with multiple votes with (2) or whatever the appropriate number may be ... just saying

[hoopsguy]

Of the theories floated so far, I think I'll back Barkeep's one ... that there was something to be learned from the Day 1 proceedings.

VOTE GOLDENEAGLE

[Narcizo]

I thought it was a bit weird that Autumn voted Raiders as my argument against Raiders Army is pretty much word-for-word arguments he's used in the past. But I, of all people, know that people say and act out of character all the time in werewolf.

I think the Britrock/Bhlloy interaction is interesting as well but I read Britrock statements as being indicative of a first time player - all five people voting for Jackal being a wolf is one of the most out-there statements I read this side of Chubby.

[Narcizo]

God that vote tally was brimful of fail. Lets try again as of #598

Marc Vaughan (1) - Narcizo (549)
GoldenEagle (3) - Barkeep (555), Britrock (576), Hoops (597)
RaidersArmy (2) - Autumn (563), Packer (584)
Britrock (1) - tyketime (569)
Narcizo (1) - Marc Vaughan (572)
Autumn (3) - Jag (573), Bhlloy (588), Darth Vilius (589)
Mckerney (1) - Julio Riddols (585)

[GoldenEagle]

In fairness to bitrock, I think he is a new player so he probably didn't catch on to that. Of course, it wouldn't be a bad play by the wolves since all of us experienced players think that there is no way that would happen