2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread

[timmynausea]

I'll argue the other side: Trump is a unicorn candidate similar to the way Obama was. People just turn out for him. The "Trump lite" thing sounds good on paper, but who is it? Does he/she have decades of name recognition as a larger than life cultural figure, and then another ~10 years of reality TV stardom? Do they have that "billionaire maverick" archetype going for them that seems to intrigue the public?

I think there is one Donald Trump. And I'm glad.

[Ksyrup]

Well, seeing a graphic that WI is reporting 101% of the vote, so you can fully expect a legal battle there!

[Atocep]

Wisconsin finishes counting with Biden in the lead by 20k votes.

[Ben E Lou]

Election Conspiracy theories based on false info are already starting to get traction on the right. “How are 3.3M votes showing for WI when they only have 3.2M registered voters???” (Apparently an old screen shot is the 3.2M number. I checked their state site, and the actual number was 3.7M on 11/1, and they allow walk-up registration.

[timmynausea]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Well, seeing a graphic that WI is reporting 101% of the vote, so you can fully expect a legal battle there!

Wisconsin giving 110% for Biden. That's another turnout record.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Well, seeing a graphic that WI is reporting 101% of the vote, so you can fully expect a legal battle there!

Heh. Cross post. Same thing I saw I’ll bet. Fact check it at their state web site: November 1, 2020 Voter Registration Statistics | Wisconsin Elections Commission

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Election Conspiracy theories based on false info are already starting to get traction on the right. “How are 3.3M votes showing for WI when they only have 3.2M registered voters???” (Apparently an old screen shot is the 3.2M number. I checked their state site, and the actual number was 3.7M on 11/1, and they allow walk-up registration.

There's already some doctored images showing results dumps in excess of 100k votes all going to Biden.

[wustin]

i'm pretty sure right pundits are just making shit up on twitter

i think i read somewhere saying the national guard was help transcribing bad ballots into new ones to be fed into the machine

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

What does the Democratic Party do with the fact that Trump won the highest percentage of non-white vote for GOP since 1960? And it also kinda blows back against the whole "anti-minority" tag on Trump. Apparently - despite all evidence he provides out of his mouth - he has struck a chord with a lot of minorities.

The starting point would probably be to not have a non white minority message for a place like Dade County that has a significant non white majority. Why would the Cuban community specifically in Dade County feel that the GOP is against them?

To your larger point, the Republicans have done a very good job with black people specifically this cycle. Democrats have been warned about taking the black vote for granted. Who knows if they will listen.

[Noop]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

The starting point would probably be to not have a non white minority message for a place like Dade County that has a significant non white majority. Why would the Cuban community specifically in Dade County feel that the GOP is against them?

To your larger point, the Republicans have done a very good job with black people specifically this cycle. Democrats have been warned about taking the black vote for granted. Who knows if they will listen.

Democrats definitely take the black vote for granted. If the Republicans would have put up a candidate who doesn't embrace white supremacy I feel comfortable saying you would see alot of black men vote Republican.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by Noop

Democrats definitely take the black vote for granted. If the Republicans would have put up a candidate who doesn't embrace white supremacy I feel comfortable saying you would see alot of black men vote Republican.

The problem is if you don't have a candidate that embraces white supremacy, would you have such a strong R turnout?

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Butter

The problem is if you don't have a candidate that embraces white supremacy, would you have such a strong R turnout?

Yeah, I think someone like Tim Scott could get a lot of black vote in a Presidential race, but will he get anywhere near the same white vote to win?

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by timmynausea

I'll argue the other side: Trump is a unicorn candidate similar to the way Obama was. People just turn out for him. The "Trump lite" thing sounds good on paper, but who is it? Does he/she have decades of name recognition as a larger than life cultural figure, and then another ~10 years of reality TV stardom? Do they have that "billionaire maverick" archetype going for them that seems to intrigue the public?

I think there is one Donald Trump. And I'm glad.

FWIW, this is more or less what I think. Look at what happened in 2018 without Trump on the ballot. However, I think this election is close enough that the GOP will see the upside on doubling down and trying to expand their gains with Florida Latinos and black males.

[MrBug708]

Did Wisconsin really get 3.2 million voters out of 3.6 million registered voters? That's a fantastic turnout

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Did Wisconsin really get 3.2 million voters out of 3.6 million registered voters? That's a fantastic turnout

If you live in a swing state, your vote truly does count.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Wisconsin finishes counting with Biden in the lead by 20k votes.

The difference is less than 1% so I see no way Trump doesn't demand a recount.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

If you live in a swing state, your vote truly does count.

California gets to decide a bunch of crappy props!

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

you're looking for Trump Lite - somebody who is brash, takes no prisoners, in your face on the offense all the time, shunning irrelevancies like dignity of the office and traditional norms, but somebody who also knows how to park it when necessary.

e.

I don't think that works though. What makes Trump who he is and why his followers love him is they know he doesn't have that off switch. It makes him authentic to them.

[Brian Swartz]

It all depends on exactly why you think people voted for Trump. My opinion on the why hasn't changed much - I could be wrong but I haven't seen anything to convince me otherwhise.

I will say that I don't think the Obama comparison flies. There's a big difference in Obama and Trump's midterm performance.

[Coffee Warlord]

Tie's still on the table, too.

NV, NC, WI Blue. PA, GA, MI Red.

[albionmoonlight]

I'm still worried about AZ.

The outstanding votes are from Dem areas, but I think that they are E-day votes, which skew Trump

[ISiddiqui]

Some updates on the counting:

2020 Election: Live Results And Coverage | FiveThirtyEight

Here’s a look at what we know about the outstanding vote in each still-to-be-decided battleground state, as of 12 p.m. ET:

Arizona: While Fox News and the Associated Press have projected Arizona for Biden, the other outlets — including ABC News — have not. Before the election, officials did warn that any super-close races might not be resolved until the last votes are counted on Thursday or Friday. Biden has a 3-point lead over Trump, with 86 percent of the expected vote reported. Maricopa County, where the largest remainder of uncounted ballots are, has finished tabulating all its in-person Election Day votes and will release more results at 9 p.m. tonight.

Nevada: The race is very tight — Biden has a very slight lead — and all in-person votes have been counted. But a count of late-arriving mail ballots and provisional ballots, which tend to be Democratic, is still to come tomorrow.

Wisconsin: The Wisconsin Elections Commission Administrator has told NBC reporters that all the votes are in. If there’s nothing more to count, then Biden would seem to have won that state by 20,697 votes, but that’s still within the 1 percent margin that would allow the Trump campaign to request a recount, though. Also, just in case you’re seeing one of the many disinformation scams out there, Wisconsin has 3,684,726 active voters and counted 3,288,771 votes. ABC News has not issued a projection here, as the Decision Desk won’t project races where the margin is within 1 percentage point.

Georgia: Trump is ahead in a tight race, but significant votes are outstanding in the Atlanta metro area. The big holdups here appear to be Democratic-leaning DeKalb County, Fulton County, Gwinnett County, and Cobb County. We could have some more information relatively soon, though — Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said that he expects most of that vote to be tallied later today, per the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

Michigan: Biden holds a narrow 0.7-point margin here, and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson said around 11:30 a.m. Eastern that there are still tens of thousands of ballots to count. But the place that appears to have the most outstanding votes is heavily Democratic Wayne County (Detroit), which may make it difficult for Trump to recover here after leading throughout much of the night.

Pennsylvania: Trump is ahead by 9 points with 79 percent of the expected vote in, but the state has “millions of ballots” left to count, according to Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar. This includes about half of its mail-in ballots, which the state was not allowed to start processing until yesterday morning. Many of these votes come from Democratic-leaning areas, like Philadelphia and its collar counties, plus a handful of more Republican-leaning counties in the northwest part of the state. Going into the election, many county and state election officials predicted that results wouldn’t approach completion until Friday.

Maine: Biden leads here by about 12 points statewide, with 76 percent of the expected vote having been reported. And the ABC News Decision Desk just projected Biden to win the state’s two statewide electoral votes. He also leads in Maine’s 1st Congressional District, 61 percent to 36 percent, so Biden looks on track to get three of Maine’s electoral votes. However, Trump leads 51 percent to 45 percent in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, so he may be able to hold onto its one electoral vote. It appears that the 2nd District, which is mostly in the northern reaches of the state, is where much of the unreported votes are from. But it’s tough to say when we’ll know more, as election officials are taking much longer here than they originally expected. Moreover, because of the state’s ranked-choice voting system, any race where no candidate has a majority of first-place votes would then have to go through the reallocation process, which would take a while to complete.

North Carolina: Ninety-five percent of the expected vote has already been counted here, so it seems quite possible that all we’re waiting on are late-arriving mail-in ballots, which have until Nov. 12 to arrive. That means we could be waiting over a week for a call here.

[Jas_lov]

And why can't Nevada count the ballots until tomorrow? What the heck are they doing today? They can't have that many ballots out there.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

And why can't Nevada count the ballots until tomorrow? What the heck are they doing today? They can't have that many ballots out there.

To me, this is one of the most shocking results. I thought Biden would carry my former state in a cakewalk. It trends more Democrat with each passing election. Hillary Clinton won by 2.5% in 2016. It will be interesting to see the analysis on why it was so close.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

And why can't Nevada count the ballots until tomorrow? What the heck are they doing today?

Gamblin'

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

And why can't Nevada count the ballots until tomorrow? What the heck are they doing today? They can't have that many ballots out there.

Apparently 14% left to count... most from the 2 counties where Vegas and Reno are located. But late arriving mail ins and provisionals are to be counted.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

To me, this is one of the most shocking results. I thought Biden would carry my former state in a cakewalk. It will be interesting to see the analysis on why it was so close.

I heard speculation that a lot of casino employees have left the state due to layoffs draining the blue voters from Vegas.

[Atocep]

GOP voters are going through what Dems went through on election night 2016. The election is clearly shifting toward the opponent and they're hanging onto a scenario where they need multiple statistical oddities to align to win.

[ISiddiqui]

Trump is asking for a Wisconsin recount... but there is no way it's going to make up 20k votes.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by Atocep

GOP voters are going through what Dems went through on election night 2016. The election is clearly shifting toward the opponent and they're hanging onto a scenario where they need multiple statistical oddities to align to win.

Leon Lett strikes again

[ISiddiqui]

Georgia is now separated by 86k votes and votes from Atlanta metro counties are still coming in.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I heard speculation that a lot of casino employees have left the state due to layoffs draining the blue voters from Vegas.

That's probably true. The Las Vegas valley has changed dramatically since I first moved there in 1990. The population has gone from 750,000 to about 2.5 million. Most of that increase is with the undereducated casino/service workers who have suffered significant job losses during the pandemic.

For what it's worth, the crime rate in Las Vegas has also been on the rise, even in the so-called safe areas. We recently moved to Florida from a nice master planned community on the west side of the Las Vegas valley. When we purchased the home, almost everyone in the subdivision owned their homes. Now, about 1 out of 3 are rentals. There have been home invasions, auto thefts, vandalism, things that were almost non-existent there 10 years ago.

[Butter]

Michigan getting close to being over 1% lead. Looking like Peters is going to lose there and GOP will keep Senate control unless Wayne County brings an early XMas present of a 35,000 vote margin to him.

[timmynausea]

Originally Posted by Butter

Michigan getting close to being over 1% lead. Looking like Peters is going to lose there and GOP will keep Senate control unless Wayne County brings an early XMas present of a 35,000 vote margin to him.

Kent County (Grand Rapids) might chip in some for Peters, too. Though it's traditionally red, it went blue in the 2018 senate race, and there are mail-in ballots left to count there that could be blue-leaning as well.

[kingfc22]

Peters is now in the lead with 20% left in Wayne county so I think he eeks by.

[Butter]

Yeah, by 1100 votes. Yeesh

[Butter]

Gideon concedes to Collins in Maine.

[kingfc22]

So now the twitter trolls are talking about Sharpies in AZ...doesn't the consistent need to peddle in conspiracy theories become nauseating at some point

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Butter

The problem is if you don't have a candidate that embraces white supremacy, would you have such a strong R turnout?

See this where the relationship with the hip hop artists are instructive.

TW: race talk. because that is what was presented.

We have just seen two election cycles where a portion of the white community have said that despite the things they find objectionable about Trump, they voted for him. That includes some of the things he has said and done regarding race. For many in that community they believe that he will be more beneficial to them financially compared to Biden.

Now we can argue back and forth about the existence/significance of white supremacy among those on the right in 2020 and we definitely do. What does not get discussed nearly as often as the existence/significance of white supremacy on the left. It really only comes up when those on the right bring up both sides. I leave it to you to argue about whether it is there on both sides and how much is there. I assure you that it is discussed among the black community. My read is that there is a significant portion of the black community who believe that there is not that much of a difference in the white supremacy on the left and the white supremacy on the right. Ice Cube for example has been part of that portion for decades as have many of the rappers of his era.

If you are a part of the portion of the black community that holds the belief that white supremacy is in both political parties, that it is something you find objectionable with both sides, and that it is something you will have to deal with for the foreseeable future from both sides, what will get you to vote? The Republicans are making is if you have to deal with white supremacy anyway that you might as well go with the side that will get you paid. The Democrats' argument has been making we will get rid of the white supremacy, just watch. That argument has been ringing hollow for a while and it is beginning to cost the Democrats at the ballot box.

[Butter]

I appreciate your point, but then you run into the same problem that whites have, which is Republicans aren't getting anyone paid except the wealthy. So I guess they're being successful in getting people to either pretend they're wealthy enough to need tax cuts or will be someday vs. voting in their own actual interest... it's a trick the GOP has been pulling for many years.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

The Democrats' argument has been making we will get rid of the white supremacy, just watch. That argument has been ringing hollow for a while and it is beginning to cost the Democrats at the ballot box.

The democrats have been making this argument for decades. A large percentage of the republican base is convinced that the democrats actually want the scourge of white supremacy to continue, lest it cost them guaranteed votes from a substantial portion of their electorate.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

See this where the relationship with the hip hop artists are instructive.

TW: race talk. because that is what was presented.

We have just seen two election cycles where a portion of the white community have said that despite the things they find objectionable about Trump, they voted for him. That includes some of the things he has said and done regarding race. For many in that community they believe that he will be more beneficial to them financially compared to Biden.

Now we can argue back and forth about the existence/significance of white supremacy among those on the right in 2020 and we definitely do. What does not get discussed nearly as often as the existence/significance of white supremacy on the left. It really only comes up when those on the right bring up both sides. I leave it to you to argue about whether it is there on both sides and how much is there. I assure you that it is discussed among the black community. My read is that there is a significant portion of the black community who believe that there is not that much of a difference in the white supremacy on the left and the white supremacy on the right. Ice Cube for example has been part of that portion for decades as have many of the rappers of his era.

If you are a part of the portion of the black community that holds the belief that white supremacy is in both political parties, that it is something you find objectionable with both sides, and that it is something you will have to deal with for the foreseeable future from both sides, what will get you to vote? The Republicans are making is if you have to deal with white supremacy anyway that you might as well go with the side that will get you paid. The Democrats' argument has been making we will get rid of the white supremacy, just watch. That argument has been ringing hollow for a while and it is beginning to cost the Democrats at the ballot box.

Not saying this is baseless, but does it have to be that 'deep' ? Especially since it's not a case of blacks just not voting or on the face of it switching their votes but simply more of a + for Trump than Biden (tell me if i am utterly wrong in terms of numbers)

I mean, of course there are also black (or latino or other groups) voters who are doing well and are looking out for No1. Thus voting due to buying into the reputation re: Economy or are kinda happy about less immigration/refugees happening for some of the same reasons/fears as whites are.
Or might actually agree with the "individual freedom" stance re: Covid. Or are gun nuts.

People are people, not always fitting neatly into categories or being guided by one specific thing/issue over all others.

[wustin]

Error in Arizona: 86 percent of vote in, not 98 percent | TheHill

Originally Posted by thehill.com

Error in Arizona: 86 percent of vote in, not 98 percent

the ride never ends! Biden has a <100K lead on trump

[Toddzilla]

Every single poll taken of the Maine Senate race had Gideon beating Collings - ALL OF THEM. Yet in the end Collins *crushed* Gideon. This isn't a matter of polling not being able to see the supposed "hidden Trump voter", it's a systemic blind spot that polling cannot account for and cannot answer.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by wustin

Error in Arizona: 86 percent of vote in, not 98 percent | TheHill



the ride never ends! Biden has a <100K lead on trump

This came out early this morning, but just about every analysis has said the remaining votes are in Maricopa County (and mail in votes) so very unlikely Trump can come back in Arizona.

[Lathum]

CNN just called Wisconsin for Biden.

[Ironhead]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

This came out early this morning, but just about every analysis has said the remaining votes are in Maricopa County (and mail in votes) so very unlikely Trump can come back in Arizona.

Something I have been trying to find on this - of the votes left to count are they all same day votes or are they mail in votes? Just trying to figure out which way they may break.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

This came out early this morning, but just about every analysis has said the remaining votes are in Maricopa County (and mail in votes) so very unlikely Trump can come back in Arizona.

A lot of those here were election day drop offs though, which could favor the GOP, when the normal trend is heavily Dem with these ballots. It is going to keep it uncomfortably close.

[BYU 14]

Dola, I am aware of several friends that voted Biden, that dropped off yesterday too.

[thesloppy]

The timing of the Ice Cube kerfuffle seems like it actually worked out well to highlight that the 'Platinum Plan' was the rare piece of 2020 Trump policy that actually has a solid plan behind it, whereas the Dems were seemingly hoping to coast on a message of "Just trust us".