POTUS 2024 - Harris vs Trump - General Election Discussion

[JPhillips]

It's fascinating how in the NY-6 primary both Bowman and Latimore are running ads saying they will work closely with Biden and the other guy won't.

[Edward64]

Big day for Bowman

... and Boebert. I never noticed but got to ask ... are those real?

https://abcnews.go.com/538/15-electi...y?id=111358930

[Ksyrup]

I don't know or care, but if anyone paid for them, surely she would be in the top 2 of Congresswomen you'd expect to have done so. Probably with campaign funds.

[GrantDawg]

Lauren Boebert wanting to abolish the Department of Education is like chlamydia speaking out against the dangers of penicillin

— Liam Nissan™ (@theliamnissan) June 24, 2024

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

It's fascinating how in the NY-6 primary both Bowman and Latimore are running ads saying they will work closely with Biden and the other guy won't.

Most expensive primary in history.

[thesloppy]

Coincidentally, I just read an article from a major news outlet suggesting that Lauren Boebert was "hotboxing meth with Jayson (Boebert) at a man camp"

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

Coincidentally, I just read an article from a major news outlet suggesting that Lauren Boebert was "hotboxing meth with Jayson (Boebert) at a man camp"

The same group that made other allegations that she didn't deny very strongly and the group that had the receipts on Cawthorne. They also claim to have receipts here and if they're willing to go to the atf they probably do.

Targeting GOP for the same thing Hunter Biden waa charged with is kinda funny though.

[NobodyHere]

If the gas prices don't come down by election time Biden ain't winning,

[MJ4H]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

If the gas prices don't come down by election time Biden ain't winning,

They aren't going much lower than they are now, pretty much ever again. Just paid $2.74 yesterday. I'd be shocked to ever see them below 2.50.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

If the gas prices don't come down by election time Biden ain't winning,

He told them to stop being greedy a couple years ago. What more can you ask the leader of the free world to do?

[thesloppy]

Gas has seemingly cost over $4 on the West coast for as long as I can remember....or at least a couple years.

I share the complaints about gas prices, but then I get completely thrown off when I see people complaining about gas that's practically $2 less than the going rate over here.

[MJ4H]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

He told them to stop being greedy a couple years ago. What more can you ask the leader of the free world to do?

Maybe he should run to opec and have them cut production for 2 years again.

[Ksyrup]

I'm not going to complain too much about gas considering it's been relatively stable for a couple of years and we pay so much less than other places.

HOWEVER, I am completely pissed that gas stations are now charging $1 to $1.50 more a gallon than regular for premium all of a sudden. Way back when, it used to be a simple $.10 jump from regular to mid to premium. Then it jumped up to $.50 more for premium. Recently, it went to about $.70-75 more. Now, I'm paying at least a dollar and sometimes way more for premium above the regular price, and what sucks about it is that gas stations rarely advertise the premium price anymore, so I'm having to guess at how much over regular a particular station charges as I pull in.

[Edward64]

Gasbuddy.com

Premium is about 60 cents more than regular around my parts. Costco premium is about 10 cents cheaper.

[Ksyrup]

Just checked around here. I see a couple at 7o cents above regular but most at 95 cents or a dollar over regular. And the "cheapest" regular which is right off the highway coming home from work is $1.25 more for premium. That was the one that burned me the other day because I thought I'd get a good deal on premium because regular was so much cheaper, but.... no.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

... and Boebert. I never noticed but got to ask ... are those real?

And Boebert is projected to win it by a comfortable margin. I guess moving to another district was a smart move.



Edit: … and down goes Bowman

[Ryche]

Originally Posted by Edward64

And Boebert is projected to win it by a comfortable margin. I guess moving to another district was a smart move.



Edit: … and down goes Bowman

We'll see, she's the one politician that could put that district, my district unfortunately, in play. She's not popular but she had the name recognition over 5 other candidates who failed to distinguish themselves.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Edward64

And Boebert is projected to win it by a comfortable margin. I guess moving to another district was a smart move.



Edit: … and down goes Bowman

party of family values...

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

It is funny, isn't it? The most exercise Trump gets is swinging at a golf ball and riding a golf cart. Meanwhile, Joe still rides a freaking bike. Could you imagine that fat orange om-pa-lompa riding a bike? Biden is physically in better shape than Trump, and even if he has mentally lost some edge, he started so far ahead of Trump he still laps him. Joe has to slow process every once in awhile, meanwhile Trump has never processed anything a day in his life.

Actual shot of Trump on a bike

[GrantDawg]

I was in Atlanta today and saw a sign warning of bad traffic delays tomorrow, and I was like "What;s happening tomorrow? Oh, the debate."

Nate Silver just posted his forecast of the election, and basically says it is Trump's to lose. He says looking at the data that the race isn't even really that close. Biden has little chance of winning Georgia, Arizona or Nevada, so that means he must win Michigan, Pennsylvanian and Wisconsin to get the Eloctoral College. And his numbers there aren't great either. The chances of him losing one or more is pretty high.

[albionmoonlight]

But 538 has it as a toss up.

Such a weird election.

[RainMaker]

538 is now run by the numbers guy from The Economist. He has had a spotty track record. Silver is a doofus and I think his analysis sucks, but he's been pretty damn good with the numbers.

I think most of the data folks see it the same way. Biden is cooked in Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia. Needs to win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan to hang on. Still think he has a decent chance to win those states but Michigan is going to be real tough with the higher Arab population and the complete loss of youth voters.

[Brian Swartz]

LoL. Nate Silver is many things, but he is far from a doofus. I don't understand this continuing trend of 'this person disagrees with me, therefore they must be a moron'.

As a Michigander, why do you think there's a complete loss of youth voters? Suffice to say I would be very surprised if Trump wins Michigan. It could happen, but I think the odds are quite low.

[Swaggs]

I think North Carolina is going to be really close this year, as well. I don't know if Biden can win this time, but I'll be a little surprised if we don't see a few polls with him leading there at some point in the remaining cycle.

Anecdotally, I have talked to several people that I would consider conservative, in the last few weeks, that have been more outspoken about being disgusted with Trump and just wanting this part of GOP history to be over with. For him to win and without a giant Biden blunder or health scare, I think his team is really going to have to keep him under wraps for the next few months (which is entirely possible).

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

LoL. Nate Silver is many things, but he is far from a doofus. I don't understand this continuing trend of 'this person disagrees with me, therefore they must be a moron'.

As a Michigander, why do you think there's a complete loss of youth voters? Suffice to say I would be very surprised if Trump wins Michigan. It could happen, but I think the odds are quite low.

Not saying he's a moron at all. He's a brilliant statistician. Just think he comes across like a doofus when he goes into pundit mode and shifts away from the math. He had some bizarre COVID conspiracy takes.

As for Michigan, they have a higher than average Arab population which used to be strongly Biden. And the state had a hefty uptick in youth voters from 2016 which I just don't see continuing at that level. The state was fairly close and Biden was leading in the polls by like 7-8% at this time in 2020.

I think the election comes down to turnout. A lot of people were motivated to vote Trump out in 2020. I just don't think there will be as much motivation as last time with such an unpopular President unless Trump really steps in some shit (always a possibility!).

[Brian Swartz]

Ok, it's just a difference in terminology. I don't see the difference between the word 'doofus' and 'moron'. They are the same thing in my mind.

I agree with you on turnout, but there's a lot of hate for Whitmer and that didn't stop her from winning easily, as one example. Of course Dixon was a disastrous candidate, but it was still a double-digit spread.

I guess like with everything else, we'll wait and see.

[RainMaker]

Michigan should be solidly blue this cycle but Biden is so incredibly unpopular it sort of throws the state into flux.

Definitely don't think Whitmer wins by double digits against a semi-competent candidate but do think she wins by a comfy margin still. Slotkin seems to be up 3-5 points in most polls in the Senate race which feels like most Dems should be polling in Michigan.

[dubb93]

How much more shit could Trump possibly step in? He’s bulletproof with his base. Trump could roll into a town with Slim Pickens and run a number 6 on it and his base would somehow justify it.

[albionmoonlight]

It is easy to forget how much of a bubble I live in.

I live in a blue-tinted purple area. And my personal social circle tends to be liberal or non-MAGA conservatives. So I sometimes think to myself "how does Trump have a slight lead right now? It makes no sense."

I just got back from visiting family in Trump Country. And it was good to be reminded of just how strong his support is. Lots of Trump everywhere. And what's interesting is that it isn't just the typical GOP/Candidate yard signs. It is very Trump-specific flags and banners and stickers and everything. Many of which are obviously not produced by the campaign but are (I assume) from an etsy-like place for Trump merch. You almost wouldn't realize that he's a political candidate. The closest analogy I can think of is college sports fandom/flags/stickers/etc.

Anyway, liberals like me underestimate how deep and broad his support is in a lot of the country.

[albionmoonlight]

dola: And I have no idea if Don Jr. or DeSantis or Carlson or Vance or whomever will be able to capture that when Trump leaves or if he's really 1 of 1.

[Lathum]

I've come to accept the fact we are going to get another 4 years of Trump and the ghouls that will run roughshod over democracy. As an upper middle class white guy I will be fine, but I worry about the state of the nation after another 4 years. Womens, LGBTQ, immigrants, etc...it is going to be a disaster. I guess this is who we are as a nation.

[JPhillips]

It isn't yet July. Nothing is decided and most polling shows the race to be very close.

[JPhillips]

dola

If there really is a drug that magically cured dementia, yes, lots of old people should take it all the time.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

You almost wouldn't realize that he's a political candidate. The closest analogy I can think of is college sports fandom/flags/stickers/etc.

Again, I wish these people could direct their energy into sports fandom, because I think a lot of it is indeed that. They've joined a team, they have hatred of the other team, and nothing else (i.e. actual governance) actually matters. Which is great in sports, where it DOESN'T matter. Here, not as great.

[dubb93]

Did you see any of the car window decals that makes it look like Trump is either driving the car or riding in the passenger seat?

[dubb93]

People really put that on their car windows.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I've come to accept the fact we are going to get another 4 years of Trump and the ghouls that will run roughshod over democracy. As an upper middle class white guy I will be fine, but I worry about the state of the nation after another 4 years. Womens, LGBTQ, immigrants, etc...it is going to be a disaster. I guess this is who we are as a nation.

Co-sign. I don't expect my life to get appreciably worse, but I hate that the same can't be said for others and that, in all likelihood, the last 2 or 3 decades of my time on this planet are going to be during a time in which the US is headed downhill while a bunch of aging white Christian racists rage against the dying light to retain their status/power.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

Gas has seemingly cost over $4 on the West coast for as long as I can remember....or at least a couple years.

I share the complaints about gas prices, but then I get completely thrown off when I see people complaining about gas that's practically $2 less than the going rate over here.

Biden can't do anything about specific state prices though. In Washington our prices are high because oil companies realized they can pass off the cost to buy carbon credits for the year onto customers. They thought it would force the state to drop the bidding on credits but the state isn't caving.

We also have lower home energy costs than most states. I pay about $120 a month to heat and cool a 2300 square foot home while some of my friends in Texas are pushing $300+ per month on average for smaller homes.

[henry296]

Distance from the refineries + taxes are the biggest drivers of regional differences in gas prices.

[cuervo72]

What? I just thought presidents happened to hate Hawaii...

[QuikSand]

"presidents definitely set gas prices" -us voters

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

It isn't yet July. Nothing is decided and most polling shows the race to be very close.

Trumps been consistently behind in all the swing states and Biden is bleeding support from minorities and Latinos. His biggest problem is one that can’t be fixed, his age, and every gaffe is shown on a loop. Biden’s most likely cooked in Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona leaving him a very slim path.

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by henry296

Distance from the refineries + taxes are the biggest drivers of regional differences in gas prices.

Oregon also got rid of the requirement for gas station attendants to pump your gas relatively recently, and even though it's been over a year I expect some of those costs were baked in over time and nobdy's really rushing to readjust those costs back in the consumer's favor.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Nate Silver just posted his forecast of the election, and basically says it is Trump's to lose. He says looking at the data that the race isn't even really that close.

It's kind of shocking. Silver’s model, which ran 40,000 simulations, suggests that Trump has a 65.7% chance of winning the Electoral College, with an average margin of 287.2 electoral votes.

I suppose this actually makes sense, given that Trump has a slight lead in the national popular vote right now. If the popular vote ends up close to 50/50, Trump should win the electoral college by a comfortable margin.

[Ksyrup]

It's like a bad and worse scenario - one, Trump likely is going to win. But two, if he doesn't, so many people are going to have read for months in the media that Trump will probably win that if he actually were to lose, I doubt Biden's victory gets certified because nobody will believe it - which, in turn, will lend credence to Trump's 2020 argument (in some twisted way, even without evidence then or now).

In sum... we're fucked one way or the other.

[MJ4H]

If you want to talk about presidents' effects on gas prices, I don't know of much that has affected them as much as Trump's two deals with OPEC to first flood the market with oil pre-covid and then cut back on production post-covid. The first nearly destroyed the american oil and gas industry and the second, as a desperate attempt to save it, was such an over-reaction that it led to the huge spike we saw in 2021-2022.

But yeah, mostly presidents don't affect gas prices much.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

In sum... we're fucked one way or the other.

And it didn't need to be that way, but Biden and his pals in the democrat party establishment have doubled and tripled down on the flawed belief that they can put a walking corpse up against Trump, and because Trump is such a reprehensible and despicable human being that the walking corpse will cross the finish line ahead of him. A lot of democrat strategists like Carville have already come to the conclusion that this election is probably lost for Biden.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

the democrat party

Yeah with that phraseology I'm sure you'd be voting for them if they ran someone else.

(Also, no blame for the party who nominated the other guy three straight times, right?)

[cuervo72]

Also, none of y'all have any relatives that age? Is it common parlance to refer to them as "walking corpses"?

[cuervo72]

I mean, the Republicans could have:

1. Voted to impeach him the first time
2. Voted to impeach him the second time
3. Taken the J6 hearings seriously
4. Taken any of the election denialism seriously
5. Not interfered with the Georgia case
6. Not slow-walked the documents case
7. Not slow-walked Presidential immunity in the SCOTUS
8. Not voted for him in the primaries
9. Ditched him after the NY verdict

But no! Still the fault of the Democratic Party that they didn't ditch their sitting president, who by most objective measures outside of gas prices (which are debatable) and the fact that he didn't somehow age backwards has done a pretty decent jobs? Fuck right off with all that.