2013-14 NBA Offseason/Draft Thread

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

Rondo to Houston or Charlotte?

What's the Knicks and Nets win totals this year? 70 games because Philly and Boston will lose every game?

I don't see how he fits with Houston. They don't need a shoot first PG.

SI

[nol]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I don't see how he fits with Houston. They don't need a shoot first PG.

SI

Rondo is actually pass-first to a fault. Apparently Dwight and his people don't want Rondo in Houston, so it's unlikely he ends up there.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Mike D

BREAKING NEWS: ESPN reporting that Kobe Bryant has stopped following Dwight Howard on Twitter.

Blame Bill Simmons

[murrayyyyy]

The Nets will spend 70+ million in luxury taxes next year with their roster. Did someone inform Prokhorov about the luxury tax changing? The Lakers just paid 29 million with the same salary figure this year.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

The Nets will spend 70+ million in luxury taxes next year with their roster. Did someone inform Prokhorov about the luxury tax changing? The Lakers just paid 29 million with the same salary figure this year.

Isn't he the owner people wants? He will do whatever it takes to win.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by nol

Rondo is actually pass-first to a fault.

Yeah, I can see arguing they don't want a ball-dominant PG like Rondo when you have a great pick and roll guard in Harden and base your offense around the slash and kick game, but shoot-first is the last adjective I'd use to describe Rondo.

[korme]

Just a point of reference - Free Agent Tracker | NBA.com

[Qwikshot]

I wonder if the Sixers will forgo a coach this season.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

The Nets will spend 70+ million in luxury taxes next year with their roster. Did someone inform Prokhorov about the luxury tax changing? The Lakers just paid 29 million with the same salary figure this year.

$70m? He calls that pocket change.

[Blackadar]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I don't see how he fits with Houston. They don't need a shoot first PG.

SI

You couldn't be more wrong about a player in trying to describe Rondo as shoot first. That's like calling Brian Scalabrine the next Michael Jordan.

[Izulde]

Originally Posted by nol

Rondo is actually pass-first to a fault.

This.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by nol

Rondo is actually pass-first to a fault. Apparently Dwight and his people don't want Rondo in Houston, so it's unlikely he ends up there.

Dwight not a fan of easy looks at the rim? That's just silly.

Sure they have a great slashing guard in Harden, but jeez...Rondo could get Howard so many easy baskets it's scary. Look how good Rondo made KENDRICK PERKINS look offensively.

[Groundhog]

Warriors have quietly done very, very well for themselves IMO. Obviously Iggy is big, but also replacing Jack and Landry with Speights and Toney Douglas - basically budget versions of the same players. If Bogut can survive the season I don't see why the Warriors can't be a very good team.

[nol]

I'd venture a guess that a substantially higher proportion of Rondo's assists come from contested long twos (think kick-outs to KG and Bass) than from open looks at the rim.

[Groundhog]

I don't know that, given the 4-out style the Rockets are going to play, Rondo is their guy. I don't know that Lin is either really, but Harden is going to be the guy handling the rock anyway, might be better just to have a dude that can hit an open 3.

[murrayyyyy]

Bynum signs with the Cavs a two year deal worth 24 million. Not bad for a guy who average zero shots over the past year.

[murrayyyyy]

Ah, it's not worth that much really, thanks ESPN headlines. No wonder your ratings are in the shitter...

The Cavs hold a team option for the second year of the deal, and only $6 million of the contract is guaranteed, according to sources.

[Groundhog]

Personally, I think it's a great move. Low risk/high reward.

[Groundhog]

dola

And I don't even like Bynum. But in the low chance that he stays healthy....

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

I don't know that, given the 4-out style the Rockets are going to play, Rondo is their guy. I don't know that Lin is either really, but Harden is going to be the guy handling the rock anyway, might be better just to have a dude that can hit an open 3.

Oh I do agree with you here, no doubt.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by nol

I'd venture a guess that a substantially higher proportion of Rondo's assists come from contested long twos (think kick-outs to KG and Bass) than from open looks at the rim.

I wonder if there's stats on that anywhere. I dunno about a "substantially higher" proportion at all. A significant % sure, maybe even more than "at the rim." But he gets plenty at the rim too.

Boom

http://www.stats.com/pdfs/NBA_Inside...tLocations.pdf

While Rondo plays with a group of players that have mastered range shooting, he was still able to lead
the league in 0-5 foot potential assists per game at 4.3. These opportunities only comprised of 21% of
his overall potential assists, but he led the league in overall potential assists per game at 20.2 per game.

[nol]

I've read that exact same article. It goes on to say that he is third-worst in the league at the percentage of his potential assists that come from long twos, ranking behind only Derrick Rose (who can score) and Kemba Walker (who doesn't have anyone to pass to).

The fact that he still has the highest amount of assists at the rim just shows that he's a volume passer in the same way that Carmelo is a volume scorer.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by nol

I've read that exact same article. It goes on to say that he is third-worst in the league at the percentage of his potential assists that come from long twos, ranking behind only Derrick Rose (who can score) and Kemba Walker (who doesn't have anyone to pass to).

The fact that he still has the highest amount of assists at the rim just shows that he's a volume passer in the same way that Carmelo is a volume scorer.

That's b/c long two's are the lowest percentage shots.

What's wrong with him being a volume passer? Isn't that traditionally the role of a PG?

[nol]

Worst here means that the highest percentage of potential assists come from the inefficient long twos.

Passing a lot is normally a good thing, but it is possible to be selfish about getting assists. It's like how Melo could score much more easily by being a better/more willing passer since defenses wouldn't be able to key on him as much. Likewise, if Rondo looked for his own shot at the rim more often, he could get his assists with a lower degree of difficulty. He'd have fewer insane double-clutch, behind-the-back kick-outs, but he'd create many more dump-off opportunities for a big man or a cutter.

[ColtCrazy]

Had the summer league games on in the background while working today. Fairly impressed with the play of Pressey from the Celtics. Some quality passing, could see him sticking somewhere.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by nol

Worst here means that the highest percentage of potential assists come from the inefficient long twos.

Passing a lot is normally a good thing, but it is possible to be selfish about getting assists. It's like how Melo could score much more easily by being a better/more willing passer since defenses wouldn't be able to key on him as much. Likewise, if Rondo looked for his own shot at the rim more often, he could get his assists with a lower degree of difficulty. He'd have fewer insane double-clutch, behind-the-back kick-outs, but he'd create many more dump-off opportunities for a big man or a cutter.

Yes, I understand all that.

Unfortunately Rondo can't shoot for shit. At the rim sure, if he can get there, he's ALRIGHT. But from anything away from the rim he's horrible, so you absolutely don't want him looking for his shot AT ALL. EVER.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by ColtCrazy

Had the summer league games on in the background while working today. Fairly impressed with the play of Pressey from the Celtics. Some quality passing, could see him sticking somewhere.

BITE YOUR TONGUE!

[nol]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Yes, I understand all that.

Unfortunately Rondo can't shoot for shit. At the rim sure, if he can get there, he's ALRIGHT. But from anything away from the rim he's horrible, so you absolutely don't want him looking for his shot AT ALL. EVER.

He doesn't even need to get better at shooting. He's quick enough (was, at least: ACL recovery pending) to get to the rim even when everyone goes under the screens and dares him to shoot. That, combined with his craftiness and athleticism, is more than enough to allow him to finish over and around lots of defenders, or at least get to the line. Rondo shoots 60% at the rim and 60% on free throws, so exchanging a few kick-outs to semi-contested jump shooters for a few decent layup attempts would certainly result in more points even before figuring for the passing lanes that would open up if defense had to account for the possibility of Rondo as a scorer.

To this point, Rondo's benefited from the fact that humans are born with 10 fingers and toes, which led us to adopt the base-10 numeral system, which makes getting 13-11-10 cooler than 19-9-9 because OMG TRIPLE DOUBLE

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Unfortunately Rondo can't shoot for shit. At the rim sure, if he can get there, he's ALRIGHT. But from anything away from the rim he's horrible, so you absolutely don't want him looking for his shot AT ALL. EVER.

Rondo's improved and is an underrated shooter on long 2's, plus he finishes well at the rim http://www.hoopdata.com/player.aspx?name=Rajon%20Rondo .

Originally Posted by nol

Worst here means that the highest percentage of potential assists come from the inefficient long twos.

Passing a lot is normally a good thing, but it is possible to be selfish about getting assists. It's like how Melo could score much more easily by being a better/more willing passer since defenses wouldn't be able to key on him as much. Likewise, if Rondo looked for his own shot at the rim more often, he could get his assists with a lower degree of difficulty. He'd have fewer insane double-clutch, behind-the-back kick-outs, but he'd create many more dump-off opportunities for a big man or a cutter.

Rondo does go through his weird stretches (certainly when he was going for his 10+ assist game streak) where he looks to pass wayyyy too much, but I'm not sure how much you can those percentages on Rondo. His main pick and roll partner has been Kevin Garnett, who loves to pick and pop - pair him with a Blake Griffin or Tyson Chandler who crashes to the basket most of the time and I'm sure his percentages would change.

Overall though, Houston makes no sense.

[Izulde]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

Personally, I think it's a great move. Low risk/high reward.

Yep. At that price tag, with those conditions, it's worth a shot in the dark for a guy who can be dominant if they're healthy.

[nol]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Rondo does go through his weird stretches (certainly when he was going for his 10+ assist game streak) where he looks to pass wayyyy too much, but I'm not sure how much you can those percentages on Rondo. His main pick and roll partner has been Kevin Garnett, who loves to pick and pop - pair him with a Blake Griffin or Tyson Chandler who crashes to the basket most of the time and I'm sure his percentages would change.

Overall though, Houston makes no sense.

He'll definitely change up his style somewhat now that Garnett's gone, but the main benefit of a pick and pop guy shouldn't be the shot itself. A pick and pop guy is supposed to allow your guard an easier path to get to the rim since the opposing big guy can't do as good a job at cutting off the guard's penetration because he's also worrying about getting back to the shooter. That leaves just one big guy to protect the rim, and that sets up the whole cascade of help defense that usually results in the corner threes everyone loves so much.

Since Rondo can't shoot and doesn't look to attack the rim, you can just play vanilla defense where everyone stays on his original man and Rondo's defender trails him as he heads into the paint. Since Rondo's defender just has to be in his general vicinity to dissuade him from taking a shot at the rim and nobody else has to overcommit to Rondo, the resulting shot is more likely to be a low-quality look like a contested long two.

If Rondo ran a pick and roll with Chandler or Griffin, the defense would just completely sag in. When Rondo's man goes completely under on a screen, the roll man doesn't have an unimpeded path to crash to the basket. The other three players on the team would need to be ace three-point shooters for the spacing to be anything less than abysmal.

That gets at why it's hard to see Rondo on Houston - or any serious contender - in the near future. When you get deep into the playoffs, the defenses are so good that you need at least three offensive threats on the floor to create some breathing room on that end. Look at how bad the Spurs made Memphis look, and consider how often the Heat's offense did a 180 when they subbed Wade out for a shooter. If your point guard can't shoot, that means at least one of your bigs has to be a shooter, and the list of big guys who can shoot without being a liability on the defensive end is extremely short.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by nol

To this point, Rondo's benefited from the fact that humans are born with 10 fingers and toes, which led us to adopt the base-10 numeral system, which makes getting 13-11-10 cooler than 19-9-9 because OMG TRIPLE DOUBLE

I love this line

SI

[MrBug708]

Howard wanted D'Antoni fired, Kobe amnestied, Gasol traded, and refused to play any PnR offense with Nash. Aside from punching Artest on the way out, not sure how much bigger an F-U he could have sent to the organization.

Good luck Houston!

[whomario]

on that passing stat: Hoopdata - NBA Player Passing Stats

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Howard wanted D'Antoni fired, Kobe amnestied, Gasol traded

Sounds like he'd be a better GM than the one the Lakers have.

[heybrad]

The biggest mystery to me in the whole Dwight Howard saga is that it seems to have been spun that he wanted to be with a great coach and he thinks he's getting that with Kevin McHale. Since when did Kevin McHale become a good coach?

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by nol

Since Rondo can't shoot and doesn't look to attack the rim, you can just play vanilla defense where everyone stays on his original man and Rondo's defender trails him as he heads into the paint. Since Rondo's defender just has to be in his general vicinity to dissuade him from taking a shot at the rim and nobody else has to overcommit to Rondo, the resulting shot is more likely to be a low-quality look like a contested long two.

Do you consider Paul Pierce to be someone who can shoot, and/or likes to attack the rim? (I do.) Because as the other primary ballhandler for the Celtics, he actually has a greater % of assists leading to long 2's than Rondo did. I'm not arguing that some of that high % of assists long 2's isn't on Rondo, but it was also due to our offensive scheme and the big man personnel we had. (Sorry the formatting sucks - link here With Rajon Rondo out for the season, what should the Boston Celtics do now? - Grantland )

Originally Posted by Zach Lowe

Everyone knows Rondo's issues. His jumper is improved but still shaky, and teams ignore him in order to clog Boston's already so-so spacing. Yes, Rondo has hit a career-best 48 percent on long 2-point jumpers this season, a number roughly comparable to those of elite mid-range shooters like Dirk Nowitzki and Chris Paul. But the numbers mask an obvious difference between those guys and Rondo: The jump shots of Nowitzki and Paul are weapons defenses attempt to take away by throwing extra attention at them, and weapons those shooters are comfortable using in high volume. Rondo's jump shot is a wide-open, last-resort look defenses are happy to provide if it means containing other action. Nowitzki might shoot 75 percent on equivalent looks at the hoop.
The shaky jumper means Rondo is of little use off the ball. This is one reason Boston has been unable to properly incorporate Jason Terry, shooting less often than ever and putting up the sort of usage rate we'd expect from a limited offensive player like LARRY SANDERS! Terry's shot selection has changed dramatically this season. Last season, about 26 percent of possessions Terry finished came via pick-and-rolls, with just 7.7 percent coming on Terry attempting a catch-and-shoot after taking an off-ball screen, according to Synergy Sports. Those numbers have flip-flopped this season — 11.7 percent for pick-and-rolls, and 19.9 percent off screens. Going into the Miami game, Terry had attempted 39 shots out of the pick-and-roll, and only nine of them had come with Rondo on the court — even though the two started just about half the season together.
This isn't all on Rondo, as we'll get to later. But Rondo's game is a factor in what has happened to Terry in Boston. Ray Allen, ironically, was probably a better fit for Rondo's skill set. He's three inches taller than Terry with a quicker release, and those things make him more comfortable on the hyper-speed catch-and-shoot attempts that Rondo and Boston's system can create. Terry has been an elite spot-up shooter, but a lot of those looks in Dallas were of the stand-still type Terry could get as defenses bent toward Nowitzki down low.
Back to Rondo: He barely gets to the line and shoots poorly when he gets there. He occasionally looks for passes at the expense of easier shots, most recently when he opted against an uncontested fast-break layup in favor of a ridiculous failed lob pass in a game against New York that the Celtics ultimately lost by three.
Still: Executives around the league view Rondo as a max player or something close to it. He is perhaps the NBA's best passer, with a savant's understanding of how to create space and shooting opportunities for others via an extra dribble or a tiny change of direction. The rumors about his sour personality are true — there are hundreds of whispered "Rondo's a brat" stories floating around the league — but his talent and smarts are overwhelming. Which brings us to the other two reasons league observers pinpoint for Boston's offensive decline: roster construction and coaching.
The puzzling thing about Boston's scoring issues is that the Celtics have always been among the league's best shooting teams, from both 2-point and 3-point range. They just do everything else poorly. They have gotten to the line at average or worse rates. They are legendarily bad at offensive rebounding, mostly because Rivers — coaching alert! — prefers everyone get back on defense. They have been the league's worst turnover team over the last half-decade. And their shot-selection profile has been miserable. Only two teams attempt fewer 3s, and only four attempt more mid-range jump shots. That is a recipe for failure, unless a team supplements those shots with something else — foul shots, fast-break points, etc. Boston does not.
This is where coaching and roster makeup intertwine. Talk to players and coaches about game-planning for Boston, and after the usual polite praise, they'll often mention how Boston lacks a big man who really enjoys setting screens and diving hard to the basket on the pick-and-roll, in the style of Tyson Chandler, Dwight Howard, and any number of lesser big men — Andre Drummond, Omer Asik, Robin Lopez, David West (a great screen-slipper), the old Amar'e Stoudemire, Amir Johnson, Glen Davis, and others.
Brandon Bass and Kevin Garnett are mid-range shooters. Garnett will occasionally take a hard dive to the basket, but he prefers to hold his picks for an extra beat or two, making sure he smushes the point guard chasing Rondo. And he obviously prefers to pop for mid-range jumpers rather than roll to the hoop.
The mere presence of a big man cutting hard to the rim opens up looks all over the floor. Think about all those open 3s Houston, New York, or Indiana get simply because weakside defenders, following common NBA defensive principles, have to crash into the lane to at least bump that rolling big man. Those wing players also get driving opportunities out of that action, as their defenders rush back to close out on them. This stuff is just not a frequent feature of Boston's offense, and that hurts.
Is that on Rivers or the front office? Or both? It's hard to say, since Rivers has sway in personnel decisions — including the trade of Davis for Bass. But there is growing chatter around the league that Rivers, while a very good coach, might need a top offensive coordinator to spice up Boston's stale offense. Rivers is a genius in bonding with players, getting them to buy in on defense, and drawing up plays out of timeouts, but Boston's general offensive look hasn't changed much as the league around the Celtics has evolved.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Sounds like he'd be a better GM than the one the Lakers have.

Why? All of that will happen next offseason and they won't have a whiny superstar

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by heybrad

The biggest mystery to me in the whole Dwight Howard saga is that it seems to have been spun that he wanted to be with a great coach and he thinks he's getting that with Kevin McHale. Since when did Kevin McHale become a good coach?

I don't know about a great overall coach, but on a local (hey, local to you now too!) show yesterday Gary Williams gave the opinion that for coaching a big man, you're not going to get many better than McHale. If Howard is willing to put in the work to improve his game, that is.

[murrayyyyy]

Nets sign AK-47 for 3.1 million... He won't stop spending...

[nol]

Meanwhile, the Lakers sign Nick Young to a one year deal for the minimum.

Twitter / NoeezyRodriguez: @KamBrothers The Cover: ...

[RedKingGold]

...and amnesty World Peace

[Groundhog]

My problem with the Nets remains that they have a lot of good pieces, but I'm finding it hard to picture them all clicking on the court. I see no reason to think that Joe Johnson or Paul Pierce are cut out to succeed in the roles they need to play on this team. Neither these guys are spot up shooters and they both need the ball to create shots. The DWill & KG/Lopez pick and pop/roll options are pretty impressive however.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

My problem with the Nets remains that they have a lot of good pieces, but I'm finding it hard to picture them all clicking on the court. I see no reason to think that Joe Johnson or Paul Pierce are cut out to succeed in the roles they need to play on this team. Neither these guys are spot up shooters and they both need the ball to create shots.

I think Pierce can do just fine as a spot-up shooter, and he'll be willing to accept that role for large stretches of time, possibly with the ability to run the offense for a 3-4 minute stretch each half when DWill is resting. I'm not sure if Johnson is willing yet to defer as much, but I haven't watched him night after night.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

Nets sign AK-47 for 3.1 million... He won't stop spending...

Btw... it's 2 years, $3.1m total (2nd a player option)... what is Prokhorov offering Kirilenko off the books?

[Groundhog]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Btw... it's 2 years, $3.1m total (2nd a player option)... what is Prokhorov offering Kirilenko off the books?

Yeah gives up $10mil for that. Very fishy.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Btw... it's 2 years, $3.1m total (2nd a player option)... what is Prokhorov offering Kirilenko off the books?

His family's life, probably.

[whomario]

Kirilenko could be the key piece to a championship run, perfect glue guy. Should start, too. (and have PP come off the bench).


Kirilenko also donated his entire salary to charity while playing with ZSKA in 11/12 and is notoriously "outside the channels" in terms of rumours (not much leaks) so it´s really not out of the question that he´s willingly forfeiting money to get to play with a contender and the "reasons" given for leaving the Wolves were not accurate at all.
And propably wanted to go to the Nets all along due to the connection with the owner (who owned Kirilenkos home club ZSKA as well), which is why a deal with the Spurs never got anywhere.

Not saying there isn´t something going on here, but it´s not a foregone conclusion imo.

Also, why does this come up here with the bad russians but not with Ray Allen leaving tons of money on the table to play for the Heat ? (or maybe it did, then i missed it)

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by whomario

Kirilenko could be the key piece to a championship run, perfect glue guy. Should start, too. (and have PP come off the bench).


Kirilenko also donated his entire salary to charity while playing with ZSKA in 11/12 and is notoriously "outside the channels" in terms of rumours (not much leaks) so it´s really not out of the question that he´s willingly forfeiting money to get to play with a contender and the "reasons" given for leaving the Wolves were not accurate at all.
And propably wanted to go to the Nets all along due to the connection with the owner (who owned Kirilenkos home club ZSKA as well), which is why a deal with the Spurs never got anywhere.

Not saying there isn´t something going on here, but it´s not a foregone conclusion imo.

Also, why does this come up here with the bad russians but not with Ray Allen leaving tons of money on the table to play for the Heat ? (or maybe it did, then i missed it)

I think they called Judas Shuttleworth when he left. He got the criticism.

[whomario]

yes, he got it for leaving. But did the Heat get accused of paying him under the table ?