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Old 07-22-2009, 10:57 PM   #601
PurdueBrad
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I would've moved it to protect EF. I'm not familiar with EF pulling a fake seer reveal from any other game so I would've given him the benefit of the doubt and obviously would've done so when he said I was good, well, because I am.
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Old 07-22-2009, 10:59 PM   #602
Lathum
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Originally Posted by PurdueBrad View Post
I would've moved it to protect EF. I'm not familiar with EF pulling a fake seer reveal from any other game so I would've given him the benefit of the doubt and obviously would've done so when he said I was good, well, because I am.

why would this hold any water, obviously the wolves knoew who is good.
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Old 07-22-2009, 11:01 PM   #603
PurdueBrad
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Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
why would this hold any water, obviously the wolves knoew who is good.

It would've held enough water for me to give him the benefit of the doubt, as I said before, not surefire trust. But I would've given him a day, let the real seer, if there is one, get a scan in and reveal. If there were no reveal, then I would've lynched EF that day instead of immediately.
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Old 07-22-2009, 11:02 PM   #604
hoopsguy
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PB, him naming you as good didn't help him in my book.

1 - bad voting record
2 - only claiming one view as seer because of being slutted
3 - claiming another role before claiming seer
4 - only view he had was on the other guy who was slutted besides him
5 - seer reveal was very late in the day, left himself exposed if BG isn't around during short turn-around between day/night phases

That just seemed (and still seems) like quite a number of coincidences to have all come into play at the same time. Obviously he was telling the truth, but very poor luck for both him and the village. It completely sounded like crap to me.
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Old 07-22-2009, 11:04 PM   #605
PurdueBrad
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Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
PB, him naming you as good didn't help him in my book.

1 - bad voting record
2 - only claiming one view as seer because of being slutted
3 - claiming another role before claiming seer
4 - only view he had was on the other guy who was slutted besides him
5 - seer reveal was very late in the day, left himself exposed if BG isn't around during short turn-around between day/night phases

That just seemed (and still seems) like quite a number of coincidences to have all come into play at the same time. Obviously he was telling the truth, but very poor luck for both him and the village. It completely sounded like crap to me.

All the above are true, but as we've said a lot lately, the best voting records tend to go to wolves rather than villagers. But again, I would've given him till the next day, with what I consider to be little risk.
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Old 07-22-2009, 11:05 PM   #606
PurdueBrad
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But anyway, hindsight is 20/20. My vote tomorrow will definitely go for somebody that voted to lynch EF.
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Old 07-22-2009, 11:22 PM   #607
JAG
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I have a candidate to suggest (if anyone cares), but I'm going to hold off until the night phase is done.
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Old 07-22-2009, 11:25 PM   #608
PurdueBrad
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JAG, despite my vote on you today, I will be interested in hearing your candidate.
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Old 07-22-2009, 11:28 PM   #609
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But anyway, hindsight is 20/20. My vote tomorrow will definitely go for somebody that voted to lynch EF.

I absolutely agree with this.
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Old 07-22-2009, 11:42 PM   #610
JetsIn06
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Originally Posted by PurdueBrad View Post
But anyway, hindsight is 20/20. My vote tomorrow will definitely go for somebody that voted to lynch EF.

I definitely agree with this, even though I was one of the people who voted for EF. My vote was based on some suspicions I had about the way he was posting and name-dropping.

Toss in the double-reveal, and I was very suspicious.

However, it seems extremely likely that someone who voted for EF is a wolf.
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Old 07-23-2009, 01:18 AM   #611
MartinD
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Sorry for misreading the situation, guys - based on the information I had to work with when I voted, I honestly thought that EagleFan was a more likely wolf than ntndeacon.

This game really screws with your mind sometimes...
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Old 07-23-2009, 01:33 AM   #612
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Results in a sec
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Old 07-23-2009, 01:35 AM   #613
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The night passes uneventfully and you awaken, not fully rested, but better than you had expected. A new energy refreshens you and the morning breakfast is almost palatable.

You arrive at the school and give a fake hello to your old friends before meeting as a groupo at the furnace to see who is missing. it's nearly classtime and a few are missing. One by one they straggle in but someone is still missing.

Where is Vera Cafincelli?

You immediately enter the furnace room and see her backpack in the corner, rooted out, a a sign of her death.

Vera Cafincelli (Lathum) was a High Schooler.

Chapter 6 has ended. Chapter 7 has begun and ends at 10:00 pm
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Old 07-23-2009, 01:38 AM   #614
Lathum
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damn
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Old 07-23-2009, 06:09 AM   #615
JAG
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Quote:
Day 1:

Danny - 7 (nfg 171, path 172, PB 194, henry296 221, TheNorm 234, Pass 238, Lathum 248)
Pass - 5 (clap 111, hoops 122, EF 202, Jackal 241, JAG 243)
JAG - 2 (Jets 121, MartinD 215)
lerriuqs - 1 (ntn 159)
The Jackal - 1 (Schmidty 217)

no vote: danny, lerriuqs


Day Two:

Passacaglia - 7 (Eaglefan 305, JetsIn06 332, lerriuqs 341, PB 346, path12 365, JAG 373, hoops 380)
hoopsguy - 6 (Passacaglia 340, MartinD 344, Jackal 353, clap 354, nfg22 355, Schmidty 367, Lathum 390)

No vote - ntn, TheNorm

Day Three:

As of 519:

ntn 4 - clap (459), Jackal (475), EF (526), TheNorm (529)
JAG 2 - PB (446), ntn (517)
EF 7 - hoops (450), Jets (464), JAG (471), lerriuqs (476), MartinD (497), Lathum (543), Schmidty (374)
hoops 1 - nfg (473)

Ok, first putting this up for the sake of completion.
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Old 07-23-2009, 07:21 AM   #616
JAG
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Alright, here's what I've got for now. The key is oddly the D2 voting for me. I still find it unlikely there isn't a wolf in the original Pass voting, but I'm leaning towards a higher percentage play at this point.

If hoops is a wolf, Jets and lerriuqs would be primary suspects (I'm excepting myself of course), with ntn and TheNorm also not looking great.

But, if hoops is a villager, I don't find it likely that none of the wolves would've voted for Pass D2. That would still make Jets and lerriuqs primary suspects in my eyes. Since they would be suspects either way, to me that means the highest percentage play is going after one of them (or even better both). Looking back at D1, both had throwaway votes and gave out of game reasons for them so there's not much I can say there. Both also voted for EF yesterday.

I don't have a read one way or another who is more likely, both have been mostly quiet, so I'm just picking one out of a hat.

VOTE lerriuqs
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Old 07-23-2009, 07:21 AM   #617
hoopsguy
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JAG, glad you posted that because it is where I was going to look today as well.

Day 1 - only two people that voted for Danny are still alive. Given three more wolves, what are the odds that no wolves voted for Danny, even as their shadow wolf?

I think there are a couple of possible arguments to be made:
1.) NFG would not have put in the first vote on Danny - he is less likely to be a wolf
2.) That leaves you with TheNorm, who probably would have had other voting options available to him. Still, I think he is a better argument than NFG if you buy into the idea that the wolves would have had at least one vote on the letting vote getter on Day 1.
3.) If you don't think that the Blakekin would have had anyone on Danny, then you should be relentlessly voting for the people on Pass that day. I know that I'm not possessed, so that leaves you with Clap, Jackal, and JAG as the best options for that vote.

Even if you think that the wolves would have had one vote on Danny (but not two) there is still a very high likelihood of 1+ wolf vote on Pass from Day 1. So my strong inclination is to vote there.

The Day 3 vote could be significant but I don't know what to make of it jsut yet. The only note that I do have is that the three remaining people alive who voted NTN are all suspects based on my Day 1 vote review. That seems to make it a little less likely, in my mind, that NTN is a wolf. But I think there is more left to learn here than there is with Day 1, which is slowly but surely coming into focus.

I recognize that I'm going to be a very serious candidate today, so for now I'll let others drive some of the discussion before putting out my vote. I'm basically looking for people to trust right now because that list is obviously very short.
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Old 07-23-2009, 07:25 AM   #618
hoopsguy
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JAG, just read your post. The only problem I have is that Day 2 doesn't feel as open to me as Day 1. I've enjoyed your analysis so far this game, which makes me more likely to give you a pass for another day - barring a compelling argument being presented that makes you a clearly better candidate than the others.

But, that fact has not moved you (in my eyes) to a spot where I'm saying that there are only two non-cleared on Pass. So that is not as compelling a percentage play for me as the ones that I highlighted from Day 1.

Analyzing voting records - frustrating in the short term, usually fruitful in the long term.
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Old 07-23-2009, 07:27 AM   #619
hoopsguy
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Also, I was slutted last night. Which is just fine with me as they did not stop me from doing anything that would have been pro-village.
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Old 07-23-2009, 07:28 AM   #620
Poli
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RRRRRRRRRRRRRRIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIINNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNG!
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Old 07-23-2009, 07:47 AM   #621
JAG
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Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
JAG, just read your post. The only problem I have is that Day 2 doesn't feel as open to me as Day 1. I've enjoyed your analysis so far this game, which makes me more likely to give you a pass for another day - barring a compelling argument being presented that makes you a clearly better candidate than the others.

But, that fact has not moved you (in my eyes) to a spot where I'm saying that there are only two non-cleared on Pass. So that is not as compelling a percentage play for me as the ones that I highlighted from Day 1.

Analyzing voting records - frustrating in the short term, usually fruitful in the long term.

From your perspective I understand why it might not be as good a percentage play because you'd have to include me in the list of suspects along with Jets and lerriuqs, but if you put yourself in my shoes as a villager (and thus not knowing whether or not you're a wolf and they are potentially looking to protect you), I think you would probably come up with the same outcome. For me, voting off D1 isn't as clear, but I do agree with what you're saying for the majority of people that are left.
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Old 07-23-2009, 08:18 AM   #622
JAG
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Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
I recognize that I'm going to be a very serious candidate today, so for now I'll let others drive some of the discussion before putting out my vote. I'm basically looking for people to trust right now because that list is obviously very short.

I'm going to second this as well. I'd especially like to hear from PB since he is the only one fully cleared.
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Old 07-23-2009, 08:36 AM   #623
claphamsa
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Kinda wish I was up last ngiht, I found hoops dismissal of Efs reveal as kinda off. yes it was a bad play, but shit happens!

vote hoops
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Old 07-23-2009, 08:36 AM   #624
claphamsa
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I can be persuaded to move, but hey weve already lost the sleuth and JR sleuth! so....
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Old 07-23-2009, 09:14 AM   #625
PurdueBrad
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I'm going to second this as well. I'd especially like to hear from PB since he is the only one fully cleared.

Caught up, running out for a little bit, but will most my thoughts mid-morning.
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Old 07-23-2009, 10:42 AM   #626
claphamsa
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this is a very vibrant day!
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Old 07-23-2009, 10:44 AM   #627
Danny
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I know what we need to kick things up a notch!!!
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Old 07-23-2009, 10:44 AM   #628
Danny
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When I wake up in the morning
And the alarm gives out a warning
And I don't think I ever make it on time
By the time I grab my books
And I give myself a look
I'm at the corner just in time to see the bus fly by
It's alright 'coz I'm saved by the bell
If the teacher pops a test
I know I'm in a mess
And my dog ate all my homework last night
Right alone in my chair
She won't know that I'm there
If I can hand it in tomorrow it will be alright
It's alright 'coz I'm saved by the bell

It's alright 'coz I'm saved by the
It's alright 'coz I'm saved by the

It's alright 'coz I'm saved by the bell

Last edited by Danny : 07-23-2009 at 10:49 AM.
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Old 07-23-2009, 10:45 AM   #629
Danny
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RING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Old 07-23-2009, 10:54 AM   #630
The Jackal
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oh kelly kapowski
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Old 07-23-2009, 11:01 AM   #631
lerriuqs
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JAG View Post
Alright, here's what I've got for now. The key is oddly the D2 voting for me. I still find it unlikely there isn't a wolf in the original Pass voting, but I'm leaning towards a higher percentage play at this point.

If hoops is a wolf, Jets and lerriuqs would be primary suspects (I'm excepting myself of course), with ntn and TheNorm also not looking great.

But, if hoops is a villager, I don't find it likely that none of the wolves would've voted for Pass D2. That would still make Jets and lerriuqs primary suspects in my eyes. Since they would be suspects either way, to me that means the highest percentage play is going after one of them (or even better both). Looking back at D1, both had throwaway votes and gave out of game reasons for them so there's not much I can say there. Both also voted for EF yesterday.

I don't have a read one way or another who is more likely, both have been mostly quiet, so I'm just picking one out of a hat.

VOTE lerriuqs

Um...I didn't have a Day 1 throwaway vote...I couldn't get on in time to vote that day. So are you analyzing? Or simply feeding the wolves?

I voted for Pass and EF - so what? I've seen many villagers that tend to have very poor voting records and wolves that have had some of the best voting records...You're looking at the wrong one if you're looking at me - that you can be sure of.
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Old 07-23-2009, 11:10 AM   #632
Danny
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Originally Posted by The Jackal View Post
oh kelly kapowski

She was my first celebrity crush when I was like 10 years old.
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Old 07-23-2009, 11:22 AM   #633
PurdueBrad
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Alright, so here's where I'm at right now:

I'll start with my perennial favorite, Hoops. He has voted three times to lynch known villagers, albeit once he can claim self-defense, except that he voted for that same person the day before. Hoops was enslutted on the heels of EF (known good) and myself (known good). I'm not necessarily sure that helps him much. Oh, and yeah, if you haven't heard, Hoops and I have been on the same side only three times.

For JAG, basically see above (minus the enslutting and the history).

The Norm, nfg, and Lathum- I have to imagine that at least one wolf voted for Danny on day 1. Lathum got a quick trust grab by making his switch but that also could be a very good wolf play (remember, he is the world's greatest wolf). The best voting record of my five but the best voters are oftentimes wolves. nfg cast the first vote on Danny but his other two votes are for Hoops, an as-of-yet unknown entity. Again, I think sacrificing Danny, an unknowing wolf, isn't a loss to the wolves as he wouldn't have been a ton of help other than simply #'s. The Norm matches simply as another Danny voter, a no vote day 2, and then a vote for an unknown day 3. The Norm is probably at the bottom of my five suspect list.

I'm going with one of the following three: Hoops, JAG, or Lathum.
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Old 07-23-2009, 11:24 AM   #634
PurdueBrad
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Originally Posted by JAG View Post
Ok, first putting this up for the sake of completion.

JAG, in your list, you have Lathum greened as cleared. Has he been cleared in another way other than his vote switch to Danny?
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Old 07-23-2009, 11:34 AM   #635
claphamsa
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PB.... you do realise lathum is dead right?
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Old 07-23-2009, 11:37 AM   #636
Abe Sargent
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Lathum is laughing right now
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Old 07-23-2009, 11:38 AM   #637
Lathum
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Who wants to tell PB?
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Old 07-23-2009, 11:39 AM   #638
Lathum
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Lathum is laughing right now

accurate
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Old 07-23-2009, 11:46 AM   #639
PurdueBrad
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F***, how the hell did Lathum die? Great, just great. Sorry Lathum, you can see how much credit I give you as a wolf.

So Hoops or JAG...
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Old 07-23-2009, 11:47 AM   #640
PurdueBrad
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Guess it helps if I actually, I dunno, read the night action. Hmmm, wish Spike was here, I have a feeling my grades will suffer w/o her.
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Old 07-23-2009, 11:48 AM   #641
PurdueBrad
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Between Hoops and JAG, I do then think that Lathum's death puts a ton of heat on to Hoops. By choosing to kill Lathum, I think the wolves may expect a flock to vote out Hoops. Let me start here, while I mull something else over:

vote JAG
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Old 07-23-2009, 11:50 AM   #642
lerriuqs
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Originally Posted by PurdueBrad View Post
F***, how the hell did Lathum die? Great, just great. Sorry Lathum, you can see how much credit I give you as a wolf.

So Hoops or JAG...

After JAG's "analysis" of my voting record, I'm leaning towards him right now myself...
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Old 07-23-2009, 11:50 AM   #643
lerriuqs
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vote JAG
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Old 07-23-2009, 11:52 AM   #644
nfg22
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So i think its me or norm the:P...
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Old 07-23-2009, 11:55 AM   #645
nfg22
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That was in jest to PB since he thinks one person on danny was a wolf. Me and norm are the only ones left. Honestly, some people trust me more because of that and some trust me less.... If you look at the history it was obviously a D1 throw away vote, At the time I had to leave for work(which I announced) I couldnt have changed things and likely wouldnt have. Danny was just as good as anyone else.
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Old 07-23-2009, 11:55 AM   #646
TheNorm
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oh kelly kapowski

Lisa Turtle > Kelly Kapowski
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Old 07-23-2009, 11:56 AM   #647
Danny
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Originally Posted by TheNorm View Post
Lisa Turtle > Kelly Kapowski

If I was still playing anyone who said this would earn my vote.
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Old 07-23-2009, 11:58 AM   #648
PurdueBrad
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If I was still playing anyone who said this would earn my vote.

Was thinking the same thing.
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Old 07-23-2009, 11:59 AM   #649
TheNorm
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Originally Posted by Danny View Post
If I was still playing anyone who said this would earn my vote.

Don't get me wrong, Kelly was great but something about Lisa just topped her.

As for voting I have no idea since after analyzing how things went leading up to EF's ousting I was going to vote Lathum today.
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Old 07-23-2009, 12:00 PM   #650
nfg22
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Now on to todays vote. I threw out a throw away vote yesterday because I thought both NTN and EF are good. I still think hoops is a wolf and sticking by that. He has been shady in voting. He hasnt argued well for himself if really at all. I think since the vote wasnt focused on him yesterday he kinda went UTR a little. This is my best prospect and I wont vote for someone who I think is good so JAG stays. I really like JAG, not just in RP but he seems legit. His voting record isnt worse than hoops. Im going hoops...

VOTE HOOPSGUY
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