Israeli-Hamas War (Oct 2023)

[bob]

As seen online:

Wonder if there will be a major military movement by Israel into southern Lebanon now that so many of the Hezbollah leadership are seriously injured and likely to be out of action for a long time, if not permanently.

[Ghost Econ]

I'm not gonna cry for Hezbollah 's leadership... but this is literally the definition of terrorism, right?

[Brian Swartz]

I'd say that depends on who it targeted. If it was as widespread as it appears to be, then I would agree that it is a terrorist act.

[RainMaker]

PETN is pretty crazy stuff. Don't need a lot to make a big bang. Seems like a lot of eye injuries so I'm wondering if they had them beep before exploding so the person would have it at eye level. Some of the videos out there are wild (this one isn't as gory).




Originally Posted by bob

As seen online:

Wonder if there will be a major military movement by Israel into southern Lebanon now that so many of the Hezbollah leadership are seriously injured and likely to be out of action for a long time, if not permanently.

I highly doubt it. Their military isn't good at conventional warfare and Hezbollah is pretty tough because they're so mobile. The tactic they've used in the past is to just launch missiles at Beirut and hope it puts enough pressure on Hezbollah.

Unlike Hamas, Hezbollah cares about civilian casualties in Lebanon because they're trying to be a legitimate political party. So the tactic of killing civilians has worked. I don't see why Israel would take on a much more riskier attack unless the US was sending in forces too.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Edward64

@atocep. You seem to know more about these things than regular folks.

There was one time when the government was asking Apple to break the encryption/password on the iPhone but Apple refused. It always seemed weird to me that the government couldn't use a super computer (or something) to hack it. Thoughts on whether the iPhone encryption/password etc. can be hacked?

For AES-256, it's impossible to crack. Without running the numbers, I'd guess it'd take billions of years and require more energy than we can fathom to do it.

Now the other way is to simply guess the passcode which is much easier. But Apple has something built in that will erase the contents of the phone after 10 unsuccessful attempts. The story is that an Australian firm (or hackers) figured out an exploit with a Mozilla app he had on his phone and chained it to some other exploits to gain access to the iPhone's processor. This allowed them to guess the passcodes infinitely without it deleting the contents of the phone. Supposedly the FBI paid like a million dollars for this.

Whether that's true is up for debate. Some think Apple wrote a backdoor that they couldn't disclose publicly and so the Australian hacker story was concocted as cover. We know that the FBI lied a lot in their legal briefs, so I think anything they learned they're going to keep close to their vest. All we know is they figured out something.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I'd say that depends on who it targeted. If it was as widespread as it appears to be, then I would agree that it is a terrorist act.

I'm leaning towards disagreeing with you.

FWIW, there is no consensus on the definition per wiki. Some notes ...

Definition of terrorism - Wikipedia

There is no consensus, scholarly or legal, on the definition of terrorism.[1][2][3]

Various legal systems and government agencies use different definitions of terrorism, and governments have been reluctant to formulate an agreed-upon legally-binding definition.

But here's the UN version

The United Nations General Assembly condemned terrorist acts by using the following political description of terrorism in December 1994 (GA Res. 49/60):[11]

Criminal acts intended or calculated to provoke a state of terror in the general public, a group of persons or particular persons for political purposes are in any circumstance unjustifiable, whatever the considerations of a political, philosophical, ideological, racial, ethnic, religious or any other nature that may be invoked to justify them.

I think the key words are "general public" and "political purposes".

Yes, there very likely were some regular civilians hurt but the operation was clearly against the Hezbollah organization which has been in a military conflict with Israel.

At the very least, I would like to read more on civilians injured before making a final decision on this.

FWIW there was an interesting thought in reddit. What if the pager had gone off in a commercial airline? I doubt the signal could get to a plane at 30,000 ft but what if it was just taking off or landing? Don't know but assume Israelis factored that in.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

PETN is pretty crazy stuff. Don't need a lot to make a big bang. Seems like a lot of eye injuries so I'm wondering if they had them beep before exploding so the person would have it at eye level. Some of the videos out there are wild (this one isn't as gory).

You have think that is exactly what they did. They are saying the Iranian ambassador lost one eye and may lose both. He had to have been looking at the pager when it went off. I guess that is how they will justify this. They targeted the message to the Hezbollah network that Hezbollah was using to coordinate and fund attacks. Then Hezbollah will show how many pagers went off from doctors and civilians that aren't connected at all with their military arm and the number of children and innocent civilians injured. And around and around it goes.

[GrantDawg]

They are saying round two may be happening now with two-way radios and cell phones.

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[dubb93]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

They are saying round two may be happening now with two-way radios and cell phones.

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CNN is reporting radios are exploding. No mention of cell phones.

[Lathum]

Does Trump use a pager?

[GrantDawg]

"CNN is reporting radios are exploding. No mention of cell phones."
It is more than that. There was even a fingerprint pad used to access a building that exploded.

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[GrantDawg]

Dola: It also seems that solar energy systems have exploded. However they did, it looks like Israel infiltrated their whole electronics supplier.

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[Edward64]

I get remote detonation with beepers but how do you coordinate radios to blow up?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I get remote detonation with beepers but how do you coordinate radios to blow up?

Jewish space lasers. Obviously.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I get remote detonation with beepers but how do you coordinate radios to blow up?

Signal on a radio frequency? Isn't that how pagers or really any non-wired product communicates, on a dedicated frequency? You have dedicated radio bands for certain devices. I imagine these are digital two-way radios, not like old analogue radios with tubes, so they would have some sort of circuitry and chips to receive and process data. Two way radios are also commonly used in detonators, just like pagers or cell phones.

[RainMaker]

If they've infiltrated the manufacturing of these to put explosives inside, they could probably put in some kind of remote detonator too.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

If they've infiltrated the manufacturing of these to put explosives inside, they could probably put in some kind of remote detonator too.

It is what makes this so crazy, and really so scary. How was the explosive introduced? How was it connected? What was the trigger exactly? PETN is normally used as a detonator, so it just really needed a signal to set off an electric charge for it to blow. Was the explosive part of the circuit board? The case? Maybe the battery insulation?
It is mind-boogling just how dangerous a booby-trap like this could be.

[RainMaker]

Yeah, the whole thing is pretty crazy and a sophisticated operation. There's a few outlets trying to figure out where the pagers were made but can't get a solid answer. The Taiwanese company said it was made by a company in Europe they license to. This lead them to Hungary but the government there said there is no manufacturing at the facility in question. And the walkie-talkies were made by a Japanese company, although that particular model was discontinued years ago.

It's a pretty scary attack, especially with reports that it's extending to solar panels and other devices. You have to hope other terrorists don't pick up on this. While unlikely to do it at such a large scale, who is to say this couldn't be replicated by rigging the supply at a single cell phone store? The goal is to spread fear and I can't think of anything scarier than not knowing if your electronics devices will just explode one day.

Also this reminds me of that scene in Law Abiding Citizen. It's stuff right out of the movies.

[RainMaker]

NY Times reporting that the walkie-talkies had more explosives in it and were like bombs.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/18/w...xplosives.html

[Edward64]

Supposedly how the pagers were rigged

An expert told the Associated Press that the pagers received a message that caused them to vibrate in a way that required someone to press buttons to stop it. That action appears to have triggered the explosion.

[Edward64]

NYT reports what happened in the "supply chain".

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/18/w...hezbollah.html

By all appearances, B.A.C. Consulting was a Hungary-based company that was under contract to produce the devices on behalf of a Taiwanese company, Gold Apollo. In fact, it was part of an Israeli front, according to three intelligence officers briefed on the operation. They said at least two other shell companies were created as well to mask the real identities of the people creating the pagers: Israeli intelligence officers.

B.A.C. did take on ordinary clients, for which it produced a range of ordinary pagers. But the only client that really mattered was Hezbollah, and its pagers were far from ordinary. Produced separately, they contained batteries laced with the explosive PETN, according to the three intelligence officers.

The pagers began shipping to Lebanon in the summer of 2022 in small numbers, but production was quickly ramped up after Mr. Nasrallah denounced cellphones.

[RainMaker]

It sounds like they moved up the date of the attack because they feared people in Lebanon had figured out the devices were compromised. That makes sense since if you had this kind of control over the device, you likely had some kind of data mining going on with them too. It seems like it'd be far more valuable to use as spy gear than just a device to maim. But the terror part may have been what they were going for.

It does seem like these devices were used by civilians too. There are some pretty horrific videos of them exploding in hospitals as they seem to be used by a lot of healthcare workers.

I'm wondering if there was some kind of geolocation functionality on them too. It seems like if these exploded outside Lebanon, it could cause some issues. Or if one went off while on a commercial aircraft. I'd have to think there would be something that prevented devices in certain areas from exploding.

[GrantDawg]

Good questions. My guess there wasn't any kind of geo tracking on them. I believe that geo tracking can be detected, and that would have been a giveaway. Maybe they isolated where the detonation signal could reach? I would think that would be simpler.

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[RainMaker]

Good point. Do pagers even work at 30,000 ft? Genuine question as I don't think I've seen anyone use one outside of doctors in forever.

[GrantDawg]

I don't think they would. They use a RF radio signal at very high frequency. I knew it couldn't be like a regular cell signal because I used pagers for work long before cell phones were common. They have fantastic coverage on the ground, but it probably ly doesn't work very well in flight.

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[Edward64]

Pretty sure it wouldn't work at 30k, but how about just as plane was taking off or landing?

[Edward64]

Another strike. Redditors are pretty optimistic that IDF got him but not yet confirmed.

I remember CNN scrolling names of the Marines lost in the Beirut bombing. Apparently, this guy had a major role in it ... so good riddance.

Just a moment...

The target of the Israeli airstrike in Lebanon’s capital Beirut a short while ago was Ibrahim Aqil, security sources tell Israeli media.

Aqil sits on the Jihad Council, Hezbollah’s top military body.

He has also been wanted by the United States for his role in the 1983 bombing of a US Marines barracks in Beirut, as well as directing the taking of American and German hostages in Lebanon in the 1980s.

The US had placed a $7 million bounty on Aqil.

Seems that Hezbollah's OpSec has more holes than Swiss cheese. You'd think this guy's location would be closely guarded secret

[RainMaker]

The conflict is definitely expanding. Bombing of Beirut suburbs on top of the terror attacks this week. Strong moves into Jenin and increased activity in Rafah. And we have bombings in Syria and Yemen.

Feels like we're on the verge of a regional war sooner rather than later. That turns the election on its head which may be the intended goal. Don't feel good about any of this.


https://x.com/DropSiteNews/status/1837179559487193260

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Pretty sure it wouldn't work at 30k, but how about just as plane was taking off or landing?

I'm not sure but it's an interesting question. Maybe planes have something that blocks certain signals? Or maybe they had some geolocation on them that they can prevent ones within a certain distance of an airport from exploding? We'll probably find out more down the road.

There were no reports of them going off on a plane which is either lucky or by design. If one had gone off, you'd think that would change air travel around the world forever.

[GrantDawg]

Hezbollah confirmed the strike killed Ibrahim Aqil.

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[Edward64]

I caught up on Paramount's SEAL Team last night. There was one episode where the team was at a bar and they all got paged on their old fashion pagers.

I bet there was a check of everyone's pager after what happened. Can you imagine if something like that happened against the US ... many/most of US Tier 1 operators crippled at one time.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I caught up on Paramount's SEAL Team last night. There was one episode where the team was at a bar and they all got paged on their old fashion pagers.

I bet there was a check of everyone's pager after what happened. Can you imagine if something like that happened against the US ... many/most of US Tier 1 operators crippled at one time.

It is a good point. We talk about the extremist groups using pagers because of their advantages, but I think probably military's all over use them for the same reasons (less traceable, better signal coverage, etc.).

[RainMaker]

War appears imminent and should make this election very interesting. Have to imagine it will consume our attention in October and may make all the other stuff irrelevant.

US sends more troops to Middle East as tensions rise between Israel and Hezbollah | AP News

[dubb93]

Thankful that the missile shot at Israel’s Mossad HQ in Tel Aviv was intercepted or the world may look quite a bit different today.

[Edward64]

I think odds have gone up there’ll be an invasion. After a point, the ‘war weariness’ will have to kick in but it seems we are a long ways from that.

I am interested to see the scale & degree of Iran’s reaction.

Israel tells its troops to prepare for a possible ground operation in Lebanon | AP News

Israel is preparing for a possible ground operation in Lebanon, its army chief said Wednesday as Hezbollah fired dozens of rockets across the border and a missile aimed at Tel Aviv that was the militant group’s deepest strike yet.

Addressing troops on the northern border, Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi said Israel’s punishing airstrikes this week were designed to ”prepare the ground for your possible entry and to continue degrading Hezbollah.”

[RainMaker]

More first hand accounts of the pager attack.

Just a moment...

[Edward64]

Some excitement from Israeli redditors that Nasrallah was targeted today. Big news if successful … but no idea on what comes next.

[RainMaker]

It looks like Israel carpet bombed a large area of Southern Beirut in an attempt to kill Nasrallah. They used the 2000 pound bombs which is pretty crazy in a residential area. Suspected hundreds, perhaps thousands killed in the bombings.

No confirmation on whether they got Nasrallah or not. Rumors seem to be flying on both sides so it may take some time for an official statement. Regardless, all out war in the Middle East seems imminent. Going to be a chaotic times for the rest of the year. Will be interesting to see how this effects oil prices and other such things in the U.S.

[RainMaker]

Jesus fucking Christ. I have never seen anything like this in south Beirut, not since 2006. This is a carpet bombing of an area with hundreds of thousands of people.pic.twitter.com/tBYODZ71ep
— Séamus Malekafzali (@Seamus_Malek) September 27, 2024

[GrantDawg]

They are about to hit three more buildings in Beirut. They are warning people to leave the area at least 500m from those buildings. They say there is a storage facility for anti-ship missiles underneath those buildings.

[Edward64]

Going on now.

The IDF announces that Israeli aircraft are now striking three buildings in Beirut where Hezbollah is storing anti-ship missiles, after calling on residents of the area to move away from the targeted areas.

[GrantDawg]

When they said three buildings, I was thinking a compound like they just hit. These are actually in three separate districts.

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[RainMaker]

No evacuations for American citizens so far. Sort of surprising but also not really. Bush evacuated a lot in 2006. I don't know the totals but there are a lot of Americans there.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Some excitement from Israeli redditors that Nasrallah was targeted today. Big news if successful … but no idea on what comes next.

IDF believes Nasrallah is dead.

One day, the details of how Israel compromised Hezbollah's security will come out (and who). Be a fascinating read. It's obvious their intelligence overperformed against Hezbollah but failed miserably with Hamas.

Still counting up the bodies and I'm sure there were many innocents killed in the attack. Fair question if Israel should be targeting top enemy leadership meeting under civilian buildings even knowing there'll be a lot of collateral deaths.

Live updates: Beirut rocked by airstrikes Israeli official says targeted Hezbollah leader | CNN

“Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the Hezbollah terrorist organization and one of its founders, was eliminated by the IDF, together with Ali Karki, the Commander of Hezbollah’s Southern Front, and additional Hezbollah commanders,” the Israel Defense Forces said in a statement Saturday morning.
:
Israeli Air Force jets “conducted a targeted strike on the central headquarters of the Hezbollah terrorist organization, which was located underground embedded under a residential building in the area of Dahiyeh in Beirut,” the IDF said. “The strike was conducted while Hezbollah’s senior chain of command were operating from the headquarters and advancing terrorist activities against the citizens of the State of Israel.”

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Still counting up the bodies and I'm sure there were many innocents killed in the attack. Fair question if Israel should be targeting top enemy leadership meeting under civilian buildings even knowing there'll be a lot of collateral deaths.

My answer would be "no", but it tough for the US to make moral high-ground arguments on things we have done as well.

[GrantDawg]

Reading some people that know the region well, they are questioning how well and effectively Hezbollah can go on. They say Nasrallah was basically the only leader that could keep the organization together, and the one that Iran had the most faith in. Now in the matter of days they completely severed the head off the snake.

[GrantDawg]

They are saying there was also a General of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard killed in the strike.

[JPhillips]

At some point Israel is going to regret this strategy of fuck everyone we'll do whatever we want. That doesn't work well for a superpower, it certainly won't for a country dependent upon allies and goodwill.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Fair question if Israel should be targeting top enemy leadership meeting under civilian buildings even knowing there'll be a lot of collateral deaths.

One to which the only reasonable, rational, logical, and justifiable answer to is absofuckinglutely.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

They are saying there was also a General of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard killed in the strike.

Something tells me that Iran is busy finishing up on their nuke program.

I can't imagine all the wargaming scenarios going on at the Pentagon (and at IDF). I don't know who Kamala/Trump's Secretary of State will be, but that person will be busy.