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Old 02-19-2008, 10:46 AM   #601
Lorena
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Pretty compelling "evidence" Lathum, but I'm sure it's so you can save your own skin.

Think about it, Lathum was against Grey's plan, was a proponent for No Lynch, and now half the people that scanned him came out as a wolf. C'mon.

I'm not gonna try to defend myself, everytime I do no one listens, but vote for whomever you want, I don't care.

Vote Lathum
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Old 02-19-2008, 10:47 AM   #602
saldana
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dola, i totally agree with your analysis of her regarding the defense of the slip of the tounge
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Old 02-19-2008, 10:48 AM   #603
Lorena
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Originally Posted by ntndeacon View Post
so you think if it is too good to be true it probably is? At least for this game.

It could be, who knows.
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Old 02-19-2008, 10:48 AM   #604
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(_X_)
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Old 02-19-2008, 10:51 AM   #605
MikeVic
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I scanned clap as planned. He came up as wolf.

I don't know if we should take night 0 as hard evidence, but I did have Grey as a villager too.
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Old 02-19-2008, 10:57 AM   #606
Lathum
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dodgerchick View Post
Quote:
Think about it, Lathum was against Grey's plan,

which like I said, didn't work. IIRC you were one of the people who deviated from it.

Quote:
was a proponent for No Lynch,


Which according to the rules was the right move. And oh, If I was a wolf wouldn't I want a day one lynch?

Quote:
and now half the people that scanned him came out as a wolf. C'mon.


Well considering the nature of the game those numbers probably add up.

I think the thing we should be looking at are the people who scanned me despite claiming they were going with the plan.
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Old 02-19-2008, 10:58 AM   #607
Lathum
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my replies are in italics above, it came out jacked up
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Old 02-19-2008, 10:58 AM   #608
Lorena
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Alright, I submitted my PM and I'm scanning Lathum, should I survive the lynch.
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Old 02-19-2008, 11:00 AM   #609
Lorena
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dola,

when i come up villager, you guys know who to gun for.
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Old 02-19-2008, 11:02 AM   #610
Lathum
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dodgerchick View Post
Alright, I submitted my PM and I'm scanning Lathum, should I survive the lynch.

While I have no problem with you scanning me why would you submit this so early?

We haven't even gotten everyone's results from last night and no one should be submitting their scans until we find out the results of the lynch.
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Old 02-19-2008, 11:03 AM   #611
Lathum
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dodgerchick View Post
dola,

when i come up villager, you guys know who to gun for.

You don't even have a vote on you
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Old 02-19-2008, 11:04 AM   #612
MikeVic
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So Lathum is thinking nfg and DC are wolves right?
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Old 02-19-2008, 11:07 AM   #613
Barkeep49
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Regarding the 50/50 split on Lathum: Yes that's what we'd expect on the aggregate to have things be evenly split. BUT on the individual level this isn't necessarily going to be true. Figuring out who tends to be more accurate is going to be important in the late game so we know who to give weight to in listening to scans, and how much weight to give to them. Not all scans are equal. Our job needs to figure out whose scans are better than others, otherwise we're going to have to just play a traditional game of WW. And in a traditional game of WW, I like the the logic Lathum has presented today against DC. But I'm not resigned yet to that style of play. I think we can do better.
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Old 02-19-2008, 11:07 AM   #614
Passacaglia
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
You don't even have a vote on you

That's funny, considering it was what, a couple hours ago when you said the same thing, and you didn't have a vote on you, either!
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Old 02-19-2008, 11:09 AM   #615
Barkeep49
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To summarize my somewhat meandering point above:
We have two options:
1. Ignore the scan info, play a traditional game of WW based on intuition, post analysis, and voting analysis
2. Try to make sense of the scans. Find out the people who are above average in accuracy (good because we can vote with them), below average in accuracy (good because we do the opposite), and in the middle in accuracy (information we have to ignore).

I'm trying to make 2 a reality, but think there is nothing wrong with playing via style 1.
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Old 02-19-2008, 11:10 AM   #616
Lathum
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Passacaglia View Post
That's funny, considering it was what, a couple hours ago when you said the same thing, and you didn't have a vote on you, either!

except I had 3 people claiming I was a wolf
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Old 02-19-2008, 11:11 AM   #617
MikeVic
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I think we have to use the scan info more as the game progresses, as long as it's fairly obvious who an accurate scanner is.
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Old 02-19-2008, 11:12 AM   #618
Lathum
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Barkeep49 View Post
To summarize my somewhat meandering point above:
We have two options:
1. Ignore the scan info, play a traditional game of WW based on intuition, post analysis, and voting analysis
2. Try to make sense of the scans. Find out the people who are above average in accuracy (good because we can vote with them), below average in accuracy (good because we do the opposite), and in the middle in accuracy (information we have to ignore).

I'm trying to make 2 a reality, but think there is nothing wrong with playing via style 1.

Obviously my opinion is going to be somewhat skewed but I think playing the first way is the smart move until we have a couple of days worth of scans to go by.
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Old 02-19-2008, 11:12 AM   #619
claphamsa
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I think we need to play 1 untill we find more info out...
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Old 02-19-2008, 11:19 AM   #620
Barkeep49
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Clap and lathum: You both suggest that we start with style 1 and move into style 2. How do you propose we do this?
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Old 02-19-2008, 11:22 AM   #621
Lathum
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Barkeep49 View Post
Clap and lathum: You both suggest that we start with style 1 and move into style 2. How do you propose we do this?

Honestly.

I think everyone should scan the same person they scanned tonight.


as for option 1 I laid out my argument why I am suspiscous of DC, the fact I scanned her as a wolf is an added bonus.
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Old 02-19-2008, 11:26 AM   #622
MikeVic
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We can scan the same person as last night, I'm ok with that. But I think we have to lynch someone tonight?
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Old 02-19-2008, 11:26 AM   #623
claphamsa
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I woudl play as normal... and once we had enough scans to say with a reasonable success who was a good seer and who was a crappy seer then we can use their scans.

For example, if we can figure out who the class clown is.. then we know 100% that whatever they say is wrong... so if someone turns up as a student then they are a wolf...
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Old 02-19-2008, 11:32 AM   #624
Lathum
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OK< I pulled up some stuff from yesterday

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
Checking in. As I see no reason to not reveal my night 0 scan it was Clap and he came up good.

If I was a wolf there is no way I reveal this information this early. At the time we had no idea everyone was going to come back scanned as a villager. If I was a wolf I would be concerned someone would have had a succesful scan of me. I would have sat on my scan info to use as a possible defense until later.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
I would like to hear from everyone before I decide but if jheinze won't be here at all today that would obviously make that diffucult.

As a wolf I would have jumped on the lets lynch heinze for being inactive. It's the easiest day 1 vote excuse there is.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
Path-2 questions

Is the tie-breaker public?
Can we vote No Lynch?

I would never suggest no lynch as a wolf, ever. If someone else suggests it I may go along, but as a wolf I would never be the first to breach the topic. Especially since at the time it would have been easy to gt JHeinze lynched.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
It is my understanding that night 0 we were assigned random targets and now we can select our own candidates.

I don't really agree with this. The more someone comes up good in a scan the more likely they are to be a villager. Even if a wolf claimed to have scanned someone and they came up good then that still makes them a villager so why would we kill them.

I think the best course of action is a no lynch tonight and hold off until tomorrow when we have 2 nights of info.

again, I advocate no lynch and use our info from night 1 scans. If I am a wolf I know I am gonna be scanned, why would I suggest this if that was the case.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
As Cronin pointed out I am as big a supporter as there can be about having lynches everyday, I just think this game is the rare exception where it is more prudent to wait an extra day.

Anyone who has played a number of games with me knows I always want a lynch.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
I am fine with being scanned tonight btw.

IIRC I am the first person to come out and say go ahead and scan me.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
I think it would almost be better for everyone to scan a random person tonight, that way the wolves would have no knowledge of what was coming or any time to prepare/ coordinate.

Why would I suggest anything to hurt the wolves if I was one of them?
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Old 02-19-2008, 11:34 AM   #625
Barkeep49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
I think everyone should scan the same person they scanned tonight.
I think this might be a good idea of how to proceed. Not sure if it's better than just lynching you today, but it's enough to make me think it over and so I'm going to take my vote off of you, for now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by claphamsa View Post
For example, if we can figure out who the class clown is.. then we know 100% that whatever they say is wrong... so if someone turns up as a student then they are a wolf...
I don't think it's going to be that easy. Let's assume, for a second, that besides for the teacher's pet and the class clown everyone is perfectly 50/50. There is a 1/16 chance that a player will get a wrong scan each of the first 4 nights. I don't disagree with you in the end, just saying it's going to be hard to figure out who is accurate or not, which only lends credence to the idea of proceeding with style 1 for now.


As mentioned above:
Unvote Lathum
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Old 02-19-2008, 11:38 AM   #626
Lathum
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lets not forget the wolves can easily mess with us if we scan the same people tonight so it is far from perfect.
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Old 02-19-2008, 11:38 AM   #627
Lathum
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I am off to school now. Be back later, hopefully everyone has checked on by then
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Old 02-19-2008, 11:38 AM   #628
Dr. Sak
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeVic View Post
So Lathum is thinking nfg and DC are wolves right?

I am thinking the same thing. Last night I threw my vote on NTN just because I thought there could be a potential wolf in a group where more than 1 scans showed up villager. nfg has been on my radar since the beginning, now DC coming to his aid really has me suspicious of her.

Also add to it that why would a wolf want a No Lynch vote...why would he even suggest it? It doesn't make any sense. It's scary how after the jawing that Lathum and I went through the last game I played in, I am starting to see his ways now.

Since I am torn between two...I am going with my initial gut feeling..

VOTE NFG
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Old 02-19-2008, 11:39 AM   #629
jeheinz72
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I'm pickin' up what Lathum is puttin' down, moreso on voting DC than his innocence really (a lot of those statements can be used for exactly this purpose).

DC just seems to be playing very strangely. First she says wait, then she votes Lathum, then the whole "I won't defend myself and there I've submitted my PM"-thing. Just seems like she was trying to peek through the door and then nail it shut and never have to look back. Strange.

I'd be leaning towards her, then "the field".

I like what MikeVic is saying (his scan of GFR was correct, and now he's scanned a wolf). Something to look at for later.
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Old 02-19-2008, 11:39 AM   #630
path12
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I am around today, but will not be checking in as often because our net traffic is being monitored for a few days and I don't want to risk losing access because of getting on here 15 times a day. Feel free to PM or leave questions in thread and I'll check back in a few hours.
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Last edited by path12 : 02-19-2008 at 11:39 AM.
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Old 02-19-2008, 11:43 AM   #631
oliegirl
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Sorry I'm late...I slept in this morning, and have training until 4:30 today, so although I'll be online, I'll be coming in and out as we get breaks/I get bored/etc...

I scanned CR last night and he came back a student.

As for BK's "options" on how to play the game, I'm playing mostly as a regular game, but am definitely paying attention to the scanning patterns/results. I just think that we need more than 2 nights of scans (esp. as one of those were "involuntary" scans) before I start basing decisions more on scans than on anything else.
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Old 02-19-2008, 11:47 AM   #632
Lorena
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Originally Posted by Dodgerchick View Post
Alright, I submitted my PM and I'm scanning Lathum, should I survive the lynch.

Well that was pretty fuckin' stupid. If I'm alive, then Lathum is dead... DUH! I'm scanning bsak, why? Who the hell knows.
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Old 02-19-2008, 11:48 AM   #633
mauchow
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I'm here for a little bit today. Gotta work later but hopefully will still have access to the forums. My submission for a scan was Dodger Chick but I obviously don't get a scan since I didn't vote yesterday.

So who am I going to be scanning tonight according to that list again?
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Old 02-19-2008, 11:50 AM   #634
mauchow
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I'm scanning Clap according to that list from earlier... if he was a bodyguard, why not protect yourself, especially on night 1. Ah, well.
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Old 02-19-2008, 11:50 AM   #635
MikeVic
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My gut yesterday was nfg, but I don't remember why now. My plans right now are to lynch either nfg or DC. But that can change. Not sure who to scan either, but I'd like someone else to scan clap too. Was I the only one?
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Old 02-19-2008, 11:50 AM   #636
Passacaglia
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I think we can learn a little bit from the scans we have, and we might as well parse this now, just in case everyone scans the same people again, and it gets lost in the shuffle: Neither CR nor Mr. Wednesday are the Teacher's Pet, nor are they the fool. In fact, they're more likely than any of us to have a 50% ratio, which means they're worthless as seers. I'm not going to vote for Mr. Wednesday, since he scanned me.

VOTE CHIEF RUM
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Old 02-19-2008, 11:52 AM   #637
Passacaglia
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeVic View Post
My gut yesterday was nfg, but I don't remember why now. My plans right now are to lynch either nfg or DC. But that can change. Not sure who to scan either, but I'd like someone else to scan clap too. Was I the only one?

If you're interested, you're one of my nominees for the person who should suggest how we vote today.
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Old 02-19-2008, 11:53 AM   #638
Passacaglia
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Damnit I meant scan!!
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Old 02-19-2008, 12:05 PM   #639
MikeVic
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I don't know how we should scan yet. I liked Lathum's plan, but that allows wolves to mess with us too.
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Old 02-19-2008, 12:10 PM   #640
Barkeep49
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Pass how did you deduce that CR and Mr. W and neither teacher's pet or class clown?
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Old 02-19-2008, 12:14 PM   #641
claphamsa
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Barkeep49 View Post
Pass how did you deduce that CR and Mr. W and neither teacher's pet or class clown?
yeah im fooled on this as well
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Old 02-19-2008, 12:15 PM   #642
claphamsa
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my thought would be since they each came up with different reslts for thee same person... but since we all came up sutdent night 0 I just ingnroe it... cuz there is NO way it could have been random.
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Old 02-19-2008, 12:20 PM   #643
Passacaglia
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Barkeep49 View Post
Pass how did you deduce that CR and Mr. W and neither teacher's pet or class clown?

They scanned the same person twice, once getting villager, once getting wolf. They can't be all right or all wrong.
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Old 02-19-2008, 12:22 PM   #644
claphamsa
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I think all the night 0 scans were worht less. the chance that all 20 of us would come back as vilegars is like 0.0000000000003 (esitmate) so I just write off night 0. now if it happens between 1 and 2.....
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Old 02-19-2008, 12:23 PM   #645
Passacaglia
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Originally Posted by claphamsa View Post
my thought would be since they each came up with different reslts for thee same person... but since we all came up sutdent night 0 I just ingnroe it... cuz there is NO way it could have been random.

I'm not saying it was random, but I can't imagine that whatever game mechanic was working N0 would allow the teacher's pet to scan a wolf, yet have him come up as villager. That's insane.
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Old 02-19-2008, 12:24 PM   #646
Lorena
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You're right Lathum, i don't have a vote on me, I just get really frustrated when I add something to the discussion and it's used against me. I really fuckin' hate it, especially when accusations are being made against me. I might as well keep my mouth shut and stay UTR, these people seem to make it pretty far.

I can't remember who asked, but I did say we should hold off on voting until we have more information and my vote on Lathum was instinctual as I was frustrated as shit.
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Old 02-19-2008, 12:29 PM   #647
claphamsa
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Originally Posted by Passacaglia View Post
I'm not saying it was random, but I can't imagine that whatever game mechanic was working N0 would allow the teacher's pet to scan a wolf, yet have him come up as villager. That's insane.
then how do you explain all 20 of us beign students? I think its just worth ignorning.....
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Old 02-19-2008, 12:30 PM   #648
Passacaglia
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then how do you explain all 20 of us beign students? I think its just worth ignorning.....

The non-random mechanism is likely affecting who we scan, not the outcome of the scan.
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Old 02-19-2008, 12:30 PM   #649
Passacaglia
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then how do you explain all 20 of us beign students? I think its just worth ignorning.....

The non-random mechanism is likely affecting who we scan, not the outcome of the scan.
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Old 02-19-2008, 12:32 PM   #650
jeheinz72
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You're right Lathum, i don't have a vote on me, I just get really frustrated when I add something to the discussion and it's used against me. I really fuckin' hate it, especially when accusations are being made against me. I might as well keep my mouth shut and stay UTR, these people seem to make it pretty far.

I can't remember who asked, but I did say we should hold off on voting until we have more information and my vote on Lathum was instinctual as I was frustrated as shit.

I get ya, but that's WW yo.
Think of it as being permanently Mirandized but without the attorney.
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