NFL 2023 Offseason/Free Agency/Draft Thread

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I bet they just asked an AI to generate the uniforms.

Heh. More reasons then to stop the AI before they take over the world.

[Solecismic]

Packers get a 13/15 switch, a second this year and a second next year that becomes a first if Rodgers is the primary starter for New York this year.

Seems like a lot for someone his age whose bridges were burned, but that's the quarterback market these days.

It's rumored the Titans want to lose Tannehill. I think that was the rumor at least five years before they got him, but Tannehill has always been that guy, for some reason.

Not much still out there to settle. The remaining free agents are looking at primary backup deals, and that might require assessing where the prospects go this week.

[Carman Bulldog]

I agree, a 1st (assuming he plays 65% of snaps) and a 2nd seems too rich, and then the pick swap on top of that. In one sense, maybe that's what the market is. Yet in another sense, I'm not sure there were any other suitors.

From my perspective, this came down to the Jets blinking first. And in fairness to them, they somewhat had to. I don't think Rodgers was playing for the Packers this year under any circumstances, but Green Bay had more leverage to play the waiting game and dealt him come training camp or the exhibition season. That would have put the Jets behind the eight ball as opposed to him coming in now and having a full off-season. It may have opened up the door for another team to move in as well in the instance of a training camp or early season injury.

[Danny]

Plus if they waited its possible Rodgers just said screw it I'm retiring

[JonInMiddleGA]

Not sure the pick swap this year is that big a deal, is it?

I mean going from 13 to 15, looks like they were projected to take an OT before the trade, they're projected to take an OT after the trade, quite possibly the same one they would have taken at 13.

[JPhillips]

The latest draft chart gives the value from 15 to 13 at about the first pick of the fourth round.

[stevew]

I think Pittsburgh wants to trade up for OL so dropping back might make it more possible for them to get leapfrogged on OL. Otherwise no big deal on the trade down.

[NobodyHere]

Does the Aaron Rodgers trade mean that we don't have to hear about Aaron Rodgers for the next 3 months?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by stevew

I think Pittsburgh wants to trade up for OL so dropping back might make it more possible for them to get leapfrogged on OL. Otherwise no big deal on the trade down.

Seems like the difference is probably whether they take a chance on the guy from UT or the guy from UGA (based on draft projections, sequences, etc). Johnson & Skoronski are likely both gone before 13 or 15 come up. If the other two are gone, they probably look to trade down a few more spots instead of overslotting Harrison from OU

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

The latest draft chart gives the value from 15 to 13 at about the first pick of the fourth round.

But that's really in kind of a vacuum. I mean, if the same player you were gonna take at 13 is there at 15 then the loss is pretty much zero.

[JPhillips]

Well, a fourth-round pick probably doesn't have much value. There are a higher percentage of undrafted starters than fourth-round starters.

[bhlloy]

It’s what is reasonably likely (as likely as can be with the health of a 40 year old QB at least) to be a first rounder next year that is the real overpay. Rodgers was not going to be on the Packers roster next season and he was not going anywhere except the Jets.

To give up an as yet undetermined first rounder in that scenario seems absolute madness to me, but maybe expected when both sides do their negotiations in the media. I guess Rodgers doesn’t care about what a 2024 first rounder means to him personally but can’t help thinking the Jets could have managed all of this significantly better.

Also disagree that the Packers had more leverage than the Jets. There are or were other QB options (one who is notably a better player right now although would have cost more). The Packers had no other options to get him off the roster other than the Jets and no option to have him on the roster past a certain point.

[Solecismic]

It's a stretch, but what if one of the teams that is definitely going to pick a quarterback comes to the conclusion that none of the available quarterbacks rates high enough to start in the NFL?

This has been the reality more often than not in the NFL, whether teams forced to draft these players admit it or not. Zach Wilson was the second overall pick two years ago, and perhaps the Jets should have come to that conclusion.

So let's say Houston doesn't get their guy, decides an impact defensive lineman is the better pick, and comes out of the draft wondering if they can swing the trade for Rodgers?

As soon as there's real competition, leverage switches. I don't think either team ever had as much leverage as analysts might have thought. I do not understand why Green Bay ever felt the need to swallow a cap bomb in order to pay Rodgers the going rate for more than a year or two. They could have paid him, then traded him without the bomb, using the franchise tag if he didn't cooperate. They would have gotten a lot more that way, and would be out from under it now, probably with the Jets' first-rounder without giving up their own as the Jets wouldn't have to swallow anything, either.

Cleveland broke the league when they rewarded Watson despite him pulling all that b.s. right after signing a big contract. It will take a while to sort out.

[tzach]

rodgers played his contract situation quite well. lamar jackson should have taken notes.



- rodgers threatened to sit/retire/be traded before the 2021 season. this was the offseason after jordan love had been drafted.

- contract is reworked n 2021 to convince rodgers to come back. no new money, but last yr of that contract (2023) now voids 1 day after the franchise tag deadline. so he couldn't be tagged. for practical purposes, he got a no tag clause.
- he already had the equivalent of a no trade clause since he could simply retire if traded against his will.

- who can blame gby? they had been to two straight NFC championship games following 13-3 seasons. they ended up engineering another 13-4 season in 2021.

- in 2022 gby were sucked into a bad contract after 3 straight 13-win seasons. they had no other choice. it was either that or lose rodgers for free next season. may rodgers threatened them again to retire, who knows. hard to blame them again to go for the big shot instead of rebuilding at that point. their only hope was to find a bigger sucker in 2023, which they ultimately did.

[tzach]

from the jets perspective, this is a desperate move by a desperate franchise. the conditional trigger of the trade tells all we need to know to infer who had leverage. they are trading a fut 1st+2.13, playing in a strong division where they are probably #3 right now. this is assuming NED doesn't improve their offense with bill o'brien.



it's a lifeline for joe douglas and robert saleh, who are entering their 3rd season and drafted zach wilson 2 yrs ago. i presume the strong draft class last yr and the season performance before breece hall went down convinced the owner to keep them.

[Swaggs]

I'd give Green Bay an A and NYJ an incomplete on this one.

They got 15-years of MVP level play from the 24th overall pick and turned him into essentially two 2nd rounders prior to his age 39 season. Plus, the trade up of firsts and possibly moving one of the 2nds into a first. Well done. The only thing I don't love for them, as a franchise, is that they are in kind of a weird spot with Love. If he is great this season, he only has one more year on a first year contract. If he isn't great this season, then we are back to square one.

For the Jets, I'm not sure what would be considered a win here. If they think that he is that big of a difference maker, that sort of implies that they think they are already a playoff threat and need the push over the top. I think there is a pretty good chance that they are a borderline playoff team with or without him and may be more on the inside now than they were, but if they lose in the first round or win one and then go out, is that a good enough return for what they will have given up (assuming that the pick turns into a #1 if Rodgers plays enough to get them into the playoffs)? I'm not so sure they were one QB away from being better than the Chiefs, Bills, or Bengals and it also seems like all of the AFC East teams are in Win Now mode.

[QuikSand]

Good article on the draft, via The Athletic (subscribers only).

NFL Draft 2023 Confidential: Coaches dish on C.J. Stroud, Will Anderson, Anthony Richardson and more - The Athletic

The comments on Richardson have me continuing to increase my interest in him, I now think I buy the line that he's actually the right guy to put your money into of this lot. Super high ceiling merits the risk of there being no floor at all.

[Ryche]

I have definitely come around on Richardson, if the Vikings end up drafting a QB in the first round, I'm hoping it's him. No chance of that happening though unless he falls to at least 10.

Feels like Carolina, Indy and Tennessee are coming out of the first round with QBs. Outside of those teams, there are a ton of teams who could grab one but don't have to. Houston might be sitting back to grab a QB that falls at 12 but it wouldn't surprise me if they just wait until next season and make their defense into a monster instead.

[albionmoonlight]

Richardson running that Arthur Smith offense in Atlanta could be pretty scary.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Good article on the draft, via The Athletic (subscribers only).

NFL Draft 2023 Confidential: Coaches dish on C.J. Stroud, Will Anderson, Anthony Richardson and more - The Athletic

The comments on Richardson have me continuing to increase my interest in him, I now think I buy the line that he's actually the right guy to put your money into of this lot. Super high ceiling merits the risk of there being no floor at all.

That is a really good article. Shows what scouts really look at and that college schemes are really, really important for what they see (and don't see) and how they evaluate.

From what I am reading, it looks like Richardson is underrated and maybe Darnell Wright is going to go higher than a lot of folks are expecting.

On defense, it seems like Emmanuel Forbes is on the radar to scouts a whole lot more than the mocks realize. Seems like he had some of the most glowing reports on his athleticism. And Will McDonald might leapfrog some better known edge players.

[Atocep]

I've read there's a growing a belief that the Texans go with the top defensive player on their board rather than QB and that the Colts are in love with Levis.


If the Texans pass on a qb, the Cardinals aren't able to trade out of the 3rd pick, it gets interesting. I'm assuming the Colts love for Levis is at least partially based on the belief that Stroud wouldn't fall to 4. In that scenario, do they stick with Levis? If so, does Stroud end up being the 4th qb selected?

[Arles]

It seems like the Jets had these choices:
2024 first and conditional 2nd later after the draft
2023 2nd, 1st swap and conditional 1st in 2024 (if AR plays 65%)

I think the second option is more, but you get AR in your program in April as opposed to waiting until training camp and risking other suitors. So, I see why they did it.

At pick 13, my best is Green Bay trades down. The Jets (13) & Pats (14) want an offensive tackle and the Packers moved ahead of them with this swap. Now, if a top tackle is on the board, a team like Pitt (17), Tampa (19) or even the Giants (25) might pay a bunch to get a top OT. Then, GB can get more picks and still get a WR, TE, Safety or Edge they like.

Now, the flip side is they love a WR like Jaxon Smith-NJigba or one of the tackles and get ahead of NE/NYJ.

[Ksyrup]

The NFL Draft in 2023: pic.twitter.com/RUGhhxVnpm

— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) April 25, 2023

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I've read there's a growing a belief that the Texans go with the top defensive player on their board rather than QB and that the Colts are in love with Levis.


If the Texans pass on a qb, the Cardinals aren't able to trade out of the 3rd pick, it gets interesting. I'm assuming the Colts love for Levis is at least partially based on the belief that Stroud wouldn't fall to 4. In that scenario, do they stick with Levis? If so, does Stroud end up being the 4th qb selected?

I kind of feel like the Colts' "love" for Levis could be a smokescreen. The Colts have historically been pretty good about keeping their cards tight so all the Levis rumors make wonder if they actually want Anthony Richardson.

The Levis rumor just gives me the same vibes that the Pacers' "love" for Luke Jackson prior to the 2004 NBA Draft did. The Pacers said afterwards that was a smokescreen and they weren't really interested in him.

[Ryche]

Levis is at -275 to be the second QB drafted.

[Arles]

I agree that Colts for Levis could be a smokescreen. A ton of people had that the past two weeks and I see no reason for the Colts to leak that. With Carolina, I can see why they may leak interest in Young given there's no pick zero. But, if the Colts really liked Levis and leaked it, someone could easily trade with the Cards (who are dying to move down from 3) to get him.

[Carman Bulldog]

Given the size concerns, is Bryce Young really less of a risk than Richardson? Does he have more upside? Or is it really just a more palatable combination of floor and ceiling?

[GrantDawg]

More palatable. He is a much more finished product than AR. His question mark is if he can stand the pounding.

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[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

More palatable. He is a much more finished product than AR. His question mark is if he can stand the pounding.

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There might be some HS QBs that are more finished products than AR.

Hiiiiigh ceiling, but the floor seems career-ending for a front office

[thesloppy]

Are there any 'high ceiling' athlete QBs that played at a poor level in college and actually remarkably improved in the NFL? To my mind it seems like history has proven that great athletic/running collegiate QBs MIGHT translate to good-to-great NFL QBs, but hoping a mediocre college QB is going to magically turn into a great NFL QB is delusional, regardless of how "athletic" they are.

[GrantDawg]

I have wondered the same. I can't think of any. Some might not have had great passing numbers, but they all had success.

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[Ksyrup]

I feel like Josh Allen has made everyone think anyone with supreme athleticism but less than stellar college numbers can be turned into a star.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

Are there any 'high ceiling' athlete QBs that played at a poor level in college and actually remarkably improved in the NFL? To my mind it seems like history has proven that great athletic/running collegiate QBs MIGHT translate to good-to-great NFL QBs, but hoping a mediocre college QB is going to magically turn into a great NFL QB is delusional, regardless of how "athletic" they are.

None that I can think of.

Even if you just said, what's the list of athletic qbs with sub 60% completion percentage in college that had NFL success since 1990, outside of Josh Allen you're looking at:

Vick, Kaepernick, Tyrod Taylor, and Mcnabb?

Of that list, I think Kaepernick might be the best comp and likely the ceiling for someone like Richardson.

[sterlingice]

Did Lamar Jackson hit 60%?


SI

[Solecismic]

Just quickly based on what I have easily in front of me... the average college QB rating (calculated very differently from the NFL's version) for a quarterback in the NFL player pool since 1998 is 140.

Seven quarterbacks have been drafted in the first round who had college QB ratings below 130. Of those seven, four choose or chose to run the ball more than 50% more than the average QB (two close to that threshold, two far more). I don't know if it's fair to call them "athletic" QBs. I've never been sure how to assess that. Even Tom Brady and his slow-as-hell 40-time is a phenomenal athlete compared to a normal human being.

Those four... Kyle Boller (a mild bust at 19th overall in 2003), Jake Locker (complete bust at 8th overall in 2011), Josh Freeman (mild bust at 17th overall in 2009) and Daniel Jones (6th overall in 2019, and looked like a complete bust until this past season).

Searching for below-average QB rating (under 140), and 40 or more career wins in the NFL and 50% more non-kneel-down runs than average... you get two names: David Garrard (4th round, 2002) and Josh Allen (7th overall, 2018).

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Did Lamar Jackson hit 60%?


SI

Lamar would be another. I wiffed on him. He was 57% for his career and topped out at 59.1 his junior year.

[thesloppy]

Interesting. I guess I expected more guys that fit that profile to have been drafted early, but that might just be because there seems to be a tale of some mythical rising athletic QB practically every year, pre-draft.

Regardless, it seems like the consensus is that Josh Allen is practically the one-and-only "high ceiling, athletic tools" QB to ever actually reach the ceiling & throwing first-round capital at that kind of player is self-sabotage.

[tzach]

two of the boom or bust prospects mentioned above were tutored by brian daboll (j allen and d jones). allen was still a mild bust entering yr3, and jones entering yr4. that may say more about daboll than the prospects.



as is well known, excellent qb coaching is such a huge factor in the development cycle. the problem seems to be that teams tend to overestimate how much they can develop a prospect. if anthony richardson or will levis went to kcy, phi, nyg or rams it's one story -- and a completely different one if they go to a less-accomplished franchise.

[albionmoonlight]

Draft Day is here.

My lukewarm take: I predict a low number of trades this year. Other than the QBs and Anderson/Carter, what really is the difference between the players? This draft lacks the obvious top-ten talent that others have. I think that you will have a lot of teams who want to trade down and very few who want to trade up.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Draft Day is here.

My lukewarm take: I predict a low number of trades this year. Other than the QBs and Anderson/Carter, what really is the difference between the players? This draft lacks the obvious top-ten talent that others have. I think that you will have a lot of teams who want to trade down and very few who want to trade up.

Wasn't that, also, largely the perception of last year's draft class and there were 13 trades on the first night!

[Thomkal]

I think if Houston or Arizona (please no) don't take Carter, someone, (Dallas?) who don't seem to care much about off-field problems will trade up to get him. And the ineventible trade up to get a QB who probably at least one of which are going to bust.

[Ryche]

Once you get past the top 12 I think there will be a lot of trades with teams moving to grab the offensive lineman, receiver or cornerback they want.

[Solecismic]

Off-field problems has a wide range, though. They can be PR issues that have nothing to do with on-field performance (violence against women matters more than taking part in an activity that killed someone indirectly). Or they can be an indicator that someone with immense talent may not be able to develop in the NFL.

The former is easier to evaluate. A team picking Carter will not have to deal with fallout in the press or with local advocacy groups. If he's out of legal trouble, that's the end of it.

The latter depends on many factors. When you're dealing with linemen, you're talking about athletes of unusual size. Because of the difficulty of finding athletically gifted individuals of unusual size, you can't replace them easily. On defense, you need burst and that makes dedication and conditioning essential. They anchor your defense. In that sense, any indicator that the player has issues with that dedication is doubly important.

For most positions, that matters far less, because they got to where they got in no small part to demonstrating that dedication. That's because linebacker-sized individuals are everywhere. Smaller guys with immense athletic talent are everywhere. You have an issue, it's already got you and you're not in position to be drafted. Next man up is the rule. OL has the freakish size, but you're in a unit of five and the team concept is drilled in from day one while your strength and skills are honed.

I'm more interested in the mentality of DL, WR, QB, than in other positions. With WR, they have to do so many things so well that success in the NFL is dependent on taking it to another level in a way college won't test. They just do it later and they lay themselves out there in ways no one else can. Individualism is not a bad thing, necessarily, like it is almost everywhere else on the field. You want a certain swagger and confidence in these guys. And QB is such a difficult job that's all about decisions at lightning speed that you don't quite know what you've got until you've tested it for a while. Individualism isn't that bad, but dedication has to be off the charts.

With Carter, I wonder if he's going to stay in shape and give maximum effort when he's out there. Good coaches get a sense of that, maybe even in pre-draft interviews. Remember that you're asking a DL to essentially run through a brick wall on every single play. Carter could be a difference-maker, undoubtedly. But he could also be completely useless if he's not dedicated. Hard to make that assessment.

[Edward64]

Latest SaturdayDownSouth has the Falcons picking RB Bijan Robinson.

CBS Sports says it'll be WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

SI says OT Peter Skoronski

Profootballnetwork says trade #8 to #17 with Steelers and pick RB Bijan Robinson

USA Today says trade #8 to #16 with Commanders and pick Edge Nolan Smith


Kinda weird it's all over the place as far as key need. I love to see a great RB play. Not saying Bijan is it (e.g. the Hogs stuffed him pretty well) but he's the best RB on the board so that's my (wishful) pick.

[weegeebored]

Carter might fall to the Bears at 9. They are not one player away from the playoffs, let alone the SB. Poles seems like a smart GM but I'm not sure yet about his player evaluation skills. I don't think he takes Carter; too much risk. It will be interesting to see if any team wants to move up to 9. I wonder if Houston and/or AZ want to move down too or if those rumors are just smoke.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

With Carter, I wonder if he's going to stay in shape and give maximum effort when he's out there. Good coaches get a sense of that, maybe even in pre-draft interviews. Remember that you're asking a DL to essentially run through a brick wall on every single play. Carter could be a difference-maker, undoubtedly. But he could also be completely useless if he's not dedicated. Hard to make that assessment.

Totally agree. I have read and heard things about Carter having to be pushed to practice and people generally questioning his "football character." I have no idea if any of it is true or not, but if it is, things could definitely go sidewise for him for all the reasons you mentioned. Playing D-Line at the NFL level is no joke.

The Lions have really re-built their roster on high-level football character guys in Sewell, St. Brown and Hutchinson among others. It seems to be working at this point and I can see where, if the Lions feel or know there is truth to all of that that they don't feel Carter is a fit, even with his talent, and worth the 6th overall pick if he's still available.

[DanGarion]

I will just leave this here... I'm sure you will figure out why.
NFL hires 12 new officials. Some familiar names join the league – Football Zebras

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by DanGarion

I will just leave this here... I'm sure you will figure out why.
NFL hires 12 new officials. Some familiar names join the league – Football Zebras

There's only one name I care about and will complain every time an NFL official misses a call

[sterlingice]

Is the good doctor's name on there? I'm just making a guess based on the first few letters of the last name



SI

[cuervo72]

Nice!!!