2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread

[Subby]

Originally Posted by molson

One more wind-down firepit beer. My dog (who is dying of cancer) doesn't know what the fuck is going on, but he's loving that we're hanging out at the firepit at 12:30 AM.

Big hugs for your pup. We should all be so lucky to have firepit time with the ones we love.

[wustin]

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/...ry?id=74006694

Sarah McBride makes history as 1st transgender state senator in US

historic moment here

[Ben E Lou]

Cautiously optimistic about how the right-wing pundits and leaders react to Trump.

No, Trump has not already won the election, and it is deeply irresponsible for him to say he has.

— Ben Shapiro (@benshapiro) November 4, 2020

[wustin]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Cautiously optimistic about how the right-wing pundits and leaders react to Trump.

No, Trump has not already won the election, and it is deeply irresponsible for him to say he has.

— Ben Shapiro (@benshapiro) November 4, 2020

Don't listen to right-wing commentators. Shapiro only tweeted that to save his own ass just in case he is right. His head is so far up his own ass.

[miami_fan]

Unpopular opinion alert: I am kinda here for election week.

I know it is anxiety inducing but watching this play out in real time over a day or two along with the comparisons with 2016 is interesting to me.

[Swaggs]

Michigan is down to a 2,000 vote Trump lead.

[bhlloy]

Michigan just turned into a virtual dead heat with by far the majority of remaining ballots from blue areas... it's going to be interesting to see what options are available if he's outside the 1% threshold behind in both MI and WI by mid-morning...

[Ben E Lou]

In terms of averting violence, this situation--Trump having the lead in multiple states, claiming victory, and the mail-in ballots making the difference for Biden--is the absolute nightmare scenario.

[Ben E Lou]

RE: Turnout--Biden and Trump look assured to end up with the #1 and #2 popular vote counts of all time, surpassing Obama '08.

[miami_fan]

We talk a good bit about third party viability in the general elections.

Per NBC News third party candidates went from getting more than 5% in 2016 to 1.5% in 2020.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Michigan just turned into a virtual dead heat with by far the majority of remaining ballots from blue areas... it's going to be interesting to see what options are available if he's outside the 1% threshold behind in both MI and WI by mid-morning...

It is over. Barring something unforeseen in NV, AZ, or WI, Biden is the next President. He is going to win Michigan by a few points when all is said and done.

We weren't prepared for how overwhelming the mail in ballot advantage would be.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

We talk a good bit about third party viability in the general elections.

Per NBC News third party candidates went from getting more than 5% in 2016 to 1.5% in 2020.

Having a higher profile Libertarian and a no profile Green candidate could still potentially be the difference in some of these Midwest states.

[Lathum]

bob Woodward just said he thinks Trump will try to press the DOJ to go after the Biden family over this laptop nonsense. Thats the next step I suppose, jail your enemies and establish a dictatorship.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

It is over. Barring something unforeseen in NV, AZ, or WI, Biden is the next President. He is going to win Michigan by a few points when all is said and done.

We weren't prepared for how overwhelming the mail in ballot advantage would be.

In a normal year, with a normal candidate who wouldn't burn it all down with him I'd agree with you

[Swaggs]

Well, good luck concentrating at work today fellas. ��

[Ben E Lou]

Biden still has a solid shot at getting over 300.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Well, good luck concentrating at work today fellas. ��

I'm feeling pretty dang smart about taking Wed-Fri off. Not going anywhere. Just took them off because I had extra days and figured this would be a time that it'd be hard to be productive. (Well, and not to mention the fact that I'm not up past 9pm too often during standard time, so I knew that at a minimum I'd be exhausted today. I also took Tuesday off when UGA played in the Natty for that reason...)

[Lathum]

I don't get the hate I am seeing for pollsters in a lot of places. Twitter, etc...The election isn't over and they still could be right. Just because 538 gave Biden a 90% chance doesn't mean it would be in a landslide.

[JPhillips]

270-268 Biden looks pretty likely at the moment. Maybe 271 Biden depending on the final count in Maine.

edit: Looks like the nightmare 269-269 is off the table now.

[Lathum]

dola- PA looks bad, now I am tired and hungover, but if Trump wins PA can Biden still win?

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Well, good luck concentrating at work today fellas. ��

Wait, you did not tell your boss that responses would be a bit delayed today?

[Butter]

I'm going to have to partially agree with tarcone that PA, WI, and MI need to get their vote-counting shit together before the next election.

This exact scenario with Trump "declaring victory" when he's "ahead" even though all the votes haven't been counted is exactly what I was reading about yesterday and are part of all this chaos. If they counted all the PA mail-in votes yesterday, this wouldn't have even been a sweat.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Lathum

dola- PA looks bad, now I am tired and hungover, but if Trump wins PA can Biden still win?

Yes. Biden just needs Michogan which looks like a win.

Also Biden is the favorite to win Pennsylvania. There are tons of votes out that will be heavily Dem.

[bhlloy]

Yup - even without PA, NC and GA he'd win by 1 or 2, but it's pretty likely if all votes are counted he's getting one of those states. PA is close but given the areas that have to come in and the overwhelming blue advantage of mail-in ballots (and the fact many counties deliberately counted them last) he's got a shot.

[Lathum]

OK, thanks. I have lost track of all the scenarios. Probably because of the beer and fireball.

[wustin]

That one Nebraska vote ended up being huge.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Butter

I'm going to have to partially agree with tarcone that PA, WI, and MI need to get their vote-counting shit together before the next election.

Haven't fact-checked it, and can't right now as I'm heading out the door to take daughter to school momentarily, but I've seen it puported that in at least one of those states, the R state legislature prevented them from counting on election day.

[Brian Swartz]

I don't see how you can have mail-in votes and also expect them to be counted the day of. The inherent nature of mail-in votes means that some of them won't even get there by election day, they take longer to count, etc. I think it's good to have mail-in votes, but having that be part of the process means waiting longer. It's all part of the same package.

[bhlloy]

He's reasonably likely to win GA as well FWIW... if you look at DeKalb, Fulton and Rockdale (along with some other larger Blue counties) he's easily got the 100k+ votes there to push him into the lead, although probably not enough to avoid a recount. I'm not sure what the absentee/mail-in situation looks like in GA though. That one could be a razor thin margin.

[Ghost Econ]

Originally Posted by Butter

I'm going to have to partially agree with tarcone that PA, WI, and MI need to get their vote-counting shit together before the next election.

This exact scenario with Trump "declaring victory" when he's "ahead" even though all the votes haven't been counted is exactly what I was reading about yesterday and are part of all this chaos. If they counted all the PA mail-in votes yesterday, this wouldn't have even been a sweat.

It's mainly because the GOP legislatures in the state wouldn't let them stay counting before voting was done. This is a feature, not a bug.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I don't see how you can have mail-in votes and also expect them to be counted the day of. The inherent nature of mail-in votes means that some of them won't even get there by election day, they take longer to count, etc. I think it's good to have mail-in votes, but having that be part of the process means waiting longer. It's all part of the same package.

You can have the ones received before election day counted though... like most states did. The relatively small percentage of ones that won't get there by election day probably won't make a difference in 99% of the cases.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Surprise, surprise. Pollsters wrong again, there were some shy Trumpsters out there.

Just great, at least another day (or two) of drama.

Even if Biden wins, its evident it won't be by a large margin to indicate significant repudiation of Trump. Unfortunately, this means Trumpism will be with us for a while and likely into 2024.

I've said we can survive another 4 years of Trump. But the worst to me is the Senate with fair odds to remain GOP. That is the bad combo and another +2 to +4 years of the same.

Joe, pull this out.

No joke. Even if Biden wins the polls were worse than 2016.

[larrymcg421]

PredictIt thinks Biden will win GA now.

[Ksyrup]

I had to call it quits at 2:15. If I had stayed up to watch Trump speak I'd have been up all night fuming. Good call on my part.

For a guy who lies a lot, he certainly telegraphed what his strategy was on the election. He did exactly what he threatened to do - claim victory, call everything fraud and threaten to go to court. Although I assume the only places where there is no fraud and all votes need to be counted are the states where he's not ahead. Amazing how that happens...

[spleen1015]

I went to bed at 10:30 because things weren't going to be decided last night. I woke up at 4:30 and things have improved for Biden quite a bit since then.

Crazy to think Biden could win without FL or PA.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Haven't fact-checked it, and can't right now as I'm heading out the door to take daughter to school momentarily, but I've seen it puported that in at least one of those states, the R state legislature prevented them from counting on election day.

Well you tell your daughter she's just going to have to wait

[Butter]

Trump was as high as -500 when I was checking offshore book last night, Biden this morning is -400. I put in another bet at Biden +135 late last night. Should've got it at the pit of despair.

They're still taking wagers on 5 states, Biden is a very slight dog in GA, a big dog in NC, and a favorite in the other 3, slight in PA, huge in MI and WI

[Ksyrup]

I don't see Biden getting PA. Best case scenario is AZ/NV/WI/MI with GA to further seal it. Give Trump PA and NC and call it an election.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I don't see Biden getting PA. Best case scenario is AZ/NV/WI/MI with GA to further seal it. Give Trump PA and NC and call it an election.

That's more or less the exact scenario I was looking at last night.

[Butter]

Biden is winning the absentee ballots by 80/20, and that's the majority of what's left. Not sure why he can't win PA

[spleen1015]

I can't imagine how delaying the count of votes by a day or 2 is advantageous for anyone.

These states need to fix their processes.

Why would you save the mail in ballots for last? Why not have 2 teams of people counting votes?

[Butter]

NYT update:

Nate Cohn, in New York 2m ago

Biden has won Pennsylvania absentee ballots by an overwhelming margin so far. If he carried the remaining absentee ballots by a similar margin, he would win the state.

[Ben E Lou]

6-year-old: can you explain this like it’s a soccer game?
10-year-old: it’s going to extra time
12-year-old: And the Republicans control VAR
Mom: And there’ll be lots of injury time.

Also: pic.twitter.com/WVCyjDcUjs

— nxthompson (@nxthompson) November 4, 2020

[Ksyrup]

I suppose he can, but he's got a greater margin of error given Trump's lead. It's true that if he gets 80% of the remaining 1.4M absentee ballots, he could take the lead but that's a big ask. I guess I'm looking at the smaller margins to find the more likely victories. If he got PA too, that would be fantastic and take a lot of sting out of last night. But Trump has done so much better than most thought that I feel like a couple of these have to break his way and PA seems likely.

[ISiddiqui]

As pointed out the slow counting in Wi, Mi, PA was done on purpose. No reason these states couldn't have started counting before election day. But GOP in those states wanted to make sure the count was delayed for narrative purposes.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Butter

Well you tell your daughter she's just going to have to wait

[kingfc22]

Hopefully this is like waking up on Christmas morning as a kid.

Come on Wisconsin and Pennsylvania!

[Butter]

Nate Cohn, in New York 4:37 AM ET

This is vaguely reminiscent of 11 p.m. in 2016 ... but in reverse (and in slow motion): Biden’s the narrow favorite in PA, WI, MI, AZ, NV, GA, and it could take a while.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I don't get the hate I am seeing for pollsters in a lot of places. Twitter, etc...The election isn't over and they still could be right. Just because 538 gave Biden a 90% chance doesn't mean it would be in a landslide.

As others have said, whether Biden wins or not, it looks like the pollsters once again underestimated the support for Trump and where that support would come from. I don't think that part is controversial at this point. There is also the lack of repudiation for Trumpism that Democrats specifically were hoping for. That did not happen. That is not the fault of the pollsters per se, but the pollsters did give the impression that it is just my crazy neighbor, mother in law or co-worker who would vote for Trump. That did not turn out to be the case. The pollsters are going to get the initial backlash before people begin to silently and not so silently begin looking at their neighbors, co workers etc.. as they come to the realization that half of the people they deal with on a daily basis are polar opposites of them politically.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Even if Biden wins, its evident it won't be by a large margin to indicate significant repudiation of Trump. Unfortunately, this means Trumpism will be with us for a while and likely into 2024.

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

This, longer than that I would say. The country needed a repudiation of that and regardless of anything else, we didn't get that. My top takeaway from the election is that this is who we are as a nation.

This is who we are as a nation.

I can't disagree with any of this, sadly.

SI