Werewolf LXXII: Chess (Checkmate!)

[jeheinz72]

If we reveal though aren't we essentially revealing our piece? That seems dangerous.

[path12]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

If we reveal though aren't we essentially revealing our piece? That seems dangerous.

Hence the infinitestimal chance. Though could you reveal things around you without giving that away? I kind of doubt it, but at least the pieces who had a range of more than one square could I guess.

[mccollins]

Sorry guys, but asking for that type of info seems very wolfy to me.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Path, I just pinged you in the GD

Hey, that tickles! Knock it off.

[path12]

Originally Posted by mccollins

Sorry guys, but asking for that type of info seems very wolfy to me.

Who asked? I'm just speculating.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by mccollins

Sorry guys, but asking for that type of info seems very wolfy to me.

Agreed. I think if we did that we'd be playing right into the wolves. We're down 1 knight as is.

I'd say as far as losing pieces on the board, the less we can lose to the wolves in that manner the better. I mean sure, some people will die via the board, but that's expected in the Black vs White end of the game. I just don't want some opportunistic wolf being able to add to that total.

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by path12

Who asked? I'm just speculating.

Don't get defensive, I'm just saying.

I'm not sure how white or black will win unless more things are revealed, but I figure that will come with time.

[st.cronin]

How do the wolves benefit from knowing the board? I don't think they need to know where a player is to kill him, do they?

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

How do the wolves benefit from knowing the board? I don't think they need to know where a player is to kill him, do they?

Thinking through it, it seems the only way for us to patchwork a board together would be to reveal our piece types.

And it seems like most people don't want to reveal that yet.

[jeheinz72]

I figure the wolves likely know a big chunk of the board, I don't think we want to hand them the name that goes with the pieces just yet.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

I figure the wolves likely know a big chunk of the board, I don't think we want to hand them the name that goes with the pieces just yet.

This makes sense. But anyway, I wasn't really asking whether I should reveal my board knowledge, I was more curious if anybody had ideas on what to do with it, because I'm pretty much stumped.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

This makes sense. But anyway, I wasn't really asking whether I should reveal my board knowledge, I was more curious if anybody had ideas on what to do with it, because I'm pretty much stumped.

Yeah, mine certainly doesn't paint much of a picture. I certainly don't know enough about chess to predict moves either.

For the record, I think sharing board knowledge is going to come into play at some point. I just don't think we're there yet. I mean opening moves in Chess are somewhat standard anyhow, I'd imagine they are even moreso here given the pieces are essentially moving independently of each other. Heck, Queens, Bishops and Rooks could still be "locked in" depending on pawn movement.

I'd like to see us have another fruitful day or two like today, tilting the game a touch more to Black vs White, before we go there. I think it'll make it into more of a chess game and less of us will have incentive to lie.

[path12]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

I mean opening moves in Chess are somewhat standard anyhow.

Yeah, but opening moves usually only have one piece moving rather than 20. I think that will throw a wrench in optimal chess strategy.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by path12

Yeah, but opening moves usually only have one piece moving rather than 20. I think that will throw a wrench in optimal chess strategy.

That's exactly my point. There is a coordination to them that we certainly don't have here I'd bet.

[The Jackal]

Well done KWhit! FWIW, I did try to scan hoops, and got no return on him.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by path12

I've never forgotten vouching for Anxiety as my brother and him being a wolf. Possible that wolves are paired, but logic tells me they weren't.

Yup, so I look for it in my partners too.

[oliegirl]

I doubt that wolves are paired with wolves, that just seems that it would put the wolves at a disadvantage (which I'm all for), but I don't see Pass working that sort of dynamic into the game.

[ntndeacon]

well at least 2 folks know their color now.

[st.cronin]

VOTE NEON CHAOS

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

well at least 2 folks know their color now.

Six folks. All rooks and knights know their colors now.

[ntndeacon]

of course Anxiety. I can't count. lol

[mccollins]

Do the Kings and Queens also know their colors? I've re-read the rules and I still can't tell.

Looks like the Bishops should know their colors soon if not already?

[path12]

Originally Posted by Rules

However, only the Bishops, Kings, and Queens will know what color they are. Rooks, Knights, and Pawns will be told they're White, and the board will appear to them as if they're White, regardless of what color they really are.

Looks like the Bishops, Kings and Queens know their true color.

[mccollins]

Thanks, I only re-read the parts about the King & the Queen.

So add to that the Knights and Rooks now know their colors and the whole back row now knows their colors. Shouldn't be long before the pawns figure out their colors.

[KWhit]

My theory is that there is a white rook who is a wolf. This would be to balance out the black rook wolf.

So I think the white bishops should take a look at the rooks and find out who they are player wise. At some point in the future we may need that information revealed so that the knights can view those players to see if they're wolves.

I'm not advocating that the bishops reveal the names yet, but the bishops should view them now while they're close by.

Does that make sense?

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by KWhit

My theory is that there is a white rook who is a wolf. This would be to balance out the black rook wolf.

So I think the white bishops should take a look at the rooks and find out who they are player wise. At some point in the future we may need that information revealed so that the knights can view those players to see if they're wolves.

I'm not advocating that the bishops reveal the names yet, but the bishops should view them now while they're close by.

Does that make sense?

"While they're close by"?

From my reading of the rules, Bishops scan solely by name with no regard to proximity. Proximity is a constraint on the Knights' scanning ability.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by mccollins

"While they're close by"?

From my reading of the rules, Bishops scan solely by name with no regard to proximity. Proximity is a constraint on the Knights' scanning ability.

Ah. I need to re-read that piece description then.

[KWhit]

I had the Bishop role all wrong in my head:

Bishop
You have studied long and hard to learn the true nature of evil. You may choose to examine one person each turn, and find out if they are on the same team as you. On the board, you may move as many spaces as you like, in any diagonal direction. You can see up to two spaces away from you. You may communicate via PM with the other Bishop of your color.

So there's not a role that can match a player with their piece on the board.

[oliegirl]

I'm off to watch DWTS and then off to bed...I'll see everyone in the morning - hopefully

[hoopsguy]

Thank you all for making Day 2 such an exciting read so far. This is great.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Actually Chief Rum managed it in the Rome game with about 20 people still alive. Unfortunately it played right into the hands of the wolves.

Oh, yeah, you're on the list.

[Sonic Youth]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Kings can't be lynched or night-killed, so there really is little danger in them coming out, they have to be mated on the board.

The only reason for them not to come out at the moment is that it would give the colours an idea where they would be once they find out who the King is. It also means that that colour can then target every other player in the point for elimination too, to make things easier in mating.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Thank you all for making Day 2 such an exciting read so far. This is great.

Good Lord, I haven't even gotten to the Day One lynch. Is it going to take me forever to comb the roller coaster posts from today's results?

Heh, these midday deadline games are killer.

I couldn't have made a less impression on the board yesterday, what wiuth my time constraints, so I was really blocked in trying to help out with analysis or getting a good view of the situation. I am going to have to cram in more analysis tonight before I disappear, maybe double or triple my post count.

[Sonic Youth]

Is it as odd to you as it is to me, that of all the white pieces targetted, that the Knight was the one taken down? Does that feel specific to you like it does to me?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Think of it as a soft COT, pending further info. Do you have a specific reason to distrust one of those players?

I can't speak for the others, but I got a bad vibe off of mccollins hunt of KWhit. It felt like an overt attempt to drum up KWhit as a target, beyond what his actions called for. I also agree that a vote for hoospguy, especially when he seemed in the clear at deadline, is not as compelling a reason to put someone in the COT at this point.

Right now, I only trust KWhit and myself, and I don't think my partner is a wolf either (although that's vertainly not proven).

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by KWhit

My theory is that there is a white rook who is a wolf. This would be to balance out the black rook wolf.

So I think the white bishops should take a look at the rooks and find out who they are player wise. At some point in the future we may need that information revealed so that the knights can view those players to see if they're wolves.

I'm not advocating that the bishops reveal the names yet, but the bishops should view them now while they're close by.

Does that make sense?

There seems to be a lot of sentiment toward assuming there is some symmetry to placement of the wolves. IMO, there are only a few things I would take as likely regarding the wolf roles: 1. There are the same number on each team for balance purposes, so there are an even number; 2. Almost has to be 4, because 2 is too small and 6 is too large

Everything else is a leap, including making any assumptions that pairs are wolf mates or that there is "piece" balance in the wolf assignments. I believe they were randomly selected, and the only given non-wolves are the kings.

If we follow this logic, BTW, we do now have only one wolf on the black team. At this point, I don't think that makes an appreciable difference in the odds, but something to think about later (especially if you're a knight and can scan some people).

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Sonic Youth

Is it as odd to you as it is to me, that of all the white pieces targetted, that the Knight was the one taken down? Does that feel specific to you like it does to me?

No. I thnk Barkeep was targeted, not the Knight. The wolves just got lucky. They went for one of the top players not under suspicion (of course, hoops was the only top top player by most estimation under suspicion, and he was a wolf, so they were free to choose any other non-wolf top player).

If you go off of Anxiety's WW player ranking, it was Lathum or BK, and Lathum always is more likely to get lynched with his style of play. So going for BK makes sense.

Of course, I don't think anyone would have batted an eye if the wolves had a different idea of who was dangerous and killed me or cronin or Anxiety off, or any other of a number of strong players in this game.

[Chief Rum]

Actually, wait a sec. Pet theory which may prove useful.

What is the chance a knight is a wolf? Just on sheer numbers. Let's say we assume four wolves (two per side), random piece selection, and take out the kings. So there is a 22% (2 wolves/9 each side) chance of any given player on a side being a wolf. And with two knights, each role has the same 22% chance of the wolf role picking out a knight. First time you role for wolf, 22% chance that wolf is a knight, or 78% chance he is not. Let's say a knight doesn't get hit. Now there is a 2 in 8 (25% chance) of hitting a knight the second time around, removing the player who is already a wolf. That is a 75% chance of wolf =! a knight. Our chance of not having a knight be a wolf on any side is (78%) times (75%), which is (7/9) * (3/4) = (21/36), down to 7/12, or 58.3% chance that a side does not have a wolf knight.

But my theory only needs one wolf knight to work. Each side has a 58.3% chance of NOT having a wolf knight. But the chance neither side has a wolf knight? 58.3% * 58.3% = (7/12) * (7/12) = (49/144) = 34%.

Guys, there is only a 34% chance that we don't have a wolf knight on this board from the get go. Which means we likely DO have a wolf knight.

Okay, let's say you're this wolf knight. Likely enough, your partner knight is not a wolf. In fact, you will know this (you know who the wolves are), so we will assume the partner knight is not a wolf. And you know his name. And you know knights are about as close to a seer as this game has. People, the wolves were likely handed the name of a seer from the start of this game.

That name was Barkeep, and he was betrayed by partner, the other white knight.

And we know one other knight already--The Jackal. He may or may not be the partner knight. But the point is, two other people already know if he is or not--the other knights still alive. So I say, vote for The Jackal. His partner should reveal and come to his defense if The Jackal was not BK's partner. And if he was, the other two knights should both reveal and reveal him for who he is (rooks, be prepared to protect our good knights).

Revealing those knights is risky, but with the benefit of getting another wolf this early in the game? I say it's worth a shot, especially with three remaining bodyguards.

Not going to say there isn't risk (34% chance of a wolf knight is hardly a shoo in), and if The Jackal is not Barkeep's partner, revealing yourself as The Jackal's partner will not reveal BK's actual partner--we will just know it was the other white knight (and should try to kill him in the chess game).

But I thought I would throw this theory out there and let you guys hash it out while I am at work (wish I could be around, but I won't be able to).

VOTE THE JACKAL

[Narcizo]

Nice one KWhit. You're certainly on a roll at the moment. I think an analysis of the vote changes yesterday may be pretty informative - although not overly complimentary to me.

Anyway, I agree that it is a bit suspicious how the wolves managed to target a knight on the first day when BK certainly didn't seem to be giving out any vibes as a knght (that I could detect, anyway). My only doubts are whether hoops would be so obvious to target the partner of a wolf knight. Seems a bit too overt and obvious (as I commented at the time in a throwaway statement).

The problem with pushing Jackal and relying on his partner to back him up is that if he is the black knight then we're forcing another knight to out themselves. I'm wondering if the Jackal shouldn't just reveal his colour. If he's white then we know he isn't going to have a partner and he fits Chief's profile - if he claims he's black and there's no refutation then we know to look elsewhere. If he claims he's black and there is a refutation then we know he (or the other person) is lying and we lynch him. On the other hand I think it would be very sloppy play by the wolves to kill Jackal's partner at this stage if he was a wolf as it's making him look very suspicious.

I don't know. As has been pointed out Pass' scheme to hide colours to prevent mass reveals seems not to have worked, as the entire back row (at least) know what colour they are - and the pawns will probably get a good idea soon (if they haven't already worked it out).

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Nice one KWhit. You're certainly on a roll at the moment. I think an analysis of the vote changes yesterday may be pretty informative - although not overly complimentary to me.

Anyway, I agree that it is a bit suspicious how the wolves managed to target a knight on the first day when BK certainly didn't seem to be giving out any vibes as a knght (that I could detect, anyway). My only doubts are whether hoops would be so obvious to target the partner of a wolf knight. Seems a bit too overt and obvious (as I commented at the time in a throwaway statement).

The problem with pushing Jackal and relying on his partner to back him up is that if he is the black knight then we're forcing another knight to out themselves. I'm wondering if the Jackal shouldn't just reveal his colour. If he's white then we know he isn't going to have a partner and he fits Chief's profile - if he claims he's black and there's no refutation then we know to look elsewhere. If he claims he's black and there is a refutation then we know he (or the other person) is lying and we lynch him. On the other hand I think it would be very sloppy play by the wolves to kill Jackal's partner at this stage if he was a wolf as it's making him look very suspicious.

I don't know. As has been pointed out Pass' scheme to hide colours to prevent mass reveals seems not to have worked, as the entire back row (at least) know what colour they are - and the pawns will probably get a good idea soon (if they haven't already worked it out).

Thanks, Narcizo. Excellent idea to take my theory a step further. Having The Jackal announce his color would certainly lessen the risk of this plan.

I, too, agree it is unlikely The Jackal was BK's partner because that would seem to be too up front. But it's something we can rule out now (or we get a wolf, no lose there).

[Neon_Chaos]

That's a bit of a stretch, CR, even for me.

I echo Narcizo's thoughts that it would probably be poor play for the Wolves to do so, as it would cause even more suspicion.

[Narcizo]

I don't have time for an analysis but here's the donkey work. I'm not going to be around much I'm afraid. Now these votes should be taken with a pinch of salt because of the pawns, but they still indicate trends and how people were thinking.

jeheinz votes Qwikshot (159)
path votes No Lynch (161) 1-1
Anxiety votes No Lynch (169) 2-1
KWhit votes No Lynch (170) 3-1
Barkeep votes No Lynch (175) 4-1
Mccollins votes hoopsguy (177) 4-1-1
claphamsa votes Jackal (179) 4-1-1-1
hoopsguy votes mccollins (180) 4-1-1-1-1
Jackal votes claphamsa (185) 4-1-1-1-1-1
Anxiety unvotes No Lynch, votes Jackal (191) 3-2-1-1-1-1
PurdueBrad votes hoopsguy (193) 3-2-2-1-1-1
Render votes hoopsguy (197) 3-3-2-1-1-1 (ties hoops up with no lynch)
Jackal unvote clap, vote No Lynch (217) 4-3-2-1-1 (no lynch one up on hoops)
Lathum votes No Lynch (225) 5-3-2-1-1 (No Lynch up by two over hoops, three on Jackal)
NTNDeacon votes KWhit (226) 5-3-2-1-1-1
Narcizo votes Jackal (232) 5-3-3-1-1-1 (Ties Jackal with Hoops, two after no lynch)
Chief Rum votes Barkeep (237) 5-3-3-1-1-1-1
Anxiety unvotes Jackal, votes RendeR (238) 5-3-2-1-1-1-1-1 (Leaves hoops in second place)
Neon votes No Lynch (245) 6-3-2-1-1-1-1-1 (No Lynch now three ahead)
Sonic votes No Lynch (253) 7-3-2-1-1-1-1-1 (No Lynch four in the lead)
st.cronin votes KWhit (273) 7-3-2-2-1-1-1-1 (KWhit ties with Jackal in third place)
KWhit unvotes No Lynch, votes Jackal (275) 6-3-3-2-1-1-1-1 (Ties Jackal with hoops in second place)
Lathum unvotes No Lynch, votes Jackal (277) 5-4-3-2-1-1-1-1 (Pushes Jackal into second place, one behind no lynch, one ahead of hoops)
Sonic Youth unvotes No Lynch, votes hoops (286) 4-4-4-2-1-1-1-1 (Makes three way tie between Jackal, hoops and No Lynch)
Neon unvotes No Lynch, votes hoops (289) 5-4-3-2-1-1-1-1 (Pushes hoops into the lead, No Lynch down to third)
Hoops unvotes mccollins, votes Jackal (290) 5-5-3-2-1-1-1 (Ties Jackal with hoops)
Path unvotes NO Lynch, votes Qwikshot (300) 5-5-2-2-2-1-1 (Ties Qwik with No Lynch and KWhit, three off the lead)
KWhit unvotes Jackal, votes Qwikshot (307) 5-4-3-2-2-1-1 (Put hoops in lead, moves Qwikshot to third)
Barkeep unvotes No Lynch, votes Qwikshot (314) 5-4-4-2-1-1-1 (Hoops-Jackal-Qwikshot-KWhit-No Lynch-Bark-Render)
Jackal unvotes No Lynch (333) 5-4-4-2-1-1
Jackal votes Qwikshot (335) 5-5-4-2-1-1 Tie Qwik with hoops, one above Jackal
Qwik shows up
Jackal unvotes Qwik (355) 5-4-4-2-1-1 Hoops in the lead again
Jeheinz unvotes Qwik (360) 5-4-3-2-1-1
oliegirl votes Jackal (374) 5-5-3-2-1-1
Path unvotes Qwik, votes No Lynch (386) 5-5-2-2-1-1-1 Qwik sinking out of consideration
Jackal votes hoops (387) 6-5-2-2-1-1-1 Hoops in the lead Jackal claims self-preservation
Hoops reveals as rook 402
KWhit unvotes Qwik, votes Jackal (405) 6-6-2-1-1-1-1 pushes Jackal into tie with Hoops
Qwik votes Jackal (411) 7-6-2-1-1-1-1 pushes Jackal ahead of hoops
heinz votes KWhit (413) 7-6-3-1-1-1-1 KWhit is four off Jackal, three off of hoops
Neon unvotes hoops, votes Jackal (415) 8-5-3-1-1-1-1 Jackal now three in the lead
heinz unvotes KWhit, votes Jackal (419) 9-5-2-1-1-1-1 Jackal now four in the lead
PurdueBrad unvotes Hoops, votes st.cronin (426) 9-4-2-1-1-1-1-1 Jackal five in the lead
Jackal unvotes hoops (430) 9-3-2-1-1-1-1-1 Jackal six in the lead
Jackal reveals as knight (430)
Jackal votes no lynch (434) 9-3-2-2-1-1-1-1
Neon unvotes Jackal, votes No Lynch (446) 8-3-3-2-1-1-1-1 ties No Lynch up with Hoops on three, five off of Jackal
Qwik unvotes Jackal, votes No Lynch (451) 7-4-3-2-1-1-1-1 NO Lynch three off of Jackal
Narcizo unvotes Jackal, votes KWhit (467) 6-4-3-3-1-1-1-1 Jackal-No Lynch-Hoops-KWhit
Render unvotes hoops, votes KWhit (481) 6-4-4-2-1-1-1-1 Ties Kwhit up with No Lynch)
Heinz unvotes Jackal votes KWhit (492) 5-5-4-2-1-1-1-1 Ties Kwhit with Jackal in the lead
Clap unvotes Jackal, votes KWhit (495) 6-4-4-2-1-1-1-1 Puts KWhit two into the lead, ahead of Jackal and No Lynch
Lathum unvotes Jackal, votes st.cronin (505) 6-4-3-2-2-1-1-1
Render unvotes KWhit, votes Jackal (512) 5-4-4-2-2-1-1-1 KWhit one ahead of Jackal and No Lynch
Barkeep unvotes Qwik, votes KWhit (531) 6-4-4-2-2-1-1 KWhit two up on Jackal and No Lynch
KWhit unvotes Jackal, votes Hoops (536) 6-4-3-3-2-1-1

If Jackal is bad then the evidence looks pretty damning against at least one of clap, heinz and myself (and Barkeep but we know he was a villager). That's about all I've got time to say at the moment.

[Neon_Chaos]

Hmmm.

Since hoops was a wolf, and he had a PM partner who was also a Rook, is it safe to assume that that if that person is a villager, then the Wolves already know who he is (by virtue of hoops telling them).

[Narcizo]

I have KWhit and McCollins in my CoT, with, almost, no doubt. I'm not 100% sold on Sonic but I'm leaning towards trusting him as well.

I think we probably have a wolf in the No Lynchers, one in the KWhit voters and one amongst the rest. If Jackal isn't a wolf then we had what winded up looking a fairly safe day for the wolfies at the end, KWhit switching at the end and having 4 votes (presumably) caught them off guard.

I'm also inclined to think that there's either no wolf controlling pawns or that person wasn't around at deadline. I think that they would have their vote on KWhit or Jackal (presuming he's not a wolf) at the end to try and make sure Hoops was safe. But that's a bit more of leap.

No more time. Again.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I think we probably have a wolf in the No Lynchers, one in the KWhit voters and one amongst the rest. If Jackal isn't a wolf then we had what winded up looking a fairly safe day for the wolfies at the end, KWhit switching at the end and having 4 votes (presumably) caught them off guard.

So they would probably be trying to spread their vote around.

[The Jackal]

I'll be honest, no reason not to be. BK was my partner, I'm the other white knight. We knew he was at risk because he'd always be a prime wolf target, but we'd hoped they would turn elsewhere. I have no idea where to go with my vote today.

[KWhit]

For the record, I think it's a really bad idea to have another Knight come forward at this point.

[The Jackal]

I'm sure the wolves are hoping you lynch me, because I'm a safe guard each night for the rooks without any other pieces being revealed. I'll take suggestions on who to scan tonight if you like; there are a fair number of pieces around me.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by KWhit

For the record, I think it's a really bad idea to have another Knight come forward at this point.

Agreed. But the other two knights will know I'm not lying, at least.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Agreed. But the other two knights will know I'm not lying, at least.

Not necessarily.

You could still be lying if you were a wolf and the other white knight is also a wolf. You'd know that he wouldn't contradict your statement.

I'm not saying you are - just making sure people are aware of the possibility.