WW CXXXIX - The Red Death II - GAME OVER, SERVANTS WIN

[Lathum]

Vote Dubb

I think it would do us well to keep things close between Dubb, Saldana and Dzzilla

this vote is subject to movement to Saldana once I decided how bad I wanna piss her off.

[saldana]

for instance, this sequence has my radar pinged, although i will admit what made me go back and look for his activity is his vote on me.

Originally Posted by day one vote count

((bhlloy reveals as keeper)) 275
bhlloy unvotes dubb 275
bhlloy votes mauboy 275
jackal unvotes bhlloy 281
jackal votes mauboy 283
ef unvotes danny 287
ef votes mauboy 287
jackal unvotes mauboy 296
jackal votes J23 296

jackal was fine with his mau vote when he cast it to begin with, and even noted that mau would be back half an hour before deadline so he would have plenty of time to reveal...there is then nothing really in terms of analysis, but jackal still felt the need to change off of mau, who was rapidly gaining traction.

vote mauboy

[Grammaticus]

Saldana is a female?

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Grammaticus

Saldana is a female?

Hot

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by dubb93

I'm not sure what you hint? And if you did hint something how could it be useful to him? I mean short of someone coming out and saying "Yo dawg I plan on doin sum kill'n tonight" I'm unsure of what could help him that we could hint.

I understand this response much better this morning. after reading the rules again. I had 1st assumed the detective was the seerer. I guess my original quote should have been who do we suggest the adept to look at....sorry my bad. I see the detective is really just a watcher hench your sharp quip back at me. I was thinking the detective was a seerer and not just a "watcher"...my bad.

[Chief Rum]

OOC:

Hey everyone,

Came down with some sort of stomach bug last night, which pretty much wiped out my night.

I'm in work right now trying to finish a project and then I am headed home to recover. I probably won't do much reading here until I get home. I'm only on Page 6 of 13 pages of reading, too, so I am a looooooong way behind.

So if I am quiet for much of the day, that's why. I'll check in later. Thanks.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Lathum

this vote is subject to movement to Saldana once I decided how bad I wanna piss her off.

guess you dont wanna talk about that chris johnson trade anymore, do you, dbag

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by saldana

guess you dont wanna talk about that chris johnson trade anymore, do you, dbag

Not with Brandon Jacobs being the man. Nice loss by 1 yard last night, btw.

[Abe Sargent]

Dammit, I did it again. Sorry, I'll delete my mech post.

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by saldana

for instance, this sequence has my radar pinged, although i will admit what made me go back and look for his activity is his vote on me.



jackal was fine with his mau vote when he cast it to begin with, and even noted that mau would be back half an hour before deadline so he would have plenty of time to reveal...there is then nothing really in terms of analysis, but jackal still felt the need to change off of mau, who was rapidly gaining traction.

vote mauboy

Oh really? Wouldn't we test the theory by voting the voter instead of votee?

A stretch regardless and it will not help your case today and probably gets attention drawn to you.

[mauchow]

vote dubb

The defensive post to me when I voted him. My gut feeling on his post when he switched off lathum to bhlloy. And finally a late vote on j23.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by dzilla77

The problem with waiting until almost deadline is that several other people are doing the same thing, and it often screws things up.

I stand by my action. If someone wants to tie it back up to create the confusion, that's more of a wolfish action than mine might be.

Originally Posted by dzilla77

If ntn is a villager - tying it up again is a wolf move. That sentence right there should give you comfort that I am a villager, because I had no idea he was a wolf.

The problem is you didn't really say that, you just said that if someone voted NTN to tie it back up, to create confusion, would be a wolf move. The problem with that is we can't lynch NTN without tying it back up. I think this was your play to try and end the NTN voting run. The only thing that gives me pause is I don't see why, if you were concerned about a tie vote, you didn't put it on J23. I can only guess it is because that would have brought you even more heat.

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Oh really? Wouldn't we test the theory by voting the voter instead of votee?

A stretch regardless and it will not help your case today and probably gets attention drawn to you.

I'm not following what Saldana was trying to do there either, not sure how showing how people are voting for you is any condemnation on your part. Frankly I can't see why our votes are not all poured onto, spread out of course, not a runaway, either Dubb, Saldana, or DZ today.

That said I don't think Saldana gets that defensive as a wolf, could happen, but to me, even with NTN having cunning, it is just too much heat to put on yourself for a day one kill. I'm really torn about voting Dubb or DZ as I'm not high on either as being a villager, the thing that gets me into voting DZ though is coming off of NTN after RA had shown up and could have cast a deciding vote. Then not only after coming off when question making a comment how the move was, in essence, to not make confusion who our lynch choice should be. I get the whole we can't all come off the tie at the end, but if you would have waited 10 minutes, and did it 15 minutes to deadline you would have seen the vote was no longer tied.

Vote DZ

[Commo_Soldier]

Current Tally - As of post 612
DZ() - RA(568), Gramm(599), Commo(612)
Saldana() - Jackal(593)
Dubb() - Lathum(601), Mauboy(611)
Mauboy() - Saldana(602)

Unvotes
None

Still to Vote
CrimsonFox
Danny
Autumn
Zinto
MrBug708
J23
Narcizo
Thomkal
dzilla77
Chief Rum
mckerney
EagleFan
SnDvls
dubb93
hoopsguy

[Commo_Soldier]

Oops, forgot to put in the number of votes next to the names, early enough to still read it easy, but 3-1-2-1.

[hoopsguy]

Not sure what I'll be doing for the vote today, but it will almost certainly NOT be going to someone who voted NTN yesterday. Sure that might lead to missing on someone who was converted last night, but I'll take my chances for at least one day chasing an "original" wolf.

So that rules out mauboy, among people I've seen with votes (anyone have a vote count). That also removes the person I voted for on Day 1.

[hoopsguy]

Ask and you shall receive. Thanks, Commo.

[dzilla77]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

The problem is you didn't really say that, you just said that if someone voted NTN to tie it back up, to create confusion, would be a wolf move. The problem with that is we can't lynch NTN without tying it back up. I think this was your play to try and end the NTN voting run. The only thing that gives me pause is I don't see why, if you were concerned about a tie vote, you didn't put it on J23. I can only guess it is because that would have brought you even more heat.




I'm not following what Saldana was trying to do there either, not sure how showing how people are voting for you is any condemnation on your part. Frankly I can't see why our votes are not all poured onto, spread out of course, not a runaway, either Dubb, Saldana, or DZ today.

That said I don't think Saldana gets that defensive as a wolf, could happen, but to me, even with NTN having cunning, it is just too much heat to put on yourself for a day one kill. I'm really torn about voting Dubb or DZ as I'm not high on either as being a villager, the thing that gets me into voting DZ though is coming off of NTN after RA had shown up and could have cast a deciding vote. Then not only after coming off when question making a comment how the move was, in essence, to not make confusion who our lynch choice should be. I get the whole we can't all come off the tie at the end, but if you would have waited 10 minutes, and did it 15 minutes to deadline you would have seen the vote was no longer tied.

Vote DZ

Its clear that your mind is made up and you're trying to sell your reasoning to the rest of the group. I am a villager. When that is revealed by the cleansing flame, you will begin to rise on the list of suspicious characters.

I will withhold my vote for now, as it will likely be for self preservation (if that's even possible).

[Narcizo]

Of course the fact that it's know that there are conversions out there makes it really unlikely that an original wolf voted for NTN in my mind. Just what would the wolf hope to gain by throwing his vote on NTN? People voting him later as a possible "obvious" conversion. I guess this is what makes me take askance at dubb's stance this morning.

I think it bears thinking about who the wolves would likely pick as a convert. I'm not so sure that they would automatically pick an NTN voter, because that's what everyone would expect them to do. [/Vizzini] Were I a wolf I'd probably go with an experienced player but not one of the obvious choices of conversion.

Bah! Who am I kidding. If I were a wolf I'd convert Hoops in a flash and damn the consequences. I want a good excuse to PM-bomb him.

[Abe Sargent]

Hey bitches

[Zinto]

I am more than likely going to look at early Danny, and Dubb voters along with people who voted for anyone not named ntn after Bhlloy revealed. Like everyone else thinks, I believe it is the best place to start. If there is not as many wolves as usual I doubt they could influence the vote greatly so that is something to keep in mind.

[Autumn]

Catching up after class. First of all I just want to say I'm liking all the good arguments out there. It feels like good old fashioned WW with a lot of people getting involved in the analysis.

I actually like what Saldana found there with Jackal. It is indeed interesting that Jackal jumped from Mauboy to J23 just when Mauboy was getting heat. And if I remember correctly that was just after I made a comment wondering why suddenly Mauboy was getting a lot of votes instead of J23, when J23 had been the guy in the lead behind Bhlloy. If Mau is a wolf, Jackal may have been using that as a convenient excuse to move off of him when it was getting.

Alternately my original thought, and the reason I stayed with J23, was that it seemed like J23, who was the natural person to move to after bhlloy - being in the lead, being present, and having admitted to having no role - was not getting any votes. That makes me want to look at J23 again. Obviously these two theories are incompatible. It would mean a J23 wolf paired with at least one of those Mauboy voters.

A possible wolf/wolf runoff was also a reason dzilla might have not voted J23 after unvoting. But I always try to throw out theories that suggest I now know all of the wolves.

[Autumn]

This stretch of voting is also interesting. Danny is the first to kind of push NTN out there as a non-bhlloy option after the reveal. Which would be a point where the wolves would need to gear into action.

danny votes ntn 297
CF unvotes mauboy 306
CF votes J23 306
Lahtum unvotes danny 310
lathum votes J23 310
commo unvotes bhlloy 318
mckerney unvotes bhlloy 329
mckerney votes mauboy 329
commo votes ntn 334
J23 unvotes bhlloy 352
J23 votes mauboy 354
bhlloy unvotes mauboy 357
bhlloy votes ntn 357

CF, Lathum, Mckerney, J23 all continue to go elsewhere than NTN. Danny and Commo look good for their votes here.

I would look among those four above, or based on that earlier series of voting, possibly look at EF or Jackal.

[Autumn]

Day 2 so far

RA votes Dzilla 568
jackal votes saldana 594
grammaticus votes dzilla 599
lathum votes dubb 601
saldana votes mauboy 602
mauboy votes dubb 611
commo votes dzilla 612


dzilla - RA, grammaticus, commo
saldana - jackal
dubb - lathum, mauboy
mauboy - saldana

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

I'm actually surprised someone died tonight.
I don't know the rules of these monsters.

But being able to nightkill AND convert in the same night sounds REALLY powerful and not something I would expect.

Maybe they tried to convert but the only option for the Keeper was to kill him?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Of course the fact that it's know that there are conversions out there makes it really unlikely that an original wolf voted for NTN in my mind. Just what would the wolf hope to gain by throwing his vote on NTN? People voting him later as a possible "obvious" conversion. I guess this is what makes me take askance at dubb's stance this morning.

I think it bears thinking about who the wolves would likely pick as a convert. I'm not so sure that they would automatically pick an NTN voter, because that's what everyone would expect them to do. [/Vizzini] Were I a wolf I'd probably go with an experienced player but not one of the obvious choices of conversion.

Bah! Who am I kidding. If I were a wolf I'd convert Hoops in a flash and damn the consequences. I want a good excuse to PM-bomb him.

Does the fact there was a kill last night suggest there was not a conversion?

Also keep in mind there was a lot of late movement. If there was a convert the wolves may have had that order in prior to knowing who was going to be lynched.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by mckerney

Maybe they tried to convert but the only option for the Keeper was to kill him?

I think it's also possible that their night action has a % chance to convert, and if that fails, kills. We've seen that in other games. So a kill may just mean a failed conversion. But I think in this game it's also possible there's a possibility of both in one night.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

I'd really like to hear from Zinto, mckerney, Bug, Thomkal, and Raiders today.

All were mostly absent for various reasons, some unknown. Just where your voting thoughts were for the day and thoughts of our current situation.

Can't say there was a whole lot of reasoning going into my day one votes. Yesterday my vote on bhlloy was randomly picked from the people who had votes on them. After his reveal I switch to mauboy on as a guess on the candidates other than bhlloy.

[Narcizo]

I'd love to think that it's wolf-wolf but the pessimist in me just can't see us being that lucky.

Unsurprisingly I'm drawn to looking at the people who kept/have been keeping a low profile. I realise that it's pretty passé to think that wolves are going to keep under the radar because they're wolves and people are going to try and be themselves whatever they are but in a game this size it's going to be very easy for people to glide along without having to contribute - people like Zinto, mckerney, Bug and EagleFan.

[Danny]

My gut ready today is that Autumn is a wolf.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I'd love to think that it's wolf-wolf but the pessimist in me just can't see us being that lucky.

Unsurprisingly I'm drawn to looking at the people who kept/have been keeping a low profile. I realise that it's pretty passé to think that wolves are going to keep under the radar because they're wolves and people are going to try and be themselves whatever they are but in a game this size it's going to be very easy for people to glide along without having to contribute - people like Zinto, mckerney, Bug and EagleFan.

Who is on this list? Mckerney? RA? I might look here for my vote as well as I think there is a decent chance the other wolf(ves) are staying under the radar.

[Narcizo]

In a bit of a quandary about who to vote then as I don't want to make a(nother) throwaway vote but I'm not really liking a vote on any of the current candidates. I'd normally analysed stuff to death by this stage but I haven't had the time today.

[Danny]

I don't like the current candidates either, so throw out some names and lets discuss.

[Danny]

BTW, i full believe Dubb would have buried ntn if was a wolf (who knew ntn was also)

[Danny]

Vote Autumn

[Danny]

This vote doesn't necessarily need to stick here, but I am laying it down anyway. He's not one of the players with a solid day 1 vote and I have a gut feeling about him. Its early and this could easily chance though.

[Autumn]

Boy, deja vu all over again. Remember how well that last gut read went, Danny? lol

I can't fault a vote on me, anyone who makes a last minute switch to a wolf that doesn't really change the vote is going to get a look, for sure. I don't think I make that move if I'm a wolf, but still, it's legit.

I think we benefit more from seeing who didn't vote NTN but could of, though. We have quite a few of those to go by.

[Autumn]

dola

I think prime wolf voting time is not anywhere near the deadline. When I'm a wolf I feel like the day is done an hour or two before deadline, as making any moves then is just too dangerous. So I like to look back at more "mid day" moves to save wolves.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I'd love to think that it's wolf-wolf but the pessimist in me just can't see us being that lucky.

Unsurprisingly I'm drawn to looking at the people who kept/have been keeping a low profile. I realise that it's pretty passé to think that wolves are going to keep under the radar because they're wolves and people are going to try and be themselves whatever they are but in a game this size it's going to be very easy for people to glide along without having to contribute - people like Zinto, mckerney, Bug and EagleFan.

I dont have much to add. But I think Autumn's list of people who switched votes and avoided ntn originally, is a good list of candidates.

Why am I always on your radar?

[saldana]

Mau, in response to why i voted you instead of Jackal, when my premise was that he jumped off you to change the direction of the momentum is actually rather easy.

If i voted Jackal, it would just be converted into a "he voted for me so now he is being defensive and trying to make crap up"

so instead, i go to the person who i see as having benefited most from his manipulations yesterday, which is you, who placed their vote in the most perfect spot for a wolf to hide in the NTN...you werent early or late...you got in when you had to make a choice and timed it very well to blend in to the crowd.

[Zinto]

I am wondering why no one has talked about ntn voting for Mau early as being a good point or a bad point for Mau. If you believe as some have said that the Red Death wouldn't place an early vote on each other since they could just convert later in the game then Mau looks better but if you think that the Red Death would then Mau looks slightly worse.

[Zinto]

I guess my question for Danny is why did you pick J23 along with ntn? Is it something you care to share at this venture?

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I'd love to think that it's wolf-wolf but the pessimist in me just can't see us being that lucky.

Unsurprisingly I'm drawn to looking at the people who kept/have been keeping a low profile. I realise that it's pretty passé to think that wolves are going to keep under the radar because they're wolves and people are going to try and be themselves whatever they are but in a game this size it's going to be very easy for people to glide along without having to contribute - people like Zinto, mckerney, Bug and EagleFan.

A big chance I may slip under the radar not on purpose though more of a case that school is slowly beginning to kick my butt.

[Zinto]

Hopefully I can get a couple hours each day to delve into the game and post my thoughts though(other then dumb Mondays)

[dubb93]

So Danny. Why Autumn? What about J23? Why J23?

I understand Autumn's vote last night looked terrible. I am also pretty sure it is a move I have seen made before as a wolf. That is probably why it looks so terrible this time around.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Why am I always on your radar?

My radar normally has people who I don't think have contributed much the day before on it for the first few days. :shurg:

I'm not getting Danny's beef with Autumn - seems that he's been talking sense to me so far. Given lack of presence and dodgy voting record I'm going to

Vote Mckerney

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by dzilla77

Its clear that your mind is made up and you're trying to sell your reasoning to the rest of the group. I am a villager. When that is revealed by the cleansing flame, you will begin to rise on the list of suspicious characters.

I will withhold my vote for now, as it will likely be for self preservation (if that's even possible).

I'm in no way set on anyone, but my gut is worst on you now. I'll relook over everything when I get home two hours to deadline and adjust as needed, but to best gauge things I want to at least have a vote in during the day.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Zinto

I am wondering why no one has talked about ntn voting for Mau early as being a good point or a bad point for Mau. If you believe as some have said that the Red Death wouldn't place an early vote on each other since they could just convert later in the game then Mau looks better but if you think that the Red Death would then Mau looks slightly worse.

I said last night that I think NTN's vote on Mauboy is inconclusive, for the reasons you state, that it's early enough to simply be a wolf on wolf vote.

[Narcizo]

For what it's worth (nothing, I'll readily agree) if I had to vote for a current candidate I'd probably plump for mau. He said something about me not looming at him yesterday which just struck me as being the sort of thing a wolf-mau might say. But apart from that I've not got that much to pin on him. But despite my doubts about dubb's arguments I'm not really seeing him being a wolf. Ditto Saldana and I think it's quite a stretch seeing Dzilla doing what he did as a wolf. Oh and I'm not seeing the argument against Autumn. Well, ok I am but I really don't see it as be enough to warrant a vote at this stage.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Zinto

I am wondering why no one has talked about ntn voting for Mau early as being a good point or a bad point for Mau. If you believe as some have said that the Red Death wouldn't place an early vote on each other since they could just convert later in the game then Mau looks better but if you think that the Red Death would then Mau looks slightly worse.

I think its possible ntn could have voted for a fellow Servant early on sure, but as a good reason to vote mauboy today? Not so much in my opinion. Keep an eye on Mauboy and where/when he votes? absolutely.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Autumn

This stretch of voting is also interesting. Danny is the first to kind of push NTN out there as a non-bhlloy option after the reveal. Which would be a point where the wolves would need to gear into action.

danny votes ntn 297
CF unvotes mauboy 306
CF votes J23 306
Lahtum unvotes danny 310
lathum votes J23 310
commo unvotes bhlloy 318
mckerney unvotes bhlloy 329
mckerney votes mauboy 329
commo votes ntn 334
J23 unvotes bhlloy 352
J23 votes mauboy 354
bhlloy unvotes mauboy 357
bhlloy votes ntn 357

CF, Lathum, Mckerney, J23 all continue to go elsewhere than NTN. Danny and Commo look good for their votes here.

I would look among those four above, or based on that earlier series of voting, possibly look at EF or Jackal.

I actually find that part of yesterday's vote potentially the most valuable. Let's face it there's a reason for a Servant being an early vote on ntn, and a late vote but they are more like hunches without more proof.

But danny bringing ntn into the realm of possible lynched with less than 2 hours to go and the movement we saw immediately after that is where I think a Servant potentially could be. I go back and forth on it because I'm not sure ntn really was a big threat to be lynched at the point of the votes right after. Something to keep in mind as we go on. Mckerney making mauboy the second choice to J23 (I think, correct me if I'm wrong) is the most suspicious vote there if you want to believe in this theory.