A Wererolf, a Vampire, and a Villager Walk Into a Bar (Game Over, Vampires Win)

[timmae]

Well, that sucked.

[RendeR]

Indeed.

[RendeR]

OK, gotta get some actual work done, back later....

[Telle]

Originally Posted by timmae

Well, that sucked.

You REALLY need to explain yourself. I'm going to bed now so I'll read the explanation tomorrow... but really, WTF? You KNOW that ties can be very very bad. And it really looks like you actively moved your vote to henry to allow a situation to happen that would give you the ability to create a tie at the last second. Thankfully Chief was the self-sacrificing type. Who knows what the hell would have happened otherwise (well, maybe you know)

[bhlloy]

I am absolutely convinced there's a mechanism that rewards ties at this point... which means you presumably know that pretty well Telle considering you triggered it N1?

[timmae]

My bad reads were on lsg and my good reads on chief. No tie mechanism that I am aware of. I assume the 3 howls meant a protect order of some sort is in play but who knows.

[bhlloy]

I don't see how we can't at least start down the LSG and timmae line of questioning tomorrow, but I'm open to somebody else trying to make sense of what just happened... with 2 of the 4 that claimed confirmed vanilla, LSG and GE aren't looking great right now.

I'm very interested to go back and look at when timmae posted and about what now. Given the known effect of a tie, I just don't understand that vote at the end.

[bhlloy]

I just went back and looked through the last page... I can think of 2 reasonable scenarios at this point

1) timmae is trying to watch the world burn and create ties
2) timmae and LSG are teammates and baddies

I mean 2 feels too good to be true this early, but I'm struggling to come up with anything else reasonable. Anyone got a better read?

[timmae]

I could be way off but I don't like anyone sitting on LSG. Chief seemed to be vanilla wolf at worst a baddie at best. I had autumn, chief, render, ge and bhlloy on my good list. I want to here from render and my suspicion lies with him and whoever voted on lsg. Just my gut feel right now.

[timmae]

You are starting to look suspicious bhlloy. I guarantee 100% i am not a baddie. I would recommend you look elsewhere unless you are on the bad side. Then try ro railroad me.

[timmae]

vote render

[bhlloy]

why RendeR?

[bhlloy]

vote LSG

One of the more no-brainer votes I'll have I think, pending new information

[timmae]

He could have helped the village but didnt.. i will reread but i dont remember him backing chief hard. If they were both wolves now that would be a team that would fight hard together.

[timmae]

Sorry.. wolves in lieu of village. You get my drift.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by timmae

He could have helped the village but didnt.. i will reread but i dont remember him backing chief hard. If they were both wolves now that would be a team that would fight hard together.

I confirmed everything that I knew to be true. Not sure where you get anything else from my posts.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by timmae

Sorry.. wolves in lieu of village. You get my drift.

Try not to Drift, this game is confusing enough.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by timmae

He could have helped the village but didnt.. i will reread but i dont remember him backing chief hard. If they were both wolves now that would be a team that would fight hard together.

assuming you are talking D2, why would they fight hard together? RendeR presumably had no idea what CR was at that point. Don't get where you are going here at all.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

assuming you are talking D2, why would they fight hard together? RendeR presumably had no idea what CR was at that point. Don't get where you are going here at all.

This.


I have no idea what CR was until he was killed after the flip on night 1. I did not want to play into whatever scheme he had going. Turns out there was no scheme and I was wrong, sort of, I voted for LSG.

[timmae]

Ok, after sleeping on it and thinking things through I think we (wolfies) are in pretty good shape. Really good shape if we have a seer and some info. Worst case in my mind is that render is a wise wolf and picked me to look at. At any rate, we are down to 8. Hopefully at worst we have 3 villagers or 2 villagers and 2 vamps. Since no one has any info on vamps (even a villager who was a vamp D1 would likely indicate their presence since they also need to get rid of the vamps to win) maybe we have 3 villagers. It is likely 5 against 3 unless existence of a vamp is exposed. It would be crazy if both vamps stayed vamps. If villager seeking revenge is in play then after tonight we could be down to 3 against 2. Then after N3 we would be 1 to 0. Win. Am I an idiot or are we ok?

Note, my two solids are no longer here but I have a small trust group in lsg, telle and ge right now.

My evil empire group right now consists of render, bhlloy, brit and henry.

I could still be an idiot though so let's discuss all of this.

[timmae]

Wait, maybe N3 it is 2 to 1 and D4 it would be a win?

[timmae]

Oh, and sorry chief... you deserved to live but at least we didn't lose a strength role.

[Telle]

So, still not even a whiff of explanation from timmae on that attempt to create a tie last night. It's obvious to me that it was intentional. He moved his vote over to someone with no votes, but didn't give any big push for others to follow his lead. I actually forgot about that vote and focused on the existing tie, thinking RendeR had the deciding vote. RendeR then voted for LoneStarGirl. At 9:59 timmae suddenly moved his vote to Chief, creating a tie, with no explanation. If Chief hadn't self-sacrificed, who knows where we'd be right now?

Maybe I shouldn't harp on this so much since I created the first tie and so people may think I'm in on whatever nefarious thing went on last night, but timmae's move last night was seriously messed up and I can see zero reason for him doing it that would be on the side of good.

Also let's not lose sight of RendeR's "gag order". Chief said he had no such order himself. We learned that Chief was a good guy, so he had no reason to lie about anything he said. If RendeR's still a bad guy, him letting there be suspicion on Chief works in his favor.

[EagleFan]

As of post 573:

RedneR 1 - timmae (561)
LoneStarGirl 1 - bhlloy (563)

[timmae]

If I didn't move my vote to chief then it would have been chief's unvote that created a tie. Both occurred simultaneously and I actually expected some other last minute snipping to occur also.

My move to henry at 8:46pm was an attempt to allow people to move off of chief for an option other than lsg if they wanted. henry was an unknown and suspect in my mind at that point. Telling people to move at that point would be excuses for baddies that could have shifted onto a henry-wolf at that point of chief was lying about his villager role. No one moved so I moved back to what I then assumed was a worst case vanilla wolf in chief. Chief exposed a possible villager RendeR at 8:36pm but RendeR's weird response came at 8:53pm, probably too late to get a railroad going on him.

[timmae]

I seriously can't wait for EF's recap of this whole mess... gotta know his thoughts on what he's created!

[Telle]

That doesn't make any sense at all. Why would a vanilla wolf purposely create a tie? Especially after we saw the mess the first one caused after D1? Him unvoting was him self-sacrificing to disable the tie you created. Chief's posts #522 and #527 confirm this, and as a vanilla wolf he had zero reason to lie.

And just in case you want to claim that Chief unvoted before you voted... You first moved your vote to create the tie in #515, but messed up the formatting. He saw your vote move, and unvoted LSG in #518, thus putting himself in the lead. You then fixed your formatting in #520. It's not certain but is likely that EF would have allowed the #515 vote to stand if it was pointed out to him since it's obvious you were trying to make it bold but just had a typo.

[timmae]

Truly I thought that Chief and RendeR were still playing some shenanigans of some sort. Maybe both being bad and trying to lure our seer was a thought as well as a contained wolf possibility. Not sure any of it makes sense now but I sure as heck didn't expect chief to claim something with 30 minutes to go that he easily could have claimed when questioned very early in the day. We'll see what chief's reasoning is for stating he would not out anyone else (post #394) and then doing just that late in the day.

I totally get why people would question the heck out of my play this game, you all should. We need discussion to win this.

[britrock88]

A series of unfortunate events.

Originally Posted by Telle

As of #482:
5 LoneStarGirl - timmae (352), britrock88 (440), bhlloy (442), henry296 (448), Chief Rum (459)
3 Chief Rum - GoldenEagle (382), Autumn (408), Telle (410), LoneStarGirl (478)

Yet to vote: RendeR

It was actually 5-4 at this point. But is a little typo like that going to lead to anything serious?

Originally Posted by timmae

Reread henry296's D2 and not liking it.

Unvote lonestargirl

Vote henry296

Oh. Hmm. We get a rationale for the vote change. This ties the count up at 4-4-1, though timmae might think it's 4-3-1 based on the tally.

Originally Posted by RendeR

*flips coin*


VOTE LSG

This puts LSG back in the lead at 5-4-1. Or 5-3-1 if you didn't look at Telle's tally closely.

Originally Posted by timmae

[b]Unvote henry 296

Vote chief rum/B]

This vote misfires because the missing bracket means the vote isn't bolded--it's still 5-4-1 LSG. But if you read the words and (not unreasonably) assume it counts, you may think it's now 5-5 or 5-4 LSG.

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

UNVOTE LONE STAR GIRL

CR nobly self-sacrifices... prematurely. This unvote actually ties the tally at 4-4-1. But the cascade of little slip-ups means he could see this as making it 5-4 CR.

Originally Posted by timmae

Unvote henry296

Vote chiefrum

Timmae makes it count this time, and the tally has now actually flipped to 5-4 CR.

Deadline comes, CR's good, etc.

Originally Posted by timmae

My bad reads were on lsg and my good reads on chief. No tie mechanism that I am aware of.

About an hour deadline, timmae comes up with this stunner. It's a 180 from the indications he gave in his voting pattern.

[britrock88]

Haven't heard much of anything from henry, GE, or LSG since deadline. Timmae's chaotic evening sticks out the most to me at this point, but I'm willing to pay closer attention to the silent types as the day goes on.

VOTE timmae

[timmae]

I think brit is a good player and this post smells very wolfy to me. I'd love your take on render brit, if nothing more than to create leads for future days. I already explained the last bit that you say is a 180 degree turn and I think a good brit picks up on this type of thing usually. I think he is trying to build a case I am bad, which I will again state that I am not.

I'm gonna step back for a bit because I do not want to monopolize this for everyone... I feel like my play may have done just that and have to rethink how I play in the future. However, I will be reading intently and will respond to any questions asked.

[henry296]

We had 4 people claim vanilla wolf immediately and 2 are now dead. I'm guessing 4-5 vanilla wolves is all we have. Therefore, I find it unlikely that only the vanilla wolves claimed it. Since GoldenEagle was the next to jump on the bandwagon once he saw the trend, I'm starting with him as my 1st suspect.

Vote GoldenEagle

[EagleFan]

As of post 582:

RedneR 1 - timmae (561)
LoneStarGirl 1 - bhlloy (563)
timmae 1 - britrock88 (580)
GoldenEagle 1 - henry296 (582)

[Telle]

Well I'm seeing three areas of great suspicion that should be investigated:
1. timmae's last-minute tie making maneuvers last night
2. RendeR and his "gag order"
3. The remaining pool of "vanilla wolf" claimers, GoldenEagle and LoneStarGirl

[Telle]

And apparently I'm not the only one thinking along these lines, at least partially, since all four of them are the current recipients of votes, with one apiece.

[LoneStarGirl]

Originally Posted by Telle

Well I'm seeing three areas of great suspicion that should be investigated:
1. timmae's last-minute tie making maneuvers last night
2. RendeR and his "gag order"
3. The remaining pool of "vanilla wolf" claimers, GoldenEagle and LoneStarGirl

I know I am a vanilla wolf. And I do believe that there is one more out there besides myself, but I think that person is keeping it quiet.

vote Goldeneagle

[RendeR]

I think Bitrock has the right of it on Timmae. His reasoning is flimsy at best but his actual maneuvers look very distinctly to be caging a wolf.

VOTE TIMMAE

[britrock88]

Thinking of pulling some post content summaries together.

[EagleFan]

As of post 588:

timmae 2 - britrock88 (580), RendeR (587)
RendeR 1 - timmae (561)
LoneStarGirl 1 - bhlloy (563)
GoldenEagle 1 - henry296 (582)

[britrock88]

GE, LSG, and Telle with no votes.

[britrock88]

Going by remaining players in ascending order of posts. First up is GoldenEagle.

Noteworthy posts:

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

VOTE bhlloy

I just can't vote for anyone else at this point. I think some of the movement and early votes can still provide us information down the road.

I am willing to change this vote if he checks in.

Plus, you never know, we may get really lucky and hit a villager.

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

It seems like LSG is waiting to vote which is note worthy.

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

This is similar to what I am thinking. I will obviously move my vote if bhlloy is not a candidate but I am not sure why everyone moved off of him so quickly.

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

UNVOTE bhlloy
VOTE henry296

I want to see where things go from here and force those who have an inconsequential vote at the moment to make some decisions.

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

Maybe it is not to late to get something going on Telle.

UNVOTE henry296
VOTE Telle

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

My vote was never solid on henry. I just wanted to see what the movement looked like. I find Telle's reasoning of defending the no show vote very strange. I think she pushed that narrative a bit too hard.

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

VOTE CHEIF RUM

Two reasons:
1. The fact that no else has claimed they switched sides.
2. He set on his vote at deadline and didn't anything. That essentially became a wasted vote. We can say the same for LSG.

Furthermore, if CR was a villager, it implies that the villagers do not know who each other are. I guess that is possible. Maybe the villagers have to unlock some sort of condition to get to communicate. Either way, it smells funny.

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

I am thinking now that my night 1 scan of a villager triggered all this and not the tie on D1. If there were only 2 baddies and hit one on n1, it is really not fair .

His most consistent negative read has been on LSG. (Have to say I'm enjoying the family dynamics in this game!)

Voted bhlloy while he was absent, but dinged Telle for defending making the same vote.

The most interesting thing to me is that he hasn't had all that much to say about being the D1 seer. I did inquire, and he said he didn't get a result, but that's all we know.

[britrock88]

Next up is henry296.

Originally Posted by henry296

I can't imagine just 1 vampire, so either 2 and 2 or probably 3 villagers if no vampires.

Originally Posted by henry296

Day 1 is just a random guess anyway. I'd like to know if a potential no-show has a valuable role so we can move on and realize we don't have that person rather than guessing.

Originally Posted by henry296

Vote Bhlloy

Originally Posted by henry296

unvote bhlloy

As I stated, I was only voting for him because he was inactive. I'm actually now leaning Telle since she was violently opposing me which makes me believe we are on opposite sides. To me, the showdown should be between us because we pushed the opposite agenda which means that one of is likely bad and it isn't me.

Originally Posted by henry296

Since heal happens after both attacks I think it would help against either villager or vampire. For now I’m assuming we have both.

I’m wondering if going back to bhlloy could work because trying to understand if telle was trying to protect him or render was throwing him under the bus was part of the strategy last night. I realize the same could be said of me, but I’m not voting for myself.

Originally Posted by henry296

I’m not moving to Render since we have the same point of view. I’m willing to sacrifice myself for the information to the team. I have no role so I’m not a big loss.

Originally Posted by henry296

We had 4 people claim vanilla wolf immediately and 2 are now dead. I'm guessing 4-5 vanilla wolves is all we have. Therefore, I find it unlikely that only the vanilla wolves claimed it. Since GoldenEagle was the next to jump on the bandwagon once he saw the trend, I'm starting with him as my 1st suspect.

Vote GoldenEagle

Useful speculation about the distribution of players in the game, which I always appreciate.

Talks about avoiding voting out an inactive player, but changes direction and votes bhlloy.

Draws a distinction between himself and Telle/Render initially in terms of how D1 transpired, but comes around to seeing himself on the same side of things as Render.

[britrock88]

LoneStarGirl is next to round out the 25-30 post group.

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

I am confident bhlloy is going to show up and knock our socks off with his insight into this game thus far so I’m going to refrain from voting for him until he emerges. But if it’s not soon he’s getting my vote!

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

I thought I voted earlier but I forgot the whole bold thing

Vote bhlloy

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

The fact that Telle was adamant that we don’t vote for Bhlloy and that Bhlloy did a throwaway vote against me makes me think one (or both) are on the bad side of this one.

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

so if CR went from bad to good then its a solid assumption the entire game just flipped around. Which means a good guy or two are now on the evil side of things.

On day one (or two) I thought Brittrock was a good guy and even had him followed since that was my skill. Unfortunately I lost that skill and learned nothing from it as I am now a vanilla wolf.

Following that logic

vote brittrock

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

This is how I understood it as well since my action didn't go through.

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

I was going to make the same comment. Telle was a fireball the first two hours and now she is acting more like.... me.

Does that mean she was a baddie defending her honor vehemently to prevent being killed and now she is a goodie and can relax?

Or is she bad now and wanting to keep out of the limelight?

Originally Posted by Telle

WTF? You're TRYING to create a tie? I need to re-read the ruleset.. is there a role that thrives on chaos?

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

This is worth remembering

Another absentee non-voter turned voter. Funny.

Has a read on CR's Day 2 reveal that has aged well, notwithstanding the vote on me .

Indicates that she was the town watch, reinforces the idea that N1 actions weren't processed in light of the tie.

Also has a fairly strong and consistent negative read on Telle. When I get to Telle, it might be worth pressing the tie creation, avoidance, and opinion points a little more.

[britrock88]

I'm next, as one of two players right around 50 posts, but I'm certainly not qualified to read myself.

Taking a break before resuming with bhlloy.

[bhlloy]

I think I can’t get past what happened last night, and we have to have a read on LSG or Timmae to make sense of it. As LSG seems be Teflon still, I’ll go in the other direction. There’s just no defending his voting pattern last night IMO

Unvote LSG
Vote Timmae

[timmae]

No way that the villagers could be as gutsy to land all three of their votes on me. Something is off on my reads.

[EagleFan]

As of post 596:

timmae 3 - britrock88 (580), RendeR (587), bhlloy (595)
RedneR 1 - timmae (561)
GoldenEagle 1 - henry296 (582)

[LoneStarGirl]

I could have sworn I voted for GoldenEagle a few hours ago. I remember because I heard a disgusted yell from the other room when he found out.

[timmae]

With so little info from today I am utterly confused. Brit and Bhlloy's questioning seem to indicate they may be wolves. Render's D2 I do not understand at all so my vote will stay there. EF has created a monster.

I am away for most, if not all of the remainder of the night. I am a wolf and you shouldn't lynch me but I get the mounting evidence I gave you all to do so. The only one I have a read on right now is GE as a wolf.

[LoneStarGirl]

vote goldeneagle

since it got lost