Werewolf CLXVII - The Wheel of Time - Game Over

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by Grover

Holy crap. Thank you to whoever somehow saved my ass.

Also, why come out saying this? Then reveal now that you in fact were the person who saved you.

[cheekimonk]

I'm also still learning the game, but there was font's lesson to me in my 1st game (backed up by this thread at BGG: WW strategies: see "Agnespoodle Method of Villager Identification (AMVI)") that villagers rage while wolves reason. Grover is certainly all reason & logic.

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by Grover

Holy crap. Thank you to whoever somehow saved my ass.

Also, it's "whomever"...bad grammar is such a sign of darkness.

/sarcasm

[Shoveler]

Day 3 Vote

Grover [3] - Narcizo (538), Zinto (542), cheekimonk (550)
Zinto [1] - Grover (545)

[Grover]

Originally Posted by Zinto

Grover why did you not reveal earlier? You were asked multiple times in thread to reveal and yet chose to wait. And with what happened to Eagle the day before you must have known the risk involved with a late reveal.

To be fair? I didn't expect to get that late vote moved off Martin. If that hadn't happened, cheek would have been lynched and I would have survived with the mechanic.

I thanked "whomever" because I wasn't sure I'd have to reveal that I had the double vote working.

Villagers may rage and Wolves my reason, but I know that I win the game with the light. Nothing I can say is going to change anyone's minds at this point.

If I'm going to be lynched, the wolves will win.

At this point, why bother fighting it any further?

[Grover]

You ask me why I didn't reveal earlier, but when I do reveal it is met with nothing but raised eyebrows.

Damned if I do, damned if I don't, really.

[Grover]

All I'm going to say is this:

You can lynch me tonight and lose another villager and important role.

Or you can try and find someone who is an actual wolf and try and start dwindling their numbers.

If all of you truly believe that my 'reason' as opposed to 'rage' makes me a wolf, c'est la vie.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Grover

To be fair? I didn't expect to get that late vote moved off Martin. If that hadn't happened, cheek would have been lynched and I would have survived with the mechanic.

If I'm going to be lynched, the wolves will win.

It wasn't a terribly late vote, and I sure as hell wasn't going to leave my vote on a pointless target. You had ample time.

And you're still claiming, after you used your power, that you're totally indispensable? C'mon.

[Grover]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

It wasn't a terribly late vote, and I sure as hell wasn't going to leave my vote on a pointless target. You had ample time.

And you're still claiming, after you used your power, that you're totally indispensable? C'mon.

I have the ability to use my power each night, with a random effect.

In fact I used it on you last night.

[Zinto]

Here is my problem with the timeline today. Last night you claimed that someone saved you. Then Narcizo and I come out and say that unless a villager comes out and says they used a power to save you we should probably lynch you. Then you change it up to say you used a power to save yourself.

It just seems like you are being very reactive to what others are saying as abilities from your role come out.

[Grover]

So lynch me and be wrong.

[Grover]

I revealed my role last night late on in hopes of saving myself.

Nobody bought it.

I make a post about being saved, because I didn't necessarily want to deflect that onto myself.

I come clean with the double vote when it's asked.

Nobody bought it.

Why don't I just help you all along?

unvote zinto
vote grover

[Grover]

And to show you my conviction that I am indeed for the light and that you are wrong and falling prey to the wolves?

vote nightfall

[Zinto]

Why Grover? Only three or four people have checked in and shared their thoughts. And only Coffee and I have really interacted with you.

[Grover]

If the two of you, plus Narc aren't convinced. I don't see myself convincing enough of the rest of the group. You either lynch me today or I get killed off by the wolves tonight.

I see where this is headed.

[timmae]

Wow... that is a very weird play. Nightfall doesn't do us any good until we are all on the same page. I don't like this move at all. Also voting for ones self is always a weird move, right?

Thoughts reading through the last few pages... coffee and brit gain plusses or their thoughts/actions leading up to lynch time yesterday. I have to reread their posts again to get a full read on them but my skimming through provided additional insight to believe they are firmly with good.

Grover's posts leading up to lynch, his claim and then his subsequent explanation, including the nightfall vote is very off. This is not like grover as he is usually reserved and has a straightforward playful tone (his last 2 games here). I was gaining some pings early on which lead to vote him yesterday. His odd behavior is either evil or a disgruntled good role. I am still leaning evil as there is at least 1 outright lie (his post thanking who(m)ever saved him).

I like how raven provided additional insight once he arrived and read through in order to catch up yesterday. I hope to see more thoughts from raven as I think he provided some good talking points and if Grover is evil then raven leans good.

I want to hear more from martin and vaimes today. There was some reads on martin yesterday but based on meta reasons there were no votes. I don't think we should lose sight of this and lose another day of information.

If we have one evil then we still need to look at how we vote down the road. With grover's nightfall it seems like we will not be getting more information from him which is a shame.

[Coffee Warlord]

IMO, there's really zero option at this point other than to off Grover. If he's everything he claims he is, well, shit happens. But this has spiraled to the point where we have know one way or another.

That said, in the interest of not wasting a whole day, it's prolly best to discuss potential atlernatives for tomorrow and beyond.

[timmae]

got pulled away on emails... meant to vote.

vote grover

[Grover]

Disgruntled? Maybe a little.

I was accused of being evil because a bunch of people jumped off my vote on Day 0. I was accused of being evil because I never moved a vote when I had told everyone I wasn't around to vote.

Day 2 votes starting piling up on me for what seemed like absolutely no reason.

Now I've come out and told the complete truth with one small white lie about whoMever saved me. I did that to protect myself and the one time power I had. I didn't want to necessarily come out and say I saved myself right off the bat.

Once again, I say it and I'm being reactive to the posts and apparently that's wolfish.

Here's what I know, what I can tell you.

I am searching for the Horn of Valere. Either for my possession or for it to end in the hands of the Light.

Secondly, I have the potential to become the Dragon Reborn. This is separate from the horn and I apologize for the confusion last night. I'm not sure if it means that I need to die and be resurrected for this to happen, but I know that I win the game if the Light wins the game, but only if I stay alive.

As a channeler, I can use my powers once a night on someone here with random effects.

This is who I am.

As far as timmae commenting on my play-style. I've only participated in three games to this point. I wouldn't put my style into concrete terms. As someone who does a lot of writing I am accustomed to fitting into different roles and characters and can change my mindset and style as needed.

[Grover]

And as far as playing this game well, I'm pretty sure I may have peaked in the Mars game.

[path12]

Self votes will ALWAYS get me to agree. It's a freakin' game man.

VOTE GROVER

[Grover]

Originally Posted by path12

Self votes will ALWAYS get me to agree. It's a freakin' game man.

VOTE GROVER

And I'm not lashing out at this being just a game.

I've come completely cleaned, as asked and no one believes me.

What would you do in this situation?

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by Grover

As a channeler, I can use my powers once a night on someone here with random effects.

Wait, you've said you're Illian but you can also channel AND you could be the Dragon Reborn? I'm fairly certain that makes you a male channeler. That means you are either the Dragon Reborn, a false Dragon, or Forsaken.

Now, of the Forsaken we know "...they were wielders of the Power in the days of Legend, capable of things that are no longer even imagined. They were sealed away when the Dark One was, but not so tightly, and before the Dark One escapes, they will. It is possible one walks the world right now, his abilities so far beyond those of the Aes Sedai that they could stand in front of him and not recognize him."

He's not Aes Sedai because his power would not have "random effects" as he has claimed. Aes Sedai belong to an Ajah which strictly defines their power. He also claims that it was he who switched the vote. That's a power that I can't see any role having outside the Aes Sedai and I don't even see an Ajah that could accomplish such a thing.

Combining the "random effects on anyone" with the ability to swap the vote, these sound like abilities "that are no longer even imagined...". I think Grover is Forsaken.

[MartinD]

Looking at the vote counts from yesterday in a bit more detail:

Posted at 1.47AM (or 8.47PM Eastern)

Originally Posted by Shoveler

Day 2 Vote

Grover [8] - cheekimonk (258), MartinD (259), timmae (310), Raven (387), Vaimes (388), Glengoyne (408), Coffee Warlord (453), path12 (459)
cheekimonk [6] - britrock88 (248), Narcizo (340), Zinto (396), Chief Rum (402), The Jackal (445), Grover (457)

Posted at 2.01AM (or 9.01PM Eastern)

Originally Posted by Shoveler

Day 2 Vote (Final)


Grover [7] - cheekimonk (258), MartinD (259), timmae (310), Raven (387), Vaimes (388), Glengoyne (408), Coffee Warlord (453), path12 (459)
cheekimonk [7] - britrock88 (248), Narcizo (340), Zinto (396), Chief Rum (402), The Jackal (445), Grover (457)

There were no votes/unvotes in the 14 minutes in between.

The list of voters for Grover and cheekimonk are the same in both posts - it's just the totals that are different. As there are 8 people on Grover and 6 on cheekimonk, something unusual is going on here. It doesn't appear to be a multi-counting vote, as the 'revised' count is 7-7 - that suggests that something has caused a vote for Grover to be counted as a vote for cheekimonk.

A few possibilities come to mind:
- the Dark have influenced the vote count in some way (Compulsion is the obvious one (as per how it is described/used in the books - forcing someone to do something against their will, then making them forget what they did), but the Forsaken are capable of many unexpected things)
- Grover has suggested that he is (potentially) the Dragon (post 460) - in the books, the Dragon is ta'veren (as are Perrin and Mat, to a lesser extent), meaning that the Pattern shifts around him (so unlikely/unexpected things happen much more frequently, both good and bad - this isn't something that the ta'veren can control, though). It is possible that this has caused the adjustment to the vote counts, and may be an automatic event rather than a power/item that needs to be activated/used.
- Someone on the side of the Light has influenced the vote count

(It is possible that Grover is the cause of the change to the vote count, but I don't think that this directly leads to being able to place Grover on the side of Dark or Light.)


Taking this line of thinking on to the next stage...

Why would the Dark save Grover? The change in the vote count is very suspicious, so was always likely to end up with Grover being the lead candidate for lynch the following day (as we've already seen). What do the Dark gain from keeping Grover around for one more day? Less info for the village (the 'no lynch' from Day 2 means that we're really no further forward than we were yesterday), one extra night kill - yes, there is some value there. How much value might depend on how the vote count was changed - if it's a one-shot deal, it seems to me that holding back might be more effective (would it not be better to keep that power for the end-game, if possible?), but it might not be, which is something to bear in mind for future votes...)

If Grover is the one with the power to change the vote count, though, it is a different story - it's pretty likely that you can't use your powers after you've been lynched, so why not use that power while you can (although there's an explicit statement in the rules (post 2 - first bullet point under 'Important Additions') that a person may be able to influence the game after they have died - the first thing that comes to mind here is that in the books, several of the Forsaken are reincarnated after being killed, Osan'gar and Aran'gar for example).

Grover having the power to alter the vote count doesn't necessarily lead to being on one side or other, though - it is a power that I could see being given to either Light or Dark.

I think that the third possibility (that a non-Grover person on the side of the Light has saved Grover) is unlikely - am mentioning this more to be sure that I've covered all the bases rather than thinking that it's the likely reason for the 'unusual' vote count.


While I think that it's likely that Grover is on the side of the Dark, the only way that we can be certain (one way or the other) is a lynch, given that we no longer have a seer.

[Grover]

Originally Posted by MartinD

Looking at the vote counts from yesterday in a bit more detail:

Posted at 1.47AM (or 8.47PM Eastern)


Posted at 2.01AM (or 9.01PM Eastern)


There were no votes/unvotes in the 14 minutes in between.

The list of voters for Grover and cheekimonk are the same in both posts - it's just the totals that are different. As there are 8 people on Grover and 6 on cheekimonk, something unusual is going on here. It doesn't appear to be a multi-counting vote, as the 'revised' count is 7-7 - that suggests that something has caused a vote for Grover to be counted as a vote for cheekimonk.

A few possibilities come to mind:
- the Dark have influenced the vote count in some way (Compulsion is the obvious one (as per how it is described/used in the books - forcing someone to do something against their will, then making them forget what they did), but the Forsaken are capable of many unexpected things)
- Grover has suggested that he is (potentially) the Dragon (post 460) - in the books, the Dragon is ta'veren (as are Perrin and Mat, to a lesser extent), meaning that the Pattern shifts around him (so unlikely/unexpected things happen much more frequently, both good and bad - this isn't something that the ta'veren can control, though). It is possible that this has caused the adjustment to the vote counts, and may be an automatic event rather than a power/item that needs to be activated/used.
- Someone on the side of the Light has influenced the vote count

(It is possible that Grover is the cause of the change to the vote count, but I don't think that this directly leads to being able to place Grover on the side of Dark or Light.)


Taking this line of thinking on to the next stage...

Why would the Dark save Grover? The change in the vote count is very suspicious, so was always likely to end up with Grover being the lead candidate for lynch the following day (as we've already seen). What do the Dark gain from keeping Grover around for one more day? Less info for the village (the 'no lynch' from Day 2 means that we're really no further forward than we were yesterday), one extra night kill - yes, there is some value there. How much value might depend on how the vote count was changed - if it's a one-shot deal, it seems to me that holding back might be more effective (would it not be better to keep that power for the end-game, if possible?), but it might not be, which is something to bear in mind for future votes...)

If Grover is the one with the power to change the vote count, though, it is a different story - it's pretty likely that you can't use your powers after you've been lynched, so why not use that power while you can (although there's an explicit statement in the rules (post 2 - first bullet point under 'Important Additions') that a person may be able to influence the game after they have died - the first thing that comes to mind here is that in the books, several of the Forsaken are reincarnated after being killed, Osan'gar and Aran'gar for example).

Grover having the power to alter the vote count doesn't necessarily lead to being on one side or other, though - it is a power that I could see being given to either Light or Dark.

I think that the third possibility (that a non-Grover person on the side of the Light has saved Grover) is unlikely - am mentioning this more to be sure that I've covered all the bases rather than thinking that it's the likely reason for the 'unusual' vote count.


While I think that it's likely that Grover is on the side of the Dark, the only way that we can be certain (one way or the other) is a lynch, given that we no longer have a seer.

As I have stated further up, as a male Channeler I have the ability to use my powers once a day one a person of my choosing. The result is unknown to me before I use it. I could be hoping for something to happen, but I don't have a say in it.

After using my powers on someone for Night Zero, I was given the ability have my vote count twice. My vote, plus the person I used the power on, regardless of who they voted for.

I voted for cheeki. Someone who voted for me had their vote shifted to cheeki even though it doesn't show that way on the final count.

I win if the light wins. I want the Horn of Valere in the light's hands.

If you're all going to vote to lynch me, just vote nightfall so we can get this over with and you can all move forward and fall to the wolves.

Losing three major roles in as many nights... is that going to be a record here?

[Vaimes]

Originally Posted by Grover

If I'm going to be lynched, the wolves will win.

At this point, why bother fighting it any further?

Man, you're like a broken record.

Originally Posted by Grover

Iunvote zinto
vote grover

Whom is this supposed to help if you are telling the truth?

Town is capable of winning, even without super fancy roles, so. If the only reason you can provide for not lynching you is 'I have the best role ever,' then I'm not really buying that.

[Grover]

Then don't. I'm resigned to the fact that I'm going to be lynched.

There's nothing else I can say to disprove anybody at this point.

[Chief Rum]

Grover, bad move with the self vote, man, and especially following it up with a nightfall. I understand getting frustrated--we have all been there--but don't do that. Big no no.

[Grover]

Welp, as a new player. I did not know. *Shrug*

[path12]

Originally Posted by Grover

And I'm not lashing out at this being just a game.

I've come completely cleaned, as asked and no one believes me.

What would you do in this situation?

Not vote for myself.

Look, all of us have a small view of the elephant -- the only ones who know who is who are the wolves. The wolves are lying. All game. So we are trying to make the best decisions we can with imperfect information.

This means that yeah, most of the time we are going to lynch good guys early despite our best efforts. And yeah, it sucks when you are good and people don't believe you.

But this IS THE GAME. And what you don't do is get pouty and vote for yourself. Or, IMO, use your power to save yourself when you are on the block.

You say the horn will convert you to the dragon. Great! The rules make it sound like the crystal sword is what the dragon needs, and that everyone in the Illian faction is looking for the horn for some other reason. So there is a natural discrepancy there. I don't blame anyone for doubting that because, again, wolves lie. You very well may not be lying, in which case it sucks that there is a difference between how the equipment is written and how it actually works, but my inclination is always going to be to go back to the ruleset.

I mean, you play this game awhile and there are going to be times it gets under your skin. But none of this is personal, we're just trying to get the bad guys, y'know?

[Chief Rum]

So the "random" effect of your power just happened to be exactly what saved you? Am I understanding right, Grover?

Also, I understand wanting to deflect attention from your powers, but you didn't have a reason to post that about "whoever saved you". It wasn't like someone asked you directly how it happened. You just offered that up, without prompting.

[Grover]

Stop acting like I am taking this personally.

I'm not.

I am just resigned to the fact that this game is over for me.

I'm sorry that I've played this game now three times and I'm making mistakes that veterans wouldn't make. Seriously. I'm sorry.

I misspoke last night about what the Horn would do, but I clarified it earlier this morning. I laid out everything I know about myself and laid it bare.

[Grover]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

So the "random" effect of your power just happened to be exactly what saved you? Am I understanding right, Grover?

Also, I understand wanting to deflect attention from your powers, but you didn't have a reason to post that about "whoever saved you". It wasn't like someone asked you directly how it happened. You just offered that up, without prompting.

Well, it only saved me because of the circumstances, no?

I could have swung a vote influentially any way it would have worked, but in this situation it saved me.

The character I used my power on last night, cannot be lynched by the wolves tonight. I put a protective net around them. I will not say who they are, in hopes that the wolves try and lynch that person.

[Grover]

Here's a question, even though it probably won't matter.

Even though I've voted nightfall, and it has to be unanimous for it to go through. Can I still change my lynch vote?

I likely will not, but it's good to know all of the ins and outs.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Grover

Well, it only saved me because of the circumstances, no?

I could have swung a vote influentially any way it would have worked, but in this situation it saved me.

The character I used my power on last night, cannot be lynched by the wolves tonight. I put a protective net around them. I will not say who they are, in hopes that the wolves try and lynch that person.

But you see that doesn't sound random. I mean, of all the powers that could have come up... you could have had an ability to kill for a night. Or to scan someone. Or to guard someone. There are a million abilities you could have had which would have been great--but have been unable to save you from a lynch.

And you randomly got one that saved you. That's what I am questioning here. Just how "random" is this? Doesn't sound random at all.

[Vaimes]

Hm.

The Doc protect gives me pause, but. Secretly affecting the vote doesn't sound like a town power.

[Vaimes]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

But you see that doesn't sound random. I mean, of all the powers that could have come up... you could have had an ability to kill for a night. Or to scan someone. Or to guard someone. There are a million abilities you could have had which would have been great--but have been unable to save you from a lynch.

And you randomly got one that saved you. That's what I am questioning here. Just how "random" is this? Doesn't sound random at all.

Also this.

[Grover]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

But you see that doesn't sound random. I mean, of all the powers that could have come up... you could have had an ability to kill for a night. Or to scan someone. Or to guard someone. There are a million abilities you could have had which would have been great--but have been unable to save you from a lynch.

And you randomly got one that saved you. That's what I am questioning here. Just how "random" is this? Doesn't sound random at all.

The power was given to me after I decided to use my Channeling.

The news was given to me well before the votes for the day started coming in against cheek and I.

Yes, I know it sounds entirely coincidental and too good to be true, but I do promise this is how it happened.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Grover

Here's a question, even though it probably won't matter.

Even though I've voted nightfall, and it has to be unanimous for it to go through. Can I still change my lynch vote?

I likely will not, but it's good to know all of the ins and outs.

That's up to the mods. Generally, a nightfall for you personally only locks in your vote. The nightfall unanimous thing is only to end the night early, and also only if the mods allow it.

I would actually hope that Autumn saves you from yourself and invalidates your nightfall.

[Grover]

and yes, I realize now it might have been better to take the fall then to protect myself and let no one get lynched.

But there was every possibility of cheek and I both getting lynched with the tie vote. Whatever roll of the dice or flip of the coin Autumn/Shoveler performed is what saved me in addition to my vote counting twice.

[Grover]

I've had a hard time getting reads on anybody who could be a wolf. There are a lot of UTR players this time, and it's hard to gleen anything from 2-3 posts a day.

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by Grover

Here's a question, even though it probably won't matter.

Even though I've voted nightfall, and it has to be unanimous for it to go through. Can I still change my lynch vote?

I likely will not, but it's good to know all of the ins and outs.

Nope it is in the rules: "Nightfall votes will be accepted but will have to be unanimous, and once entered your vote may not be changed."

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by Grover

I've had a hard time getting reads on anybody who could be a wolf. There are a lot of UTR players this time, and it's hard to gleen anything from 2-3 posts a day.

I agree. It doesn't help that we have almost no information.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Grover

I've had a hard time getting reads on anybody who could be a wolf. There are a lot of UTR players this time, and it's hard to gleen anything from 2-3 posts a day.

Absolutely agree with you here.

[Grover]

Originally Posted by Zinto

Nope it is in the rules: "Nightfall votes will be accepted but will have to be unanimous, and once entered your vote may not be changed."

Well, that's the last time I'll make this mistake again. Heh.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Zinto

Nope it is in the rules: "Nightfall votes will be accepted but will have to be unanimous, and once entered your vote may not be changed."

MODS in this instance might you make an exception here?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Zinto

I agree. It doesn't help that we have almost no information.

No public information. I get the sense there is a lot of behind the scenes information in this one.

I, for instance, know some things behind the scenes, related to my faction and role. But they are better left secret now or have been irrelevant to the discuss).

(FWIW, it's really just info; I don't have any actions I can take)

[Vaimes]

Uh.

Thank you for crumbing for no reason?

[Vaimes]

Or rather softclaiming.

[Grover]

Here's my thing. I understand if you do not believe me and want to lynch me to find out one way or the other.

But with my reveal, and I promise it is all true, it makes me a huge target for the wolves tonight. I'd put money on myself being killed off if not lynched.

Why let the wolves get a 2 for 1 deal tonight? Why don't we try and see if there is someone else that could potentially be a wolf outside of me?