WW Small Game IX- The Cold War !! game over CIA win

[molson]

I'll be upfront about my dilemna - I happen to know that a specific someone was out of their bed last night.

Of course, I don't want to out a useful American (if there's some reason for one to be running around at night)

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by molson

I'll be upfront about my dilemna - I happen to know that a specific someone was out of their bed last night.

Of course, I don't want to out a useful American (if there's some reason for one to be running around at night)

Don't tell me who you saw just yet, but I want to know how you were able to see them. What allowed you to?

As for me, I had an experience pretty much like what Ardent experienced. So yeah, I know someone was out and know who they were and for now have an ok feeling about them.

[Alan T]

dola,

obviously everyone has roles except me that lets you leave at night!

[ImTheCrew]

no my role is just as boring alan

[molson]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Don't tell me who you saw just yet, but I want to know how you were able to see them. What allowed you to?

As for me, I had an experience pretty much like what Ardent experienced. So yeah, I know someone was out and know who they were and for now have an ok feeling about them.

I had a (unposted) theory about someone, so I took a peak with a skeleton key I found - and they were out and about.

[MollyMurphy]

I understand at this point why these night sitings are not being revealed, but I am wondering if any of the can make something of what CR said...maybe the way you saw it or who you saw.

[molson]

Here’s the deal, basically.

-If I don’t reveal, and it was a spy, I’ll be night killed and take that info to my grave.
-If I don’t reveal, and it was an American, fine, though the waters might be further muddied
-If I reveal, and it was a spy, they’re pretty much screwed, weather or not I’m believed at first
-If I reveal, and it was an American – potentially not good, but I’m not totally clear as to why.

Balancing those 4 factors, the logical thing seems to be to reveal

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by molson

Here’s the deal, basically.

-If I don’t reveal, and it was a spy, I’ll be night killed and take that info to my grave.
-If I don’t reveal, and it was an American, fine, though the waters might be further muddied
-If I reveal, and it was a spy, they’re pretty much screwed, weather or not I’m believed at first
-If I reveal, and it was an American – potentially not good, but I’m not totally clear as to why.

Balancing those 4 factors, the logical thing seems to be to reveal

Well, can I ask if it was Chief Rum? or someone else?

[molson]

Originally Posted by MollyMurphy

I understand at this point why these night sitings are not being revealed, but I am wondering if any of the can make something of what CR said...maybe the way you saw it or who you saw.

Not really. It's common knowledge that a key or goggles could allow someone to see or be seen. CR's either telling the truth or lying (or, he just misread what Saldana said).

[molson]

I wish my trust of Alan was 100% instead of 95%. I mean, he killed path, but if that automatically makes him bulletproof, then it's a perfect wolf move. (Not that I think that's the case here)

[MollyMurphy]

Given the uncertainty around CR so far, and he is not around to defend himself, I am a little uneasy voting for him at this point. As I said earlier, cronin is a little fishy. He has consistently been popping on and off of the radar of many. I am out for dinner tonight w/ a friend but am planning to return before the deadline. I am open minded to move later if more is revealed, but for now: Vote St.Cronin

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by molson

I wish my trust of Alan was 100% instead of 95%. I mean, he killed path, but if that automatically makes him bulletproof, then it's a perfect wolf move. (Not that I think that's the case here)

In werewolf, no one ever should be 100% other than yourself. So I'm ok with that. I'm interested in helping you make a good decision here without outing the person who visited me and I believe Ardent as well.

I obviously am not saying everything i know (as I am keeping this person's identity hidden). I think you in the end have to make your own call on whether or not you feel you should reveal. You know you were out last night, Chief says Saldana was out, we assume Chief was out to know that, there is a missing person who robbed Saldana (who could possibly be Chief), and perhaps a wolf and perhaps the negotiator (if it wasnt Chief or Saldana as well). So my guess is if it was Chief, I would come out to say it. If it wasn't chief, then Im guessing including you there were probably only 2-3 people out last night. One of which I feel good about today. So I think if its not chief, it truly is going to be either 50/50 or 1/3 chance the person is good that you saw.

[ImTheCrew]

alan was right about path so im going to have to vote his way agian

VOTE CR

could change if some more information is given

[beargrowlz]

Been in an out all day. Not getting a vibe on anyone atm. Two things trouble me though: still not sure why Narc was night killed, and I'm really not sure why no one was night killed last night.

If I had to vote right now, I'd go with Alan and the hot hand and vote Chief Rum.

But frankly, I've got nothing.

[Barkeep49]

I'm still stuck on why Narcazio was taken out. He had three suspects:
cronin, Ardent, and bear.

I'm not sure I feel better or worse about one of those three, but that is the direction I'm going with my vote today.

[beargrowlz]

Don't know if I'll be back before deadline.

Vote Chief Rum

[molson]

Note sure I love the CR votes. It's unfortunate that Chief Rum/Saldana had the weird "Someone was in here/where were you" deal and left without further comment before the vote.

I guess I'm holding off on what I know at this point - which is info that may benefit the spies, the Americans, or may be completely irrelevant. Makes me a potential recipient of hard commie justice.

I know there's at least one body armor floating around somewhere (possibly more) - if it's in the hands of an American, consider throwing it my way. It'd be tremendous for the spies to lose another night kill, or have them move on someone that isn't necessarily their top choice.

Still stumped on a vote for tonight.

[molson]

Chief Rum 3 (Beargrowlz, IntheCrew, Alan T)
ITC 2 (Ardent Enthusiast, St. Cronin)
St. Cronin 1 (MollyMurphy)
Molson 1 (Chief Rum_
MollyMurphy 1 (Saldana)

Not Voted: Molson, Barkeep

[molson]

Really curious to see what Barkeep will do here.

I don't want CR to run away with this, and as suspicious I am of ITC, I don't want to tie it up with things so slow around here and chance that a tie sticks.

I think I basically want to stay out of this one, so I'll vote for someone out of the running, who's also in my top 3 or 4 suspects.

VOTE SALDANA

[Lathum]

deadline in 5 minutes. Just got home. Can someone confirm the vote count?

[Lathum]

Chief Rum 3 (Beargrowlz, IntheCrew, Alan T)
ITC 2 (Ardent Enthusiast, St. Cronin)
St. Cronin 1 (MollyMurphy)
Molson 1 (Chief Rum_
MollyMurphy 1 (Saldana)
Saldana (1) molson

You all gather in the mess hall. In a close vote your dwindling numbers decided Chief Rum is the traitor. He puts up little resistance. You seem confident in your descion, if he was a CIA agent surely he would put up a fight.

The commanding office walks up behind him and like several other nights ends his life with a bullet in the head. A search of Chief Rums quarters show several swiss bank account statements. He was the mercenary!!

Deadline 9:00 AM EST

[Poli]

Wow, quiet day while I've been gone. Got stuck with "duty" at work...and I'm here for another 2 hours.

[Alan T]

I guess Chief did know a bit more about who the mercenary was then he responded when I asked him.

[molson]

So if the mercenary is dead, is the negotiator now pointless?

[Poli]

Hmm. Maybe. Thoughts, Alan?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

Hmm. Maybe. Thoughts, Alan?

I don't know.I still never figured out the exact situation between the mercenary, the negotiator and us vs bad. I think if we assume the negotiator is good, then there is some benefit to them developing a circle of trust so to speak. Its one of those things you never can fully trust until at some point when you find out for sure if the negotiator is on your side or not.

I guess it depends on a few things to me:

1) is the negotiator good?
2) what type of info does the negotiator get back when they visit a good person vs bad person.
3) How can we put all of that together without compromising the negotiator until we know for sure whats going on?

For now I think I know who the negotiator is, I am leaning more torwards him being good than bad. And i find one thing about today's vote very ironic that I can't say without blowing stuff that we'll see later on in the game I bet.

[Alan T]

Well either way, rather kill the mercenary than a good guy either way. So I don't think today was entirely lost.

[Poli]

My question was more of, should we reveal who came knocking on the door?

[molson]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

My question was more of, should we reveal who came knocking on the door?

And should I reveal who wasn't home last night.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

My question was more of, should we reveal who came knocking on the door?

I don't think so yet. I think I would rather find out who had him as a visitor on night 1 (We still don't know that) and would like to see who he visits tonight. That way we have 4 people listed. At some point we can try to find out what type of information he gets and reveal it if need be. But I am skeptical if he finds info on bad guys or not.. I think he simply finds if the person is the mercenary or not.. which would mean yeah, probably not going to add much at this point. But would rather wait till morning to decide that. I'm wondering if the bad guys know who we are talking about and I wonder if he will end up with some body armor to save him.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by molson

And should I reveal who wasn't home last night.

I would say the same thing to you that I just said to Ardent. I'm curious to see how tonight plays out.

[Poli]

I've tried not to be obvious about it, but the more individuals I have to respond to about it...the fewer options there are as to who it really is. JUST a little frustrating.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I don't think so yet. I think I would rather find out who had him as a visitor on night 1 (We still don't know that) and would like to see who he visits tonight. That way we have 4 people listed. At some point we can try to find out what type of information he gets and reveal it if need be. But I am skeptical if he finds info on bad guys or not.. I think he simply finds if the person is the mercenary or not.. which would mean yeah, probably not going to add much at this point. But would rather wait till morning to decide that. I'm wondering if the bad guys know who we are talking about and I wonder if he will end up with some body armor to save him.

How do you expect to find out who he visited on night 1? That person is clearly either dead or not talking.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

I've tried not to be obvious about it, but the more individuals I have to respond to about it...the fewer options there are as to who it really is. JUST a little frustrating.

Yeah, but if we reveal it now, we don't learn anything from it and it doesn't really gain us much.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by molson

How do you expect to find out who he visited on night 1? That person is clearly either dead or not talking.

Not sure if we will. But like I said, if we dont find that out, then what else do we learn by revealing the name at this point? We know who night 2 and 3 were, and we just put him at risk for night actions. There is a chance the bad guys know who he is already, thus there is a chance that person might end up with body armor too. Who knows!

[molson]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Not sure if we will. But like I said, if we dont find that out, then what else do we learn by revealing the name at this point? We know who night 2 and 3 were, and we just put him at risk for night actions. There is a chance the bad guys know who he is already, thus there is a chance that person might end up with body armor too. Who knows!

I understand you not revealing him. But the person I'm considering revealing only has about a 1/3 or so chance as being the same guy you and ardent are talking about. And of that 1/3 chance, it's extremely questionable whether the chance reveal of that person really helps us. And a 2/3 chance to be greatly helped. (At least in my mind, and in the minds of those who trust me).

[molson]

Or to put it another way, IF I trusted you and AE 100% (and you trusted me), there's a 2/3 chance that my reveal, combined with yours, would essentially expose the second spy right now. The remaining spy wouldn't be able to do much about it.

Of course, as I said, my trust level hovers somewhat below 100% for everyone, so that has to be factored in as well.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by molson

Or to put it another way, IF I trusted you and AE 100% (and you trusted me), there's a 2/3 chance that my reveal, combined with yours, would essentially expose the second spy right now. The remaining spy wouldn't be able to do much about it.

Of course, as I said, my trust level hovers somewhat below 100% for everyone, so that has to be factored in as well.

Yes, and tell me how revealing that tonight helps us vs possibly revealing tommorrow?

[molson]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Yes, and tell me how revealing that tonight helps us vs possibly revealing tommorrow?

I could be dead by then

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by molson

I could be dead by then

I am guessing I won't be suprised by who you saw out at night. Just a hunch. But its up to you on what you want to do with your role.

[Alan T]

Molly, I've seen you around a good bit tonight. thoughts on today's events?

[MollyMurphy]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Molly, I've seen you around a good bit tonight. thoughts on today's events?

Sorry, I have been glancing in while cleaning for our visitors. Forming some opinions now. Here are some starting thoughts.

My take on the mercenary role is that since we already got one KGB agent, and they are down a man, it is a good thing we got him. From what I can tell in the roles, that is the only person who could be swayed to work with them. Score for us with them remaining one man down.

On revealing who people saw out on different nights...risky. There are so many roles that can go out: KGB traitors, Negotiator, people using their tools like the skeleton key. While items are single use, their could be more than one of an item leading to multiple people out and about, so again, it may be tough to make a correlation...only chance would be if the same person was seen on different nights...that would likely point to negotiator or traitor.

[st.cronin]

What, exactly, does ITC have to do to get lynched? He's been playing like a wolf the whole game.

*shakes head in amazement*

Well, good luck fellows. We'll see what morning brings.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

What, exactly, does ITC have to do to get lynched? He's been playing like a wolf the whole game.

*shakes head in amazement*

Well, good luck fellows. We'll see what morning brings.

So I take it that you are unhappy that we lynched the merc?

[MollyMurphy]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I'm still stuck on why Narcazio was taken out. He had three suspects:
cronin, Ardent, and bear.

I'm not sure I feel better or worse about one of those three, but that is the direction I'm going with my vote today.

I have been feeling similar. I did feel a bit better about Ardent b/c of his early reveal of someone being at his door, but now it seems there is so much activity out and about that I am a little more leary.

[Poli]

Well, the person I met at my door was all about talking about loyalty. I questioned if that was it, and the answer I got was, that's it. About loyalty. My take? That was the negotiator trying to keep me "loyal" to the CIA.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

Well, the person I met at my door was all about talking about loyalty. I questioned if that was it, and the answer I got was, that's it. About loyalty. My take? That was the negotiator trying to keep me "loyal" to the CIA.

I guess its similar to my experience. For me we talked about past fourth of julys.

[Chief Rum]

Shoot! One more minute! I had posted that earlier today and went away for 20 mins hoping to get a response before I left. Since no one did, I left. And Alan responded perhaps a minute after my last post. Ugh.

Oh well. Good luck, everyone. And I do mean everyone. After all, I was completely neutral, just waiting for someone to find me.

[MollyMurphy]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

Well, the person I met at my door was all about talking about loyalty. I questioned if that was it, and the answer I got was, that's it. About loyalty. My take? That was the negotiator trying to keep me "loyal" to the CIA.

Sounds like it may have been the negotiator. Sounds like a question to determine if you were the mercenary.

[Lathum]

results coming