2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread

[Atocep]

If we were to use Trump supporter logic you could say it's a 4D chess move to make a play for Trump's base.

[Brian Swartz]

Biden is not an idiot. He is a man who appears to be too old to credibly handle the job of POTUS, but it's a little early to get overly worried about that IMO. We're still in the name-recognition stage. Also amused at Bennet claiming the DNC is stifling debate. It's not like 2% is a huge polling number.

[SackAttack]

Joe, I love ya, but I have zero interest in a septuagenarian President, now, or ever again.

Go away, please.

[bronconick]

Biden's best shot was 2016 but between his son's death and it being " Her Turn", welp.

[molson]

There can't be too many guys that ran for their party's presidential nominations 32 years apart. This is kind of like if Ted Kennedy ran in 2008.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Biden is not an idiot. He is a man who appears to be too old to credibly handle the job of POTUS, but it's a little early to get overly worried about that IMO.

Biden has always been a politicians who has made flubs though (a big flub killed his 1988 campaign, IIRC). This isn't really an age thing, IMO.

[albionmoonlight]

My current thinking:

Dems I would like to be President because I think they'd do a good job (regardless of electability): Warren, Buttigieg, Klobuchar

Dems I think have the best chance of beating Trump: Biden, Harris

Dems I really don't want: Gabbard, Williamson, Sanders

Dems I'd be fine with: Everyone else.

[molson]

I woke up the other day to about a dozen posts on facebook with friends and family in New Hampshire getting photos with Pete Buttigieg. He went to church on Sunday at the outdoor chapel of the summer camp I went to and worked at - and where my sister and a bunch of friends still hang out at some weekends in the summer, (it's a big camp with a RV/cabin rental component across the street from the kid's summer camp.)

He took communion and everything - I didn't realize he was Episcopalian, which converts at a 1:1 ratio with the camp's ELCA Lutheran persuasion. Then he filed his Meet the Press segment that morning from the camp's dining hall. All my friends and family who met him were just smitten. It was crazy to see photos of him just hanging around this camp I've been a part of for 35 years.

Campaigning must be exhausting. But it was probably nice to sit there outside for 45 minutes at a church service where he didn't have to say anything or be "on."

Edit: His campaign seems to be fading quite a bit, but I wonder if his base is this progressive, young, Christian, educated, not-overly political types that fawned all over him on Sunday. Probably not a great base for a national election.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by molson

Edit: His campaign seems to be fading quite a bit, but I wonder if his base is this progressive, young, Christian, educated, not-overly political types that fawned all over him on Sunday. Probably not a great base for a national election.

That's more or less his base and it's a major reason his campaign has done a solid job pulling in money without his support really growing.

I do think he's be attractive as a VP pick. IMO the strongest ticket Dems could probably run against Trump would be Warren/Booker. After that there's some combinations with Buttigieg that would play well on the national stage too. At the very least it would be interesting to see how the evangelicals would react to Trump/Haley against, let's say, a Warren/Buttigieg or Biden/Buggigieg ticket.

[JPhillips]

I think there are a lot of people that like Pete, but are worried he isn't ready to jump all the way to the White House. r

[albionmoonlight]

I think that Buttigieg can already consider this process a win, even if he fades and drops out after Iowa. He went from someone with super low recognition (I follow this stuff pretty closely, and I did not hear of him before this campaign) to someone that is now known and generally liked.

He seems to hit that sweet spot of not threatening enough to any front runner to be attacked, but known enough that he gets some media play.

I'd put him at the top of the likely Dem VP list right now. And, even if that does not work, I could see a cabinet position open up if the Dems win the White House.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I think that Buttigieg can already consider this process a win, even if he fades and drops out after Iowa. He went from someone with super low recognition (I follow this stuff pretty closely, and I did not hear of him before this campaign) to someone that is now known and generally liked.

He seems to hit that sweet spot of not threatening enough to any front runner to be attacked, but known enough that he gets some media play.

I'd put him at the top of the likely Dem VP list right now. And, even if that does not work, I could see a cabinet position open up if the Dems win the White House.

I agree. I think he is the big winner and break out star so far, even if he still a huge long shot to win the nomination. A few might have up their profile a bit, but none to Pete's level.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

My current thinking:

Dems I would like to be President because I think they'd do a good job (regardless of electability): Warren, Buttigieg, Klobuchar

Dems I think have the best chance of beating Trump: Biden, Harris

Dems I really don't want: Gabbard, Williamson, Sanders

Dems I'd be fine with: Everyone else.

This is a fun game. Let's play:


Dems I would like to be President because I think they'd do a good job (regardless of electability): Harris (Sharp and Capable), Booker (Inspiring), and Yang (Wildcard, Truly push the American Experiment)


Dems I think have the best chance of beating Trump: That is tough. I don't really think Biden is the best candidate to beat him at all. I worry about Warren as well. I would in the end say Harris or Booker. I really think they all have a good chance, but can definitely fail. I think it might depend more on circumstance and how Trump runs.



Dems I really don't want: Biden, Warren or Sanders. That is my very unpopular hot take. Still want any of them over Trump.


Dems I'd be fine with: Basically anyone.

[larrymcg421]

Dems I would like to be President because I think they'd do a good job (regardless of electability): Warren, Booker

Dems I think have the best chance of beating Trump: Biden, Booker, Harris

Dems I really don't want: Gabbard, Williamson

Dems I'd be fine with: Most others.

[Lathum]

Gillebrand out.

[NobodyHere]

Good Riddance

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Gillebrand out.

Man I feel like I’m not going to get my $1 T-shirt.

[Izulde]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Gillebrand out.

It's weird - on paper, you think she'd have at least been in the conversation of the lower-tier candidates. But she was strangely invisible for most of the election cycle.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Izulde

It's weird - on paper, you think she'd have at least been in the conversation of the lower-tier candidates. But she was strangely invisible for most of the election cycle.

That's how I feel about Klobuchar. I liked her as a candidate, and she seemed pretty well positioned on paper: woman, Midwestern, liberal but not too liberal.

But stories came out about how she was a mean boss, and, like, that was it.

Weird.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Izulde

It's weird - on paper, you think she'd have at least been in the conversation of the lower-tier candidates. But she was strangely invisible for most of the election cycle.

It seems like a lot of Dems blame her for Al Franken leaving. That's always the first thing I hear when she comes up

[JPhillips]

I wonder if her physical similarity to Hillary hurt her. Voters make decisions mostly absent of policy considerations.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by molson

It seems like a lot of Dems blame her for Al Franken leaving. That's always the first thing I hear when she comes up

She did a fantastic interview on NPR about that. She still stands by it, even id it hurt her. She says an aide that worked with him talked to her personally about it, and she still believes her. Her best point was it hasn't really hurt anyone but Franken. Personally, I like Franken, but I really don't have a problem with him resigning. I think a Senator should be above reproach. I also don't like the hypocrisy of calling republicans out for the same infractions but over-looking it in popular liberals. The inte4rview was mostly about the article that calls into question some of the accusations of the one named accuser, but she points out there where 7 others. I can't tell you I knowv all the facts, but I believe Gillibrand.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

That's how I feel about Klobuchar. I liked her as a candidate, and she seemed pretty well positioned on paper: woman, Midwestern, liberal but not too liberal.

But stories came out about how she was a mean boss, and, like, that was it.

Weird.

I think Klonuchar also admitted that after those stories she was trying to play nice, and that doesn't really help you stand out in a crowded field. Even Booker's superliminal optimism isn't getting him much traction.

[QuikSand]

Daniel Dale on Twitter: "This was the tweet:… "

oh.

[ISiddiqui]

After like, what, 1 or 2 polls that showed Biden in a dead heat with Sanders and Warren... it appears those were completely outliers. People freaked out about those way too much. Seems it's back to Biden with 30%+, Sanders around 20%, Warren 15%+, and everyone else. Harris has gone all the way back down to <10%. Buttigieg, Booker, O'Rourke, and Yang are all in the 3-5% area.

[NobodyHere]

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/04/u...nge-plans.html

Well at least it's cheaper than Bernie's 16 trillion dollar plan.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

After like, what, 1 or 2 polls that showed Biden in a dead heat with Sanders and Warren... it appears those were completely outliers. People freaked out about those way too much. Seems it's back to Biden with 30%+, Sanders around 20%, Warren 15%+, and everyone else. Harris has gone all the way back down to <10%. Buttigieg, Booker, O'Rourke, and Yang are all in the 3-5% area.

If it has to be one of the top 3, I'd go with Biden. VP candidate is more interesting, I like Yang just because he is so different.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

After like, what, 1 or 2 polls that showed Biden in a dead heat with Sanders and Warren... it appears those were completely outliers. People freaked out about those way too much. Seems it's back to Biden with 30%+, Sanders around 20%, Warren 15%+, and everyone else. Harris has gone all the way back down to <10%. Buttigieg, Booker, O'Rourke, and Yang are all in the 3-5% area.

I think he's mostly maxed out his support though. The analytical data is trending Warren's way and I think she'll be the big gainer as others drop. Bernie seems to have his loyal base, but has struggled to expand beyond it.

There's a reason 538 still favors the field over Biden.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I think he's mostly maxed out his support though. The analytical data is trending Warren's way and I think she'll be the big gainer as others drop. Bernie seems to have his loyal base, but has struggled to expand beyond it.

There's a reason 538 still favors the field over Biden.

But on the latest podcast, seems to suggest that it will likely be one of those three, with Warren the most likely. I still hope it is one of the field over those three, but it looks unlikely right now.

[PilotMan]

I really hope against hope that all we're left with in 2020 are 3 more baby boomers. That is the most depressing thought I can think of besides 4 more years of Idiocracy.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I think he's mostly maxed out his support though. The analytical data is trending Warren's way and I think she'll be the big gainer as others drop. Bernie seems to have his loyal base, but has struggled to expand beyond it.

There's a reason 538 still favors the field over Biden.

Biden probably has, but there were plenty of folks who thought Biden's support would dry up as his gaffes got reported. Not the case. The other nominees will be have to fight to bring Biden down. I think Warren is probably best suited to it, because Bernie also seems to have a small but consistent loyal base yet turns off a lot of others.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Biden probably has, but there were plenty of folks who thought Biden's support would dry up as his gaffes got reported. Not the case. The other nominees will be have to fight to bring Biden down. I think Warren is probably best suited to it, because Bernie also seems to have a small but consistent loyal base yet turns off a lot of others.

I think Biden is where he is going to be. I doubt he ever losses much support, but I doubt he gains any either. He is the pick of the "safe bet" part of the party, and I don't see that growing. Warren seems to be the candidate that can get voters on the full range. She pulls from the part of far left that don't support Bernie for a host of reasons. She also pulls from the center as well because she has worked with the establishment for a long while (plus she is actually a democrat unlike Bernie). She can overtake Biden if say Bernie pulls out (not likely) or self destructs/has health issues (still not likely but probably more likely than him quitting).



I am just trying to see how anybody else really jumps up and holds on. It will take some kind of surprise move. Harris had her bump but wilted pretty quick under attacks on her record as Attorney General. Booker just can't get any traction being the happy warrior. Pete has had the biggest name recognition jump, but I just don't see how he moves any higher than he is now.



The dems really need a young, dynamic charismatic nominee. I just don't see one coming.

[Ben E Lou]

This Rick Wilson USA Today piece is everything: 2020 election is a referendum on Trump and Democrats are blowing it

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I think Biden is where he is going to be. I doubt he ever losses much support, but I doubt he gains any either. He is the pick of the "safe bet" part of the party, and I don't see that growing. Warren seems to be the candidate that can get voters on the full range. She pulls from the part of far left that don't support Bernie for a host of reasons. She also pulls from the center as well because she has worked with the establishment for a long while (plus she is actually a democrat unlike Bernie). She can overtake Biden if say Bernie pulls out (not likely) or self destructs/has health issues (still not likely but probably more likely than him quitting).



I am just trying to see how anybody else really jumps up and holds on. It will take some kind of surprise move. Harris had her bump but wilted pretty quick under attacks on her record as Attorney General. Booker just can't get any traction being the happy warrior. Pete has had the biggest name recognition jump, but I just don't see how he moves any higher than he is now.



The dems really need a young, dynamic charismatic nominee. I just don't see one coming.

I think it's Biden or Warren and I'd make Warren a slight favorite at this point.

I don't agree for the need for a young, charismatic nominee though. It would be a great thing to have (and I'd say Buttigieg already qualifies), but the Trump administration has everyone except Trump supporters looking more at the issues than at any point I can remember. Strong ideas and a path forward on those ideas is what's playing well right now and that's Warren's strength.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I think it's Biden or Warren and I'd make Warren a slight favorite at this point.

I don't agree for the need for a young, charismatic nominee though. It would be a great thing to have (and I'd say Buttigieg already qualifies), but the Trump administration has everyone except Trump supporters looking more at the issues than at any point I can remember. Strong ideas and a path forward on those ideas is what's playing well right now and that's Warren's strength.

I am sorry, I wasn't clear. What I would prefer is a young charismatic leader. I don't think they have to have one to win.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

This Rick Wilson USA Today piece is everything: 2020 election is a referendum on Trump and Democrats are blowing it

Funny you post this right as I mention the exact opposite opinion.

Trump didn't win because of a slogan and a hat. Obama didn't win because of a slogan and a poster. It's a gross oversimplification of events. Healthcare, Gun Control, LGBTQ rights, minimum wage, college costs are all policy discussion that are in the mainstream right now. The Trump administration has pushed policy to the forefront of political discussion.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I am sorry, I wasn't clear. What I would prefer is a young charismatic leader. I don't think they have to have one to win.

That I agree with. Buttigieg would be an ideal VP candidate for Biden, but I don't see him winning. His best path would probably be to run for governor and then run again at some point in the future.

The only knock I personally could put on Warren is her age. We do need younger leaders. In the general, though, I think the fact that she's a woman will hurt her more.

[ISiddiqui]

Of course, there is no way in Hell that Buttigieg can win Governor in Indiana.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Atocep

That I agree with. Buttigieg would be an ideal VP candidate for Biden, but I don't see him winning. His best path would probably be to run for governor and then run again at some point in the future.

The only knock I personally could put on Warren is her age. We do need younger leaders. In the general, though, I think the fact that she's a woman will hurt her more.

It is sad, but I agree. I also still think she feels like Hillary 2.0" to a lot of people, even though it isn't true. I disagree with you about what really engages the electorate, though. I think that in the primary policy ends up being very important, but the general brings in less engaged voters. Having something that excites them is pretty key.

[Atocep]

So Biden is reportedly has plans to attack Warren during Thursday's debate. This should be interesting as I don't think Biden is very strong on the attack.

What is eventually going to sink the Biden campaign, IMO, is he's trying to be everything to everyone and thus has no identity (other than VP for Obama). He plays himself up as a moderate to moderates and as progressive enough to the progressives. The progressives aren't buying it and right now he's riding Obama's coattails with the moderates. He really needs a strong debate Thursday or he's just going to watch his lead evaporate as others drop out and voters gravitate toward a single candidate.

[ISiddiqui]

Which other moderate has a chance though? Biden is leading because he's the main person that moderates can gravitate to. Even if he has a weak debate, it's not like moderates are going to flock en masse to Beto or Buttigieg.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Which other moderate has a chance though? Biden is leading because he's the main person that moderates can gravitate to. Even if he has a weak debate, it's not like moderates are going to flock en masse to Beto or Buttigieg.

He's a moderate and does a solid job attracting moderate support. The point is he's selling himself as the moderate solution that can beat Trump because he's a moderate yet he's also trying to sell his progressive record to progressives.

Most following the primary could give you an idea of what Sanders and Warren stances are on a lot of things. We know Yang wants to give everyone money. Biden is running on more Obama, but not really more Obama because we need to be more progressive.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Atocep

He's a moderate and does a solid job attracting moderate support. The point is he's selling himself as the moderate solution that can beat Trump because he's a moderate yet he's also trying to sell his progressive record to progressives.

Most following the primary could give you an idea of what Sanders and Warren stances are on a lot of things. We know Yang wants to give everyone money. Biden is running on more Obama, but not really more Obama because we need to be more progressive.

That still doesn't answer the question of what other moderates are going to step up. There are a LOT of Democratic moderates out there who don't want Sanders or Warren to win the nomination. Biden seems to be the big moderate candidate because other potential moderates - Harris, Beto, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Delaney, etc - haven't broken through for various reasons.

Who are the anti-Sanders & Warren crowd going to jump to if Biden falls?

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Which other moderate has a chance though? Biden is leading because he's the main person that moderates can gravitate to. Even if he has a weak debate, it's not like moderates are going to flock en masse to Beto or Buttigieg.

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

That still doesn't answer the question of what other moderates are going to step up. There are a LOT of Democratic moderates out there who don't want Sanders or Warren to win the nomination. Biden seems to be the big moderate candidate because other potential moderates - Harris, Beto, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Delaney, etc - haven't broken through for various reasons.

Who are the anti-Sanders & Warren crowd going to jump to if Biden falls?

Cory Booker! The guy who had a great 2016 DNC speech Corey Booker's entire Democratic convention speech - YouTube and is charismatic and accepted by Wall Street etc.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Cory Booker!

I'm buying (literally) Booker as having a legit chance to rise sometime soonish. I think there is a lane for a male non-socialist - that space is currently being occupied mainly by Biden, but as he fades (and he has to) many in the party will be wary of women (on silly grounds that it didn't work last time) and of too-sweeping policies (on reasonable grounds like the Rick Wilson article linked above - just play it safe)... and I think they could end up looking at Booker who is articulate, young-ish, and not saying outlandish stuff. (The specific argument for him over Buttigieg is subtle, but I'm sitting on a ton of 3c shares of Booker on PredictIt based on this logic)

[JPhillips]

If Biden wins Iowa, it's pretty much over, right?

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

If Biden wins Iowa, it's pretty much over, right?

I don't think so. I think the best parallel to this election is not the GOP in 2016, but rather the GOP in 2012. That was Mitt Romney as the nominal frontrunner, but who had detractors within the party. We saw over time the voters and party machinery just bounced around from one alternative to another as a rival to Romney... Rick Perry, Phil Thompson, Newt Gingrich, Herman Cain, even Rick Santorum. Just about everyone in the race got a little run somewhere, because there was an undercurrent that Romney was just "wrong." I feel like the same could happen here, to some degree. Not sure John Delaney gets a Herman Cain style run to the top at any point, but I could see it happening - especially if it looks like Biden and one of Sanders/Warren as the apparent finalists, a lot of "just win" Dems could find deep faults with both options there, and end up taking another look at someone else from the menu who might have finished up the track - Harris, Booker, Buttigieg, Yang, who knows.

The old line is Iowa punches three tickets. I think someone who's an also-ran in Iowa could remain viable as a potentially significant disaffected crowd within the party is unsatisfied with the frontrunners. Harris could run 5th or 6th in Iowa but still be alive for a California primary, frex.

[JPhillips]

Biden's main appeal, especially with African-American voters, is his electability. If he wins Iowa, doesn't he solidify that argument to a great degree? He almost certainly won't win NH, but I doubt that hurts him, and he may even get a boost with a second-place finish. If he wins in Iowa, he'll probably win SC by a big margin. Super Tuesday has a lot of southern states, and he'l again do well in those.

Now if Biden loses Iowa, the race will be wide open. His appeal right now is almost entirely on electability and if that collapses he might be out of the race after a poor Super Tuesday showing.

For me the big questions are how long are both Sanders and Warrren in the race, and when one of thems drops out, where does their support go?

[PilotMan]

Booker has also been my current hopeful. He's further back than I would like, but I think he would decimate trump in the general and debates.

[ISiddiqui]

I like Booker. I've given money to his campaign. I don't see how he gains traction as "the moderate" if he hasn't been able to get above 5% to date (and that was back in February - he's lower now).

He's also like 3rd in African-American support (behind Biden and Harris), which is a bit shocking but also hurts him a ton.