WW XCV: Land of the Role Reveals GAME OVER - Page 12

PurdueBrad · 05-28-2009, 10:27 AM

Okay, EVERYONE, believe CR as seer. Disbelieving me simply screws us I believe.

So:

unbelieve PB as seer
believe CR as seer

PurdueBrad · 05-28-2009, 10:28 AM

Here is what will happen the next two days:

N2- CR and I get scans, I guard CR and BG guards me
N3- CR and I get scans, BG guards CR and I self protect

PurdueBrad · 05-28-2009, 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Okay, EVERYONE, believe CR as seer. Disbelieving me simply screws us I believe.

So:

unbelieve PB as seer
believe CR as seer

OOPS!

unbelieve PB as seer
believe CR as seer

PurdueBrad · 05-28-2009, 10:30 AM

Tyrith, AWESOME catch from the rules. Right now, my trust is:

CR

Tyrith

the rest of y'all

ALSO, to the other starting seer, I highly recommend a scan on CR from you tonight, just so we can attempt to align scans.

PurdueBrad · 05-28-2009, 10:37 AM

So, N2 should look like this: I scan, CR scans, BG protects me, I protect CR, and the other starting seer scans CR.

I have an idea for CR and I to coordinate our scans without necessarily announcing who we are scanning as well (so the wolves don't then nightkill our scan targets).

PurdueBrad · 05-28-2009, 10:38 AM

Holy crap, I feel like the fat, freckled, zitty, smelly girl on Prom Night. Somebody talk to me please.

saldana · 05-28-2009, 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

So, N2 should look like this: I scan, CR scans, BG protects me, I protect CR, and the other starting seer scans CR.

I have an idea for CR and I to coordinate our scans without necessarily announcing who we are scanning as well (so the wolves don't then nightkill our scan targets).

so you get to use both night actions in the same night? bold is mine.

PurdueBrad · 05-28-2009, 10:46 AM

Yes, I do

PurdueBrad · 05-28-2009, 10:48 AM

Damn, hit the button early. Yes, I get to use both each night which is why I played to get the BG role on day 1, I figure that it makes me a decent little weapon for a few days.

Tyrith · 05-28-2009, 10:48 AM

That seems, well, insanely powerful.

PurdueBrad · 05-28-2009, 10:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith

That seems, well, insanely powerful.

Agreed, my fear is that it sends the wolves truly BG hunting.

Tyrith · 05-28-2009, 10:54 AM

That's the weak point of this scheme, with all of our cards out in the open. The other alternative is that they're just going to kill everyone we scan.

PurdueBrad · 05-28-2009, 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith

That's the weak point of this scheme, with all of our cards out in the open. The other alternative is that they're just going to kill everyone we scan.

Yeah, what I want to do though is get enough of a COT out there that they won't be able to push lynches on these candidates so it'll be slow going for them to kill them off one by one during which time our candidates will be narrowed.

OH, I forgot this:

I trust CR and Dubb, Tyrith just below them, and then the rest.

PurdueBrad · 05-28-2009, 11:03 AM

Plus, more importantly, CR or I could hit wolf tonight or tomorrow (or both, yay!) and we can narrow things down that way as well.

PurdueBrad · 05-28-2009, 11:07 AM

We'll get at least five public scans from this maneuver which is better than we get with most seers, particularly the public part, which is why this play still works.

Racer · 05-28-2009, 11:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Tyrith, AWESOME catch from the rules. Right now, my trust is:

CR

Tyrith

the rest of y'all

ALSO, to the other starting seer, I highly recommend a scan on CR from you tonight, just so we can attempt to align scans.

I think I missed why you trust CR more then others.

Racer · 05-28-2009, 11:14 AM

Anyways,

Believe Chief Rum as seer

Prefer him as a candidate over Hoops.

lerriuqs · 05-28-2009, 11:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Racer

I will confirm I am NOT the Duke. EagleFan is dead so that leaves Dubb as one of four candidates that could possibly be the Duke, including Danny who is pushing the notion hard that Dubb is the Duke (so I would assume Danny isn't it either).

I am not the Duke either.

PurdueBrad · 05-28-2009, 11:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Racer

I think I missed why you trust CR more then others.

Oh, sorry Racer, I dropped it in the middle of a post:

I scanned CR last night, he's good.

lerriuqs · 05-28-2009, 11:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Racer

I think I missed why you trust CR more then others.

x2

lerriuqs · 05-28-2009, 11:16 AM

Believe CR as seer

PurdueBrad · 05-28-2009, 11:18 AM

Glad/relieved to see some action in that direction. Lerruiqs, I assume you saw but just in case, I did scan CR, he was good.

dubb93 · 05-28-2009, 11:18 AM

PB, my fear is that you are not the real seer. That has atleast a 50/50 shot of being true. If that is true then your scan on CR can not be trusted.

dubb93 · 05-28-2009, 11:20 AM

My given role is 100% duke in this game. I claimed it, yes, but I claimed it b/c it is my given role. I believe I proved my claim last night and I would like to take on the role of believed seer today. With that:

I am the seer.

lerriuqs · 05-28-2009, 11:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dubb93

PB, my fear is that you are not the real seer. That has atleast a 50/50 shot of being true. If that is true then your scan on CR can not be trusted.

This is true, but if he's not - the real seer has to come out today. And we lynch PB. The BG can protect the seer tonight then we believe a new BG tomorrow. There's some time to see how this plays out I think.

Tyrith · 05-28-2009, 11:24 AM

I am very much not the duke.

The coronation for CR just needs to be qualified -

- 50/50 PB is false seer
- If we assume four wolves then about 75% of his scans are going to turn out villager
- Around 4/13 (in essence 1/3) chance CR is bad. I am excluding PB and dubb here, but that's up for debate.
SUMMATION: Based off straight stats, assuming PB is being honest with us, we're about 1 in 8 that CR is a wolf.

This is by far the best we're going to get, let's just not forget that part.

BELIEVE CHIEF RUM AS SEER

EagleFan · 05-28-2009, 11:24 AM

Go village!!!

Tyrith · 05-28-2009, 11:25 AM

And for kicks, because I mostly trust him at this point:

BELIEVE DUBB93 AS SEER

saldana · 05-28-2009, 11:27 AM

believe CR as seer

dubb93 · 05-28-2009, 11:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

This is true, but if he's not - the real seer has to come out today. And we lynch PB. The BG can protect the seer tonight then we believe a new BG tomorrow. There's some time to see how this plays out I think.

Not true and I wouldn't advocate that we have both seers out in the open this early. The rules state we will have two players who both believe they are seers. The rules also state that one of the players will not get true scans.

Racer · 05-28-2009, 11:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

This is true, but if he's not - the real seer has to come out today. And we lynch PB. The BG can protect the seer tonight then we believe a new BG tomorrow. There's some time to see how this plays out I think.

I'm pretty sure the fake and real seer don't know which one they are. Chief Rum being cleared by PurdueBrad doesn't do a ton for me yet. PB could be the fake seer or be a wolf pretending to be a seer (since there are two real seers - one with good scans and one with worthless scans).

Since Tyrith has confirmed she is not the Duke, that means either Dubb93 or Danny has to be the real Duke (presumed to be a good role). Don't know why Danny would push it on Dubb93 if Danny was in fact the real Duke so

Disbelieve Chief Rum as Seer
Believe Dubb93 as Seer

dubb93 · 05-28-2009, 11:31 AM

Believe Dubb as seer

Tyrith · 05-28-2009, 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Racer

Since Tyrith has confirmed she is not the Duke, that means either Dubb93 or Danny has to be the real Duke (presumed to be a good role). Don't know why Danny would push it on Dubb93 if Danny was in fact the real Duke so

She? /FAIL

Racer · 05-28-2009, 11:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith

She? /FAIL

Oh sorry. I thought you were a girl for some reason.

lerriuqs · 05-28-2009, 11:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Racer

I'm pretty sure the fake and real seer don't know which one they are. Chief Rum being cleared by PurdueBrad doesn't do a ton for me yet. PB could be the fake seer or be a wolf pretending to be a seer (since there are two real seers - one with good scans and one with worthless scans).

Since Tyrith has confirmed she is not the Duke, that means either Dubb93 or Danny has to be the real Duke (presumed to be a good role). Don't know why Danny would push it on Dubb93 if Danny was in fact the real Duke so

Disbelieve Chief Rum as Seer
Believe Dubb93 as Seer

Forgot about the fake seer...

Believe Dubb as Seer.

I'm not going to take off the CR believe just yet though.

Tyrith · 05-28-2009, 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Racer

Oh sorry. I thought you were a girl for some reason.

It's all good.

Tyrith · 05-28-2009, 11:54 AM

Default, placeholder vote, as the other half of a villager lynch. I have zero conviction behind this vote, but I'm going to be gone a long time and I'd prefer to have something out there.

VOTE LERRIUQS

Barkeep49 · 05-28-2009, 12:02 PM

Just to be clear: Purdue may not be believed for any other role unless someone else is the actual bodyguard and that person dies. Until that occurs he is the believed BG. Based on recent voting this seems to be understood, but I wanted it out there anyway.

PurdueBrad · 05-28-2009, 12:19 PM

dubb, terrific point. So it'll be you, me and the BG doing what I laid out for CR, myself, and the BG. Makes perfect, safe sense.

unbelieve CR as seer
believe dubb as seer

Racer · 05-28-2009, 12:19 PM

Vote Schmidty

There doesn't seem to be a push towards anyone right now and there doesn't seem to be any new information that points to anyone being bad in particular. Voting for Schmidty for the time being because he's been quiet and had the chance to move his vote when it was obviously a throw-away vote, but didn't (only one to vote for Martin).

PurdueBrad · 05-28-2009, 12:22 PM

Dubb- Assuming you for seer carries, which it definitely should, I've broken the list into two parts. You scan one from your part, I'll scan one from mine and we'll compare notes in the morning. This should keep them from immediately hitting who we scan.

Dubb's list:

Schmidty
PurdueBrad
Hoopsguy
Danny
USFLTecmo
Chief Rum
Lerriuqs

My list:

Tyrith
ntn
Martin
Lathum
Telle
Racer
saldana

Dubb, I purposely left myself on your list in case you want to double-check me. I'm not double-checking you as we've had no counter-reveal for duke and therefore left you off my list.

PurdueBrad · 05-28-2009, 12:23 PM

Dubb, you also have the ability to catch the cunning, so I'm really looking forward to your scans.

saldana · 05-28-2009, 12:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Dubb, you also have the ability to catch the cunning, so I'm really looking forward to your scans.

unless of course, the cunning is on your half of the list.

does anyone else have a "this is too good to be true" vibe going on right now?

dubb93 · 05-28-2009, 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Dubb- Assuming you for seer carries, which it definitely should, I've broken the list into two parts. You scan one from your part, I'll scan one from mine and we'll compare notes in the morning. This should keep them from immediately hitting who we scan.

Dubb's list:

Schmidty
PurdueBrad
Hoopsguy
Danny
USFLTecmo
Chief Rum
Lerriuqs

My list:

Tyrith
ntn
Martin
Lathum
Telle
Racer
saldana

Dubb, I purposely left myself on your list in case you want to double-check me. I'm not double-checking you as we've had no counter-reveal for duke and therefore left you off my list.

PB, I want to trust you, but IF I do end up seer I would want to be extra careful in what I believe from you. While you may not end up being one of my first targets I would insist that since you posted these two lists and that since I would be the one with the absolutely correct scans that you allow me to scan your list and you take the one you delegated for me. I would feel better about this in the off chance you are a wolf. Otherwise I will most likely burn my first scan on you.

Danny · 05-28-2009, 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

In the morning when people gather for the opening session of the day you notice one of you isn't there. The hotel manager later lets you know that it seems like EagleFan was so harassed by phones call during the night he decided to leave. It appears he was nothing but a normal V.I.L.L.A.G.E.R.

Damn, I had a really good vibe about him being good too.

PurdueBrad · 05-28-2009, 12:28 PM

Then swap lists or have dubb pick it. I was making it easy. Dubb, plug it into Random.org if you want. I simply cut the front page list in half and gave you the half that had me.

lerriuqs · 05-28-2009, 12:29 PM

VOTE MARTIND

The number of early votes on my all citing the "cultist" theme as their reason makes me think I had at least one or two wolves on me. Martin's spot seems off since he was going to vote me, then wasn't, then was...Just looks like there was outside info adding to this.

PurdueBrad · 05-28-2009, 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dubb93

PB, I want to trust you, but IF I do end up seer I would want to be extra careful in what I believe from you. While you may not end up being one of my first targets I would insist that since you posted these two lists and that since I would be the one with the absolutely correct scans that you allow me to scan your list and you take the one you delegated for me. I would feel better about this in the off chance you are a wolf. Otherwise I will most likely burn my first scan on you.

Sounds perfect to me, let's go wolf hunting. So I now have the top list, you have the bottom. Add me to your list as well as I don't want to assume I'm cleared.

PurdueBrad · 05-28-2009, 12:30 PM

Dubb, take Hoops because I think he could very well be the cunning. It is a gut instinct. If you want to give me somebody in return, go ahead.

PurdueBrad · 05-28-2009, 12:30 PM

You don't have to scan him first, he's just worth a look eventually.

05-28-2009, 10:48 AM	#560
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	That seems, well, insanely powerful.

05-28-2009, 10:54 AM	#562
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	That's the weak point of this scheme, with all of our cards out in the open. The other alternative is that they're just going to kill everyone we scan.

05-28-2009, 11:14 AM	#567
Racer College Benchwarmer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Fort Wayne, Indiana	Anyways, Believe Chief Rum as seer Prefer him as a candidate over Hoops.

05-28-2009, 11:16 AM	#571
lerriuqs High School Varsity Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Saskatchewan	Believe CR as seer

05-28-2009, 11:24 AM	#576
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	I am very much not the duke. The coronation for CR just needs to be qualified - - 50/50 PB is false seer - If we assume four wolves then about 75% of his scans are going to turn out villager - Around 4/13 (in essence 1/3) chance CR is bad. I am excluding PB and dubb here, but that's up for debate. SUMMATION: Based off straight stats, assuming PB is being honest with us, we're about 1 in 8 that CR is a wolf. This is by far the best we're going to get, let's just not forget that part. BELIEVE CHIEF RUM AS SEER

05-28-2009, 11:24 AM	#577
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	Go village!!!

05-28-2009, 11:25 AM	#578
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	And for kicks, because I mostly trust him at this point: BELIEVE DUBB93 AS SEER

05-28-2009, 11:27 AM	#579
saldana Pro Starter Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Bethlehem, Pa	believe CR as seer

05-28-2009, 11:54 AM	#587
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	Default, placeholder vote, as the other half of a villager lynch. I have zero conviction behind this vote, but I'm going to be gone a long time and I'd prefer to have something out there. VOTE LERRIUQS

05-28-2009, 12:02 PM	#588
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	Just to be clear: Purdue may not be believed for any other role unless someone else is the actual bodyguard and that person dies. Until that occurs he is the believed BG. Based on recent voting this seems to be understood, but I wanted it out there anyway.

05-28-2009, 12:19 PM	#590
Racer College Benchwarmer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Fort Wayne, Indiana	Vote Schmidty There doesn't seem to be a push towards anyone right now and there doesn't seem to be any new information that points to anyone being bad in particular. Voting for Schmidty for the time being because he's been quiet and had the chance to move his vote when it was obviously a throw-away vote, but didn't (only one to vote for Martin).

05-28-2009, 12:29 PM	#597
lerriuqs High School Varsity Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Saskatchewan	VOTE MARTIND The number of early votes on my all citing the "cultist" theme as their reason makes me think I had at least one or two wolves on me. Martin's spot seems off since he was going to vote me, then wasn't, then was...Just looks like there was outside info adding to this.

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