2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread

[GrantDawg]

I’m at the Georgia GOP watch party and Republicans are still antsy. They’ve built up big margins in rural Georgia, and vote-rich Forsyth County is still not in. But the heaviest-hitting Dem counties are still mostly out. GOPers are nervous the cushion isn't big enough. #gapol

— Greg Bluestein (@bluestein) November 4, 2020

[Ben E Lou]

NC at 86% reporting. Biden has a lead of ~1300 votes now.


In case anyone is wondering, mail-in ballots received up until November 12th are valid here, as long as postmarked by 11/3.

[ISiddiqui]

Arizona is looking good for Biden. Maricopa County especially.

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[Lathum]

If it wasn't for the dreadful coronavirus response and complete disregard for science I would feel better about this. I am a white male who make over 400K. For all intents and purposes I should want Trump to win.

[Jas_lov]

Yeah, early numbers in AZ look good but how many times have we heard that tonight.

[Ben E Lou]

Trump now up by 24K votes in NC.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by Lathum

If it wasn't for the dreadful coronavirus response and complete disregard for science I would feel better about this. I am a white male who make over 400K. For all intents and purposes I should want Trump to win.

Oh yea. I am 100% voting against my best personal interests

[Radii]

Originally Posted by Lathum

For all intents and purposes I should want Trump to win.

Fucking conscience and concern for other human beings, eh? I don't make nearly as much as you but I'm single and over 6 figures, so same boat, but I feel fucking sick, obviously. It's really feeling exactly like 2016.

[Radii]

Arizona also will return a lot more early voting results initially and then trend towards Trump, I believe.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Union county has no votes in. High population that will be mostly Trump.

Huh, Totally missed that, and the 24K lead is pretty much exactly the Union Co. difference (now with 83% reported there.) But GSO, Winston, and Raleigh are still under 85% reporting. Seems like it could still go either way, and that both models are wildly overstating this...

[BillyMadison]

This night is over folks. Insane. Absolutely insane.

[SirFozzie]

I'm trying not to freak out, and failing miserably.

[Radii]

double dola? Maaaaybe the Ohio results are a good sign for Pennsylvania? But PA is the state with the most likelyhood for lawyer fuckery and suppressing dem votes, which will be a complete nightmare no matter who ends up winning.

[JPhillips]

I was cautiously optimistic today, but I think it's going to be two more years looking like the previous two. Hard to imagine what Trump will do with no need to be re-elected and convinced every decision he makes is correct.

[thesloppy]

All of the needles starting to tick Trumpward on Fox now.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Radii

Fucking conscience and concern for other human beings, eh? I don't make nearly as much as you but I'm single and over 6 figures, so same boat, but I feel fucking sick, obviously. It's really feeling exactly like 2016.

To be fair, it is all my wife. I am a stay at home dad but she feels the same as I do. We would be happy to give more to make others lives happier and leave a better world for our kids.

Hell, just to have some dignity in the office would be nice.

[tarcone]

White people become the minority in the country in 30 years, you dont htink they want to keep theirs now?

I have never had aproblem a of cop pulling a gun on me. I havent really worried about finding a job. I havent had a worry of people following me in a store.

Whats good for the the goose is good for the gander.

[ISiddiqui]

Re: Arizona. Maricopa County it's at 77% and Biden is up by 10. Trump won it 4 years ago. Yeah, it'll get closer but that's massive.

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[cthomer5000]

This is just a re-run of 2016. We're plumbing new depths. Hope is gone for me.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I was cautiously optimistic today, but I think it's going to be two more years looking like the previous two. Hard to imagine what Trump will do with no need to be re-elected and convinced every decision he makes is correct.

Cute.

You don't think his team is already working on a way to get him a third term? He is probably on the phone with Putin right now trying to figure out how to make it happen.

[Ben E Lou]

Fox has removed their NC ticker entirely.

[Lathum]

So this is what it feels like to be in the minority

[tarcone]

Not going to lie, I thought with record turnout that would favor Biden. Then I thought about it as I looked at my polling place all day, which I live in a extreme GOP county and thought, yep, 2016 all over again.

[cuervo72]

Senator Tommy Tuberville, everybody!

[GrantDawg]

What is left in North Carolina is mostly deep blue areas. The same day totals there are still very good for Biden. It still looks pretty good.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Fox has removed their NC ticker entirely.

Their AZ ticker has gone from like 80% Red to 80% blue and now back again, so yeah, they don't know wtf is going on.

[ISiddiqui]

Fwiw

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status...217886210?s=19

NC count may not be known for a bit.

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[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Cute.

You don't think his team is already working on a way to get him a third term? He is probably on the phone with Putin right now trying to figure out how to make it happen.

I doubt he's healthy enough. Even so, I'm much more worried about the next four years than I am a hypothetical four years after that. He's no longer bound by any concerns of the system. He can do whatever the Senate GOP lets him do, and they'll let him do almost anything he wants.

[Swaggs]

Does this end Nate Silver/538’s fifteen minutes of fame?

[BillyMadison]

Originally Posted by tarcone

White people become the minority in the country in 30 years, you dont htink they want to keep theirs now?

I have never had aproblem a of cop pulling a gun on me. I havent really worried about finding a job. I havent had a worry of people following me in a store.

Whats good for the the goose is good for the gander.

So great we’re splintering into our racial groups now.

But frankly if Rio Grande Hispanics who have a President who wants to build a wall on their property and directly insults them and enacts policies that are prejudice against them want to vote against their own self interests, why should I keep fighting and standing up for these people ?

I say this somewhat dejected but my golly. I can’t ...

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

What is left in North Carolina is mostly deep blue areas. The same day totals there are still very good for Biden. It still looks pretty good.

Wake County (Raleigh) is the 2nd largest in the state and has been 2:1 Biden so far. If that holds, Biden makes up 30K votes in that county. He's currently down 40K. It's gonna be a close one.

[HerRealName]

NYT found an error on their NC needle which double counted 30K votes for Trump. Weird.

We have some good news for Democrats in North Carolina, where a reporting error by Randolph County is padding Trump by about 30k in our estimate there.
They reported both in person (abs one-stop) and absentee mail together, but the needle's still expecting 45k early votes pic.twitter.com/yXc2BAoD2P

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 4, 2020

[molson]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Does this end Nate Silver/538’s fifteen minutes of fame?

It's not really his fault, he just compiles polls that don't seem to have relevance anymore. But ya, he should got back to sports. (Though even there, we sure do seem to have a LOT of 0.05% likely comebacks every year in NFL and MLB games).

[Brian Swartz]

It's weird, I keep hearing almost all the vote in NC is from blue areas, and yet Trump's lead keeps increasing now. Almost 40k now which isn't that much but ... those who know more, what's up with these two facts that really don't seem to fit together?

It really looks like a big possibility for what Lathum was referring to - Trump leading until the late-arriving mailers show up.

[GrantDawg]

We have some good news for Democrats in North Carolina, where a reporting error by Randolph County is padding Trump by about 30k in our estimate there.
They reported both in person (abs one-stop) and absentee mail together, but the needle's still expecting 45k early votes pic.twitter.com/yXc2BAoD2P

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 4, 2020

[ISiddiqui]

Seems a lot of double counting in NC. So we may have to wait days to disentangle.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status...243685376?s=19

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[sterlingice]

Even if Biden wins somehow, man, what a fractured country.

I said something like this a couple of weeks ago so, yeah, it's a repeat, but there were nearly half of all people who looked around at all this (gestures wildly at the pandemic, economy, racial unrest, systemic police problems, health care situation, environment, and just the general "brick to the head" news every day) and said "Yeah, sign me up for 4 more years of this".

SI

[Brian Swartz]

Super. Let's not have it come down to NC then.

[GrantDawg]

So if you merely give Biden the Fulton/DeKalb margins that Hillary had -- and that might be lowballing with the suburban white shift in the northern part of the counties -- that would cut the Georgia margin from 346k to 72k.

— Conor Sen (@conorsen) November 4, 2020

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

It's weird, I keep hearing almost all the vote in NC is from blue areas, and yet Trump's lead keeps increasing now. Almost 40k now which isn't that much but ... those who know more, what's up with these two facts that really don't seem to fit together?

Rural red counties seem to be going up. Greensboro and Winston have been stagnant under 85% reporting since whenever I first posted about those numbers (probably 30-45 minutes ago.) Not sure what the delay is there, but it's consistent in the other larger cities other than Charlotte. Raleigh is also still under 85%.

[ISiddiqui]

Philly is saying they may not count the early mail in vote until tomorrow... They got something more important going on right now?

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[Radii]

Originally Posted by tarcone

White people become the minority in the country in 30 years, you dont htink they want to keep theirs now?

I have never had aproblem a of cop pulling a gun on me. I havent really worried about finding a job. I havent had a worry of people following me in a store.

Whats good for the the goose is good for the gander.

Agreed, but seeing reports of different Latino groups shifting HEAVILY towards trump and even a native american heavy county in NC shift heavily to trump is something too

Seems like white people in some demos have shifted towards biden but maybe not enough.

[BillyMadison]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Philly is saying they may not count the early mail in vote until tomorrow... They got something more important going on right now?

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Yea wouldnt you want to put your Vegas wagers in before counting literally the last results of the election?

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Greensboro and Winston have been stagnant under 85% reporting since whenever I first posted about those numbers (probably 30-45 minutes ago.

42 minutes actually

[Butter]

If the blue counties in NC already reported their early votes, then the rest of the vote is more likely to be somewhat red

[PilotMan]

but nobody really knows, and every state is different.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Butter

If the blue counties in NC already reported their early votes, then the rest of the vote is more likely to be somewhat red

According to Steve Kornaki the votes in Wake are coming in 60% Biden from same day. So, not really.

[ISiddiqui]

Of course Michigan and Pennsylvania are saying they probably won't count all of their votes (and mostly mail in) until later this week. That's going to be fun.

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[BillyMadison]

Serious question: could corruption and collusion have infiltrated and drilled and become pitted so far down into our Democratic system that election results are actually not accurate? It’s either that or Nate Silver and the like are so so terrible at their job and wrong.

[Ghost Econ]

I want to go to sleep and get it over with, but I don't think I can call asleep