Werewolf XCVI: The Dark One and The Order of Righteousness (GAME OVER EVIL WINS)

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Yeah, but he's not quiet like USFL/ntn/etc. The kind of quiet that is detrimental to the village. If I'm going to vote to encourage someone to change behavior I'm going to do it to someone that's not useful. SnDvls has historically been a useful villager.

Agreed there, if you're aiming to get an extremely quiet, non-participatory type player to get in the game, SnDvls should not be on the shortlist of players to go after. But he sure ain't no hoops o' postin' either.

Speaking of which, is ntn in this game?

[KWhit]

Day 2 Vote Count:

BK Jail - 4 - Lathum (497), MartinD (527), Sndvls (532), lerriuqs (547)
SnDvls Jail - 1 - Autumn (494)
Clap Lynch - 2 - Saldana (503), Jackal (560)
Clap Jail - 1 - USFL (528)
USFL Jail - 1 - Tyrith (542)
USFL lynch - 2 - path12 (557), Schmidty (558)
Saldana Jail - 1 - KWhit (585)



(Forgot to put the "1" beside Saldana's name)

[Autumn]

Good points everyone. It's well balanced I think in the sense that each part of the game requires a hard decisoin from us and the wolves.

[Chief Rum]

Those of you voting jail and not for voting BK (or at least over other candidates), perhaps we could get some consolidation? Look at the candidates at hand and make a move toward them, to at least get another candidate up with BK?

[RendeR]

I have not voted yet and I too will be voting to jail someone.

I am starting to agree with those saying lets NOT jail BK since that puts the two initial parties of suspicion under one anothers control.

I'm thinking I'll put my vote on clap because his entire argument earlier today was utter shyte. It might have just been him being confused but he tends to be a sharper stick than that.

[USFLTecmo]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I find it a little interesting that I posted four possible "quiet" targets and picked one myself, Sndvls. Then several people have come in and targeted USFL instead with no reasoning. Why start a new quiet target rather than capitalizing on the one with one vote already?

Because they know I'm usually not around at the deadline, so they feel a lot safer cherrypicking me than others. That, and they can play the "he's UTR" card, then push the vote on me to critical mass too late for anyone to really have time to think things over. I've seen the same thing happen three times already. I'm not surprised at all if it happens again. Beware anyone pushing my lynch. When I'm cleared as a villager, look back and check this out.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

And as it comes to the other two - lerr was talkative last game, Martin was somewhat talkative and voting for him to try to get him to talk is counterproductive if he's already gone to bed. This hasn't been a terribly exciting game so far, so I'm willing to give someone a pass for not being too talkative now.

So Autumn, you posted a list of four people - how come you picked SnDvls and not one of the others, knowing he hasn't played in a long time?

I gave my reasoning at the time, I haven't played with Sndvl, while the other three I know are typically quiet and I've been at them for the last few games about it.

My thinking is apparently opposite of yours, if Sndvls isn't normally quiet and is a player with a good reputation than I would be more likely to go after him for being suspiciously quiet, not give him a pass.

[Tyrith]

I mean, given all my choices here, this is about how I'd rank them -

USFL jail
clap lynch
USFL lynch
BK jail

I would really prefer to leave BK alone at this point, when we deal with Schmidty we'll deal with BK. USFL is the aforementioned argument, and keeping people alive seems to be in the village's favor at this point. clap, on the other hand, seems like he's going to be loose this game regardless, so I don't really care to keep him alive. I'd rather have the vote record.

BTW, we're likely going to have day 1 version 3 tomorrow unless something interesting happens, and we need to keep that in mind.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I gave my reasoning at the time, I haven't played with Sndvl, while the other three I know are typically quiet and I've been at them for the last few games about it.

My thinking is apparently opposite of yours, if Sndvls isn't normally quiet and is a player with a good reputation than I would be more likely to go after him for being suspiciously quiet, not give him a pass.

This isn't suspicious quiet. There's just nothign to talk about, and he's not going to change his pattern because of this. I'm thinking long term - for the good of the game, villagers need to learn to be useful players.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Those of you voting jail and not for voting BK (or at least over other candidates), perhaps we could get some consolidation? Look at the candidates at hand and make a move toward them, to at least get another candidate up with BK?

I'd be glad to do that. I won't consolidate on USFL due to my suspicions. Clap I am guessing is getting attention just for being kind of off the wall this game, but I have the impression that's not necessarily unusual. I'd be willing to consider going to him though. My first choice is obviously Sndvls who has been quiet and still hasn't offered anything at all.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

I think there advantages and disadvantages of putting people in jail. were it up to me, I would just go on lynching, and ignore that aspect all together. its just an extra complication that gives us little to no information.

really? i'm still catching up from my busy day and only at this point, but based on this i'm ready to throw clap in jail or even lynch him

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

This isn't suspicious quiet. There's just nothign to talk about, and he's not going to change his pattern because of this. I'm thinking long term - for the good of the game, villagers need to learn to be useful players.

Maybe there's nothing to talk about, but a lot of us are still trying. And Sndvls knew he had at least one vote on him, came in and offered nothing other than "I'm a vanilla villager so I don't have anything to talk about." That's not, as I said, much to encourage me to take my vote off of him. The only thing vanilla villagers can do is talk in order to win this game.

[Tyrith]

I think if we deal with clap we give him his wish and string him - make his put his money where his mouth is, get some information.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

BTW, we're likely going to have day 1 version 3 tomorrow unless something interesting happens, and we need to keep that in mind.

I'm not getting the constant nagging about this. So what? Based on the ruleset we've been given this is not a bad situation to be in. We keep building our research base (using the jail mechanic)and in time its going to benefit us. I'm just not understanding the seeming instinctual drive to off players without knowing anything about them.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

BTW, we're likely going to have day 1 version 3 tomorrow unless something interesting happens, and we need to keep that in mind.

The strategy we're looking at requires some patience, and part of that will liekly be enduring a day or two of "Day One" style votes. It comes with the territory of going with a jail strategy. The question will be if our efforts bear fruit before those really pushing for a lynch get enough support to override the top jail votes.

It's 50-50 in my mind. I haven't noted people for being patient around here.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Maybe there's nothing to talk about, but a lot of us are still trying. And Sndvls knew he had at least one vote on him, came in and offered nothing other than "I'm a vanilla villager so I don't have anything to talk about." That's not, as I said, much to encourage me to take my vote off of him. The only thing vanilla villagers can do is talk in order to win this game.

Exactly, but I'd much rather teach that lesson to someone who can still learn it than someone that has played for years.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

The strategy we're looking at requires some patience, and part of that will liekly be enduring a day or two of "Day One" style votes. It comes with the territory of going with a jail strategy. The question will be if our efforts bear fruit before those really pushing for a lynch get enough support to override the top jail votes.

It's 50-50 in my mind. I haven't noted people for being patient around here.

I'm not being impatient, merely noting a fact that this plan isn't all puppy dogs and rainbows. We are paying a price for our free chance at extra scans. In essence, we are trading voting record access and quality for scan chances.

[Telle]

VOTE CLAPHAMSA JAIL

We need a second jail candidate.

[USFLTecmo]

I'm suspicious of anyone that's advocating a lynch rather than jail for anyone at this point.

[Chief Rum]

I was struck oddly by clap's response as well, although he admittedly does often hit the wrong chord with people (not in a bad way, but in a "you're suspicious" way). His Render vote seemed a bit out there to me.

My candidate for King yesterday was Danny, and I don't think he has voted yet. I would be interested in hearing his thoughts, as he usually seems to have a rational approach to complicated mechanics like this.

[DaddyTorgo]

i'm leaning towards voting jail clap at this point (catching up - 15 minutes behind current).

sorry i wasn't around all day - my afternoon was packed

[USFLTecmo]

I'm off for a while. I'd suggest those with actual lynch votes change them to jailings. The math is in our favor that way.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

I'm not being impatient, merely noting a fact that this plan isn't all puppy dogs and rainbows. We are paying a price for our free chance at extra scans. In essence, we are trading voting record access and quality for scan chances.

There is certainly a trade off. However, I disagree that the jail votes will have no value when someone's aura comes up good or bad. I doubt the wolves are interested anymore than the rest of us in having one of their own in the jail and possibly dead at the hands of the King.

[DaddyTorgo]

VOTE JAIL CLAP

okay i'm caught up now

[Autumn]

It seems we've got more momentum for putting clap in jail than any other candidate. I don't know if that makes me more or less interested in going along with it but I certainly want to see something decisive being done.

[Chief Rum]

I may be leaving soon, so I will put in a vote now as well. I think we're still one short, but at least it will give us an option.

VOTE JAIL CLAP

He might be suspicious, or he might just be clap. But at least this way we have a chance to test him out without immediately dooming him to the villager sideline without more cause.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

There is certainly a trade off. However, I disagree that the jail votes will have no value when someone's aura comes up good or bad. I doubt the wolves are interested anymore than the rest of us in having one of their own in the jail and possibly dead at the hands of the King.

It's not no value, but it's less value because there have been no previous votes to inform the village/force the wolves to do anything. We'll have some day 1/day 1.5 votes instead of a typically voting curve.

[Tyrith]

Fine, I can cope with this choice.

UNVOTE JAIL USFLTEMCO
VOTE JAIL CLAP

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Autumn

It seems we've got more momentum for putting clap in jail than any other candidate. I don't know if that makes me more or less interested in going along with it but I certainly want to see something decisive being done.

Schmidty's not on either candidate right now, I don't believe. Was it stated what the tie mechanic is if the King is not on a tied candidate nor is around at deadline to make a lynch choice? I would really rather not have no jail/lynch candidate (as often happens with ties). Then we really gain nothing from today at all.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

It's not no value, but it's less value because there have been no previous votes to inform the village/force the wolves to do anything. We'll have some day 1/day 1.5 votes instead of a typically voting curve.

This goes back to what I was saying before. This is not a strategy people who want action now will be anxious for. I understand it's a tough sell. I'm not certain it's the best way to handle things either, but right now, it seems the better choice to me.

[KWhit]

I want to join in with the jail clap vote, but at this point is it just piling on.

As I said before, I want to vote for a pro-lynch candidate which clap definitely is.

But I don't want to pile on.. Let me check the vote count.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

This goes back to what I was saying before. This is not a strategy people who want action now will be anxious for. I understand it's a tough sell. I'm not certain it's the best way to handle things either, but right now, it seems the better choice to me.

Agreed. There are just some people that are hyper against the lynch plan and seem to be aiming to use opinions in this regard against the lynch group - which makes me suspicious of the suspectors.

[RendeR]

I don't have much isue with a pile on at this point but I am holding my vote for now to see what shenanigans come about.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

This goes back to what I was saying before. This is not a strategy people who want action now will be anxious for. I understand it's a tough sell. I'm not certain it's the best way to handle things either, but right now, it seems the better choice to me.

I know I keep harping on it, but I think it's a no-brainer. I feel that it is very strongly the better play at this point.

It does give us voting history, just delayed by 2-3 days or so. Wolves will not want their guy going into the jail since given time, he will be revealed. So the voting history does matter and it will tell us something, but it will just take a few days before it all becomes clear.

But while that is going on, we're learning a lot and we're giving the real seer a chance to make some scans. And we get a chance to correct our inevitable early voting mistakes. It's win-win-win, I tell you!

[Autumn]

All right, well I can go with a Clap vote and would rather not do a BK one, so I'll give it a margin of two (by my count)

UNVOTE SNDVL
VOTE CLAP TO JAIL

[Autumn]

That said, I'm still wondering about Sndvl and will probably make a new case for him tomorrow unless something comes up.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Agreed. There are just some people that are hyper against the lynch plan and seem to be aiming to use opinions in this regard against the lynch group - which makes me suspicious of the suspectors.

That's probably directed at me, which is fine, but if we jail the people we are suspicious of (instead of lynching) there's no harm-no foul because they will be revealed as good guys soon enough.

We'll all make mistakes with our votes early on, but this way we can correct them.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Agreed. There are just some people that are hyper against the lynch plan and seem to be aiming to use opinions in this regard against the lynch group - which makes me suspicious of the suspectors.

Actually, I agree with you here on this. I have seen that, and ti does seem over the top to me. It's something I'll be keeping an eye on.

I view those who want to lynch as just coming down on the other side of a discussion of strategy in this one, no more, no less. We haven't played the mechanic out enough, IMO, to star making grand pronouncements about the good/bad nature of either strategy, or the relative wolfishness of anyone supporting either side purely out of their backing for said strategy.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Actually, I agree with you here on this. I have seen that, and ti does seem over the top to me. It's something I'll be keeping an eye on.

I view those who want to lynch as just coming down on the other side of a discussion of strategy in this one, no more, no less. We haven't played the mechanic out enough, IMO, to star making grand pronouncements about the good/bad nature of either strategy, or the relative wolfishness of anyone supporting either side purely out of their backing for said strategy.

Okay, I'm glad we see eye to eye here.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Actually, I agree with you here on this. I have seen that, and ti does seem over the top to me. It's something I'll be keeping an eye on.

I view those who want to lynch as just coming down on the other side of a discussion of strategy in this one, no more, no less. We haven't played the mechanic out enough, IMO, to star making grand pronouncements about the good/bad nature of either strategy, or the relative wolfishness of anyone supporting either side purely out of their backing for said strategy.

Let's chat about this for a second, because I'm clearly the most vocal supporter of the Jail-First Party.

I see the jail mechanic as set up in this game a significant benefit to the villagers. You only seem to believe it is mildly a benefit. Why so?

When I really sat down and started thinking about it, I started thinking that it is almost TOO GOOD for the village and may be overpowered (not that I'm complaining, I'll use whatever tools are in the rules to win).

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Autumn

That said, I'm still wondering about Sndvl and will probably make a new case for him tomorrow unless something comes up.

I'm not saying SnDvls isn't a wolf. I really don't have anything but a completely middle ground opinion of his allegiance at this point (as with most everyone in the game, this early). But I do think you're pushing his candidacy for reasons that are out of sorts with what we know about his past play (which I know you're not familiar with) and with what he stated he would be doing today IRL (the twins' b-day).

His posting behavior, IMO, is about consistent with someone who normally posts at an at best low moderate level anyway, then cut short by outside-game influences. If it's something he is saying that is making you suspicious, then by all means, run with it. But if your lone basis is a number of posts/participation at this point, I really think you're barking up the wrong tree in this specific instance (without further evidence otherwise).

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Actually, I agree with you here on this. I have seen that, and ti does seem over the top to me. It's something I'll be keeping an eye on.

I view those who want to lynch as just coming down on the other side of a discussion of strategy in this one, no more, no less. We haven't played the mechanic out enough, IMO, to star making grand pronouncements about the good/bad nature of either strategy, or the relative wolfishness of anyone supporting either side purely out of their backing for said strategy.

Oh and one more point. I'm using it as a way to base my vote because at this point it's something. It's better than nothing which is pretty much the only other thing we can really base a vote on at this point.

Given any shred of other evidence against someone else, I'd gladly take that as opposed to my thinking on voting for a pro-lynch advocate at this point.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Let's chat about this for a second, because I'm clearly the most vocal supporter of the Jail-First Party.

I see the jail mechanic as set up in this game a significant benefit to the villagers. You only seem to believe it is mildly a benefit. Why so?

When I really sat down and started thinking about it, I started thinking that it is almost TOO GOOD for the village and may be overpowered (not that I'm complaining, I'll use whatever tools are in the rules to win).

For me, it's mostly about all the counter balances in this game. There are tons of ifs and ors in those rules, and a lot of them have to do with the prison, the King, the seer, the Dark One, the Righteous Order, etc.

Point is, it's a strategy with some obvious potential benefits, but the lack of 100% clears combined with only wolves doing killing are two distinct disadvantages to the plan. I am for it, keep in mind, but I understand why for some it's not the end all, be all it may appear to be. Especially if they're not inclined to wait for results. If someone is rushing to lynch, I might call them impatient. But I hardly see it as a reason at this point to believe that merely calling for a lynch must then label one as suspicious. That's too much of a leap for me right now, and actualyl seeing people making that leap anyway--that does strike me odd.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I'm not saying SnDvls isn't a wolf. I really don't have anything but a completely middle ground opinion of his allegiance at this point (as with most everyone in the game, this early). But I do think you're pushing his candidacy for reasons that are out of sorts with what we know about his past play (which I know you're not familiar with) and with what he stated he would be doing today IRL (the twins' b-day).

His posting behavior, IMO, is about consistent with someone who normally posts at an at best low moderate level anyway, then cut short by outside-game influences. If it's something he is saying that is making you suspicious, then by all means, run with it. But if your lone basis is a number of posts/participation at this point, I really think you're barking up the wrong tree in this specific instance (without further evidence otherwise).

My suspicion (and it isn't really anything reaching any serious suspicion) is that when I targeted him as a Quiet candidate it seemed that people jumped on another one, making me think maybe i Had stubmled on a wolf.

Secondly, the only thing he said today stated taht A) the twins' birthday wasn't going to affect him during the day and B) that he was a vanilla villager and so had nothing to say.

Now, maybe this is completely par for the course for him, as you say. But as someone who was getting flak for being quiet I thought that was a completely ineffective defense. It raised more suspicion for me than it quelled.

That's all I'm going on, and I agree it's not much of anything but it makes me think it's worth making him a candidate and seeing if I'm right that people seemed leery of voting for him.

[KWhit]

Another point about the jail mechanic.

After a few days, one of two things will happen.

We'll find a wolf, in which case we lynch the hell out of it, or we begin to form a COT.

And we get these identifications safely, meaning the real seer doesn't have to reveal himself to identify who's good and who's bad, since the king can do it without fear of retribution from the wolves.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Another point about the jail mechanic.

After a few days, one of two things will happen.

We'll find a wolf, in which case we lynch the hell out of it, or we begin to form a COT.

And we get these identifications safely, meaning the real seer doesn't have to reveal himself to identify who's good and who's bad, since the king can do it without fear of retribution from the wolves.

Of course this depends on putting the King in the COT to begin with.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Oh and one more point. I'm using it as a way to base my vote because at this point it's something. It's better than nothing which is pretty much the only other thing we can really base a vote on at this point.

Given any shred of other evidence against someone else, I'd gladly take that as opposed to my thinking on voting for a pro-lynch advocate at this point.

But you see, it's the certainty some have displayed about the suspicious wolfishness of pro-lynchers that makes it odd.

What you're saying here is that in the absence of much information, we must apply what we do know, no matter how little, to come up with the best decision (and I agree with this), the essence of a Day One style vote, really.

So when so little information is available, doesn't it seem over the top for someone to say with conviction that another person must be a wolf or is likely a wolf, just based on one strategy discussion early in the game?

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

For me, it's mostly about all the counter balances in this game. There are tons of ifs and ors in those rules, and a lot of them have to do with the prison, the King, the seer, the Dark One, the Righteous Order, etc.

Point is, it's a strategy with some obvious potential benefits, but the lack of 100% clears combined with only wolves doing killing are two distinct disadvantages to the plan. I am for it, keep in mind, but I understand why for some it's not the end all, be all it may appear to be. Especially if they're not inclined to wait for results. If someone is rushing to lynch, I might call them impatient. But I hardly see it as a reason at this point to believe that merely calling for a lynch must then label one as suspicious. That's too much of a leap for me right now, and actualyl seeing people making that leap anyway--that does strike me odd.

Well, sure, I agree it's not much. But I think that impatience is a wolf-benefiting strategy right now and one that triggers my wolf-dar more than any other argument for a vote so far. I mean, I still don't get the argument for voting BK right now (or anyone else really at this point).

[Autumn]

Another point to keep in mind, The Dark One. There is an advantage in it for hte wolves to push jailing, as if the Dark One gets jailed he may get cleared (cunning) and released and put in the COT. Much better than him getting lynched.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Another point about the jail mechanic.

After a few days, one of two things will happen.

We'll find a wolf, in which case we lynch the hell out of it, or we begin to form a COT.

And we get these identifications safely, meaning the real seer doesn't have to reveal himself to identify who's good and who's bad, since the king can do it without fear of retribution from the wolves.

There are some assumptions here. That the RNG will do what we want it to. That the wolves won't start killing the prisoners. That our king can be trusted.