WW XCV: Land of the Role Reveals GAME OVER

[Danny]

Believe Dubb as seer

[Danny]

I am not in favor of a Lerriuqs vote today either.

[PurdueBrad]

And I might as well say, the only reason I think that is that he actively made a day one play, at least more than most, for a position. It's not a lot but it is something.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Dubb, take Hoops because I think he could very well be the cunning. It is a gut instinct. If you want to give me somebody in return, go ahead.

Take Ty, the top one from my list. This is all assuming I am believed today, otherwise all of this goes out the window.

[Danny]

I really don't understand why Tyrith switched off of Lerriuqs to DT to help him get lynched and now is back to voting Lerriuqs. If you thought he was bad, why did you save him yesterday?

Vote Tyrith

[Danny]

And I know he said placeholder vote, but establishing an early candidate on someone you just saved doesn't sit real well with me.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Take Ty, the top one from my list. This is all assuming I am believed today, otherwise all of this goes out the window.

Got it, I'll take Tyrith.

IF you aren't believed and someone else is I will still let YOU determine who I have on my list. That makes sense to me to help buy me some trust.

I think you should win, unless there are mass shenanigans.

[Danny]

PB, you had Tyrith on top of your trust list, why?

[PurdueBrad]

REFLECTS CHANGES:

My list:

Schmidty
Dubb
Danny
USFLTecmo
Chief Rum
Lerriuqs
Tyrith


Dubb (or other believed seer list)

PurdueBrad
Hoopsguy
ntn
Martin
Lathum
Telle
Racer
saldana

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Danny

PB, you had Tyrith on top of your trust list, why?

He picked up a rule that I had completely missed and I really, really could have screwed up and led us down the wrong path. So he's behind dubb and CR for me just because of that.

[Danny]

Ah, I would have done that as a wolf though. I don't know Tyrith as a wolf well enough to know if he would.

[dubb93]

I'm out to play some WMMA 2 for a while. I'll be back to check throughout the day. I'm still undecided on where my vote is going to go today, I was leaning CR prior to PB's reveal and there is no way I go that way now. I'll see what shakes throughout the day.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

He picked up a rule that I had completely missed and I really, really could have screwed up and led us down the wrong path. So he's behind dubb and CR for me just because of that.

Originally Posted by Danny

Ah, I would have done that as a wolf though. I don't know Tyrith as a wolf well enough to know if he would.

Add me to the list of who would probably do as a wolf. I figured that was PB's reason for trusting Tyrith so I probably should have commented on it.

[PurdueBrad]

No, I agree with you guys. And a wolf would likely know the rules better than a villager, at least on average. So maybe you guys are right.

[Tyrith]

I am somewhat unexpectedly going to be around for the next 45 minutes or so. Placeholder vote rescinded. That's all it was, through and through.

UNVOTE LERRIUQS

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

No, I agree with you guys. And a wolf would likely know the rules better than a villager, at least on average. So maybe you guys are right.

People that are around more know the rules better than average, too. And people that think in such ways are better than average at knowing rules, too. While I agree with your point, it's so minor in comparison to other things I don't think it has substantive value.

[Lathum]

Just checking in between classes. It seems like PB and Dubb have a good plan in place from my limited understanding of the rules.

Believe Dubb as Seer

[Lathum]

Believe Dubb as Seer

[Schmidty]

Ok, I'm just checking in before going to work for a few hours. I won't be able to catch up right now, but I will hopefully by 6 or 7 p.m. EST.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Yes then it should.

lerriuqs 6 – USFLTecmo (246), Telle (304), MartinD (356), saldana (362), Lathum (376), Hoops (394),
DaddyTorgo 6 – lerriuqs (250), Danny (306), Racer (312), EagleFan (383), Tyrith (411), Dubb (420)
MartinD 1 – Schmidty (306)
EagleFan 2 – ntndeacon (366), PurdueBrad (375)
Schmidty 1 - Chief Rum (378)

As for my vote from a pure WW POV I am looking at what we know from the voting. We know DT and EF were villagers.

I would venture a guess there is a wolf somewhere in the DT voting. Obviously EF is good, and we can somewhat trust Dubb. Lerriuqs could be a wolf but his vote was also self defense.

That leaves Racer, Danny and Tyrith. I also wouldn't rule out NTN or Schmidty trying to steer clear of the lynch candidate.

[Tyrith]

Sigh, this is the last time I'm merciful in WW :P

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Lathum

As for my vote from a pure WW POV I am looking at what we know from the voting. We know DT and EF were villagers.

I would venture a guess there is a wolf somewhere in the DT voting. Obviously EF is good, and we can somewhat trust Dubb. Lerriuqs could be a wolf but his vote was also self defense.

That leaves Racer, Danny and Tyrith. I also wouldn't rule out NTN or Schmidty trying to steer clear of the lynch candidate.

I think this is a good line of thought and a good place to look for candidates today.

[Danny]

With that said, assuming Lerriuqs is a villager too, there likely a wolf on him too. That list is bigger though, so tougher to narrow down the candidates. I think your list or an early vote on Lerriuqs is the way to go today.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Lathum

As for my vote from a pure WW POV I am looking at what we know from the voting. We know DT and EF were villagers.

I would venture a guess there is a wolf somewhere in the DT voting. Obviously EF is good, and we can somewhat trust Dubb. Lerriuqs could be a wolf but his vote was also self defense.

That leaves Racer, Danny and Tyrith. I also wouldn't rule out NTN or Schmidty trying to steer clear of the lynch candidate.

Lerriuqs vote became self-defense, but I think it's fair to say it was hardly that when he voted for him. Unless someone unvoted for Lerriuqs, he had one vote on him when he voted for Daddy Torgo.

[Racer]

Also in regards to me, I don't understand why people yesterday were pushing for Lerriuqs because he claimed to be the cultist when I in fact was probably pushing harder then him that we believe somebody for that role yesterday.

[Danny]

I didn't understand that either.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Racer

Also in regards to me, I don't understand why people yesterday were pushing for Lerriuqs because he claimed to be the cultist when I in fact was probably pushing harder then him that we believe somebody for that role yesterday.

Difference is that it seemed (and still does) quite likely he is actually the cultist, which means he can already screw us. You were pushing for us to give someone else that chance, which seems like a mistake but not actively a sign that you're bad. My vibe is that you just didn't see the gain/risk the same as I do, not that you are a wolf trying to get another cultist.

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Difference is that it seemed (and still does) quite likely he is actually the cultist, which means he can already screw us. You were pushing for us to give someone else that chance, which seems like a mistake but not actively a sign that you're bad. My vibe is that you just didn't see the gain/risk the same as I do, not that you are a wolf trying to get another cultist.

Why does it seem quite likely that I am the cultist any more than Racer? Racer said "I am the Cultist" as well.

Also why would a wolf try to be believed a cultist? At most you live one or two days after becoming the cultist if you screw with the group. Then you lose a wolf. And the real cultist (unless they were going villager) wouldn't make that play this early and pretty much can't now that it's been discussed and the suspicion shown. I made the play for the same reasons Racer did (assuming he's a villager the same as me) - you get a guaranteed wolf from the play and don't have to turn wolf to do it.

[Telle]

The PB/dubb plan sounds good to me.

Believe dubb as seer.

[Tyrith]

No, in Racer's case it was more just pushing for a cultist in general. Granted, though, I haven't gone back to look too closely. But a turning a villager into a cultist is a net win for the bad guys.

You came out and said that you are the cultist super early, not really qualifying it. This screams screwball play a lot more than trying to get info for the village.

[Danny]

Tyrith, if you truly feel that way, why did you help DT to get lynched instead of Lerriuqs?

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Danny

Tyrith, if you truly feel that way, why did you help DT to get lynched instead of Lerriuqs?

Because lerr's play seemed screwball villager play to me. I think he's the cultist, but I don't feel it's likely he's out to actually harm us. I pretty agreed with what DT was thinking - lerr made a mistake as a villager, DT was a vanilla, we might as well kill the guy that has played more.

That said, in regard to the placeholder vote earlier, lerr did wind up on the bad side of a lynch, so it's more likely he's bad than anyone else at this point for that reason. Mostly that's indicative of the fact that I don't have a clue where to go today. Also, I have no idea when I'll be back (I wasn't expecting to be here now), so I'm somewhat forced to put a vote in and see what happens.

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

No, in Racer's case it was more just pushing for a cultist in general. Granted, though, I haven't gone back to look too closely. But a turning a villager into a cultist is a net win for the bad guys.

You came out and said that you are the cultist super early, not really qualifying it. This screams screwball play a lot more than trying to get info for the village.

Post 124 (Racer) isn't that much later...than post 71...

And look again - believing a villager to be a cultist is not necessarily a net win for the bad guys. It can get info for the village with no downside with the right person. I believe I am the right person, but if no one chooses to follow that, I'm not going down that road again unless someone else brings it up.

[Danny]

If he is the cultist, then he is out to harm us and he's on the wolves side.

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Because lerr's play seemed screwball villager play to me. I think he's the cultist, but I don't feel it's likely he's out to actually harm us. I pretty agreed with what DT was thinking - lerr made a mistake as a villager, DT was a vanilla, we might as well kill the guy that has played more.

That said, in regard to the placeholder vote earlier, lerr did wind up on the bad side of a lynch, so it's more likely he's bad than anyone else at this point for that reason. Mostly that's indicative of the fact that I don't have a clue where to go today. Also, I have no idea when I'll be back (I wasn't expecting to be here now), so I'm somewhat forced to put a vote in and see what happens.

I didn't make a mistake and you can be damned sure that I wouldn't have outed myself as the cultist if I was the real one.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

Post 124 (Racer) isn't that much later...than post 71...

And look again - believing a villager to be a cultist is not necessarily a net win for the bad guys. It can get info for the village with no downside with the right person. I believe I am the right person, but if no one chooses to follow that, I'm not going down that road again unless someone else brings it up.

True. But I don't trust most of the people in this game to not stab us in the back if given the chance. You can do more awesome stuff as a bad guy.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

I didn't make a mistake and you can be damned sure that I wouldn't have outed myself as the cultist if I was the real one.

*shrug* I don't have enough of a record on you to know that. Further, the second part of that sentence is not necessarily true -- it just depends on what you think you could get away with, and that's a judgment call. And we all foul up judgment calls sometimes. No one is above making a sucky play.

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

*shrug* I don't have enough of a record on you to know that. Further, the second part of that sentence is not necessarily true -- it just depends on what you think you could get away with, and that's a judgment call. And we all foul up judgment calls sometimes. No one is above making a sucky play.

No, and I've made plenty, but you're jumping to conclusions that don't mesh.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

No, and I've made plenty, but you're jumping to conclusions that don't mesh.

I'm not really concluding squat about you, to be quite frank. When I made the vote I said it was a placeholder and I had no conviction behind it. To be quite frank, why do you care anymore? It's not going back.

[Tyrith]

Further, if you are a villager, I switched off you onto a vanilla. This is, at worst, net neutral.

[Tyrith]

I have to go, I will probably be back in four hours or so, but I can't say anything for sure. And all I have is that he voted for me, and is in the same pool of likely candidates I'm in. Again, no conviction behind this vote - someone come up with a case and I'm game, but I doubt that's coming.

VOTE DANNY

[hoopsguy]

UNBELIEVE PB
BELIEVE DUBB

[saldana]

since it fits into my own plan from yesterday, we need a 2nd seer, and since CR isnt gonna get enough, i think we need to do it today

believe dubb as seer

[dubb93]

This entire thread is UTR.

[Lathum]

just got out of class, anyone have a vote count?

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Lathum

As for my vote from a pure WW POV I am looking at what we know from the voting. We know DT and EF were villagers.

I would venture a guess there is a wolf somewhere in the DT voting. Obviously EF is good, and we can somewhat trust Dubb. Lerriuqs could be a wolf but his vote was also self defense.

That leaves Racer, Danny and Tyrith. I also wouldn't rule out NTN or Schmidty trying to steer clear of the lynch candidate.

Take this with the grain of salt you will take it with. but I voted the way I did cuz I thought I was evening out the vote on a candidate to be lynched.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

Take this with the grain of salt you will take it with. but I voted the way I did cuz I thought I was evening out the vote on a candidate to be lynched.

Meaning you voted EF in the hopes of keeping a tie with DT and Lerriuqs?

[dubb93]

I'm working on a vote count right now.

[Danny]

Wow, so little action.

[Chief Rum]

Can someone explain to me how dubb is proven and trusted, given that the Duke could be anyone who was not on lerriuqs (faulty reasoning to assume Duke is on DT, per the tiebreaker rules, that does not have to be the case), and the real Duke (if it's not dubb) would not be able to take care of dubb traditionally (no lynch power)?

Look, I know he's probably exactly who he says he is, but it still feels to me like we're rushing to trust him, and now hand him a powerful seer role, when, to my knowledge, he still hasn't proven a thing.

I certainly hope that the real Duke (if it's not dubb) is paying attention and will reveal himself to settle this. The unfortunate thing is that if dubb is the real Duke, there will be no Duke to positively confirm it (of course). We can only negatively reject it with a real Duke reveal, or wonder if the real Duke is staying silent for some reason.