WW LXVI: Money Money Money (Game Over!)

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

thanks... wish it were 8 and not 7.

it does say 7 or 8

[claphamsa]

Well I hope its 8

[claphamsa]

well gnight all....

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

thanks... wish it were 8 and not 7.

Once we have a few less players, meaning I can process the night cycle more quickly, it'll go to 8. As it is now I need to leave more time for me to get to work.

[Barkeep49]

PMs have been sent. Please remember that it does NOT include any money you have tied up in CDs. Merely what you have available to your on Night 2/Day 3

[hoopsguy]

For whoever has the seer, here are some suggestions:
1.) Live through the night
2.) I understand if you want to scan me, but I would like to see Saldana or Tyrith scanned. Saldana would let us know if there was any real pressure on the wolves today and is probably the "right" choice in my mind. It would help provide some clarity tomorrow, either by revealing a wolf or telling us not to rely too heavily on today's voting patterns.

[path12]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

christina aguilera?

Really?? I took a quick look this morning but I was at work but I could have sworn that lady was around 40. I'll have to check again.

[path12]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Reaaalllyyy....

Considering I KNOW I'm not a wolf, I'm going to be double, triple, quadruple voting tonight. I've got 46k right now.

Where'd the extra grand come from?

[Alan T]

Boy, won't Path feel silly once he catches up?

[path12]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Boy, won't Path feel silly once he catches up?

I spend the better part of my life feeling rather silly. I'm getting used to it though.

[path12]

Weird deadline, no? I thought Mau had a chance to off saldana until he switched to SnDvls. Props on the exit routines though.

[path12]

I'll be damned. That was Xtina. My bad.

[Tyrith]

Bleh. That's what I have to say about the vote.

I have no objections to a scan, and objecting to a scan would be a really silly idea, anyway. The alternative solution is to scan hoops and see if we can trust his recommendations, although that would probably be personally bad for me because there's a slight chance he comes after me tomorrow, although saldana seems more likely -- and his logic on saldana is sound. If he's going to be the main voice we follow for this game I'd just like to know if we can trust it, although 25k is a lot of money to pay for that privilege.

[Tyrith]

The reality of this game just hit me. This game is a lot more simple than I thought. I'm going to wait until tomorrow morning to say what I'm thinking, but if we play smart I think this game shouldn't be too hard.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Regarding formatting my PM correctly, I actually didn't format it correctly, but Barkeep responded back saying that he would take it that time just in the future to please format it with the service and amount in the title.

That sucks. I was the one who didn't format correctly--because I sent it in with my Night 0 post, which is full of actions Barkeep did take into consideration. You would think he wouldn't ignore this one.

I was fine with his decision until I saw this. That sucks. So I guess some guys get a pass, and others no, huh? I am of half a mind to just leave this game right now.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

It's about time for me to get out of here for a few hours, possibly until after deadline. It appears we won't have any seer reveals today, so I'm just left with my gut instinct.

Chief seemed to jump in the middle of a fray that he wasn't really involved with yesterday to target Hoops pretty hard. Then at night Lathum (who was also questioning Hoops yesterday) was night killed, followed by Chief's follow up vote on Hoops just for a funny feel before night results were up.

I fully understand Chief had to vote because of his job at the time he did, but a few things about what happened last night nagged at me a bit, so I'll go in Chief's direction with a vote today. Nothing really solid, just playing off of a gut feeling.

Vote Chief Rum

I know it's just a gut feeling, so I don't take anything from this. But I didn't "jump" into anything. I wasn't taking any other post into consideration except hoops' post. In fact, I don't think I had even finished reading the thread when I posted my first thoughts on hoops' post about warning wolves to not bid on him.

My follow up was, as you say, because of my need to put in an early vote, and because I didn't learn anything to dissuade me from Day One vote.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Don't ask me, ask Chief Rum, my pm says 46,500. DaddyT is going to get $6,500 from me.

Exsqueeze me?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

The question is "why Lathum" for the Night 1 kill?
- did they see something suggesting he won the seer?
- did they see him as a threat going into Day 2?
- did they think that killing him would set up a chain reaction that was beneficial to them?
- did they think that they would profit directly from his death, via beneficiary?

I don't know the answer to this, but I'm leaning towards voting Saldana right now working on the "presumed beneficiary/get money" strategy.

Look, I'm not saying I am even convinced one way or another on hoops, and I think it's very likely I am barking up the wrong tree.

All that said, did it not occur to anyone that hoops' theory of Lathum winning the seer would be a very convenient way to hide that the wolves may have won the seer? How would one hide that the wolves won the seer when we're encouraging "friendly" seers to come out? Well, by suggesting that the night kill won the seer, of course. And especially if that person named you as his beneficiary, thus allowing you to "fudge" the numbers all you want with impunity.

Moving past this for a second--I think there was little reason Lathum was targeted on Night One except for probably the most common reason good veteran players are killed on Night One--they are usually dangerous enemies to keep around. Lathum was a veteran target--that's my guess anyway.

[Chief Rum]

BTW, I will be around tomorrow evening for the deadline, so I will not need to vote early (although, of course, I won't be around most of the day, as I will be at work).

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Enough people have checked in by now for me to share this info, I suppose.

I think that Lathum won the seer last night. I could say more, but I would have to go into some details about my inherit PM to do so and I don't think there is a ton of value in doing so.

I was hoping that this wasn't the case and that someone was going to come forward with seer info, forcing me to re-evaluate the numbers. But at this point I'm basically operating under the idea that we aren't going to have any further seer info to help with our choice today.

Oh, I quoted the wrong post two posts above. This was the post I was referring to--hoops' theory for why the seer-winner from Night One didn't come forward.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

The reality of this game just hit me. This game is a lot more simple than I thought. I'm going to wait until tomorrow morning to say what I'm thinking, but if we play smart I think this game shouldn't be too hard.

[claphamsa]

I am also intersted in seeing this....

[Barkeep49]

Today the latest among you to die is saldana. Saldana was Rich. Is he still Rich, even though he's dead? That seems like a question for a philosopher. You make a note to endow a chair at a university so you can get an answer. You need no professor to tell you that his beneficiary is Mr. Wednesday

Today's services:
Friend at the Bank: Learn amounts all players have in the bank
Bodyguard Firm: May choose 1 player to be protected from attacks. May be used any night.
Private Investigator: Will learn the side (Cutthroat or Rich) of a player on each of two nights. Must be used night 3 & 4.
Thief: May choose to rob a player’s on hand OR Bank Account. May be used any night, but is not given to your beneficiary upon death.

[hoopsguy]

Interesting night kill. They knew he had less money than the norm, based on him spending an extra 10K to put in a vote. It also tells us that the vote yesterday sucked, even without the benefit of a seer scan.

[Schmidty]

Well, that freaking sucks. I just wasted $25,000 on scanning saldana at hoops suggestion, and now he's dead. I do not like that ONE BIT. I feel like I was railroaded, and as I said before, even if he wasn't already a wolf, there's a darned good chance he is now.


VOTE HOOPSGUY

[Schmidty]

Sorry, that was a bit of an emotional vote, but hate the idea of getting mind-fucked, and it pisses me off if true.

[hoopsguy]

Schmidty, I'm a smidge surprised that I'm not a wolf at this point. Because I've got a pile of money on my hands. I put in a 20K bid yesterday on the Telecomm, figuring that I either win it or they have to go high to take it from me. They did. I had money that matured last night so I'm sitting on a healthy amount of cash.

I assume the same is true of MrW. So we are both going to be targets going forward for conversion. But I haven't been offered a bribe yet, so for now I'm still playing as a member of the Rich.

If people see fit to vote for me today I'll do my best to make good decisions with distributing my money before I'm bankrupted. There is no way that I want the cash to disappear from the game when we are getting closer to the point where we can voluntarily end it.

[Alan T]

I won the telecomm bid yesterday. I bid I felt a modest amount on it with the idea that Hoops was bluffing and the wolves would know that he was bluffing. I also wasn't sure if Hoops was on our side or not. So I won the bid, and have elected to prevent the wolves from talking today.

[Alan T]

Barkeep, when does the telecomm go into efect? I didn't see any comment about it in the night write up.. I assume its in effect now?

[saldana]

damnit.

[Alan T]

Seems this morning is alot quieter than yesterday morning.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Barkeep, when does the telecomm go into efect? I didn't see any comment about it in the night write up.. I assume its in effect now?

The telecom ability would only be announced if everyone got PM rights

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

The telecom ability would only be announced if everyone got PM rights

ok, doesn't exactly answer my question, but I assume the answer is yes then.

[Tyrith]

Saldana dying sucks, but it happens. This game is like some people (I forget who and don't have time to look) were talking about earlier. We just need to keep the money circulating on our side. We need clears, desperately, but if we're about to day vote someone the proper play for them is to give away ALL of their money, to people we can trust, and, since that is going to be a short list and we don't want to overstack certain people, to everyone left in the game.

The absolute worst thing for us is to have money disappear in bankruptcy or to get burned up in extra votes that don't mean much. We have numbers, so as long as we keep the distribution of wealth mostly equal we will probably win. And if we can nail even one wolf, we win this game. It's just a matter of trading bodies for time for a little while as long as we keep the cash in the game. Your body really is secondary to your money.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Saldana dying sucks, but it happens. This game is like some people (I forget who and don't have time to look) were talking about earlier. We just need to keep the money circulating on our side. We need clears, desperately, but if we're about to day vote someone the proper play for them is to give away ALL of their money, to people we can trust, and, since that is going to be a short list and we don't want to overstack certain people, to everyone left in the game.

The absolute worst thing for us is to have money disappear in bankruptcy or to get burned up in extra votes that don't mean much. We have numbers, so as long as we keep the distribution of wealth mostly equal we will probably win. And if we can nail even one wolf, we win this game. It's just a matter of trading bodies for time for a little while as long as we keep the cash in the game. Your body really is secondary to your money.

But the problem is how do we get clears? Granted we've had some bad luck, in that the general thinking right now is that Lathum scanned someone, and Schmidty scanned saldana. But even if we finally get a night where neither the scanner nor the scannee die, we have to worry about lying and conversion.

[Passacaglia]

Also, I'm interested in how we can take advantage of the fact that the wolves can't PM each other. Best I can think of is to look for them trying to send covert clues to each other in the thread. Anyone have anything else to go on here?

[Tyrith]

And that night kill was a pretty astute move by the wolves. Hoops is starting to really spike my danger sense...these little manipulations don't seem to be getting us anywhere good.

*thinks for a moment*

Right now it seems like there are two options regarding hoops. He's either a wolf, or the wolves are doing an amazing job screwing us over in regards to what he's saying. The game so far--

Votes for Lathum. A called shot. Lathum is killed that night. Doesn't really say that much, except that the three vote run Lathum was the first post in causes the only minor controversy of the day, which involves me. But having Lathum disappear that night disarms that potential controversy, a little. Not much here.

But yesterday, hoops targets saldana. A fair choice, because his logic was moderately sound, because of the lathum-saldana relationship, and I admitted as such yesterday. However, after actually taking the time to let that thought roll around in my head for a bit, isn't that way too obvious? And I don't recall other circumstances in which lathum and saldana let their RL relationship bleed into how they play the game like that. Granted, yesterday we had nothing to go on, but that's a really small chance to go off of.

Which leads to last night, where hoops was able to direct the seer scan into a player of his choosing. We should have, and I should have, figured out at the time that this was an incredibly bad idea, for this exact scenario. We lost a scan, which is the only real way we have of clearing anyone till we hit a wolf, and is going to massively delay us. It also gets rid of someone who would have resisted hoops with more incentive than the rest of us.

Add all this up and I feel like we're being manipulated. And if he is a wolf he paid off 10k in goodwill bribes yesterday, just like Alan talked about, which I could see him doing. It'd be a perfect wolf tactic to lead out with hoops doing the dirty work, eventually to be sacrificed once we figured it out.

Thus I seal my fate, most likely, by saying that we should probably lynch hoops today. There's just too much circumstancial evidence for me to feel good about it. The wolves could be doing a great job of screwing with us. And it's quite hard for us to predict how the money flow affects wolf decision making -- but how this is interfering with our seer scans is maddening, and for yesterday that finger has been pointed.

I know my WW history, and how good you are at getting out of situations like these. I'll listen to you, but it'll probably take someone else to convince me unless you have something really good.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Also, I'm interested in how we can take advantage of the fact that the wolves can't PM each other. Best I can think of is to look for them trying to send covert clues to each other in the thread. Anyone have anything else to go on here?

Its kind of hard to have clues when hardly anyone has talked this morning.

I'm kind of waiting for Hoops to come back to the thread, would love to talk more about his play with the telecommunications bid. He said he bid 20k on it, which seems like a half-hearted bid on something that we had previously talked about as pretty important. The two options I saw that he had with that bid was either Go all out and bid high on it (which 20k isn't considering 3 different bids have been won for more than that so far), or bluff that you are going high on it and not bid on it at all and go elsewhere.

I bid on it as a safeguard, you can say trying to keep people honest, and when I won it I assumed he had just bluffed bidding on it. He said this morning that he did bid 20k on it though which is puzzling a little bit to me.

[Tyrith]

Pass, I'd imagine the wolves came up with a plan for today already, because they had to know this was coming. Subtle clues in the thread is probably too much work for a game like this, but it's possible they may have rigged some simple code to coordinate their targets.

[Passacaglia]

I'm not sure I follow the theory on hoops. Why would he suggest saldana as a scan, only to kill him that night? What would have happened if his other suggestion, Tyrith, was scanned? Or is that less important than the fact that he successfully diverted the scan away from him?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Pass, I'd imagine the wolves came up with a plan for today already, because they had to know this was coming. Subtle clues in the thread is probably too much work for a game like this, but it's possible they may have rigged some simple code to coordinate their targets.

I'll put on my "codebreaker" hat, just in case.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I'm not sure I follow the theory on hoops. Why would he suggest saldana as a scan, only to kill him that night? What would have happened if his other suggestion, Tyrith, was scanned? Or is that less important than the fact that he successfully diverted the scan away from him?

Oh, I think I'm starting to see it now. The idea is that he's trying to take away what might have been a cleared villager (I say might have been, since we're not sure how much we can trust it)? It still seems to me that if I were hoops and a wolf, I'd rather just argue that saldana isn't necessarily good, since we don't know if the person clearing him is good (I know that argument would have worked on me).

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I'm not sure I follow the theory on hoops. Why would he suggest saldana as a scan, only to kill him that night? What would have happened if his other suggestion, Tyrith, was scanned? Or is that less important than the fact that he successfully diverted the scan away from him?

I thought it was stated pretty heavily at least earlier in the thread yesterday that Hoops probably seemed like the logical choice for a scan yesterday. In the past Hoops has been very welcoming of a scan as well, stating that he would be happy to be cleared. Yesterday was a bit different than normal with him stating that he felt others should be scanned (Saldana and Tyrith). Unfortunatly for us, Schmidty listened to Hoops instead of to those of us who suggested Hoops be scanned.

Even with that said, I still am not going to jump to conclusions just yet. I would like to hear Hoops speak regarding the telecommunications bid as well as talk a bit about his thoughts of the night kill. It is unfortunate that he is a bit less active today in the discussion than yesterday, I have quite a few questions for him. I don't have to make any decision on my vote for today until close to 5pm EST from which point I am gone for the rest of the day. So plenty of time to talk over the issues.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Well, having come into some money, I'm going to begin by saying that I'll be going big on my bid for service today.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I think going forward, either hoops or I would probably be a good scan, notwithstanding the risk that either of us might be killed. hoops is probably safer than me, as he's had a night now to move his inheritance to the bank.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

But yesterday, hoops targets saldana. A fair choice, because his logic was moderately sound, because of the lathum-saldana relationship, and I admitted as such yesterday. However, after actually taking the time to let that thought roll around in my head for a bit, isn't that way too obvious? And I don't recall other circumstances in which lathum and saldana let their RL relationship bleed into how they play the game like that. Granted, yesterday we had nothing to go on, but that's a really small chance to go off of.

ok people have mentiooned this before..... what is their relationship?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

ok people have mentiooned this before..... what is their relationship?

I think Saldana is Lathum's ex-girlfriend or something like that.

[path12]

Saldana as a target, especially after knowing he's down money-wise after spending the extra cash on a vote makes little sense on the face of it. I certainly see the logic against hoops in his suggestions that sal be scanned -- however, those suggestions were made in thread, so obviously the cutthroats saw them also and might have seen an opportunity to frame.

It's crucial for the cutthroats not to be caught. If any of them are and are bankrupted, then we've got to have a money edge for day 4. So maybe either buying the scans or directing them to targets is a prime goal of theirs.

I guess what I'm saying is that I could go either way on hoops right now, but he's definitely on the short list for a vote today.

And crap, I need to name a new beneficiary now.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I think Saldana is Lathum's ex-girlfriend or something like that.

[Alan T]

Barkeep, how long are the wolves silenced until? Is it just today, or today and tonight?

My hope is that it is a full 24 hours, that way they can not pair up and get both the thief and friend at the bank services. That alone could pay for the costs of those services if they did.