2015 MLB thread

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

As was I

You're right, I misread.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

How about his career then .

His ERA+ since he's been in the league:

2009: 114 (Age 20, only year he outperformed FIP)
2010: 85 (21)
2011: 87 (22)
2012: 93 (23)
2013: 96 (24)
2014: 115 (Age 25)

His career ERA+ is 97.

Now his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) has been consistently lower than his ERA in Detroit (aside from last year, interestingly enough), so perhaps his below average numbers are due to poor defense by the Tigers. However, his FIP is once again below his ERA early on in Boston.

It appears his career Wins Above Average (WAA) is slightly above average for his career at 0.7, but that is definitely bolstered by his 2.1 WAA last season.

He's got 10.6 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) in 6 (full) seasons - that's 1.7 WAR per season (and consider that includes last year when he had 4.0 WAR). That's fairly below average.

Now, 91 may be "solid" when compared to the rest of the pitching staff this season in Boston, but he's definitely not a solid pitcher in the average.

I think I had this debate when Porcello was traded for. How much is up for debate, but as a GB pitcher he was unquestionably hurt by Detroit's atrocious infield D, even though he's been around for 6 seasons he's still just 26 (younger than last year's RoY Jacob DeGrom f.e.) and hopefully entering his prime, and there is some indication he's been a better pitcher the last couple years (K/BB rate never above 2.43 first 4 seasons, at least 3.15 last 3.) The contract was definitely an overpay in $/y but the Red Sox love that it ends at age 30 and were willing to pay a premium for that (plus he probably would've come a lot closer to $20m/y on the open market this coming winter than people think with the drastically increasing revenues).

But mostly I think you're just overreacting to my use of the word solid. The hope is that some of last year's improved results were a sustainable improvement from a developing pitcher (who, again, was 25 then and theoretically shouldn't even be in his prime yet), but even if he just pitches 180+ innings at a league average ERA that's "solid" in my book. There were a total of 58 qualifying starters with an ERA+ >100 last year, a.k.a. 2 per team.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Grover

Free Brian Johnson.

I agree I think he's jumped Owens in the pecking order and I'd take a whole lot of people over Masterson at this point (agree with giving Wright first shot), but Johnson's not exactly been held down like a Youkilis was. The guy was in A 2 years ago, had a (very good) AA season last year, and less than 30 AAA IP. Plus he's still got a AAA teammate with markedly better numbers and better scouting reports/a higher ceiling in Eduardo Rodriguez who's already on the 40 man roster.

I definitely wouldn't mind a fake injury to Kelly or Mikey so we can start getting a look at the young guys before deciding whether to trade for a good starter, and who to include in that trade.

[Chief Rum]

I realize he just tweaked his ankle, which could delay things, but thoughts from Boston fans on Rusney Castillo?

I have heard in a couple places he could be up with the team by next week (although this might just be some observers fervent desires). It looks like he is doing okay at Pawtucket, but he hasn't shown much power so far.

Do you guys think he will be coming up and starting soon, and does he seem to be worth picking up in fantasy leagues?

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I realize he just tweaked his ankle, which could delay things, but thoughts from Boston fans on Rusney Castillo?

I have heard in a couple places he could be up with the team by next week (although this might just be some observers fervent desires). It looks like he is doing okay at Pawtucket, but he hasn't shown much power so far.

Do you guys think he will be coming up and starting soon, and does he seem to be worth picking up in fantasy leagues?

Keeper league yes, 2015 league idk. The Red Sox seem a lot less eager to give up on Shane Victorino than the masses are, so I just don't know if he'll be more than a platoon guy until an injury to Hanley/Betts/Victorino occurs (of course, given Hanley and Vic's history, that's like a 10% chance any given day. Although, Castillo's assortment of small injuries is starting to get worrisome in its own right. The ankle sounded precautionary, but he might very well have too big a physique for his frame and the muscle pulls worry me.)

I think the power from Castillo will be fine, and the plate discipline has been surprisingly good. Best guess maybe a .350 OBP/.400 SLG with 20-25 SB's if given a full season. But again, playing time is an issue and I'm not sure he'll be more than just the strong side of a platoon when he first comes up.

[Grover]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I realize he just tweaked his ankle, which could delay things, but thoughts from Boston fans on Rusney Castillo?

I have heard in a couple places he could be up with the team by next week (although this might just be some observers fervent desires). It looks like he is doing okay at Pawtucket, but he hasn't shown much power so far.

Do you guys think he will be coming up and starting soon, and does he seem to be worth picking up in fantasy leagues?

Honestly, I haven't heard much about him on local radio or in print. They've still got that logjam in the OF with Betts/Ramirez/Victorino/Nava... they've demoted Craig down to Pawtucket just so he can get ABs.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

But mostly I think you're just overreacting to my use of the word solid. The hope is that some of last year's improved results were a sustainable improvement from a developing pitcher (who, again, was 25 then and theoretically shouldn't even be in his prime yet), but even if he just pitches 180+ innings at a league average ERA that's "solid" in my book. There were a total of 58 qualifying starters with an ERA+ >100 last year, a.k.a. 2 per team.

Perhaps, but I think of a solid starter as more than just league average, personally (for example a Fangraphs article today just referred to Lance Lynn as 'solid'). The Mets have had plenty of those league average inning eaters lately (Dillion Gee, Jon Niese - though Niese has started this year much better than the rest of his career) and I've pined for more solid starters.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Grover

Honestly, I haven't heard much about him on local radio or in print. They've still got that logjam in the OF with Betts/Ramirez/Victorino/Nava... they've demoted Craig down to Pawtucket just so he can get ABs.

Once Craig got away from the cardinals laboratory he started to go downhill.

[Grover]

Originally Posted by stevew

Once Craig got away from the cardinals laboratory he started to go downhill.

Heh.

[Grover]

That trade certainly did not work out as well as Red Sox Nation thought it was going to. Craig and Kelly have both been trash.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Perhaps, but I think of a solid starter as more than just league average, personally (for example a Fangraphs article today just referred to Lance Lynn as 'solid'). The Mets have had plenty of those league average inning eaters lately (Dillion Gee, Jon Niese - though Niese has started this year much better than the rest of his career) and I've pined for more solid starters.

Elsewhere I've also seen huge debates over the word Ace. Are there 30 "Aces" out there, or really only 10-12 at a given time? Likewise, Porcello is definitely among the top 90 starters and probably around #60... So he's solidly a borderline 2/3 starter once you factor in his durability.

Was there really a contingent (well, outside of Yawkey Way) that liked that Lackey trade? I think everyone assumed Craig was hurt and would bounce back (and, yeesh, he HAS to bounce back a little) but everything I remember was people being disappointed we didn't get a Wacha/Martinez or at least a Piscotty if we were giving up that year of Lackey at 500k.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I realize he just tweaked his ankle, which could delay things, but thoughts from Boston fans on Rusney Castillo?

I have heard in a couple places he could be up with the team by next week (although this might just be some observers fervent desires). It looks like he is doing okay at Pawtucket, but he hasn't shown much power so far.

Do you guys think he will be coming up and starting soon, and does he seem to be worth picking up in fantasy leagues?

2 HR and a 2B tonight... Told ya the power is fine Shane Victorino actually looking good at the plate though, so he's still an injury away. (And of course, Allen Craig is OPS'ing 1.000 and Jackie Bradley .857, so take all AAA stats with a grain of salt.)

[kingfc22]

Can the Giants face the Reds everyday? Fun to actually turn a game on and see they are up big 3 days in a row.

[Grover]

[BillJasper]

GM Dan Jennings to be named the Marlins new manager. And it’s a terrible idea. | HardballTalk

What the hell are they smoking in South Florida?!?

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by BillJasper

GM Dan Jennings to be named the Marlins new manager. And it’s a terrible idea. | HardballTalk

What the hell are they smoking in South Florida?!?

I only got to see the team president/CEO for one episode of Survivor (since he was the first one voted out), but what I saw of him didn't exactly show me he was a good or decisive leader in any way.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

I only got to see the team president/CEO for one episode of Survivor (since he was the first one voted out), but what I saw of him didn't exactly show me he was a good or decisive leader in any way.

You think?

David Samson says he, Mike Hill & Dan Jennings were on the call without Jeffrey Loria, then had "an epiphany" on Jennings as next manager

— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) May 18, 2015

Also, the Marlins are on manager #8 over the last six seasons.

[BillJasper]

They were likely passing around a crack pipe when said epiphany happened.

[MizzouRah]

Lackey is pitching great tonight.. but Harvey.. good grief he has not missed a beat since tommy john surgery.. 97 mph fb to go along with the rest of his pitches?

[Lathum]

Is it like, a law that the Oakland As must have a goofy guy with glasses at all times?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

Lackey is pitching great tonight.. but Harvey.. good grief he has not missed a beat since tommy john surgery.. 97 mph fb to go along with the rest of his pitches?

He is filthy. I just wish they could score some more runs for him.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by Lathum

He is filthy. I just wish they could score some more runs for him.

Yeah he doesn't get much run support. One of the best pitchers in the game from what I just watched last night.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Fun to watch the Cueto/Ventura matchup tonight. Both pitchers actually pitched well. Just a couple more clutch hits from the Royals tonight.

[cuervo72]

Ok, I'm sold. I think this is the Nats' year.

[Lathum]

I have no love for Bryce Harper, but that was total BS last night. And I may have had him on most of my DFS teams

[Grover]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I have no love for Bryce Harper, but that was total BS last night. And I may have had him on most of my DFS teams

Just ridiculous. His reputation is starting to precede him.

[MrBug708]

Some umpires are just obnoxious

[Grover]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Some umpires are just obnoxious

That particular ump didn't throw out a single player last year

[Logan]

The ump was definitely looking for a fight. That being said, when the ump is telling you to get back in the box, and you make a big show about pointing at where he wants you, and then you further the show by being so clear about just sticking your toe in the box, your night is going to be over.

[Lathum]

His line about 40K people not coming to watch the ump, while arrogant, is spot on.

[stevew]

Wow, that's obnoxious. The penalty is a called strike, right? Not an ejection.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by Logan

The ump was definitely looking for a fight. That being said, when the ump is telling you to get back in the box, and you make a big show about pointing at where he wants you, and then you further the show by being so clear about just sticking your toe in the box, your night is going to be over.

This

[AENeuman]

Originally Posted by Logan

The ump was definitely looking for a fight. That being said, when the ump is telling you to get back in the box, and you make a big show about pointing at where he wants you, and then you further the show by being so clear about just sticking your toe in the box, your night is going to be over.

Agree. But an umpire telling a batter to get in the box while their mask is off (to yell at the manager) is a clown act.

I prefer Brad Pitt and Morgan Freedman arguing about the box.

[Lathum]

DeGrom with his best start of the season gives the Mets exactly what they need. 8 innings, one hit, a first inning single, and 11 Ks. Terry Collins pulls him after 8 leaving it up to Familia. If he blows it Collins is going to get roasted. DeGrom is at 104 pitches.

Should leave him in IMO.

[Lathum]

Mets score 3 in the bottom of the 8th to make it far less dramatic. thrilled with a split against St. Louis.

When DeGrom is on he is the best pitcher in baseball, totally unhittable.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Mets score 3 in the bottom of the 8th to make it far less dramatic. thrilled with a split against St. Louis.

When DeGrom is on he is the best pitcher in baseball, totally unhittable.

The way you describe him makes me think he is a Royal

[ISiddiqui]

LOL!

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

The way you describe him makes me think he is a Royal

He hasn't been ejected this year.

[cartman]

Not only did Bumgarner get the win in the showdown with Kershaw, he got the lone run the Giants needed when he homered off of him.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by cartman

Not only did Bumgarner get the win in the showdown with Kershaw, he got the lone run the Giants needed when he homered off of him.

Happened last year when Kershaw beat him 1-0 with a solo shot.

Dodgers can'tbeat the Giants right now at all. 0-6 in SF

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by stevew

Wow, that's obnoxious. The penalty is a called strike, right? Not an ejection.

Correct.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Originally Posted by cartman

Not only did Bumgarner get the win in the showdown with Kershaw, he got the lone run the Giants needed when he homered off of him.

And if you haven't seen the home run, it's worth queueing it up on MLB.com. An absolute no-doubter off the bat. I'm just sad that eventually pitchers are going to realize that Bumgarner sits dead read on the first pitch (and nearly every other pitch, honestly) and he can actually hit a fastball really well.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Happened last year when Kershaw beat him 1-0 with a solo shot.

Dodgers can'tbeat the Giants right now at all. 0-6 in SF

What's the current time table for Puig's return?

[Chief Rum]

Garrett Richards returns to Fenway tonight. First time since his injury there last August.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Fired up for the big weekend series between what most consider the two best teams in baseball. Wish I was going to a game, but should be a blast to watch.

[cartman]

Yeah, the Astros/Tigers series should be a good one to watch

[Suicane75]

Originally Posted by cartman

This

The way I saw it was that he wasn't showing him up, he was trying to show him where he was standing when the ump started heading towards the Nats dugout.

[Grover]

Kendrys Morales you beautiful bastard.

2/2, 2HR, 2R, 5RBI.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Grover

Kendrys Morales you beautiful bastard.

2/2, 2HR, 2R, 5RBI.

He's been exactly what this team needed. Consistent hitting machine with HR power. Basically every complaint that people had with Billy Butler has been answered by Kendrys Morales.

[rowech]

Rumor is that Cueto is no longer starting tomorrow. Seems early to be traded but maybe not.