11-03-2020, 09:46 PM | #6001 |
Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Greensboro, NC
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Cooper (D) wins NC Gov.
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11-03-2020, 09:47 PM | #6002 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
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That occurred to me, but I'm trying really hard to not be jaded and conspiracy minded. If it's happened, and that's what it is, we'll never actually know, and there won't be anything we can do about it and nothing will matter going forward, because it's ended.
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11-03-2020, 09:48 PM | #6003 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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Quote:
Couldn't happen that fast with the outstanding historical track record that modern polling has. This is definitely an event that will be studied long and hard to figure out why it was so far off - if it stays as far off as it appears. |
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11-03-2020, 09:48 PM | #6004 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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Quote:
I don't think so. I think the attempts at voter suppression and fucking around with mail-in ballots are brazen and horrible and some of them might succeed, but what you're suggesting as far as internal efforts to fuck with the actual will of the people I think at this point I would put on the level of the right talking about mass voter fraud amongst the left as far as my assumption of what's currently happening. |
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11-03-2020, 09:49 PM | #6005 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2003
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I don't think as bad as things get you could possibly rig a vote large scale enough for it to matter. There are too many incredibly qualified people with eyes on it.
It's far more likely to be that polls continue to get worse (at least in elections where people are highly motivated), things like high turnout got interpreted to mean one thing when they quite simply could (and probably should looking at 2016) have been interpreted as another, and people are still really bad at judging error bars and sample size. |
11-03-2020, 09:49 PM | #6006 |
General Manager
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Kansas City, MO
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So is this the point where I come in and revisit the fact that I predicted that the same thing that happened in 2016 would happen in 2020? It's not over yet, but the pollsters really have some explaining to do because they aren't even close AGAIN. When Nate Silver and his crew are openly questioning their techniques on their live election blog, there's some big issues.
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11-03-2020, 09:50 PM | #6007 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2003
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DOLA - the really interesting thing will be to see how many of these states fell within the margin of error and how many didn't. If we have another one where it's significantly out of the margin of error, stick a fork in traditional polling. It's done.
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11-03-2020, 09:51 PM | #6008 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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Quote:
So basically we are now virtually guaranteed the chaos. I want to cry now. But I think it's time for me to just go to sleep instead. |
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11-03-2020, 09:52 PM | #6009 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Seven miles up
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I never had a feeling that Biden was never going to win FL, OH, TX, or PA. Having said that, MI and WI, AZ and NC are where the real battle is and looks like it will be. Those were places where the biggest chances were for Biden, and he will need to bang them in.
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11-03-2020, 09:54 PM | #6010 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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Ohio union voters 56-42 in Trump's favor. Another example of a group where the CW was they'll abandon Trump because of everything he's done to them. Or perhaps they knew who they were voting for the first time, and meant it. What others thought should be important them isn't what they saw.
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11-03-2020, 09:55 PM | #6011 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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My brother pretty much nailed it. Even down to the margins in FL and OH.
Biden is done. AZ means nothing without a PA/GA/NC/FL/OH to go with it, even if you assume he gets MN/WI/MI. I guess that would make NV the state he needs to go with AZ as his only path.
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11-03-2020, 09:55 PM | #6012 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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With North Carolina up to 93% reporting I don't think there's enough left in the blue counties to catch them up anymore.
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11-03-2020, 09:56 PM | #6013 | |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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Quote:
Where's my post from weeks ago where the two blue collar guys explained why they were voting for Trump, and it was a list of 6-8 things they claimed Trump did and all of them were 100% wrong. It was crazy.
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11-03-2020, 09:56 PM | #6014 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
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On top of pollsters taking it on the chin, we also have to question why the conventional wisdom has always been high vote turnout is better for democrats.
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11-03-2020, 09:57 PM | #6015 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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In PA looks like most of the missing votes are in Philly and the suburbs (30% in for all those counties).
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11-03-2020, 09:58 PM | #6016 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
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Quote:
You can get to 270 with the one vote from NE if he gets AZ, WI, and MI. Without NE, it could be 269-269. He's still got a decent chance. But after 2016, I think we all expect it to go to Trump.
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11-03-2020, 09:59 PM | #6017 |
High School Varsity
Join Date: May 2003
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Yikes
Last edited by BillyMadison : 11-04-2020 at 01:10 AM. |
11-03-2020, 09:59 PM | #6018 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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11-03-2020, 09:59 PM | #6019 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
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Speaking of raw vote numbers, I don't think the Republicans can win AZ. All he needs is MI, WI, AZ and the 2 congressional districts in ME and NE to win. Wouldn't even need PA.
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11-03-2020, 10:00 PM | #6020 | |
College Starter
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
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Quote:
ABC already called all three Nebraska electoral college votes for Trump.
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11-03-2020, 10:00 PM | #6021 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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I'm not nearly there yet. NC is still in play. So is PA. We don't know nearly enough about the mail-in ballots.
I didn't want it come down to that obviously and clearly I was dead wrong about the margin, about Texas, etc. But this is a long way from over and I still don't favor Trump yet. |
11-03-2020, 10:00 PM | #6022 |
College Prospect
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Barnegat, NJ
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Can someone speak to how things are looking in MI so far?
Last edited by Ironhead : 11-03-2020 at 10:01 PM. |
11-03-2020, 10:02 PM | #6023 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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I know we have whiplash from 2016, but in 2018 everyone thought the Dems lost big. This board had a number of people angry at the Dems and then a couple days later it turned out the Dems won massively. So... Probably should wait.. esp with so many mail in ballots.
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11-03-2020, 10:02 PM | #6024 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Back in Houston!
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I think Trump breaks a bunch of CW. He's this weird unicorn. That seems too simple but maybe it's also it. SI
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11-03-2020, 10:04 PM | #6025 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
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Quote:
There are still 2 more votes that are tied to the 2 House districts.
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11-03-2020, 10:04 PM | #6026 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Seven miles up
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Quote:
Yeah, 2018 started off looking pretty bad, then after it was done it was pretty wide for the Dems. Having said that, is this real life? Life for real?
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11-03-2020, 10:06 PM | #6027 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Pacific
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Quote:
I thought it was 4 out of 5
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11-03-2020, 10:08 PM | #6028 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Pacific
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Parson wins MO governor.
Not a bad governor. and not one that I am against. Bit one that is tell tale of this presidential election. A rural guy that the country folk LOVE and came out and voted for. Welcome to 2020
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11-03-2020, 10:09 PM | #6029 | |
College Starter
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
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Quote:
Sorry, I saw they won the 2 statewide and the 3rd district and though that was the all of them.
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11-03-2020, 10:10 PM | #6030 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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So it's looking like we'll have Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania up for Trump tonight with tons of mail in ballots yet to count. And if they all end up Biden, things after going to get reaaaaly messy.
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11-03-2020, 10:12 PM | #6031 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Seven miles up
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Some of these states are saying that they are not even starting some of the early counts until tomorrow.
Go to bed. There's nothing more to glean tonight.
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11-03-2020, 10:15 PM | #6032 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: the yo'
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unsurprisingly the PA law is dumb so they had to let 350k votes build up in Philly and something less in Pitts and they couldn't start counting them until 7am today.
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11-03-2020, 10:16 PM | #6033 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Pacific
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Parson won most rural counties 80-20 over Galloway in MO
And this is why Trump will win.
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11-03-2020, 10:16 PM | #6034 |
College Prospect
Join Date: Oct 2020
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11-03-2020, 10:17 PM | #6035 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Pacific
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Quote:
Dude, it is already over. Go to bed and wake up to 4 more years of crazy
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11-03-2020, 10:19 PM | #6036 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Seven miles up
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Quote:
Why should rural areas care about city problems? They don't have them. They don't worry about them. It's easy to vote for the guy who says I'll keep you living like you're living now, or better. If that's all you're paying attention to, that's all that matters.
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11-03-2020, 10:21 PM | #6037 |
Grey Dog Software
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Phoenix, AZ by way of Belleville, IL
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If the one Nebraska vote decides it for Biden, I’m buying a bunch of Omaha Steaks.
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11-03-2020, 10:23 PM | #6038 |
Checkraising Tourists
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Cocoa Beach, FL
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Fox News just called Arizona for Biden.
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11-03-2020, 10:26 PM | #6039 |
Grey Dog Software
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Phoenix, AZ by way of Belleville, IL
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Trump is down to -161 on the betting market
Last edited by Arles : 11-03-2020 at 10:28 PM. |
11-03-2020, 10:30 PM | #6040 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Seems like Nevada may be the only real interesting state left to call for tonight. GA, NC, PA, OH, WI, and MI seem destined to be too close or early to call.
The senate race in Montana seemed like it could be interesting, but Sounds like the dem is underperforming. Maybe Alaska senator will be close. And Iowa senate, possibly (but it doesn’t seem like that type of night). |
11-03-2020, 10:31 PM | #6041 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Georgia
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Can we wait until the election is over before shitting on polling? Polling leads were narrow in FL and NC. The polling did pick up on AZ and the closeness of TX (and probably GA). It picked up on Kelly and Hickenlooper, etc.
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11-03-2020, 10:32 PM | #6042 | |
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Quote:
You also said the same thing in 2008 and 2012.
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11-03-2020, 10:32 PM | #6043 |
College Prospect
Join Date: Oct 2020
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Their job is take people's money. Seems weird they take betting odds on something where the actions that decided it have already been taken. Aside from Hawaii and Alaska, there's literally nothing anyone can do about the results, it's already locked in. It's like watching the Braves on the playoffs, you know what's going to happen and how, just not the exact sequence. |
11-03-2020, 10:35 PM | #6044 |
Grey Dog Software
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Phoenix, AZ by way of Belleville, IL
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It’s more that 538 said Biden had an 89% chance. That looks a little silly now.
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11-03-2020, 10:37 PM | #6045 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Georgia
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Quote:
Is it? If Biden pulls it out by taking AZ and ME-2 or NE-2, then that's one of the scenarios that made up the 89%. Part of the reason it was 89% is because Biden could lose a ton of swing states and still win.
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11-03-2020, 10:37 PM | #6046 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Pacific
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Quote:
Because St louis problems dominate the headlines. Our state government had to deal with the violence in St Louis. The government had to deal with the overwhelming cases of covid int he city and county. Rural counties do not want to deal with that shit. And they spoke. KC and STL voted for Parson, a rural dude that refused to shut the state down. Who refused to believe Covid was a bad deal, even though he got it. MO is the country is the country.
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11-03-2020, 10:38 PM | #6047 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Quote:
He just said that if Trump wins FL, OH, and NC, but Biden wins AZ, Biden is an 85% favorite. That doesn’t make sense to me. |
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11-03-2020, 10:40 PM | #6048 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Maine is coming in annoyingly slow for a relatively small state.
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11-03-2020, 10:40 PM | #6049 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Georgia
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Quote:
Because Biden is expected to take MI and WI. If he wins AZ, then he just needs ME-2 or NE-2 (or PA).
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11-03-2020, 10:41 PM | #6050 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Pacific
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That Fox dial gave Biden AR
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