WW LXIV- The Wedding- GAME OVER GUESTS WIN

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

And Daddy Torgo is in the thread. (and hoops...it's times like this I wish you were playing)

Ditto, Hence my plea to path to come on. He's logical enough like hoops to pick up what we're puttin' down.

[DaddyTorgo]

it's not "throwing out some doubt and running."

it's "work is very busy right now and i have lots of time-sensitive things on my plate."

and i don't lie about RL in WW. when I say that's the case i mean it. I just took half of my normal lunch break because I have so much backed up.

i don't have time to read what everyone posted so far today yet. that will have to wait for 7pm.

bottom line is: I am the seer. Jeheinz72 is telling a WHOPPER. really...what are the odds he scanned 3 people and two of them were wolves? Does anyone in their right mind buy that? Isn't it more likely that I found ONE versus him finding TWO.

I say we vote RA, we're proved that I am right, and then we leave jeheinz72 alive afterwards since he counts for our #'s as far as victory conditions.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

And Daddy Torgo is in the thread. (and hoops...it's times like this I wish you were playing)

Me too, looks like a fun day. And I've got thoughts, but it wouldn't be very sporting to share them.

[jeheinz72]

Let's put this another way. Let's look at my reveal, presuming RA is a wolf (which all of you people in the middle who are voting for him are doing)

If I'm a wolf too, I'd have to be an idiot to try and fake-reveal-second. I'd hope you'd at least spot me that "given"

If I'm the Drama Queen, does it really make sense for me to out myself in order to try and save him?

Also, I just noticed something, the role of Drama Queen actually needs to be alive in order to win with the Wolves. Maybe DT did get converted, since his reveal wouldn't make sense from his standpoint if he's the drama queen.

So if I'm the Drama Queen then too, why would I throw myself in harms way (i.e. death if RA is lynched and comes up wolf) just to *try* and save him? I wouldn't really gain that much by saving him (since there would be another wolf out there) and I'd basically be killing myself.

[DaddyTorgo]

why i scanned who i scanned (and then i need to get back to work)

NTN - dangerous very UTR type player. always seems to be on the opposite side from me
CR - dangerous player for either side, but particularly effective staying alive as a wolf
RA - it was between him and Path to me. His play on the first couple days just had me curious, he seemed to be offering a lot of analysis and it was one of those "can i trust his analysis" type scans.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

bottom line is: I am the seer. Jeheinz72 is telling a WHOPPER. really...what are the odds he scanned 3 people and two of them were wolves? Does anyone in their right mind buy that? Isn't it more likely that I found ONE versus him finding TWO.

Apparently it's 1 in HoweverManyGamesHaveBeenPlayed

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

why i scanned who i scanned (and then i need to get back to work)

NTN - dangerous very UTR type player. always seems to be on the opposite side from me
CR - dangerous player for either side, but particularly effective staying alive as a wolf
RA - it was between him and Path to me. His play on the first couple days just had me curious, he seemed to be offering a lot of analysis and it was one of those "can i trust his analysis" type scans.

Those are some awfully non-descript non-game-related scan logics...

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Apparently it's 1 in HoweverManyGamesHaveBeenPlayed

funny man.


okay...i need to get back to updating databases and creating marketing collateral. i will be back on ~ 7pm EST.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

Okay smart guy. jeheinz and I have discussed this, but give me your theory on why jeheinz and I are lying at this point in the game. Why would a wolf cover for the other right now when there are 13 players left?

Because one of you is not a wolf. There is another working with you whom we don't know yet.

[jeheinz72]

I think now that I've looked closer at the role of Drama Queen that DT did get converted last night and the wolves decided that since he was a convert and they're essentially playing with house money with him, to have him fake reveal to get me to reveal myself.

It worked, but they just didn't bank on the fact that I was improbably lucky and talented with my scans.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

Dola, all you've done is try to discredit jeheinz's story, while improbable is true. You've done nothing to give any motivation behind us working together.

Not sure what motivation is needed beyond, "you're a wolf, you will get lynched without a defense, so jeheinz to the rescue."

[mauchow]

IMO, we need to sway our votes to heinz's side because it will do a tad bit more for us than against us if we do it. Tonight we're going to find out who's lying.

Heinz revealing that he's a seer would be the silliest move in the world if he wasn't actually the seer. His name was never once thrown around as being guilty and all of the sudden he wants to be recognized and get his name out there as a possible bad guy? That makes no sense and I believe JH is smart enough to know that.

I'll try to put more together tonight but I'm finding more time than I thought here at work today.. slow as hell thanks to snow.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Those are some awfully non-descript non-game-related scan logics...

no, they actually are game-related. #3 is related to this game specifically. #1 + #2 are meta-game related. And they're all strong, experienced players where I wanted to know how they stood.

Notice also that I did not reveal anymore about their roles. I'm not about to out any other helpful roles.

back to work for me. more later.

don't buy into jeheinz's tall-tale. or RA's pathetic, wolfy baying-at-the-moon

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Also, I just noticed something, the role of Drama Queen actually needs to be alive in order to win with the Wolves. Maybe DT did get converted, since his reveal wouldn't make sense from his standpoint if he's the drama queen.

So if I'm the Drama Queen then too, why would I throw myself in harms way (i.e. death if RA is lynched and comes up wolf) just to *try* and save him? I wouldn't really gain that much by saving him (since there would be another wolf out there) and I'd basically be killing myself.

We have seen this before in other games. The rules state the explicit victory conditions, but what someone individually considers a victory may be different.

So maybe by the rules, as a dead DQ, you don't win when the wolves win. But certainly you will have helped them win and can take some satisfaction from that. If you believe they lose otherwise, meaning you get no satisfaction at all, you might do that. In fact, I think practice has shown that people in those circumstances fairly often do do that, sacrificing themselves for the "side" (whichever they are on) and consider it a win if their side wins, even though they died.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

We have seen this before in other games. The rules state the explicit victory conditions, but what someone individually considers a victory may be different.

So maybe by the rules, as a dead DQ, you don't win when the wolves win. But certainly you will have helped them win and can take some satisfaction from that. If you believe they lose otherwise, meaning you get no satisfaction at all, you might do that. In fact, I think practice has shown that people in those circumstances fairly often do do that, sacrificing themselves for the "side" (whichever they are on) and consider it a win if their side wins, even though they died.

I can see that. I think really a vote for DT only makes sense after we 86 you and Barkeep anyhow.

[oliegirl]

Couldn't what Heinz is saying about DT, he's the drama queen, etc...actually be reversed and Heinz revealed b/c he is the drama queen? Maybe one of the "jobs" of the drama queen was to pull some sort of fake reveal or create drama? Could specifics be written into a role that way?

[ntndeacon]

My opinion is that tonights lynching will tell all. I have no problem even if Je is correct with lynching RA tonight. If RA is guilty we know that JE is on the other side even if he is a drama Queen, and if RA is innocent, we can hang Chief Rum tomorrow.

[jeheinz72]

Ok, so one last attempt before I actually get some work done. Surely, the proof is in the pudding (the votes). We're dealing with 4 highly experienced and respected players as wolves here (Pass, BK, CR and DT), but I still think they've slipped up somewhere..

Let's look at the last votes

Day Three
Passacaglia 7 ( Path12 363, Oliegirl 411, Arles 427, Farrah 451, Barkeep 461, RaidersArmy 468, Schmidty 476)
Mauboy 4 ( Chiefrum 368, Claphasma 408, DaddyTorgo 431, Passacaglia 471)
Barkeep49 2 ( JeHeinze 385, Mauboy 400)

Ah, the meat and potatoes

From my perspective of what is right (CR/BK/Pass/DT are bad): Lookie here. CR, Pass and DT are ALL VOTING together to try and save a wolf freind. BK admiteddly votes for Pass, but he did it to make it 5-3-2 and with over 2 hours to deadline, I think he thought things would switch up a bit more and he could cover him at the end if he could get away with it.

We all know it's a wise move for wolves to come out against wolves sometimes. I think by the time he could realistically flip to Mau it was too late, he couldn't have it go from 6-4 to 5-5 without looking guilty as sin and having the whole pack of the 4 of them voting together. Then Schmidty votes Pass and it's a lost cause anyhow. I figure BK had to cut the line to Pass, let him die and look good by voting for him. It was his only move at that point.

From their perspective of the truth (RA, Pass and PlayerX are Wolves, I'm the wolf-lover): You've got RA who makes it go from 5-3-2 to 6-3-1, effectively sealing the deal on Pass getting lynched. It's one thing to make it so a flip in votes still keeps it close, it's another for a wolf to make it where you'd need two people to come on and switch or flip their vote to save a fellow wolf. Especially an hour closer to deadline than when BK cast Pass's 5th vote. If RA is a wolf, that would be a HIGHLY risky play. He could've achieved the same level of protection by just not changing his vote and/or waiting.

To analyze my vote, since I leave early, when I left for the day, Pass and Mau had 3 votes apiece. Two other people had two votes on them My vote was one of 2 on BK.

Now go into my mindset here and pretend you're me and I'm the wolf lover (which I'm not actually). Wouldn't it make sense for me to ease off the gas on BK and flip over to Mau before leaving? Just to help out and potentially help avoid getting a wolf lynched? I mean I had already voted Mau on Day two, so the pre-vote logic to justify it would've been there. Why wouldn't I do that if I was the wolf-lover?

[claphamsa]

ok ill bite
unvite RA
vite BK

[Arles]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Personally, I think you need to look at one of the Rahn's, but that's just me.

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Actually I just put in the order to scan Arlie (not that I really think he's a wolf, but if there is a mysterious 4th wolf out there, I might as well scan away. I tend to believe there are just two true wolves left, CR and BK).

RA and Mau, if you guys believe jeheinz72, the game is over and the guests win. He's stated the wolves are CR and Barkeep, with the assumption that DT is the drama queen because of his "deceptive" claim as the seer. We already know Pass is a wolf so there would be no reason for any more scans if JH is telling the truth. And, quite honestly, it doesn't really matter who we vote for tonight as we just need the following two votes to win (CR and Barkeep).

Using logic, there is no reason to rush to jeheinz's claim. Since he was fortunate enough to identify all the wolves, it's a simple win if he's right whether we believe him today or wait for tomorrow. However, DT was only able to name one of the remaining two wolves. So, if he's right and we don't believe him, we may lose the game.

To be honest, I may have believed JH had he just nailed one of the wolves (say Barkeep) and listed two other guests as part of his "seer list". But, since he's given us a full list, there is no risk with voting RA and waiting for tomorrow in the event DT played us. In fact, as a guest, I hope DT played us as the next three votes will be RA, Barkeep and CR and then we win. There is no such luck in the next three weeks if DT is right (that is unless he can seer and find another wolf the next few nights).

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Arles

Using logic, there is no reason to rush to jeheinz's claim. Since he was fortunate enough to identify all the wolves, it's a simple win if he's right whether we believe him today or wait for tomorrow. However, DT was only able to name one of the remaining two wolves. So, if he's right and we don't believe him, we may lose the game.

The difference is Arlie, if you believe me and we make quick work of the wolves we can still get the major win. If DT is the drama queen then they'll only have one chance to kill the Bride or Groom since it would go lynch-kill-lynch (end).
If you go DT's way it goes badlynch-kill-lynch-kill-lynch (end)

And as far as my list, hey man, I scanned who I scanned. Should I have lied about who I scanned and what the result was? It just seems to me that if I intentionally lied things could come into question that aren't true anyhow, ya know. Kind of like if I lie and then I"m left defending a position that even I know to be untrue. I scanned who I scanned. I gave the results. I'll admit it seems spectacular that I was so lucky, but I was, I don't know what more I can say on that. I've given reasons on why I scanned who I scanned, no one seems to dispute my logic so how far-fetched can it be?

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

Couldn't what Heinz is saying about DT, he's the drama queen, etc...actually be reversed and Heinz revealed b/c he is the drama queen? Maybe one of the "jobs" of the drama queen was to pull some sort of fake reveal or create drama? Could specifics be written into a role that way?

Yes, I think that is "their" defense. That I'm really the DQ trying to save RA. I can see where one would think that could be true. It just happens that it's NOT. What can I say, DT stayed up later than I get to work

[Arles]

Again, I'm leaving in a few for yet another meeting, but I will boil it down to a simple concept of risk analysis:

Case 1: JeHe is right and we vote Barkeep. We win after two votes (BK and CR).

Case 2: JeHe is right and we vote RA. We win after three votes (RA, BK, CR).

Case 3: DT is right and we vote RA. We are down to 1 wolf and the DQ. We can make a strong case for JH to be the DQ, but we don't know the final wolf. I'm guessing it's one of Mau, Clap and Schmidty - but it may take 2-4 more weeks to find the last one. Best case, we luck out and win in 2 weeks. Worst case, it takes 2-3 weeks and we barely win.

Case 4: DT is right and we vote BK. We kill a guest (maybe even the bodyguard or important one). We then vote off RA tomorrow, but we don't know the final wolf. Now, we are two weeks in and still need to find the last wolf. Best case, we luck out and win in 4 weeks. Worst case, it takes 5 weeks and all the important guests get found by the wolf.

Case 5: Both are wolves, neither are the seer and it really doesn't matter who we vote for as JeHe and DT are two of the last three wolves. Hopefully the real seer finds the final wolf in the next 3 weeks and we win. Even if they don't, we should still win in 4.

The worst case is easily number 4. Either 1 or 2 are preferred, but given the risk with case 4, why get greedy and choose case 1? The smart play is to vote off RA today and see if he was a wolf. If he is, we still have some work to do but we are in good shape to win. If he isn't, we can vote barkeep and then it's an easy win if he is. If he is not and both "seers" were lying, it will take an extra week to recover but we know two wolves so we should still win.

The more I look at it, here's the order by probability in my mind:

1. DT is a seer, RA is a wolf and Jehe is the DQ.
2. DT and JeHe are both wolves and one is probably the DQ. Barkeep and RA are both guests (one potentially being an important one).
3. Jehe is a seer with DT as the DQ with BK and CR as the last two wolves.

Option 2 does scare me, but there's still no better play than RA as even if we voted DT or JeHe, one might be the DQ and show as a guest. Voting RA has the least amount of risk and gives us a chance to win regardless of which of the three above situations are true. Voting Barkeep gives us the worst chance to win by the numbers.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

The difference is Arlie, if you believe me and we make quick work of the wolves we can still get the major win. If DT is the drama queen then they'll only have one chance to kill the Bride or Groom since it would go lynch-kill-lynch (end).
If you go DT's way it goes badlynch-kill-lynch-kill-lynch (end)

IMO, we will lose someone important tonight. If you are the seer, it will probably be the groom (with the groom avoiding death last night) as the seer has no value now. If you are not the seer, it would probably be DT (if he's the seer), the groom or maybe the BG (this is doubtful, though) as the seer can still give value in finding the final wolf.

In your best case, I think the groom dies tonight.

[Arles]

Double dola, if option 2 is the case, I hope the "real" seer speaks up before tonight. If that doesn't happen, then option 2 drops off my radar (unless somehow one of the first two guests killed were the seer and Lathum didn't tell us).

[jeheinz72]

I think what you say is correct Arles, if we want to settle for a minor win. Yes, if we all want to pack our bags, take an easy minor win and call it a day, then fine. But c'mon. Werewolf isn't life or death here, let's get that Major win, it's within our reach, we just need to have the balls to go for it.

Re:Case #4 (i.e. the reason you want risk it basically, and a case that is FALSE) - Don't you think the votes today and for RA tomorrow would then flesh out enough info to get that last wolf anyhow? Plus DT would be alive to make scans (NOT THAT HE'S THE REAL SEER ANYWAY).


I also think you're focusing too much on potential outcomes and not so much about what has happened on past days. Riddle me this, if as you state in the most likely case, I'm the DQ, then why did the votes go down like they did on Day 3? Why would I not try to save someone I know to be a wolf when I easily could have at least made an effort?

Also, I'm in FOUR BBCF leagues. Pass was just in two, so I see why that didn't save him, but I'm in FOUR mayn!

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Also, I'm in FOUR BBCF leagues. Pass was just in two, so I see why that didn't save him, but I'm in FOUR mayn!

Maybe if you said you have BOUGHT BBCF four times....

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

Maybe if you said you have BOUGHT BBCF four times....

Ha, good point!

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Because one of you is not a wolf. There is another working with you whom we don't know yet.

So either jeheinz or myself is not a wolf but one of us is? That makes no sense whatsoever. By my logic:

1. Obviously either jeheinz or DT is a wolf (one of them is lying).
2. Obviously you believe DT is telling the true by your vote on me.
3. Therefore you believe jeheinz is a wolf.
4. That means that I am not a wolf.

Why vote for me then?

You don't make any sense which is why I find it hard to see why anyone wouldn't see that you're a wolf.

[Raiders Army]

And come on everyone, as jeheinz pointed out, I was the one who wanted to consolidate votes on two candidates yesterday. I made my switch to Pass at the end to ensure his lynch.

The other thing is that if jeheinz and I are wolves, I would've at least coordinated with him so that he did a reveal that didn't sound so outlandish and then also claim to be either the bride or groom to push you over to voting for DT.

Here's another point, why would the seer come out today? DT came out of nowhere and outed himself as the seer with ONE KNOWN WOLF WITH TWO OTHER WOLVES OUT THERE. If he really were the seer, then he would have kept his mouth shut and quietly voted for me and tried to sway people. He obviously is able to come on later in the day, so why do it in the morning? There was no need to come out at this point.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

So either jeheinz or myself is not a wolf but one of us is? That makes no sense whatsoever. By my logic:

1. Obviously either jeheinz or DT is a wolf (one of them is lying).
2. Obviously you believe DT is telling the true by your vote on me.
3. Therefore you believe jeheinz is a wolf.
4. That means that I am not a wolf.

Why vote for me then?

You don't make any sense which is why I find it hard to see why anyone wouldn't see that you're a wolf.

You do understand that the DQ is not a wolf, right?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

So either jeheinz or myself is not a wolf but one of us is? That makes no sense whatsoever. By my logic:

1. Obviously either jeheinz or DT is a wolf (one of them is lying).
2. Obviously you believe DT is telling the true by your vote on me.
3. Therefore you believe jeheinz is a wolf.
4. That means that I am not a wolf.

Why vote for me then?

You don't make any sense which is why I find it hard to see why anyone wouldn't see that you're a wolf.

Umm, there seems to be a big break in your logic from #2 to #3. DT never scanned jeheinz.

[jeheinz72]

Yeah, RA, I think what CR means is you're a wolf and I'm the DQ. Which isn't true, but that's the stuff he's schilling on the street to cover himself.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

You do understand that the DQ is not a wolf, right?

Yes. So you're saying I am a wolf and the DQ is covering for me. I understand what you said above now.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

And come on everyone, as jeheinz pointed out, I was the one who wanted to consolidate votes on two candidates yesterday. I made my switch to Pass at the end to ensure his lynch.

The other thing is that if jeheinz and I are wolves, I would've at least coordinated with him so that he did a reveal that didn't sound so outlandish and then also claim to be either the bride or groom to push you over to voting for DT.

Here's another point, why would the seer come out today? DT came out of nowhere and outed himself as the seer with ONE KNOWN WOLF WITH TWO OTHER WOLVES OUT THERE. If he really were the seer, then he would have kept his mouth shut and quietly voted for me and tried to sway people. He obviously is able to come on later in the day, so why do it in the morning? There was no need to come out at this point.

As noted, you're not both wolves. One of you is the DQ.

As for DT's timing, I'm not sure I would have done it either, but with one wolf dead, and has you on the string, I can't say he was wrong to come out. We lynch you today, and if DT is telling the truth, then there is likely just one wolf left with, what 10 of us? Pretty good odds.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

As noted, you're not both wolves. One of you is the DQ.

As for DT's timing, I'm not sure I would have done it either, but with one wolf dead, and has you on the string, I can't say he was wrong to come out. We lynch you today, and if DT is telling the truth, then there is likely just one wolf left with, what 10 of us? Pretty good odds.

No, there are 10 of us.

There are only 2 or 3 of you.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Umm, there seems to be a big break in your logic from #2 to #3. DT never scanned jeheinz.

I never said he said he scanned jeheinz. I will amend it to reflect the DQ:

1. Obviously either jeheinz or DT is the DQ (one of them is lying).
2. Obviously you believe DT is telling the truth by your vote on me.
3. Therefore you believe jeheinz is a DQ.

[mauchow]

Logic still tells me that we should be going with Heinz on this one regardless of the outcome. If he's really yankin' our chain we'd still be in the same spot we were going with DT's route because after getting rid of RA(If he's a wolf) we'd be basically left with no more information on anymore people anyways.

If we go with JH and he ends up being right we're so much further ahead in the game and its pretty much the home stretch then as far as our win goes.

In a nutshell, statistically speaking, we'd be so much better off going with JH than we would DT assuming that both are 'right' in their respects.

IF BARKEEP GOES HOME:

A: He's a wolf, game over pretty much.
B: He's not a wolf. We vote with Daddy T and get rid of Raiders Army and follow that with JeHeinz most likely. So we're basically Losing two bad guys in this stretch and probably three good guys after night actions, those are still okay odds.

IF WE RAIDERS ARMY GOES:

C: Raiders Army is a wolf. We then vote Heinz out unless we want to keep him around because he might be the Drama Queen. Beyond that, we got nothin'. We'll have to rely on getting more information day by day.

D: Raiders Army is not a wolf. We go back to JeH's plan and we're one day behind from where we could've been.

Statistically and logically, going with JH is pretty much the only route we should be going. Based on the votes right now, you can pretty much guarantee that the wolves votes are on RA right now so you won't see any of them coming over most likely but if they don't come over they'll look guilty.

If either of these guys are really a seer, this game is over. If neither of them is a seer, big deal, we aim ourselves at them anyways and we're still standing pretty well.

I hope I made a clear enough point, if I didn't I will try to clarify even more.

And if all that doesn't convince you enough.. there is no reason for Jeheinz to put himself in jeopardy like he did if he was really a bad guy. If he's wrong, he's done, nothing to it.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

As noted, you're not both wolves. One of you is the DQ.

As for DT's timing, I'm not sure I would have done it either, but with one wolf dead, and has you on the string, I can't say he was wrong to come out. We lynch you today, and if DT is telling the truth, then there is likely just one wolf left with, what 10 of us? Pretty good odds.

Aw, come on. DT's an experienced player. Why wouldn't he try to sway the vote to me and try to see who would protect me to find that last wolf and/or DQ? He supposedly knew one wolf, yet the DQ and other wolf were still out there. This is a bad play and I don't understand why people don't see it.

[mauchow]

Lots of key roles that need to make a move tonight...

A good bodyguard play is needed..
Quite possibly a move from whoever can change a vote..
Another good scan from seer..

Big day it's been.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

Aw, come on. DT's an experienced player. Why wouldn't he try to sway the vote to me and try to see who would protect me to find that last wolf and/or DQ? He supposedly knew one wolf, yet the DQ and other wolf were still out there. This is a bad play and I don't understand why people don't see it.

Hell I'm NOT an experienced player and I knew not to come out so quickly (though it was mighty tempting once I got BK so fast).

[jeheinz72]

RaidersArmy: 6 (DT, NTN, BK, Arlie, olie, CR)
Barkeep: 4 (jeheinz72, RaidersArmy, Mau, clap)

No vote from: path12, Schmidty, Farrah

Here is where we are. We know DT, BK and CR aren't moving. It doesn't sound like Arlie can be convinced. NTN I don't know, Olie seemed like she was still thinking.

IIRC, Path isn't going to be on today. Schmidty has been basically MIA.

I'm about to leave for the day, please god let's not end up with a tie here people, that's the LAST thing anyone should want, it basically gives the baddies, whoever you think they are, a free swipe at the Bride/Groom/Me/Bodyguard

[path12]

hey, lot to catch up on and I'm not going to be online much today. Can anyone give me a quick rundown?

[path12]

Ah, I see Pass was bad. Yay!

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by path12

hey, lot to catch up on and I'm not going to be online much today. Can anyone give me a quick rundown?

DT is lying about being the Seer, BK and CR are the wolves I caught as the Seer. Pass was a wolf and is dead. Vote for Barkeep.

That about sums it up.

[jeheinz72]

Basicaly Path, here's the real rundown.

DT claims to be the Seer, fingering RA (and clearing CR and NTN, IIRC).
I'm the actual seer and scanned BK (WOLF), DT (Guest, so he's really the Drama Queen or converted), and Cheif Rum (WOLF).

Since I revealed 2nd, no one is believing me and wants to wait and lynch RA first to see if DT is lying. Which is fine, that will produce the end result of us winning, but it'll severely hamper our chances at a Major win.

So you can vote for BK now to go for the Major win or you can vote for RA now just to find out tomorrow that that was the wrong thing to do.

We'll likely win either way.

Oh yeah, and a recap of Day Three's votes show them all voting together and both RA and I making illogical votes (ones that if we were bad we'd be stupid to make). They conveniently ignore these facts.

Yeah, that about sums it up.

[jeheinz72]

...and I'm gone.

Cya tomorrow folks. Godspeed good people. Make the right decision here!

[Raiders Army]

Here's another point to make: since we're conducting simulatenous day/night cycles, there is no use in the bodyguard protecting the jeheinz since he spilled the beans on the wolves left. I'm guessing that DT is counting on being protected since we won't know who's telling the truth until after the lynch/night cycle. In this respect, it leaves it wide open to hit the bride and groom tonight.

To the bodyguard: do not guard DaddyTorgo!

[Lathum]

how is everything Path?

[path12]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Basicaly Path, here's the real rundown.

DT claims to be the Seer, fingering RA (and clearing CR and NTN, IIRC).
I'm the actual seer and scanned BK (WOLF), DT (Guest, so he's really the Drama Queen or converted), and Cheif Rum (WOLF).

Since I revealed 2nd, no one is believing me and wants to wait and lynch RA first to see if DT is lying. Which is fine, that will produce the end result of us winning, but it'll severely hamper our chances at a Major win.

So you can vote for BK now to go for the Major win or you can vote for RA now just to find out tomorrow that that was the wrong thing to do.

We'll likely win either way.

Oh yeah, and a recap of Day Three's votes show them all voting together and both RA and I making illogical votes (ones that if we were bad we'd be stupid to make). They conveniently ignore these facts.

Yeah, that about sums it up.

Post counts around where the reveals went down?