07-22-2009, 10:57 PM | #601 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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I would've moved it to protect EF. I'm not familiar with EF pulling a fake seer reveal from any other game so I would've given him the benefit of the doubt and obviously would've done so when he said I was good, well, because I am.
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07-22-2009, 10:59 PM | #602 | |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
why would this hold any water, obviously the wolves knoew who is good. |
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07-22-2009, 11:01 PM | #603 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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Quote:
It would've held enough water for me to give him the benefit of the doubt, as I said before, not surefire trust. But I would've given him a day, let the real seer, if there is one, get a scan in and reveal. If there were no reveal, then I would've lynched EF that day instead of immediately. |
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07-22-2009, 11:02 PM | #604 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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PB, him naming you as good didn't help him in my book.
1 - bad voting record 2 - only claiming one view as seer because of being slutted 3 - claiming another role before claiming seer 4 - only view he had was on the other guy who was slutted besides him 5 - seer reveal was very late in the day, left himself exposed if BG isn't around during short turn-around between day/night phases That just seemed (and still seems) like quite a number of coincidences to have all come into play at the same time. Obviously he was telling the truth, but very poor luck for both him and the village. It completely sounded like crap to me. |
07-22-2009, 11:04 PM | #605 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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Quote:
All the above are true, but as we've said a lot lately, the best voting records tend to go to wolves rather than villagers. But again, I would've given him till the next day, with what I consider to be little risk. |
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07-22-2009, 11:05 PM | #606 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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But anyway, hindsight is 20/20. My vote tomorrow will definitely go for somebody that voted to lynch EF.
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07-22-2009, 11:22 PM | #607 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: St. Paul, MN
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I have a candidate to suggest (if anyone cares), but I'm going to hold off until the night phase is done.
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07-22-2009, 11:25 PM | #608 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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JAG, despite my vote on you today, I will be interested in hearing your candidate.
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07-22-2009, 11:28 PM | #609 |
Mascot
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07-22-2009, 11:42 PM | #610 | |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Rahway, NJ
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Quote:
I definitely agree with this, even though I was one of the people who voted for EF. My vote was based on some suspicions I had about the way he was posting and name-dropping. Toss in the double-reveal, and I was very suspicious. However, it seems extremely likely that someone who voted for EF is a wolf. |
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07-23-2009, 01:18 AM | #611 |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: East Lothian, Scotland
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Sorry for misreading the situation, guys - based on the information I had to work with when I voted, I honestly thought that EagleFan was a more likely wolf than ntndeacon.
This game really screws with your mind sometimes... |
07-23-2009, 01:33 AM | #612 |
Hall Of Famer
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Location: Catonsville, MD
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Results in a sec
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07-23-2009, 01:35 AM | #613 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Catonsville, MD
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The night passes uneventfully and you awaken, not fully rested, but better than you had expected. A new energy refreshens you and the morning breakfast is almost palatable.
You arrive at the school and give a fake hello to your old friends before meeting as a groupo at the furnace to see who is missing. it's nearly classtime and a few are missing. One by one they straggle in but someone is still missing. Where is Vera Cafincelli? You immediately enter the furnace room and see her backpack in the corner, rooted out, a a sign of her death. Vera Cafincelli (Lathum) was a High Schooler. Chapter 6 has ended. Chapter 7 has begun and ends at 10:00 pm
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07-23-2009, 01:38 AM | #614 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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damn
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07-23-2009, 06:09 AM | #615 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: St. Paul, MN
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Quote:
Ok, first putting this up for the sake of completion. |
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07-23-2009, 07:21 AM | #616 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: St. Paul, MN
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Alright, here's what I've got for now. The key is oddly the D2 voting for me. I still find it unlikely there isn't a wolf in the original Pass voting, but I'm leaning towards a higher percentage play at this point.
If hoops is a wolf, Jets and lerriuqs would be primary suspects (I'm excepting myself of course), with ntn and TheNorm also not looking great. But, if hoops is a villager, I don't find it likely that none of the wolves would've voted for Pass D2. That would still make Jets and lerriuqs primary suspects in my eyes. Since they would be suspects either way, to me that means the highest percentage play is going after one of them (or even better both). Looking back at D1, both had throwaway votes and gave out of game reasons for them so there's not much I can say there. Both also voted for EF yesterday. I don't have a read one way or another who is more likely, both have been mostly quiet, so I'm just picking one out of a hat. VOTE lerriuqs |
07-23-2009, 07:21 AM | #617 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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JAG, glad you posted that because it is where I was going to look today as well.
Day 1 - only two people that voted for Danny are still alive. Given three more wolves, what are the odds that no wolves voted for Danny, even as their shadow wolf? I think there are a couple of possible arguments to be made: 1.) NFG would not have put in the first vote on Danny - he is less likely to be a wolf 2.) That leaves you with TheNorm, who probably would have had other voting options available to him. Still, I think he is a better argument than NFG if you buy into the idea that the wolves would have had at least one vote on the letting vote getter on Day 1. 3.) If you don't think that the Blakekin would have had anyone on Danny, then you should be relentlessly voting for the people on Pass that day. I know that I'm not possessed, so that leaves you with Clap, Jackal, and JAG as the best options for that vote. Even if you think that the wolves would have had one vote on Danny (but not two) there is still a very high likelihood of 1+ wolf vote on Pass from Day 1. So my strong inclination is to vote there. The Day 3 vote could be significant but I don't know what to make of it jsut yet. The only note that I do have is that the three remaining people alive who voted NTN are all suspects based on my Day 1 vote review. That seems to make it a little less likely, in my mind, that NTN is a wolf. But I think there is more left to learn here than there is with Day 1, which is slowly but surely coming into focus. I recognize that I'm going to be a very serious candidate today, so for now I'll let others drive some of the discussion before putting out my vote. I'm basically looking for people to trust right now because that list is obviously very short. |
07-23-2009, 07:25 AM | #618 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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JAG, just read your post. The only problem I have is that Day 2 doesn't feel as open to me as Day 1. I've enjoyed your analysis so far this game, which makes me more likely to give you a pass for another day - barring a compelling argument being presented that makes you a clearly better candidate than the others.
But, that fact has not moved you (in my eyes) to a spot where I'm saying that there are only two non-cleared on Pass. So that is not as compelling a percentage play for me as the ones that I highlighted from Day 1. Analyzing voting records - frustrating in the short term, usually fruitful in the long term. |
07-23-2009, 07:27 AM | #619 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Also, I was slutted last night. Which is just fine with me as they did not stop me from doing anything that would have been pro-village.
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07-23-2009, 07:28 AM | #620 |
FOFC Survivor
Join Date: Apr 2002
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RRRRRRRRRRRRRRIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIINNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNG!
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07-23-2009, 07:47 AM | #621 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: St. Paul, MN
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Quote:
From your perspective I understand why it might not be as good a percentage play because you'd have to include me in the list of suspects along with Jets and lerriuqs, but if you put yourself in my shoes as a villager (and thus not knowing whether or not you're a wolf and they are potentially looking to protect you), I think you would probably come up with the same outcome. For me, voting off D1 isn't as clear, but I do agree with what you're saying for the majority of people that are left. |
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07-23-2009, 08:18 AM | #622 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: St. Paul, MN
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Quote:
I'm going to second this as well. I'd especially like to hear from PB since he is the only one fully cleared. |
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07-23-2009, 08:36 AM | #623 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: non white trash MD
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Kinda wish I was up last ngiht, I found hoops dismissal of Efs reveal as kinda off. yes it was a bad play, but shit happens!
vote hoops
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07-23-2009, 08:36 AM | #624 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: non white trash MD
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I can be persuaded to move, but hey weve already lost the sleuth and JR sleuth! so....
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07-23-2009, 09:14 AM | #625 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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07-23-2009, 10:42 AM | #626 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: non white trash MD
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this is a very vibrant day!
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07-23-2009, 10:44 AM | #627 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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I know what we need to kick things up a notch!!!
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07-23-2009, 10:44 AM | #628 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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When I wake up in the morning
And the alarm gives out a warning And I don't think I ever make it on time By the time I grab my books And I give myself a look I'm at the corner just in time to see the bus fly by It's alright 'coz I'm saved by the bell If the teacher pops a test I know I'm in a mess And my dog ate all my homework last night Right alone in my chair She won't know that I'm there If I can hand it in tomorrow it will be alright It's alright 'coz I'm saved by the bell It's alright 'coz I'm saved by the It's alright 'coz I'm saved by the It's alright 'coz I'm saved by the bell Last edited by Danny : 07-23-2009 at 10:49 AM. |
07-23-2009, 10:45 AM | #629 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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RING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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07-23-2009, 10:54 AM | #630 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
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oh kelly kapowski
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07-23-2009, 11:01 AM | #631 | |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Saskatchewan
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Quote:
Um...I didn't have a Day 1 throwaway vote...I couldn't get on in time to vote that day. So are you analyzing? Or simply feeding the wolves? I voted for Pass and EF - so what? I've seen many villagers that tend to have very poor voting records and wolves that have had some of the best voting records...You're looking at the wrong one if you're looking at me - that you can be sure of. |
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07-23-2009, 11:10 AM | #632 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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07-23-2009, 11:22 AM | #633 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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Alright, so here's where I'm at right now:
I'll start with my perennial favorite, Hoops. He has voted three times to lynch known villagers, albeit once he can claim self-defense, except that he voted for that same person the day before. Hoops was enslutted on the heels of EF (known good) and myself (known good). I'm not necessarily sure that helps him much. Oh, and yeah, if you haven't heard, Hoops and I have been on the same side only three times. For JAG, basically see above (minus the enslutting and the history). The Norm, nfg, and Lathum- I have to imagine that at least one wolf voted for Danny on day 1. Lathum got a quick trust grab by making his switch but that also could be a very good wolf play (remember, he is the world's greatest wolf). The best voting record of my five but the best voters are oftentimes wolves. nfg cast the first vote on Danny but his other two votes are for Hoops, an as-of-yet unknown entity. Again, I think sacrificing Danny, an unknowing wolf, isn't a loss to the wolves as he wouldn't have been a ton of help other than simply #'s. The Norm matches simply as another Danny voter, a no vote day 2, and then a vote for an unknown day 3. The Norm is probably at the bottom of my five suspect list. I'm going with one of the following three: Hoops, JAG, or Lathum. |
07-23-2009, 11:24 AM | #634 |
Grizzled Veteran
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Location: DeKalb, IL
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07-23-2009, 11:34 AM | #635 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: non white trash MD
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PB.... you do realise lathum is dead right?
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07-23-2009, 11:37 AM | #636 |
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Location: Catonsville, MD
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Lathum is laughing right now
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07-23-2009, 11:38 AM | #637 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Who wants to tell PB?
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07-23-2009, 11:39 AM | #638 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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07-23-2009, 11:46 AM | #639 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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F***, how the hell did Lathum die? Great, just great. Sorry Lathum, you can see how much credit I give you as a wolf.
So Hoops or JAG... |
07-23-2009, 11:47 AM | #640 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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Guess it helps if I actually, I dunno, read the night action. Hmmm, wish Spike was here, I have a feeling my grades will suffer w/o her.
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07-23-2009, 11:48 AM | #641 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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Between Hoops and JAG, I do then think that Lathum's death puts a ton of heat on to Hoops. By choosing to kill Lathum, I think the wolves may expect a flock to vote out Hoops. Let me start here, while I mull something else over:
vote JAG |
07-23-2009, 11:50 AM | #642 |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Saskatchewan
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07-23-2009, 11:50 AM | #643 |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Saskatchewan
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vote JAG
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07-23-2009, 11:52 AM | #644 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Mar 2004
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So i think its me or norm the:P...
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07-23-2009, 11:55 AM | #645 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Mar 2004
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That was in jest to PB since he thinks one person on danny was a wolf. Me and norm are the only ones left. Honestly, some people trust me more because of that and some trust me less.... If you look at the history it was obviously a D1 throw away vote, At the time I had to leave for work(which I announced) I couldnt have changed things and likely wouldnt have. Danny was just as good as anyone else.
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07-23-2009, 11:55 AM | #646 |
Mascot
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Location: Chicago, IL
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07-23-2009, 11:56 AM | #647 |
Head Coach
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07-23-2009, 11:58 AM | #648 |
Grizzled Veteran
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Location: DeKalb, IL
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07-23-2009, 11:59 AM | #649 |
Mascot
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Chicago, IL
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Don't get me wrong, Kelly was great but something about Lisa just topped her. As for voting I have no idea since after analyzing how things went leading up to EF's ousting I was going to vote Lathum today. |
07-23-2009, 12:00 PM | #650 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Mar 2004
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Now on to todays vote. I threw out a throw away vote yesterday because I thought both NTN and EF are good. I still think hoops is a wolf and sticking by that. He has been shady in voting. He hasnt argued well for himself if really at all. I think since the vote wasnt focused on him yesterday he kinda went UTR a little. This is my best prospect and I wont vote for someone who I think is good so JAG stays. I really like JAG, not just in RP but he seems legit. His voting record isnt worse than hoops. Im going hoops...
VOTE HOOPSGUY |
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