WW: Scooby Doo and the Horrible Halloween Party of Doom! Game over - Monsters win!! - Page 13

hoopsguy · 10-26-2009, 03:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan

I wonder why the person who made the vote which changed day one (from Abe being lynched to Telle) would not want us to find out where Abe's allegiance is... Just a little more food for thought.

Assuming you mean me, as the last vote to get in under the deadline, believe me that I'm very curious as to Abe's allegiance. I've spent more time thinking about this over the past 65 or so hours than is really healthy, given other time commitments. But I'm also trying to make the most reasoned vote that I can today with the info that I have.

Right now, that has me looking away from Abe for today's vote. And it will almost certainly have me looking away from him again tomorrow if there has not been a seer coming out and naming him for a second straight day.

JAG · 10-26-2009, 03:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Just to play devil's advocate...

The person who initiated the Telle run was the person who was under the gun of being voted out. I don't think that we can judge that run by who started it. Neither PB or Danny would have known Telle's allegiance so that really doesn't speak for Abe's presumed guilt or innocence.

Right, my lack of clarification hurt here, but my point not being that they know Abe's innocence or not (they wouldn't unless they were wolves), but the fact that we know it was villagers who started the run and not unknown / wolves makes it seem like the wolves were indifferent to Abe getting lynched. That makes me lean towards Abe being ok.

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan

If we go the Abe route: If Abe is good than we focus on those who didn't move their vote (there would be no need to move if it is vllager/villager/villager). If Abe is bad we need to look at the secondary group who joined in with PB and Danny.

I was wondering about that too. Here's the list of those who didn't move their vote day 1 (obviously leaving you off the list):

JAG
MartinD
KWhit
The Jackal
GE
lerriuqs

I'm not sure that tells us a lot because I would guess that none of these players were in the thread post PB reveal. I know I was, MartinD was sleeping, GE wasn't there. I don't know for sure about the other three.

EagleFan · 10-26-2009, 03:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG

Right, my lack of clarification hurt here, but my point not being that they know Abe's innocence or not (they wouldn't unless they were wolves), but the fact that we know it was villagers who started the run and not unknown / wolves makes it seem like the wolves were indifferent to Abe getting lynched. That makes me lean towards Abe being ok.

When that run started PB was the leading vote getter, at that time there was no need for them to risk another run on someone. Once PB and Danny started the run on Telle it would have given them just the excuse they needed to try to save Abe (if he is a wolf).

GoldenEagle · 10-26-2009, 03:29 PM

I am not going to lie, I really don't have a vibe on anyone at this point. Raiders Army and ntn sound like the best candidates right now, and my vote will likely be going on one of these two.

JAG · 10-26-2009, 03:32 PM

My list is incorrect btw, lerriuqs had voted for RA but switched to Abe.

The Jackal · 10-26-2009, 03:33 PM

To respond to JAG's post, I was not in the thread post PB's reveal. But I'm not sure I would have moved my vote from Abe.

And to respond to something hoops said on the last page, the main reason I haven't voted Abe yet is because I don't want it to be a runaway. Trying to see what people are doing, and it's not much thus far.

hoopsguy · 10-26-2009, 03:37 PM

Question for NTN if/when he gets back - you were pretty willing to make this a "you vs Abe" contest this morning, based on putting a self-defense vote on Abe when the tally was 1-0 early this morning. Now that you have a few hours and some more posts to evaluate, do you still think Abe is the right way to go today? Why or why not?

hoopsguy · 10-26-2009, 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Trying to see what people are doing, and it's not much thus far.

Yep, it has felt like a very careful game of WW so far today. To be honest, that is not helping my trust of Abe out, other factors notwithstanding.

JAG · 10-26-2009, 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan

When that run started PB was the leading vote getter, at that time there was no need for them to risk another run on someone. Once PB and Danny started the run on Telle it would have given them just the excuse they needed to try to save Abe (if he is a wolf).

Sure, that's certainly a plausible theory. I have to try to make assumptions to figure out who to vote for today and I leaned towards my interpretation over that, but you could certainly be right.

hoopsguy · 10-26-2009, 03:39 PM

EF, do you have a count for how many votes were uncast at the time the Telle run started? Were everyone's votes in and accounted for?

The Jackal · 10-26-2009, 03:40 PM

EF, did you not make that vote bold on purpose, or what?

JAG · 10-26-2009, 03:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

EF, do you have a count for how many votes were uncast at the time the Telle run started? Were everyone's votes in and accounted for?

(286) Raiders Army unvotes ntndeacon, votes PurdueBrad (PB 8, AS 6, Danny 3, RA 1)
(288) PurdueBrad reveals as Shaggy

All 18 votes were in.

KWhit · 10-26-2009, 03:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG

Right, my lack of clarification hurt here, but my point not being that they know Abe's innocence or not (they wouldn't unless they were wolves), but the fact that we know it was villagers who started the run and not unknown / wolves makes it seem like the wolves were indifferent to Abe getting lynched. That makes me lean towards Abe being ok.

Agreed. I am not feeling a whole lot of suspicion for Abe right now for those very reasons.

KWhit · 10-26-2009, 03:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG

I was wondering about that too. Here's the list of those who didn't move their vote day 1 (obviously leaving you off the list):

JAG
MartinD
KWhit
The Jackal
GE
lerriuqs

I'm not sure that tells us a lot because I would guess that none of these players were in the thread post PB reveal. I know I was, MartinD was sleeping, GE wasn't there. I don't know for sure about the other three.

For the record, I was not around for his reveal.

JAG · 10-26-2009, 03:46 PM

Or if you mean right when it started:

(324) J23 unvotes PurdueBrad (AS 8, PB 4, Danny 3, RA 1) (16/18 votes in)
(344) PurdueBrad unvotes Danny (AS 8, PB 4, Danny 2, RA 1)
(346) PurdueBrad votes Telle (AS 8, PB 4, Danny 2, RA 1, Telle 1) (16/18 votes in at this point)

EagleFan · 10-26-2009, 03:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

EF, do you have a count for how many votes were uncast at the time the Telle run started? Were everyone's votes in and accounted for?

I'll check hat later, need to get back to work at the moment. I did a quick scan and see that RA and ntn were actually the first to unvote PB after the reveal but they had revoted prior to the Telle run (RA on Abe and ntn on KWhit).

KWhit · 10-26-2009, 03:50 PM

I also am just not buying the ntn is a wolf idea currently.

Ntn was on Purduebrad at the time of his reveal. If he was a wolf, he could have simply put his vote on Danny or Abe to blend in, but he brought me in as a somewhat off the wall candidate. I don't think a wolf makes that move.

EagleFan · 10-26-2009, 03:51 PM

I mistook two different events. The Telle run an the reveal. Abe was actually leading when the Telle run started but not when the PB reveal happened. Not sure how much time was involved in between those events at the moment though.

PurdueBrad · 10-26-2009, 03:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG

(286) Raiders Army unvotes ntndeacon, votes PurdueBrad (PB 8, AS 6, Danny 3, RA 1)
(288) PurdueBrad reveals as Shaggy

All 18 votes were in.

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG

Or if you mean right when it started:

(324) J23 unvotes PurdueBrad (AS 8, PB 4, Danny 3, RA 1) (16/18 votes in)
(344) PurdueBrad unvotes Danny (AS 8, PB 4, Danny 2, RA 1)
(346) PurdueBrad votes Telle (AS 8, PB 4, Danny 2, RA 1, Telle 1) (16/18 votes in at this point)

I think we have to assume we had at least one wolf (and I would venture to say a couple) on when I revealed and during the aftermath because they made the choice to block me (even though I looked like a solid lynch when all the votes were in) AND they made the choice to kill Danny, who basically had votes move away from him and never generated a serious push. I would say that both of those were quite reactionary. My guess is that the reveal caused more chaos for wolves than for anybody else, despite the fact that Danny and I did end up making it easy by setting up Telle as a candidate.

That being said, I firmly believe that all wolves moved their votes and the ones that did not move their votes were on candidates other than Danny and I.

Coffee Warlord · 10-26-2009, 03:54 PM

Something else that may or may not be relevant, but additional food for thought.

I voted Abe to force a tie at 6 / 6. Both subsequent votes went to PB, from KWhit and RA, followed by PB's reveal.

hoopsguy · 10-26-2009, 03:55 PM

PB, can you explore the "all wolves moved their votes" logic as we seem to have some differing opinions between your comments, Lathum's earlier logic, and something Chief said late last night.

It seems like we have a few experienced players who are viewing the late movement differently and I want to understand the positions that are being staked.

Note - this is not a question I would care about 10 minutes before deadline but we've got a little time on our hands here.

Chief Rum · 10-26-2009, 04:15 PM

Okay, I wish I could devote more time to think about this, but I'm still hip deep in work here. I have caught up to this point in the reading.

Right now, we don't have a real race. I was on Abe Friday and stuck with him, and I still think he could be a wolf. But my reasoning for the vote there was what I thought to be an oddlike stretch of "un-Abe-like" votes that day (something he has vehemently denied is out of the ordinary, but I'm not the only one who felt that way).

Point is, I have far from conclusive opinions as to ABe's actual allegiance, and the discussion on ntn/RA (with the oddly timed votes), which I commented some on last night, is, IMO, a bit more suspicious than my initial impression of Abe's play.

I'm not sure I entirely agree with hoop's reasoning that we shouldn't involve Abe in a close vote, since I think we can still learn something from it. But I do agree that ntn (or RA) should at least get a look, and I am fine with that showdown being between ntn and Abe.

Since at this point, I believe Abe holds a healthy lead, I am going to tighten things up with, IMO, the more suspicious of the two.

VOTE NTNDEACON

KWhit · 10-26-2009, 04:22 PM

Anybody have a vote count?

KWhit · 10-26-2009, 04:25 PM

I'm going to have to get a vote in pretty soon, and unfortunately I don't really like any of the candidates we've talked about so far. I'm thinking the wolves are likely playing it closer to the vest than NTN or RA have been. And since the run away from Abe was started by villagers, I'm guessing Abe is a good guy too.

I don't have a real good other candidate to offer up at this point, though. But I'm still looking for one.

Schmidty · 10-26-2009, 04:26 PM

I have a really busy day today, so I might be a little late at deadline. Worst case would be 9:30 pm. I'll try my best to be on time though. Tomorrow's crazy too. I work all day, and then go directly to my tutoring job. Just a heads-up.

Schmidty · 10-26-2009, 04:27 PM

Coffee Warlord · 10-26-2009, 04:27 PM

Got about an hour and a half to make up my mind. Wanna have a vote in before I head home from work.

Abe Sargent · 10-26-2009, 04:32 PM

Mondays are usually my busy day of the week and today is no exception. I should be back laters, but just in case the random stuff happens, let me go ahead and cast my SD vote now.

vote ntndeacon

hoopsguy · 10-26-2009, 04:33 PM

Abe, if the vote was not self-defense then how do you interpret Day 1 and the movement (or lack thereof) around you today?

You, and the wolves (assuming these are mutually exclusive groups) have more info than the rest of us on the subject so I would have liked to see more posting from you today than we've gotten so far.

hoopsguy · 10-26-2009, 04:39 PM

I'm almost positive that I will not be voting for NTN today. He feels like a fairly convenient choice for the wolves, who can "piggy back" on the logic of the cleared Scooby as justification for their choice. Plus I'm not all that enthused about the group of voters who are currently on him.

Coffee Warlord · 10-26-2009, 04:39 PM

Think I'm gonna follow the early lead on this one. It was ntn/RA to begin the day for me, and RA got worked out. Which leaves ntn.

Barring something interesting coming up...

VOTE NTNDEACON

The Jackal · 10-26-2009, 04:42 PM

Well that's an interesting three vote run there.

KWhit · 10-26-2009, 04:47 PM

I'm going to go a different direction. I think that we were likely looking at 3 villagers on the block yesterday between Abe, PB and then Telle. I also know that I am a villager (you guys don't, I know, but it gives me one more data point to look at).

So when I look at Coffee Warlord's vote history, I see that he started on me. Then he votes for Abe. And then finishes up on Telle. I personally know that I am a villager. I have a slight gut feel that Abe is one too. And we know that Telle is.

This is kind of a shot in the dark vote based on my gut. I was looking for someone who didn't seem to over-switch their vote, but who had votes on multiple villagers (or people I suspect are villagers).

Vote Coffee Warlord

Coffee Warlord · 10-26-2009, 04:58 PM

For what it's worth (and I frankly was a little curious that no one HAD questioned my votes yesterday)...

Vote 1 - You. I refreshed the page and saw that green thing you call a costume. Voted. Simple as that. I should vote you about three more times for that god awful thing.

Vote 2 - Abe. At the time, it was 5/6 Abe/PB, with about 90 minutes left. With no information to go on, I decided my best move was to force a tie. Whether or not it accomplished anything is a matter of debate, but there was my logic there.

Vote 3 - Telle. Didn't have a lot of time to think that one over (and technically, I missed the vote entirely), but I chose I to hop over. I felt, and still do, that Abe was kosher. Only reason I had a vote on him in the first place was to force the tie between him and PB.

The Jackal · 10-26-2009, 05:01 PM

Why did you want to force a tie? Ties result in a no lynch. You just didn't want to be a deciding vote?

Lathum · 10-26-2009, 05:03 PM

My vote stays with Abe, to me that is the most logical. Yes the seer may have scanned him, but I don't want to have to wait for the seer to be outed to learn what we can from that vote.

The Jackal · 10-26-2009, 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

My vote stays with Abe, to me that is the most logical. Yes the seer may have scanned him, but I don't want to have to wait for the seer to be outed to learn what we can from that vote.

And look what happened last game, the seer died before they could reveal their scans and as a result we didn't know if CR was good or bad, and though most surmised he was good, it made the endgame a lot harder for the village and may have had a large hand in winning it for the wolves.

Coffee Warlord · 10-26-2009, 05:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Why did you want to force a tie? Ties result in a no lynch. You just didn't want to be a deciding vote?

There was over an hour left in voting, some unvoted/people on early throwaway votes. Plenty of time to shake the branches and see what would happen. Best use of my vote at the time, in my opinion.

hoopsguy · 10-26-2009, 05:18 PM

I've still got some time left before leaving the office, but once I leave I do not expect to be back before the deadline.

I do not like NTN as the second candidate today, in part because I do not trust the people who are voting for him very far. I'm tempted to put a vote on one of them, but instead I'll just go ahead and vote for Abe and go after these folks if/when Abe shows up as a wolf. If it doesn't play out that way, then I'll have to take a long hard look at my assumptions from the first two days.

VOTE ABE SARGENT

hoopsguy · 10-26-2009, 05:19 PM

By the way, this is what I show for votes:

Abe - Lathum (536), NTN (538), Lerri (568), Hoops (639)
NTN - RA (569), Chief (622), Abe (628), CW (631)
CW - KWhit (633)

PurdueBrad · 10-26-2009, 05:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

PB, can you explore the "all wolves moved their votes" logic as we seem to have some differing opinions between your comments, Lathum's earlier logic, and something Chief said late last night.

It seems like we have a few experienced players who are viewing the late movement differently and I want to understand the positions that are being staked.

Note - this is not a question I would care about 10 minutes before deadline but we've got a little time on our hands here.

Sorry this took so long, just got home from work.

Yeah, my thoughts are this. The wolves knew enough to block my action with the werewolf despite the fact that I looked like one of the top two lynch candidates all day. If I were them, I would've enslutted somebody who was off the radar rather than me. It is certainly possible that they submitted a claim with conditionals but I think it was a move that once I was revealed as Shaggy, a none too threatening role, that they block me rather than kill me.

What this means though is that a wolf/wolves that were on made that decision. So my argument, looking at the names of people who's votes did not move, I don't recall seeing any/many of them online post reveal. To make the move to block me, the wolves had to be on-line to make that decision.

Does that answer what you are going for? If not, let me know, and I'll try to answer more thoroughly.

GoldenEagle · 10-26-2009, 05:24 PM

It looks like it will be another close vote, which is good for the village. I am not sure which way I am leaning yet. Who else has not voted?

PurdueBrad · 10-26-2009, 05:24 PM

I am likely voting ntn or voting off the page to somebody else that I am HIGHly (hehe, high) suspicious of. I'll consider my daze and confusion for a little bit longer but it'll be one of those two.

hoopsguy · 10-26-2009, 05:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Sorry this took so long, just got home from work.

Yeah, my thoughts are this. The wolves knew enough to block my action with the werewolf despite the fact that I looked like one of the top two lynch candidates all day. If I were them, I would've enslutted somebody who was off the radar rather than me. It is certainly possible that they submitted a claim with conditionals but I think it was a move that once I was revealed as Shaggy, a none too threatening role, that they block me rather than kill me.

What this means though is that a wolf/wolves that were on made that decision. So my argument, looking at the names of people who's votes did not move, I don't recall seeing any/many of them online post reveal. To make the move to block me, the wolves had to be on-line to make that decision.

Does that answer what you are going for? If not, let me know, and I'll try to answer more thoroughly.

Well, what I take from it is that 1+ wolves were online to change their order to block your action. But I do not see a correlation to them moving (or not moving) their votes near the deadline. Are you drawing any conclusions, one way or another, in that area? Because I thought you were initially but I don't see that covered in the quote above.

hoopsguy · 10-26-2009, 05:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

It looks like it will be another close vote, which is good for the village. I am not sure which way I am leaning yet. Who else has not voted?

You, JAG, Jackal, MartinD, EagleFan (was not bold, did not count), J23, and PB.

PurdueBrad · 10-26-2009, 05:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Well, what I take from it is that 1+ wolves were online to change their order to block your action. But I do not see a correlation to them moving (or not moving) their votes near the deadline. Are you drawing any conclusions, one way or another, in that area? Because I thought you were initially but I don't see that covered in the quote above.

Almost everyone that was online moved their vote so yeah, I am saying that I think wolves move their votes. I'll have to go back to see who was online and didn't move but I think most moved.

JAG · 10-26-2009, 05:51 PM

Not sure which way to go at this point and I have to run for now, but I should be back at some point before deadline.

hoopsguy · 10-26-2009, 06:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Almost everyone that was online moved their vote so yeah, I am saying that I think wolves move their votes. I'll have to go back to see who was online and didn't move but I think most moved.

I would agree that most moved off of you if they were online in an attempt to curry trust later. But would they all have moved over to Telle? Why would people on Abe move to Telle?

I think this line of thought makes more sense if you think Abe = wolf. If it was three different villagers then why do they care where they move?

If Abe did not pick up any votes from the people moving off you then that might suggest something else entirely ... I really need to cut/paste that voting chart in Notepad rather than having to keep finding that post again and again.

Raiders Army · 10-26-2009, 06:17 PM

Well, at this point it's a two horse race and I'm interested to find out what happens. I won't be on until after the deadline so at this point, I'll leave my vote as is on ntn.

MartinD · 10-26-2009, 06:20 PM

Looks like a two-option vote today...

Neither Abe or ntndeacon look particularly good from the vote analysis - of course, given the limited information available on Day 1, this may not mean very much. That said, it's all we have to go on...

I have a little bit more suspicion of Abe, and I think that we learn a bit more by lynching him, so:

VOTE ABE SARGENT

10-26-2009, 03:29 PM	#604
GoldenEagle Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Little Rock, AR	I am not going to lie, I really don't have a vibe on anyone at this point. Raiders Army and ntn sound like the best candidates right now, and my vote will likely be going on one of these two. __________________ Xbox 360 Gamer Tag: GoldenEagle014

10-26-2009, 04:15 PM	#622
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	Okay, I wish I could devote more time to think about this, but I'm still hip deep in work here. I have caught up to this point in the reading. Right now, we don't have a real race. I was on Abe Friday and stuck with him, and I still think he could be a wolf. But my reasoning for the vote there was what I thought to be an oddlike stretch of "un-Abe-like" votes that day (something he has vehemently denied is out of the ordinary, but I'm not the only one who felt that way). Point is, I have far from conclusive opinions as to ABe's actual allegiance, and the discussion on ntn/RA (with the oddly timed votes), which I commented some on last night, is, IMO, a bit more suspicious than my initial impression of Abe's play. I'm not sure I entirely agree with hoop's reasoning that we shouldn't involve Abe in a close vote, since I think we can still learn something from it. But I do agree that ntn (or RA) should at least get a look, and I am fine with that showdown being between ntn and Abe. Since at this point, I believe Abe holds a healthy lead, I am going to tighten things up with, IMO, the more suspicious of the two. VOTE NTNDEACON __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

10-26-2009, 04:26 PM	#625
Schmidty Coordinator Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Early, TX	I have a really busy day today, so I might be a little late at deadline. Worst case would be 9:30 pm. I'll try my best to be on time though. Tomorrow's crazy too. I work all day, and then go directly to my tutoring job. Just a heads-up. __________________ Just beat the devil out of it!!! - Bob Ross

10-26-2009, 04:27 PM	#626
Schmidty Coordinator Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Early, TX	__________________ Just beat the devil out of it!!! - Bob Ross

10-26-2009, 04:32 PM	#628
Abe Sargent Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Catonsville, MD	Mondays are usually my busy day of the week and today is no exception. I should be back laters, but just in case the random stuff happens, let me go ahead and cast my SD vote now. vote ntndeacon __________________ Check out my two current weekly Magic columns! https://www.coolstuffinc.com/a/?action=search&page=1&author[]=Abe%20Sargent

10-26-2009, 03:32 PM	#605
JAG Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: St. Paul, MN	My list is incorrect btw, lerriuqs had voted for RA but switched to Abe.

10-26-2009, 03:33 PM	#606
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	To respond to JAG's post, I was not in the thread post PB's reveal. But I'm not sure I would have moved my vote from Abe. And to respond to something hoops said on the last page, the main reason I haven't voted Abe yet is because I don't want it to be a runaway. Trying to see what people are doing, and it's not much thus far.

10-26-2009, 03:37 PM	#607
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Question for NTN if/when he gets back - you were pretty willing to make this a "you vs Abe" contest this morning, based on putting a self-defense vote on Abe when the tally was 1-0 early this morning. Now that you have a few hours and some more posts to evaluate, do you still think Abe is the right way to go today? Why or why not?

10-26-2009, 03:39 PM	#610
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	EF, do you have a count for how many votes were uncast at the time the Telle run started? Were everyone's votes in and accounted for?

10-26-2009, 03:40 PM	#611
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	EF, did you not make that vote bold on purpose, or what?

10-26-2009, 03:46 PM	#615
JAG Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: St. Paul, MN	Or if you mean right when it started: (324) J23 unvotes PurdueBrad (AS 8, PB 4, Danny 3, RA 1) (16/18 votes in) (344) PurdueBrad unvotes Danny (AS 8, PB 4, Danny 2, RA 1) (346) PurdueBrad votes Telle (AS 8, PB 4, Danny 2, RA 1, Telle 1) (16/18 votes in at this point)

10-26-2009, 03:50 PM	#617
KWhit Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Conyers GA	I also am just not buying the ntn is a wolf idea currently. Ntn was on Purduebrad at the time of his reveal. If he was a wolf, he could have simply put his vote on Danny or Abe to blend in, but he brought me in as a somewhat off the wall candidate. I don't think a wolf makes that move.

10-26-2009, 03:51 PM	#618
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	I mistook two different events. The Telle run an the reveal. Abe was actually leading when the Telle run started but not when the PB reveal happened. Not sure how much time was involved in between those events at the moment though.

10-26-2009, 03:54 PM	#620
Coffee Warlord Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Colorado Springs	Something else that may or may not be relevant, but additional food for thought. I voted Abe to force a tie at 6 / 6. Both subsequent votes went to PB, from KWhit and RA, followed by PB's reveal.

10-26-2009, 03:55 PM	#621
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	PB, can you explore the "all wolves moved their votes" logic as we seem to have some differing opinions between your comments, Lathum's earlier logic, and something Chief said late last night. It seems like we have a few experienced players who are viewing the late movement differently and I want to understand the positions that are being staked. Note - this is not a question I would care about 10 minutes before deadline but we've got a little time on our hands here.

10-26-2009, 04:22 PM	#623
KWhit Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Conyers GA	Anybody have a vote count?

10-26-2009, 04:25 PM	#624
KWhit Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Conyers GA	I'm going to have to get a vote in pretty soon, and unfortunately I don't really like any of the candidates we've talked about so far. I'm thinking the wolves are likely playing it closer to the vest than NTN or RA have been. And since the run away from Abe was started by villagers, I'm guessing Abe is a good guy too. I don't have a real good other candidate to offer up at this point, though. But I'm still looking for one.

10-26-2009, 04:27 PM	#627
Coffee Warlord Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Colorado Springs	Got about an hour and a half to make up my mind. Wanna have a vote in before I head home from work.

10-26-2009, 04:33 PM	#629
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Abe, if the vote was not self-defense then how do you interpret Day 1 and the movement (or lack thereof) around you today? You, and the wolves (assuming these are mutually exclusive groups) have more info than the rest of us on the subject so I would have liked to see more posting from you today than we've gotten so far.

10-26-2009, 04:39 PM	#630
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	I'm almost positive that I will not be voting for NTN today. He feels like a fairly convenient choice for the wolves, who can "piggy back" on the logic of the cleared Scooby as justification for their choice. Plus I'm not all that enthused about the group of voters who are currently on him.

10-26-2009, 04:39 PM	#631
Coffee Warlord Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Colorado Springs	Think I'm gonna follow the early lead on this one. It was ntn/RA to begin the day for me, and RA got worked out. Which leaves ntn. Barring something interesting coming up... VOTE NTNDEACON

10-26-2009, 04:42 PM	#632
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	Well that's an interesting three vote run there.

10-26-2009, 04:47 PM	#633
KWhit Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Conyers GA	I'm going to go a different direction. I think that we were likely looking at 3 villagers on the block yesterday between Abe, PB and then Telle. I also know that I am a villager (you guys don't, I know, but it gives me one more data point to look at). So when I look at Coffee Warlord's vote history, I see that he started on me. Then he votes for Abe. And then finishes up on Telle. I personally know that I am a villager. I have a slight gut feel that Abe is one too. And we know that Telle is. This is kind of a shot in the dark vote based on my gut. I was looking for someone who didn't seem to over-switch their vote, but who had votes on multiple villagers (or people I suspect are villagers). Vote Coffee Warlord

10-26-2009, 04:58 PM	#634
Coffee Warlord Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Colorado Springs	For what it's worth (and I frankly was a little curious that no one HAD questioned my votes yesterday)... Vote 1 - You. I refreshed the page and saw that green thing you call a costume. Voted. Simple as that. I should vote you about three more times for that god awful thing. Vote 2 - Abe. At the time, it was 5/6 Abe/PB, with about 90 minutes left. With no information to go on, I decided my best move was to force a tie. Whether or not it accomplished anything is a matter of debate, but there was my logic there. Vote 3 - Telle. Didn't have a lot of time to think that one over (and technically, I missed the vote entirely), but I chose I to hop over. I felt, and still do, that Abe was kosher. Only reason I had a vote on him in the first place was to force the tie between him and PB.

10-26-2009, 05:01 PM	#635
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	Why did you want to force a tie? Ties result in a no lynch. You just didn't want to be a deciding vote?

10-26-2009, 05:03 PM	#636
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	My vote stays with Abe, to me that is the most logical. Yes the seer may have scanned him, but I don't want to have to wait for the seer to be outed to learn what we can from that vote.

10-26-2009, 05:18 PM	#639
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	I've still got some time left before leaving the office, but once I leave I do not expect to be back before the deadline. I do not like NTN as the second candidate today, in part because I do not trust the people who are voting for him very far. I'm tempted to put a vote on one of them, but instead I'll just go ahead and vote for Abe and go after these folks if/when Abe shows up as a wolf. If it doesn't play out that way, then I'll have to take a long hard look at my assumptions from the first two days. VOTE ABE SARGENT

10-26-2009, 05:19 PM	#640
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	By the way, this is what I show for votes: Abe - Lathum (536), NTN (538), Lerri (568), Hoops (639) NTN - RA (569), Chief (622), Abe (628), CW (631) CW - KWhit (633)

10-26-2009, 05:24 PM	#642
GoldenEagle Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Little Rock, AR	It looks like it will be another close vote, which is good for the village. I am not sure which way I am leaning yet. Who else has not voted? __________________ Xbox 360 Gamer Tag: GoldenEagle014

10-26-2009, 05:24 PM	#643
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	I am likely voting ntn or voting off the page to somebody else that I am HIGHly (hehe, high) suspicious of. I'll consider my daze and confusion for a little bit longer but it'll be one of those two.

10-26-2009, 05:51 PM	#647
JAG Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: St. Paul, MN	Not sure which way to go at this point and I have to run for now, but I should be back at some point before deadline.

10-26-2009, 06:17 PM	#649
Raiders Army Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: The Black Hole	Well, at this point it's a two horse race and I'm interested to find out what happens. I won't be on until after the deadline so at this point, I'll leave my vote as is on ntn.

10-26-2009, 06:20 PM	#650
MartinD High School Varsity Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: East Lothian, Scotland	Looks like a two-option vote today... Neither Abe or ntndeacon look particularly good from the vote analysis - of course, given the limited information available on Day 1, this may not mean very much. That said, it's all we have to go on... I have a little bit more suspicion of Abe, and I think that we learn a bit more by lynching him, so: VOTE ABE SARGENT

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