POTUS 2024 - Harris vs Trump - General Election Discussion

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Lathum

How bad of a candidate is Kari Lake that she’s 170k votes behind trumps total.

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

The short and medium term issue for Dems is that if they can't hold the Midwest and they can't win enough Hispanics to convert the Sun Belt, then there's no path to 270 anytime soon.

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

As more demographic numbers roll in, I'm not sure that there's anything the Dems could have done. The anti-incumbency wave was just too strong. Any R was almost certain to beat any D.

Every statewide D candidate is winning or running ahead of Harris in those battleground states, some of them significantly so. Are they blaming the Biden/Harris administration in a way they aren't tying in their Senators and incumbent governors or as she just a really uninspiring candidate (with frankly a poor team on the ground from what I saw)?

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Every Democratic politician who still thinks it's most important to preserve decorum and play by the (political) rules, and that the "correctness" of their policies will win out in the long run and Republicans will return to normal needs to be thrown out of politics and replaced by people who actually believe in something and will fight for it.

Even then, it probably changes nothing. This is a right-wing country comprised mainly of poorly educated and self-interested people who probably aren't interested in those policies anyway.

I disagree. It wasn't just Josh Stein beating a clown in Mark Robinson here, Dems won every statewide race, including guys like Jeff Jackson beating a semi evil but really competent sitting congressman in Dan Bishop for AG. It's probably because of MAGA overreach here in the state but they also ran on values and competency and concrete things, I feel like nationally Trump/Fox/etc has successfully painted the Dems as a party that cares more about the rights of trans/LBGTQ people and illegal immigrants who aren't in the country than their wallet. Roe v Wade backlash did carry them in 2020 but we've now had 4 years of Dems in power to change it back (they couldn't) and where it really didn't affect the vast majority of people's personal lives. The niche special interest stuff plays well in the liberal elite echo chamber which is as bad as the MAGA echo chamber these days but people here care about their rent and items at the grocery store going up in price while their wages haven't kept up. Trump may have zero plan to fix that and will in fact make it worse, but he at least plays into people's anger at that, and maybe that was too much for an incumbent administration to overcome, but clearly they need to stop focusing mainly on flipping suburban white women while taking minority men and young voters for granted.

[PilotMan]

What part of the does the party in power play regarding grocery store pricing and wages? What direct control?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

What part of the does the party in power play regarding grocery store pricing and wages? What direct control?

They of course don’t but low information uneducated voters are easily convinced they do.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

What part of the does the party in power play regarding grocery store pricing and wages? What direct control?

Of course they don't, but voters have always been that way (and arguably Trump lost in 2020 because of economic factors outside his control too). A lot of the asset inflation is tied to the massive bank parachutes at the start of Covid and a lack of regulation on banks or VC moving in to the real estate market, but Dems have no interest in fixing that or trying to tie it to Trump because the money printer was going brrrr under him even though it was a very bipartisan decision. Money was poured into the system, it's found an outlet in an increasing stock market, crypto, and real estate and eventually it trickled down to increased consumer goods prices as well.

Explaining that to people is really hard, but somehow a significant enough chunk of voters in these close races were persuaded by the local politicians while Harris and the national party lost them to a demagogue who certainly isn't laying out detailed policy proposals. Why do you think she underperformed vs them in those key states?

[thesloppy]

I really wonder how much weight that one shitty gender-reassignment-for-prisoners ad carried. It was everywhere, even here in Oregon.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

There are a lot more registered voters in 2024 than there were in 2020.

For instance, there are 300,000 more registered voters in North Carolina yet her vote total is just about even to 2020.

In Wisconsin she is up 35000 from 2020 but there are over 155,000 more registered voters before election day. And Wisconsin has same day registration which usually tacks on another 200k.

Basically if registered voters are up 5% in a state from 2020 and you're even or up only <1% from 2020, you're losing your base.

She's just shy of the record for most votes ever for a Dem in Wisconsin (just behind Obama in 2008). She's set the record for most votes for a Dem in NC.

Based on what you have said Dems have failed to turn out their base in WI every year since 2008. If that's the case it certainly isn't based on any specific position of Harris.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

I really wonder how much weight that one shitty gender-reassignment-for-prisoners ad carried. It was everywhere, even here in Oregon.

Trump folks claim it was their best ad of the year. I haven't seen any data to support that, but they claim to have it.

[BishopMVP]

There are a bunch of voters who went for D's AND Trump over Harris in 4 key states (not sure on Arizona/Nevada, while Georgia had no statewide races), I find it hard to believe the answer is simply sexism when many of those Kamala underperformed are also women. But I'd really try to drill down on those split ticket voters in swing states and figure out why they did before making sweeping generalizations or assuming those states are now lost going forward.

[JPhillips]

I'd bet a lot of the split ticket voters see their state as doing better economically than the country. There's a lot of, I'm fine but the rest of the country is going to hell.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

What part of the does the party in power play regarding grocery store pricing and wages? What direct control?

Enforcing existing antitrust laws is a good start. Many economists have pointed out that monopolies and duopolies on essential items has lead to high prices. We basically found out that the high egg prices were caused by collusion among the biggest egg producers in the country. Not a peep from the FTC or DOJ.

As for gas, not letting the Saudis walk all over us would be good. Obama did a masterful job of putting pressure on them to keep prices low (which also hurt Russia). Biden was incredibly weak in that area.

Wages is trickier and a systemic problem. Increasing the minimum wage would help but Harris blocked that from happening. Enforcing existing laws antitrust laws as to create more competition from companies. Going after companies who commit systemic wage theft. And little things like getting rid of non-competes will help, but was done 3 years too late to make a difference.

[PilotMan]

I mean, that just sounds like Communism and government intervention in the free market. Surely, the R's wouldn't suggest those things. Imagine how they would have run on too much government intervention.

How are we going to pump more when the oil and gas industry is privatized? Sounds like more government overreach.

The minimum wage is completely dead. The Rs killed that too. It will never get raised again. Each state will set the bar now.

Obama had the luxury of international prices being high enough that it was cheaper to drill and produce locally. Now that the world has caught up to that, guess what? They have the market priced right where it's just about too expensive for the US to do that and make it worthwhile. The times aren't the same.

[RainMaker]

If you don't want to enforce existing laws, that's fine. Monopolies are not free market. And I don't think people would lose sleep over their groceries getting cheaper and their wages rising.

OPEC and the Saudis control a huge chunk of the oil supply in the world. Obama threatened the Saudis with more production stateside and by not selling them weapons if they cut supply. Using that leverage, the Saudis pumped out oil which brought the cost down a ton and really ravaged Russia. It's why the Russians wanted Trump to win so bad.

The minimum wage wasn't dead. It was up for a vote and Harris killed it as President of the Senate.

These are all things that could have been done that would have helped Americans.

[cuervo72]

Which vote was it where Harris killed this?

(If it’s this one, looks like she was for it, before the parliamentarian said no, and the WH/Manchin wouldn’t endorse overriding that: https://www.peoplesworld.org/article...-minimum-wage/ https://www.motherjones.com/mojo-wir...nt-at-least-1/ ; but sure, all Harris’s fault)

[RainMaker]

It was a provision in the COVID-19 bill from 2021 that would have increased the minimum wage to $15/hour.

[JPhillips]

I don't think misogyny is the primary reason Haris lost, but I do think we're not ready yet to elect a woman. If Clinton, Haley, and Harris aren't good enough it's hard to see anyone who is.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

It was a provision in the COVID-19 bill from 2021 that would have increased the minimum wage to $15/hour.

It didn't get included in the COVID 19 package because the parliamentarian ruled it didn't fit the limitations for a reconciliation bill.

They tried to pass it on its own in May of 2021 and the GOP plus Manchin and Sinema blocked it. That's the bill where Sinema was laughing and made a big show of her no vote.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Good article, but I just want to point out something. It says "U.S. annual inflation has fallen to 2.4% in recent weeks, but the news came too late to change voters’ minds about their personal economy."


Serious question here, do people really think the average voter's opinion of the economy comes from the news? I have heard statements like this a good bit, but it is so wrong. their opinion on the economy comes from direct observation. They look at their checkbook, and what their friends and family are saying about their own checkbook. If they have more money and can pay the bills, then they are happy about the economy. If they are struggling to pay bills, they are not. Same with something like employment. If they have a job or they can find a job, employment is good. If they are out of work, and people they know are out of work, it is bad. They aren't reading as jobs report. You can shout from the roof top "unemployment is at an all time low", if they can't find a job they aren't believing you. You can say "inflation is down", but if they are paying $1400 in rent when I used to pay $900, they are going to say "bite me."

I agree but haven't we been doing this since forever?

There was a time a few years back when the stock market was hitting record highs for weeks at a time and that was supposed to be a symbol of the economy doing well. We always have these Wall Street vs Main Street conversations no matter what was going on in the family home.

I know folks don't want to hear it but it also matters who is struggling to pay their bills. For some, if they don't have more money, they are expected to get a second or third job or to cut out everything but ramen noodles. If they don't have a job, it is because they don't want to work.

[Brian Swartz]

I don't think it's new; I think it's just harder to accept this particular time because it played a role in there being a second Trump administration.

[Ghost Econ]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

I agree but haven't we been doing this since forever?

There was a time a few years back when the stock market was hitting record highs for weeks at a time and that was supposed to be a symbol of the economy doing well. We always have these Wall Street vs Main Street conversations no matter what was going on in the family home.

I know folks don't want to hear it but it also matters who is struggling to pay their bills. For some, if they don't have more money, they are expected to get a second or third job or to cut out everything but ramen noodles. If they don't have a job, it is because they don't want to work.

I agree, it's just odd they vote for the people who want to cut their wages and make them get a third or fourth job and destroy any worker protections they have.

[GrantDawg]

It is because they don't pay attention enough to know that. In an ideal world people would actually educate themselves, weigh the issues, and make reasonable and rational decisions. But many of the people we are talking about work hard and just scrape by. They are getting most their news third hand from their family, friends and co-workers. Or maybe the Joe Rogan podcast while driving to work.

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