2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread

[Arles]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Is it? If Biden pulls it out by taking AZ and ME-2 or NE-2, then that's one of the scenarios that made up the 89%. Part of the reason it was 89% is because Biden could lose a ton of swing states and still win.

He would also need to turn MI, WI and the two votes while keeping NV and MN. 538 better hope he gets that inside straight.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Because St louis problems dominate the headlines. Our state government had to deal with the violence in St Louis. The government had to deal with the overwhelming cases of covid int he city and county.

Rural counties do not want to deal with that shit. And they spoke. KC and STL voted for Parson, a rural dude that refused to shut the state down. Who refused to believe Covid was a bad deal, even though he got it.

MO is the country is the country.

My point was more of a rhetorical statement. Rural America, at that level, chooses to vote what they see, and they don't see issues in the cities as their issues. Thy don't believe that problems they don't have (mostly because of the homogeneous makeup) are really problems. So they have no real reason to vote for someone that they see as a threat. And by threat, someone who could bring city problems to the countryside. No matter how grounded in reality that is, when you're removed from it, it's easy to define it that way.

[ISiddiqui]

CNN pointing out that (in GA) the mail in votes in Fulton and DeKalb counties that have yet to be counted can easily make up the difference in the state.

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[Jas_lov]

I don't think Biden or Greenfield are going to make it in Iowa. They're both down 4% with 84% in.

[timmynausea]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

CNN pointing out that (in GA) the mail in votes in Fulton and DeKalb counties that have yet to be counted can easily make up the difference in the state.

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I suspect something similar is happening in Michigan. They keep showing a map with Kalamazoo County red, and I'd be very surprised if that remains the case once the mail-in ballots are counted. It was blue in 2016, for sure. I'd guess many mail-in ballots are awaiting processing in the heavily populated counties around Detroit as well. I know Michigan officials have been saying for weeks that they might need until Friday to process everything.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Arles

He would also need to turn MI, WI and the two votes while keeping NV and MN. 538 better hope he gets that inside straight.

Not sure what that has to do with my post. If Biden wins with 270-268, then that's one of the scenarios. 89% was Biden's likelihood to win. They said 29% chance of him winning in a landslide.

[tarcone]

Do you the outcome yet? This isnt going to be close unless Biden turns Texas

[Ksyrup]

5 hours after Fox called VA for Biden with like .1% of the vote in, CNN calls VA for Biden too.

[PilotMan]

It feels like NC or GA are the tipping point here. If Biden picks up either of them he should win. That sounds crazy, because a few months ago, I never would have picked either of them for Biden a few months ago. If trump takes more there than expected, and holds on to GA and NC, he will probably win. If trump does take both of those, then it comes down to assuming that MI and WI both go to Biden along with MN, then it really comes down to ME2 and NE2.

I'm not ready to call it at all. It's nowhere near where I thought it would be, if I'm being honest. But we really don't know in some of these states where the tallies are at with the early votes, absentee votes, etc. There's just not enough to really know where this is going.

[Drake]

I think we talked ourselves out of the narrative that we should all be patient because the mail-in votes were going to represent a blue shift...and I suspect that's exactly what we're going to see.

It's not what we wanted. We wanted an election night repudiation of Trumpism. We may still get a solid rejection, but it's going to take several days for that to become clear.

Which is to say that I think Georgia and NC are still in play and Ohio is going to tighten up -- even though Trump likely still wins it. Pennsylvania will be close, but I suspect Biden will squeak it out. I think Biden will take Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

I'm basing this partly on the fact that Indiana's numbers are still out of whack by percentage because the blue strongholds (Tippecanoe, Monroe, Marion) seem to have either not reported in at all or are < 40%. They won't be enough to tip Indiana, but we're not a 60/37 red state. We'll settle in more at 55/45.

[Ksyrup]

Why no votes from NV at all yet?

[tarcone]

As Willie Nelson said "Turn out the lights, the parties over"

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Do you the outcome yet? This isnt going to be close unless Biden turns Texas

Was this in response to me? Not sure what you're talking about, but nobody cares about Texas right now. Biden has multiple paths to win without it.

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Why no votes from NV at all yet?

There are 7 voting places in Vegas still open because of a court case

[Butter]

Didn't this happen in Nevada last time also?

[sterlingice]

Wiscy starting to look quite concerning for Biden.

I think it's time for me to at least pretend to sleep. Or, at least, stop doomscrolling for the night. We aren't going to know for a while. And it looks bad but who knows.

SI

[Ghost Econ]

While getting the news that my wife needs a pacemaker was the worst thing I've heard in the last 24 hours, this is running second.

[ISiddiqui]

Which is to say that I think Georgia and NC are still in play and Ohio is going to tighten up -- even though Trump likely still wins it. Pennsylvania will be close, but I suspect Biden will squeak it out. I think Biden will take Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

Agreed. I think Biden takes Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. But it'll be a few days. Which may lead to absolute craziness in the national narrative.

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[tarcone]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Was this in response to me? Not sure what you're talking about, but nobody cares about Texas right now. Biden has multiple paths to win without it.

Not a response to you. Just a general statement.

This is over. There is no way Biden wins. This race is over. If you really think Biden will win Wiscy or Michigan you are sorely mistaken.

The rural voters came out in droves AGAIN. And guess what? The polls were wrong, again.

Not happy with the results but not surprised at all.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

James Carville is saying it is going to be over by 10pm. He predicts a Biden landslide. The Good Lord knows I hope he is right.

In fairness to James, he didn't specify the date it will be over by. So as long as the final votes are counted before 10 PM on that date he will be right.

[tarcone]

Carville has had too many shots tonight.

[Jas_lov]

Carville is on MSNBC now saying to put the razor blades away. He's still predicting a win.

[Ksyrup]

And also, Biden did slide so he got that right too.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Carville has had too many shots tonight.

Oh yeah he has.

[ISiddiqui]

Looks like Biden is outperforming Hillary by about 1.5% in the average county:

https://twitter.com/kabir_here/statu...593604610?s=19

Could be really important in the upper Midwest.

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[Ksyrup]

Atlanta is done counting absentee ballots for the night. Water line break put them behind several hours.

[tarcone]

Of course he is predicting a win on MSNBC.

You know this is over irght? This isnt even going to be that close. So much optimism, which is good. But, unfortunately, optimism does not win elections against a dude who is promoting whiteness.

[Butter]

NYT Georgia needle just flipped to 62% Biden

[ISiddiqui]

Holy shit, the NYT needle just shifted massively in Georgia. It's now 62% Biden!

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[tarcone]

Fox needle at 71% Trump

[Butter]

Fox needles controlled by a drunk monkey

[bronconick]

Carville's going to be mocked for his "It'll be over by 10pm" the same way Karl Rove was for arguing over Ohio in 2012

[Butter]

Nobody listens to James Carville anymore and even if you do you can't understand half of what he says

[MrBug708]

Georgia's needle flipped to Biden on the NYT website

[tarcone]

Dont you think the Perdue/Ossoff race tells you how GA is leaning?

[thesloppy]

Oregon has legalized psilocybin and decriminalized heroin.


I am sensationalizing things a bit there, but not too much.


https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/...mushrooms.html


https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/...in-nation.html

[tarcone]

Dudes, when Im the realist on this board, this board is in trouble.

[Ghost Econ]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Dont you think the Perdue/Ossoff race tells you how GA is leaning?

You would think, but it also seems unlikely a D governor would win NC while Trump would also win NC.

[tarcone]

Shrooms are the best anti-anxiety drug out there.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Dudes, when Im the realist on this board, this board is in trouble.

Wiscy and Michigan make me really nervous right now

SI

[tarcone]

Trump wins Iowa

[wustin]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Of course he is predicting a win on MSNBC.

You know this is over irght? This isnt even going to be that close. So much optimism, which is good. But, unfortunately, optimism does not win elections against a dude who is promoting whiteness.

Exit polls have trump up with all races and both sexes compared to 2016 except for white men.

[Arles]

Biden needs to win two of MI, WI and PA. I think it’s possible, but the media really underplayed Trumps chances this year (yet again).

[wustin]

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ

You would think, but it also seems unlikely a D governor would win NC while Trump would also win NC.

I live in NC. Cooper is a flip flopper. He did a good job pandering to both sides this year.

[Butter]

So... who's watching over these Fulton Co., GA ballots tonight

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ

That someone could mark a Cooper-Trump ballot makes no sense to me

It didn’t happen in huge numbers, but I can totally see it for certain segment of the population: white collar suburbanites who think that Cooper has done well on the virus in NC, whose income isn’t hurt by the lockdowns because they can work from home, and who benefited from the Trump tax cuts. Cooper will keep them safe, and Trump helps their finances. I mean, if not for my faith/morality I’d be right there myself: Cooper represents how I want my state to handle the virus, and Trump’s tax cuts save my family several thousand dollars a year.

[lungs]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Wiscy and Michigan make me really nervous right now

SI

The only Dem stronghold almost fully reported is Dane County. Milwaukee is only at 36% reported. LaCrosse is at 27%.

Walker looked like he won in 2018 until a pile of Milwaukee votes came in.

[Vince, Pt. II]

NYT flip on GA has to be DeKalb and Fulton county having such low reporting numbers so far, right?

[ISiddiqui]

Walker looked like he won in 2018 until a pile of Milwaukee votes came in.

Right. Don't forget 2018 while we are all thinking of 2016. That's before the mail in vote.

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[tarcone]

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ

You would think, but it also seems unlikely a D governor would win NC while Trump would also win NC.

And I would buy this. BUT sometimes governor races are 2 moderates candidates from different parties.

I thought for sure that Galloway would give Parson a much better race than she did in Missouri. And she got her ass kicked.


All I can say, with no knowledge of the race in NC, is that the D had a better plan for the state. Regardless of parties.

I firmly believe in some states that party does not necessarily matter in the Governor races.